Playbook PM: Fauci’s good and bad news on the pandemic

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Aug 04, 2021 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eugene Daniels, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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FULL APPROVAL COMETH — Finally, some good news in the Covid-19 realm: Sarah Owermohle and Adam Cancryn report that the FDA could approve the Pfizer vaccine "by early September."

"An FDA spokesperson declined to provide a specific timetable for the expected approval, but confirmed that the sharp rise in Covid-19 infections driven by the Delta variant spurred the agency to speed its work," the duo write. "[I]n private, the months-long process has frustrated some administration officials who believe there's little justification for such a lengthy wait, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The administration is also eager to use the full approval to undercut vaccine skeptics who have argued against getting the shot until the FDA formally endorses it."

That timeline matches up with what ANTHONY FAUCI told CNN today: that he "hopes" the full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine comes in the "next couple of weeks."

But Fauci is also sober-minded about what the nation is likely to face from Covid in the months ahead.

— "Remember, just a couple of months ago , we were having about 10,000 cases a day," Fauci said in a buzzy new interview with Michael Wilner at McClatchy. "I think you're likely going to wind up somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 cases" per day in the fall.

— Fauci also pointed out that with the length of time it takes people to become fully inoculated after a two-dose regimen, we won't see the impact for some time. "Even if we vaccinated everyone today, we're not going to see an effect until the middle to end of September," he said.

NEW POLL RESULTS — Who is being blamed for the increase in Covid cases throughout the country? According to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, 67% of voters say that unvaccinated Americans bear the blame — a bipartisan supermajority that included 77% of Democrats, 67% of independents and 58% of Republicans.

— 70% of voters claimed they are vaccinated, including 80% of Dems, 64% of independents and 63% of Republicans.

— Some good news for President JOE BIDEN: His approval rating is still clocking in at 52% overall, and 56% of voters approve of his handling of the pandemic. Toplines Crosstabs

BEGINNING OF THE END OF AN ERA: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted this morning to repeal the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force in Iraq. Republicans ROB PORTMAN (Ohio), RAND PAUL (Ky.) and sponsor TODD YOUNG (Ind.) joined Democrats in voting for the bill. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said he plans to bring it to a floor vote later this year. More from Andrew Desiderio

CUOMO LATEST — "Westchester County DA seeks evidence on Cuomo allegations for potential criminal probe," CNBC … "Manhattan D.A. to Look Into Cuomo Sexual Harassment Allegations," Bloomberg

— WaPo's Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1): "A few things I've picked up: Cuomo is unlikely to resign. His people were totally caught off guard by state trooper accusations & were not expecting report to come out yesterday. There is little belief among some of longest advisers that he can survive."

NOMINATIONS ADVANCING — "Senate panel advances Texans tapped to lead Census Bureau, ICE," Houston Chronicle: "While San Antonio native ROB SANTOS, Biden's nominee to lead the Census, advanced easily on a 10-3 vote, Republicans on the committee unanimously opposed Harris County Sheriff ED GONZALEZ's nomination to lead ICE — a sign Democrats may need to bring in Vice President KAMALA HARRIS to break a tie in the Senate and get him confirmed."

Good Wednesday afternoon. The Pentagon today identified the officer who was killed Tuesday as GEORGE GONZALEZ, an Army veteran who served in Iraq. More from NBC Washington

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TRUMP CARDS

FIVE YEARS AFTER THE 2016 CAMPAIGN — "Trump asks court to end House pursuit of his tax returns from IRS," CNN: "Former President DONALD TRUMP's legal team formally stepped into a long-running fight over a U.S. House request for his tax returns, claiming Trump's financial history is being unfairly pursued for political reasons by Democrats …

"While the pressure is heating up in the House Democrats' pursuit of Trump's tax information, the tax returns aren't likely to be given to Congress anytime soon -- and the new filing from Trump will likely prompt several new rounds of legal arguments. The move in court on Wednesday makes Trump a party in the lawsuit. For the past two years, his legal team was essentially on the sidelines as the House fought the case with the executive branch." The filing

THE ATTEMPT TO SUBVERT THE ELECTION — "Website Run by 'Dumbest Man on the Internet' Helped Fuel Trump's Effort to Cancel Democracy," by The Daily Beast's Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley: "The Gateway Pundit's small role in Trump's endeavor to weaponize the DOJ against the American electoral process underscores just how easily a discredited far-right media site established a pipeline to the decision-making of the then most powerful person on Earth. It also shows how this one website … managed to play a part in fueling the efforts that brought the country to the brink of democratic rupture.

"[D]uring the final weeks of his presidency, administration officials saw Trump on multiple occasions holding printed-out pages of Gateway Pundit articles in the White House, sometimes in the Oval Office. [A] former senior official recalled one instance when Trump handed them a page printed from the website, which nonsensically alleged massive pro-Biden fraud, and told the official to find out more and to do something about it."

DOJ DETAILS — "How a tiny legal office inside the Justice Department is tormenting Trumpworld," by Insider's Ryan Barber: "[T]he Justice Department has in recent months escalated its enforcement efforts, mostly notably with investigations and prosecutions of prominent Trumpworld figures suspected of monetizing their access to Trump's administration by working illegally for foreign governments and other overseas powers. …

"[Former FARA chief BRANDON] VAN GRACK, now a partner at the law firm Morrison & Foerster, told Insider that the Justice Department's approach to foreign influence had featured 'a little bit of everything.' 'There are prominent criminal cases moving forward, significant criminal cases being charged, and unprecedented resources and personnel being dedicated to it,' he said. 'From all directions, FARA is being enforced like never before.'"

INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR

LATEST TIMELINE — CNN's Manu Raju (@mkraju): "[South Dakota Sen.] JOHN THUNE told me that Rs haven't decided yet if they'd agree to cut off debate on Saturday and move infrastructure bill to a final vote. He said it'd depend 'if everybody feels like they've had amendment votes,' noting GOP leaders would take the temperature of the conference."

WATCH: Progressives are angsty over the bipartisan infrastructure bill: The Biden White House has been trying to keep both progressives and moderates happy, and they've done a pretty good job of it, until now. Ryan and transportation reporter Tanya Snyder discuss why his progressive base is upset with the new bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Ryan Lizza and President Joe Biden are pictured.

BOOM TIMES ON K STREET — "Prospect of massive economic packages unleashes lobbying bonanza in Washington," by WaPo's Tony Romm and Yeganeh Torbati: "Nearly 2,000 companies and organizations have lobbied Congress and the administration this year in an attempt to influence the contours of major new infrastructure spending, an effort that is sure to intensify … according to an analysis from the Center for Responsive Politics … Those groups collectively have spent more than $426 million in their lobbying efforts, which includes trying to sway lawmakers and regulators on far more than just infrastructure …

"The activity reflects a dramatic uptick from the same period one year ago … A push publicly and privately by conservative advocacy groups including FreedomWorks ultimately helped prompt a bipartisan group of senators to halt efforts to increase new funding for the Internal Revenue Service. … This year alone, more than 260 companies and other entities large and small have hired new lobbying firms in Washington specifically on infrastructure."

 

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THE EVICTION MORATORIUM

Schumer applauded Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) on the Senate floor this morning for her leadership in getting the moratorium: "She took her passion and converted it into effective action. Salute to her. It's a moment of history that shows when you persist, you can get things done." The video

TOO LITTLE TOO LATE? — "Last-minute eviction ban extension fuels confusion and is too late for some," by WaPo's Hamza Shaban, Abha Bhattarai and Marissa Lang: "[S]ome renters have already been evicted or could still be evicted in the next few days if they don't live in a county covered by the new eviction ban. …

"The ban is good news for renters behind on payments throughout much of Florida, the West Coast and the South … But the moratorium creates new geographic boundaries for evictions, sending some renters searching their county's level of community spread. … Housing advocates cheered news of an extension, even if it was narrower than they hoped."

THE WHITE HOUSE

TOP-ED — "Biden's Honeymoon Is Over, and He Knows It," by NYT's Thomas Edsall: "In the end, much of the dynamism that powers today's political competition comes back to — or down to — racial and cultural conflict. Can Biden find a redistributive workaround — and protect voting rights at the same time? The fate of the Democratic Party depends on it."

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — "Some 100,000 Green Cards at Risk of Going to Waste in Covid-19 Backlog," by WSJ's Michelle Hackman: "The situation complicates what has already been a yearslong wait for many of the 1.2 million immigrants — most of them Indians working in the tech sector — who have been waiting in line to become permanent residents in the U.S. and are watching a prime opportunity to win a green card slip away.

"U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the agency primarily in charge of legal immigration, started off its fiscal year in October 2020 with 120,000 more green cards than the 140,000 it typically hands out, a prospect that promised to put a meaningful dent in the yearslong backlog. But with less than two months left in the fiscal year, it is far from reaching that goal. … Any green cards that aren't rewarded by the end of September will expire."

PANDEMIC

INTERVIEW OF THE DAY — Rep. JULIA LETLOW (R-La.) sat down with "CBS This Morning" to talk about the death of her late husband, Rep.-elect LUKE LETLOW, from Covid-19 and to urge Americans to get vaccinated. It's worth a watch.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

CALIFORNIA CASH RACE — "Newsom and his allies raise tens of millions more than recall backers and GOP candidates," by L.A. Times' Seema Mehta and Maloy Moore: "Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM and his allies have raised more than $51 million to fight the attempt to recall him, more than twice as much as every major Republican candidate and pro-recall committee combined, according to new fundraising disclosure reports. …

"Among Republicans, businessman JOHN COX has raised the most money, $8.8 million, in his 2021 and 2022 gubernatorial accounts … [including] $7.6 million of his own money. … [Former San Diego Mayor KEVIN] FAULCONER has raised $3.4 million in his 2021 and 2022 accounts, the next largest amount. He is viewed as the establishment favorite. But he raised that sum over six months, while new contestant [LARRY] ELDER raised more than $1 million in the three weeks after he declared his candidacy. Olympian-turned-reality-television star CAITLYN JENNER … reported bringing in a little more than $750,000."

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE REVERSE BORDER CROSSING — "Mexico to sue U.S.-based gunmakers over flow of arms across border," by WaPo's Mary Beth Sheridan in Mexico City: "The unusual suit is expected to be filed in U.S. federal court in Boston, since some of the manufacturers are headquartered in Massachusetts … The suit — which seeks unspecified financial compensation from the companies — does not target the U.S. government.

"Mexican authorities believe U.S.-made weapons have fueled the explosive violence that has transformed parts of the country over the past decade. … A federal law that took effect in 2005 shields gun manufacturers from most civil liability claims, making it difficult for lawsuits like Mexico's to succeed."

RISING THREAT — "The Soleimani Assassination Was Supposed to Weaken Iraqi Militias. Instead, They're Flexing Their Muscles," by Simona Foltyn in Baghdad for POLITICO Magazine: "Since the assassinations of [ QASSEM] SOLEIMANI and [ABU MAHDI AL-]MOHANDIS, Iran-backed militias within the [Popular Mobilization Forces] have mobilized to avenge their leaders' deaths and found more sophisticated ways to target the increasingly besieged U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq …

"These shifts suggest that the assassinations, which the Trump administration claimed would establish 'real deterrence' against the militias, have failed to prevent further attacks on U.S. troops. Instead, the strike plunged Iraq into a fresh cycle of instability as the militias intensified and broadened their operations, while also consolidating their grip on power within the loose grouping of the PMF. … The fallout has laid bare the limitations of Iraqi security forces to keep the increasingly powerful and well-resourced militias in check as the United States downsizes its military presence in Iraq."

PULLOUT FALLOUT — "Blast in Afghan capital as Taliban claim attack on minister's compound," Reuters: "An explosion near the office of Afghanistan's main security agency wounded three people on Wednesday, hours after a bomb and gun attack on a minister's compound brought surging Taliban violence to the capital. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the late Tuesday attack on the home of acting Defence Minister BISMILLAH MOHAMMADI. … [A]t least eight civilians were killed and 20 wounded."

MEDIAWATCH

NEW PLAYER ON THE SCENE — "Buzzy media startup Puck launches in beta," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "The company debuted its landing page, puck.news, on Wednesday, and will officially launch its website in September. … The outlet has hired several big-name reporters ahead of its launch, all of which are considered founding partners at the company.

"That includes DYLAN BYERS as a senior correspondent … Byers was most recently a senior media correspondent for NBC News. … The company also hired Politico White House correspondent TINA NGUYEN as a Washington correspondent. … The company, which plans to mostly make money from paid memberships, is rolling out two tiers for paid memberships ahead of its September launch." The landing page

THE BEHEMOTH GROWS — "The New York Times Reaches 8 Million Subscriptions," by NYT's Edmund Lee: "[It] expects to add as many this year as it did in 2019, when President Donald J. Trump dominated headlines and a pandemic had yet to melt the global economy. The company estimates that it will have 8.5 million paid print and digital subscriptions by the end of 2021. … The Times Company reported modest growth in the April-to-June quarter — typically its weakest."

AWARDS SEASON — NBC's LESTER HOLT will be the 49th recipient of the National Press Club's Fourth Estate Award at an Oct. 20 gala. Announcement

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Brian Egan is now director for governmental affairs for the National Association of Bond Lawyers. He most recently was policy director for the National Association of State Treasurers, and is a National League of Cities alum. … Madeline Gale is joining the International Franchise Association as government relations coordinator. She previously was director of operations for Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jeffrey Last, health care legislative assistant for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and Emily Last, a funeral director in Annapolis, recently welcomed Frances Rose "Francie" Last. Pic Another pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Rokk Solutions' Varuna Bhatia

 

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California Today: Why Covid Took Off in California, Again

Wednesday: Not enough Californians are vaccinated to stop the spread of the Delta variant.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

It's Wednesday. Not enough Californians are vaccinated to stop the spread of the Delta variant. Plus, how to stay safe from infection.

Nurses in the I.C.U. at Providence Saint John's Health Center in Santa Monica with Alejandro Balderas, a 44-year-old patient who later died.Isadora Kosofsky for The New York Times

Good morning.

Between reinstated mask mandates and spiking coronavirus case numbers, this summer is starting to feel a little too much like 2020.

Even in California, a state with a vaccination rate well above average, the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has nearly doubled in the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's map of coronavirus spread shows California bathed in orange and red, signaling the highest levels of transmission.

So how did we get here?

Well, what's happening in California is a story playing out across the country. Summer ushered in more socializing and fewer restrictions, just as the extremely contagious Delta variant gained a foothold.

Andrew Noymer, a public health professor at the University of California, Irvine, employed a very California analogy to explain it to me: "Delta is a lightning strike and loosening restrictions is the wind" — and they have joined forces to create a threat like a dangerous wildfire.

Although 53 percent of California residents are fully vaccinated, better than most states, it has not been enough to prevent Delta from spreading. Even in San Francisco, which at 70 percent has one of the best vaccination levels among big cities, new coronavirus cases have increased 141 percent over the past two weeks.

"The Delta variant isn't hyperbole. It isn't public health people wringing their hands," Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, told me. "It's a game-changer."

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The Delta variant is so contagious that it has caused cases to spike like never before, Bibbins-Domingo said. Its proliferation also means that achieving herd immunity — the threshold of vaccinations and previous infections needed to halt a virus's spread — would most likely require vaccinations of at least 95 percent of people, she said.

But that doesn't mean vaccinations aren't helping now. People who already have received shots are far less likely to end up in a hospital if they contract the coronavirus. Nationwide, 97 percent of people hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated, according to the C.D.C.

So even as Delta spreads in California, the number of hospitalizations and deaths will be much lower than previous surges because more than 21 million Californians are vaccinated, said Dr. Timothy Brewer, an infectious-disease expert at the University of California, Los Angeles.

"The good news is: The vaccines are working," Brewer said.

Indoor dining at Swingers in Los Angeles, where masks are again required while waiting for food.Alex Welsh for The New York Times

How to stay safe if you're vaccinated

My colleague Tara Parker-Pope published a guide for navigating socializing and mask-wearing in this confusing phase of the pandemic. If you're wondering whether you can still hang out with your vaccinated friends indoors or if it's safe to travel, this is for you.

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I also asked the experts I interviewed how they have adjusted their behavior as coronavirus cases began to rise again in California. To my surprise, they all told me that since they're vaccinated, they haven't made major changes.

Indoor public spaces where people don't wear masks remain the most dangerous locations, they said. So Noymer began wearing a mask at the grocery store again and Bibbins-Domingo said she was thinking twice before eating inside restaurants, which she had been more comfortable doing earlier in the summer.

She and Brewer both said they have out-of-state travel plans that they don't currently feel compelled to cancel.

For more

  • Americans were promised that the pandemic would recede into the past and be replaced by a summer of joy. Instead, it has been a summer of confusion.
  • Is Los Angeles next? New York will be the first city in the nation to require that people who want to eat indoors or watch a movie in a theater show proof of vaccination.
  • "When will this ever end?" asked an I.C.U. nurse at a Santa Monica hospital, where numbers of Covid-19 patients are growing yet again.

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If you read one story, make it this

Nearly every line in this piece about repatriated Iraqi artifacts is a surprise.

The tale involves 17,000 looted antiquities from ancient Mesopotamia and also the evangelical Christian family that owns the craft store chain Hobby Lobby. I'll let you find out the rest.

The rest of the news

Merle Canfield assembling yard signs against the Sept. 14 recall election involving Gov. Gavin Newsom.Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press
CALIFORNIA
  • Recall election: Democratic leaders are concerned by the apathy of their party's voters regarding the governor's recall election. Polling shows that Republicans appear more eager to vote.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Covid spreading: While Marin County has a high vaccination rate, Covid-19 cases are currently surging in Marin City, where the vaccination rate is much lower. The San Francisco Chronicle explores the community's vaccine hesitancy.
  • McClatchy estate: Built in the 1930s, the McClatchy estate in Sacramento is for sale for the first time, for $2.5 million. The dining room features a mural depicting parts of state history, according to The Sacramento Bee.
  • Deadly lightning: A hiker was killed by lightning on Friday in a remote area near the John Muir Trail in the Sierra Nevada. Fatalities from lightning strikes are rare, with only 14 reported deaths in California from 1950 until April, writes The Associated Press.
  • Housing crises: The San Francisco Chronicle examines an urban exodus of Bay Area residents to small towns bordering wildlands, which are more likely to be directly affected by wildfires.
  • Indoor dining: Soleil Ho, a restaurant critic for The San Francisco Chronicle, writes about her "anticlimactic" experiences with providing proof of vaccination to eat indoors.

What we're eating

Summer pasta with zucchini, ricotta and basil.Karsten Moran for The New York Times

This lemony pasta with zucchini tastes like summer.

Tell us

We're soliciting travel tips to share in upcoming editions of the newsletter. Tell us about the best hidden gems to visit in California. Email us at CAtoday@nytimes.com with your suggestions.

And before you go, some good news

When a barn built in 1867 was threatened by the Dixie fire, eight men fought to save it. The barn, on Keefer Ranch in Plumas County, is believed to be the oldest still standing in the state.

Like much of California, the region has been hit hard by devastating wildfires in recent years. "We need to win one," one of the valiant men told The Chico Enterprise-Record.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Team track event (5 letters).

Steven Moity and Mariel Wamsley contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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