| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | INDICTMENT INCOMING? — Lawyers from special counsel JACK SMITH’s office today met with DONALD TRUMP attorneys TODD BLANCHE and JOHN LAURO, as the legal and political worlds brace for another possible criminal indictment against the former president, NBC’s Adam Reiss, Vaughn Hillyard and Rebecca Shabad report. The DOJ prosecutors have seemed to be barreling toward an indictment in recent weeks in their probe into the Jan. 6 insurrection and the efforts to overturn the 2020 election — though Trump said on Truth Social that the feds didn’t give notice in the meeting of a coming indictment.
|  “This progress wasn’t inevitable or accidental — it is Bidenomics in action,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | RECESSION FEARS LIFTING — The country’s second-quarter GDP growth rose to 2.4%, according to new Commerce Department data, leaping way ahead of economists’ 1.5% expectations in another surprising sign of the economy’s resilient health. Coming on the heels of yesterday’s comments by Fed Chair JEROME POWELL, the economic growth shocker indicates that the economy remains far from entering a recessionary danger zone. And the 2.4% figure, higher than the first quarter’s 2%, is a big shot in the arm for the Biden administration, which is increasingly trying to wield “Bidenomics” as a pre-election rallying cry. “This progress wasn’t inevitable or accidental — it is Bidenomics in action,” President JOE BIDEN said in a statement. Despite the Fed’s interest-rate-hike campaign to slay inflation, consumer spending continues to prop up the economy significantly and was one of the principal contributors to GDP growth, along with business investment and state/local government spending. With inflation slowing down and the labor market staying strong, many economists think the U.S. is out of the woods (for a while, at least). Details from the AP “This is really encouraging for the ‘soft landing’ story,” notes WaPo’s Heather Long: “consumer spending is *slowly* moderating. … Meanwhile, business fixed investment picked up (a sign businesses are optimistic).” One factor that’s helping: Even as the Fed raises rates, lots of consumer debt is locked into lower interest rates from years past, leaving many Americans somewhat insulated from the increases and able to keep spending freely, WSJ’s Rachel Louise Ensign reports. One factor that could hurt: “Restart of student loans clouds White House ‘Bidenomics’ push,” by Michael Stratford and Sam Sutton: “A range of economists and Wall Street analysts are predicting that consumer spending could take a hit as payments return for the first time since the pandemic reprieve began more than three and a half years ago.” SPENDING SHOWDOWN — It looks like intra-Republican disagreements will scuttle a House vote on the Agriculture-FDA appropriations bill until after the August recess, Meredith Lee Hill reports. Hard-right Freedom Caucus members are pushing for more drastic agriculture spending cuts, from which moderates have recoiled. And a squabble over abortion pills hasn’t been resolved either. That “portends a rocky September” for the chamber. The Military Construction-VA spending bill is still due for a vote in the House shortly this afternoon. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Meta: Field trips in the metaverse will take learning beyond the textbook.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | 2024 WATCH THE ELECTABILITY INVERSE — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ recent campaign struggles have gotten so bad that many Biden allies and top Democrats now would prefer to face off against him rather than Trump, Rolling Stone’s Asawin Suebsaeng and Tessa Stuart report. Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) thinks Trump is the only Republican who could win Pennsylvania, an aide says. “But underneath the liberal schadenfreude over DeSantis’ ongoing struggles during the primary is a sense of deep unease about the possibility of a 2016 redux.” THE RESET CONTINUES … “DeSantis set to start using new fundraising vehicle as campaign faces staff cuts,” by NBC’s Matt Dixon in Tallahassee, Fla.: “DeSantis’ presidential campaign is rebooting a pair of linked fundraising vehicles that have sat dormant since he launched his campaign.” … BUT IT GOES ONLY SO FAR: “DeSantis’s Campaign Reboot Faces Donor Skepticism and Deepening Divisions,” by NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher: “On the day his presidential campaign said it had laid off more than a third of its staff to address worries about unsustainable spending, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida began his morning by boarding a private jet to Chattanooga, Tenn. The choice was a routine one … but also symbolic to close observers of his struggling presidential campaign.” THE MEGADONOR GAME — A number of top donors willing to jump into the primary like NIKKI HALEY as a potential rival to Trump, The Dispatch’s David Drucker reports. Her political record and foreign policy experience are attractive to many of them — but they also say they aren’t willing to wait forever if she doesn’t catch fire. The first debate could be a pivotal moment for donors’ view of Haley. ON THE TRAIL — The Des Moines Register announced its lineup of presidential contenders taking part in the Political Soapbox at the Iowa State Fair. The list includes most of the field, from North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM on Aug. 10 to ASA HUTCHINSON on Aug. 19, though notably Biden, Trump, DeSantis and Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) are absent. — DeSantis will headline the Faith & Freedom BBQ in Anderson, S.C., on Aug. 28, AP’s Meg Kinnard reports from Columbia. It’s “billed as South Carolina’s largest annual gathering of Republicans.” THE SECOND-TIER SQUABBLE — After CHRIS CHRISTIE razzed Haley for not directly addressing the Trump factor in the campaign, Haley fired back today to Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser in Manchester, N.H. “I’m not obsessively anti-Trump like he is,” Haley said. “I talk about policies.” KNOWING STEVE LAFFEY — From Fort Collins, Colo., ABC’s Gabriella Abdul-Hakim profiles the longer-than-longshot GOP presidential contender, an outspoken former mayor of Cranston, R.I., who’s running as a true alternative to Trump and most of the contemporary Republican Party. “I stand for compassion, for the poor, and getting people out of poverty, and mostly enlarging the middle class,” Laffey says. But he’s raised just $19,000 for his bid.
| | | | ATTENTION PLAYBOOKERS! You need to keep up with the latest political news and nuggets, so here’s a juicy tip: You need to add California Playbook to your daily reading. We have a new team at the helm who are eager to take you inside the political arena in California, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley and throughout the Golden State! Get the latest exclusive news and buzzy scoops from the fourth largest economy in the world sent straight to your inbox. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | CONGRESS ZUCKERBERG BREATHES EASY — House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) announced today that the committee will hold off on a vote today to hold MARK ZUCKERBERG in contempt, after Meta provided documents the panel wanted. “To be clear, contempt is still on the table and WILL be used if Facebook fails to cooperate in FULL,” Jordan tweeted. NDAA ZOOMING AHEAD — The Senate could vote as soon as today on its version of the National Defense Authorization Act, per Connor O’Brien. Senators made a breakthrough on a group of amendments, and with the bill largely having avoided partisan fights, the Senate version is expected to sail through — setting up a fight with the House GOP. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO — “GOP crypto revamp moves ahead with Democrats divided,” by Eleanor Mueller: “The clash illustrates the fluid politics around crypto policy following a boom and bust.” McCONNELL HEALTH UPDATE — In the wake of yesterday’s incident at the Capitol, CNN’s Manu Raju has new reporting on a previously undisclosed fall Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL had earlier this year, as he was getting out of his car in snowy Helsinki. Sen. TED BUDD (R-N.C.) confirmed that McConnell fell in icy circumstances but was able to continue on. DIFI HEALTH UPDATE — During a roll call vote today on the Defense appropriations bill in committee, Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) appeared confused and started delivering remarks about the bill instead of just casting her vote. Watch it here ALL POLITICS MAKING A SPLASH — The LIBRE Action Initiative is ramping up its 2024 efforts, seeking to boost less Trumpy candidates in GOP primaries who can appeal to Hispanic voters, The Messenger’s Adrian Carrasquillo scoops. The Koch-backed, grassroots-focused, center-right group is stepping up its polling game and planning to double its paid staffers. Beyond the 12 states where LIBRE has already played in the past, it’s expanding to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and possibly Central Valley House races in California. In particular, the group is making noise about potentially supporting SAM BROWN in the Nevada Senate race. CHAOS IN MADISON — “Wisconsin’s Election Office In Limbo After GOP Tries To Force Out Its Director,” by Cameron Joseph in Bolts: “MEAGAN WOLFE has been the target of GOP Big Lie conspiracies. Democrats are now using a court ruling they previously decried to keep her in office past the end of her term.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | TRUMP CARDS THE SAVIOR OF TRUMP INC. — Last year, the little-known Axos Bank came to the rescue of Trump’s business empire as it teetered on a financial precipice, signing off on multiple loans that infused hundreds of millions of dollars into the company, WaPo’s Michael Kranish scoops from San Diego. The approvals came from GOP donor and Axos president/CEO GREGORY GARRABRANTS, a “blunt-spoken” leader whose moves “were vital to stabilizing [Trump’s] post-presidential finances and enabling him to mount the campaign” for the presidency. But in his first interview, Garrabrants says it wasn’t about politics — it was strictly business. The loans will be profitable for the bank, he says, though they could also draw Democratic scrutiny. POLICY CORNER MOONSHOT MOJO — “Biden announces an advanced cancer research initiative as part of the bipartisan ‘moonshot’ effort,” by AP’s Zeke Miller: “Biden’s administration on Thursday announced the first cancer-focused initiative under its advanced health research agency, aiming to help doctors more easily distinguish between cancerous cells and healthy tissue during surgery and improve outcomes for patients.” FOLLOWING THE MONEY — The bipartisan infrastructure law was meant to inject $14 billion into efforts to mitigate and deal with climate change, but states using the funds have some different ideas in mind, WaPo’s Ian Duncan reports. About $755 million of that money was moved last year to states’ all-purpose highway programs, undercutting Washington’s attempt to earmark it for climate-related projects. HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “Secretive Federal Agency’s Days of Killing Pets with Poison Bombs May Finally Be Ending,” by The Intercept’s Ryan Devereaux: “Banning the cyanide bombs planted throughout the American West — in service of the livestock industry — has been the Mansfield family’s mission.”
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS SWAMP — Book deals have become massive paydays for Supreme Court justices, most recently a previously unreported $3 million for Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON to write a forthcoming memoir, NYT’s Steve Eder, Abbie VanSickle and Elizabeth Harris reveal. The book deals are reported in disclosure forms and do not violate the law — nor are they a recent development on the court. Limits on outside income don’t apply to books. But they’re drawing increasing scrutiny amid invigorated ethics attention, particularly for the fact that the justices’ staffers often help research or even hawk them. WHAT JOE MANCHIN IS CELEBRATING — “Supreme Court clears path for Mountain Valley Pipeline construction to resume,” by Ben Lefebvre and Alex Guillén WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN — The liberal advocacy group Fix the Court may have broken the law itself by not disclosing activities that could be grassroots lobbying, the Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky reports. Ethics experts say Fix the Court “could open itself up to penalties from the IRS should the agency determine that it failed to report its apparent formal advocacy.” The group didn’t respond to requests for comment. AMERICA AND THE WORLD IMMIGRATION FILES — “Biden’s New Border Rules Don’t Deter Desperate Venezuelans,” by WSJ’s Michelle Hackman in Washington, Juan Forero in Las Tecas, Colombia, and Santiago Pérez in Tapachula, Mexico: “More than any other nationality, Venezuelans are flowing north through Central America, and many are attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border despite the tougher consequences, government data show. … [A] program the administration launched in January specifically targeted at migrants from three autocracies — Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela — hasn’t worked as well for Venezuelans as it has for the other two nationalities.” PLAYBOOKERS IN MEMORIAM — “Hugh Carter Jr., ‘Cousin Cheap’ as Carter White House cost hawk, dies at 80,” by WaPo’s Brian Murphy: “Hugh Carter Jr. … was seen as the ultimate technocrat. He was tasked with enforcing the frugal philosophy of the president, who once appeared on national television wearing a sweater to encourage Americans to turn down their heating and conserve energy. As a ‘special assistant’ to the president, Mr. Carter took the belt-tightening orders to heart.” BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Air Force’s Charlie McKell … House Rules’ Susan Phalen Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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