THE SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN IS HERE: It’s a jam-packed day in Washington. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is at the White House, and Democrats and Republicans appear only closer to shutting down the government ahead of their all-important meeting with President Donald Trump. Both sides are convinced the other will take the fall for the shutdown. There’s not enough Celsius drinks in the world for the next 48 hours and beyond. House Republicans kicked off the action this morning, with Speaker Mike Johnson holding a call with his conference, during which he urged Republicans to stick together to force Senate Democrats to either accept the seven-week stopgap funding bill that the House passed or to shut the government down, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. The crux of the Republican gameplan? Stay on message. But you won’t hear health care as a significant substance of the message, NBC’s Melanie Zanona reports. House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain shared polling with GOP members that advised against messaging over health care, which is a losing issue, and instead emphasized the economy as a winner. But there’s an overall air of confidence coming from the conference as Republicans attempt to push the blame squarely at Democrats’ feet. “If you want to win this shutdown, we have to stay on offense,” Majority Whip Tom Emmer said, per Fox News’ Liz Elkind. “We did the responsible, reasonable thing … we’re going to win this battle.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Fresh polling out today shows that with 48 hours to go, Republicans haven’t entirely won the blame game with voters. The new Morning Consult poll, shared exclusively with Playbook, reports that 45 percent of voters are more likely to blame Republicans if there’s a shutdown, compared to 32 percent blaming Democrats — a 13-point margin. That split gets wider when looking just at independent voters, who are more likely to blame Republicans by a 17-point margin. The poll surveyed 2,202 voters last week. See the full poll. “As is nearly always the case with shutdowns, all parties will come out looking worse, at least for a brief period of time,” Cameron Easley, Morning Consult’s head of political and economic analysis, told Playbook. “Republicans should also understand that there is a palpable perception among voters that their majority status in Washington renders them responsible.” Another notable bite: GOP voters are more likely to blame their own party than Democrats are. Of the people surveyed, 33 percent of GOP voters would blame Republicans, and 22 percent of Democratic voters say they would blame Democrats. Democrats have been banking their shutdown strategy on a similar thesis that voters will blame the party in power. Democratic leaders have seen a similar trend across their polling and heard from voters on the ground, a Democratic leadership aide told Playbook. “They’re in charge, they have the House, they have the Senate, they have the presidency,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” And Democrats are pushing forward on health care, as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters that not even assurances on a possible deal to extend the ACA tax credits would be enough to get them to sign on to the stopgap CR. “No one can trust their word on health care. Are you kidding me?” Jeffries said. House Democrats would need more than a handshake deal, POLITICO’s Nick Wu writes, but it may be up to Senate Democrats to make that negotiation. That said, a coalition of federal unions threw its support behind the Democrats’ position this morning, urging leaders to fight even if it means a shutdown, POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels reports. EXPECTATION SETTING: But the 3 p.m. meeting at the White House looks unlikely to provide fertile ground for compromise. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is poised to pressure Democrats to accept the stopgap funding bill as-is. “The president is giving Democrat leadership one last chance to be reasonable, to come to the White House today to try to talk about this,” Leavitt said on Fox News this morning. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune is out with an op-ed in WaPo this morning, saying Democrats have abandoned the negotiation process. “But there’s a difference between careful discussion and negotiation during the appropriations process and taking government funding hostage to jam more than $1 trillion in big-government spending in a funding bill designed to last mere weeks. Major decisions should not be made in haste,” Thune writes. What comes next: Don’t expect the White House meeting to be televised, with officials hoping to avoid a repeat of the dramatic 2018 discussions, per Meredith. House Democrats are meeting at 6 p.m. — and there’s still some Democratic senators to watch to see if they break away. House and Senate GOP leadership will hold a press conference Wednesday morning, per Punchbowl. And it’s possible the Senate will stick around for weekend work if a shutdown happens, Jordain writes. HAPPENING NOW: Trump and Netanyahu are due before the White House press following their bilateral meeting this morning. Trump still has an optimistic mindset on obtaining an agreement on his administration’s 21-point plan, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and colleagues reports. The United Arab Emirates this morning urged Netanyahu to accept Trump’s peace plan and to forget about plans to annex the West Bank, Reuters’ Samia Nakhoul report. Bound to come up: Netanyahu called Qatari PM Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani during his meeting with Trump this morning to apologize for violating Qatar’s sovereignty with its recent strike on Doha, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler scoop. This has been a key condition for Qatar to resume its mediating role. The Blair sitch project: “Tony Blair has never quit the Middle East. Now, he could run Gaza,” WaPo’s Steve Hendrix Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Are you a Hill staffer with thoughts on the shutdown? Drop us a line at abianco@politico.com and rumansky-castro@politico.com.
| 
