The first MAGA speaker?

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Oct 25, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine

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WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 24: U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) leaves a House Republican conference meeting in the Longworth House Office Building on Capitol Hill on October 24, 2023 in Washington, DC. Members of the GOP conference met for a closed-door vote to select their nominee for Speaker of the House to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who was ousted on October 4 in a   move led by a small group of conservative members of his own party. The Republicans nominated Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) today but he has already dropped out of the running after it became clear he could not secure enough votes to be elected Speaker. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

An unlikely candidate, newly-elected House Speaker Mike Johnson seems to be a leader born of circumstance. | Getty Images

Here’s one you probably didn’t have on your 2023 bingo card: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON.

After 22 days of speakerless chaos and division (as opposed to the normal chaos and division, which happens with a speaker), Johnson (R-La.) overcame weeks of GOP infighting to secure the speaker's gavel — a remarkable outcome for a representative who was first elected to the House in 2016 after a single two-year term in the state legislature.

The vote: 220 for Johnson; 209 for House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES.

The buildup: An unlikely candidate, the Louisiana Republican seems to be a leader born of circumstance. As reported this morning in Playbook, the fatigued GOP had been ready to lock down a new speaker, and Johnson has very few enemies on the Hill — unlike prior candidates JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) and TOM EMMER (R-Minn.)

In her nominating speech, House Republican Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) praised Johnson’s “deep faith,” calling him a “friend to many and an enemy to none,” and vowed that “today is the day we get this done.”

And they did. Republican holdouts quickly got in line this morning, including Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who announced his support for Johnson despite the Louisianan’s legal work to reject the results of the 2020 election. “What he did was he went to the courts,” Buck said. “That’s what the courts are set up for. It is absolutely appropriate.”

Prior to the vote, Johnson received the support — if not the formal endorsement — of former President DONALD TRUMP, who congratulated Jordan this morning on Truth Social: “My strong SUGGESTION is to go with the leading candidate, Mike Johnson, & GET IT DONE, FAST!”

MEANWHILE,  top Democrats are practically giddy at Johnson’s ascension.

“Mike Johnson, probably moreso than almost any other member of the House Republican Conference, wants to criminalize abortion care and propose a nationwide ban,” Jeffries said this morning.

Johnson passes House Republicans’ “extreme litmus test,” House Democratic Caucus Chair PETE AGUILAR said shortly before the vote, reiterating that Johnson supports a nationwide abortion ban without exceptions, overturning the 2020 election and opposing marriage rights for same-sex couples. (“Damn right,” one Republican member yelled back after Aguilar accused Johnson of trying to reject Electoral College votes.)

Remember that there were two giant electoral drags on the GOP during the 2022 elections: (1) denialism about the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and (2) policies on abortion rights that voters saw as overly restrictive or out of the mainstream.

Now, the Republicans have elected a speaker who Dems bet they’ll be able to use as an albatross around the neck of every Republican in a swing district or suburban seat. He was the architect of a lawsuit to overturn results of the 2020 race. He has supported abortion restrictions that make no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother. He fits neatly into their talking points about “MAGA extremism” in the GOP.

And given his brief time in Congress, they see the rare chance to define a leader of the opposing party before Washington (or the press) knows much of anything about him.

Lest there be any real dispute about what a Johnson speakership means, here’s Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) on STEVE BANNON’s podcast this morning: “If you don't think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to MAGA Mike Johnson shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you're not paying attention.”

Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line: birvine@politico.com.

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD 

LOOK WHO’S COMING TO DINNER — As the White House rolls out the red carpet for high-level meetings and a state dinner with Australian PM ANTHONY ALBANESE today, the two world leaders are expected to “share notes and compare details” about their interactions with China, WSJ’s Annie Linskey and Mike Cherney report:

“Australia is viewed as a linchpin to the U.S. effort to counter China. Washington has long eyed Canberra’s military bases, which are out of range of most Chinese missiles ... Australia also has key ties with island nations in the Pacific, where China has been trying to grow its influence in recent years.”

Related read: “China, a U.S. Ally and the Fight Over an Old Rusty Ship,” by WSJ’s Niharika Mandhana

LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST — Hours after the UN secretary general called for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel announced it has again launched “wide scale” strikes on the region, NYT’s Nadav Gavrielov reports.

2024 WATCH 

RESPONSE ON THE LEFT — As the violence ramps up in the Middle East, Biden confronts his own battle for domestic support, as a recent spike in support for Palestinians among progressives threatens the president’s "fragile alliance" with the left ahead of the 2024 election, WaPo’s Marisa Iati and Colby Itkowitz report.

The bigger picture: “With the election a year away, the war could well fade into the background by the time Americans cast their ballots. But in interviews, progressive voters and younger activists said they will not forget Biden’s full-throated support of Israel, and Arab and Muslim groups have also expressed anger about U.S. backing for Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza.”

AND ON THE RIGHT — “Support for Israel becomes a top issue for Iowa evangelicals key to the first Republican caucuses,” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont Newton, Iowa: “Since the Oct. 7 attack, Iowa’s evangelical pastors, faith leaders and rank-and-file caucus participants have been looking more closely at candidates’ statements, while ministers urge their congregations to keep those positions top-of-mind when weighing their options.”

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY — “Senate Democrats' campaign arm ups investments in two targets,” by NBC News’ Bridget Bowman: “The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing ‘seven figures’ in its ‘Republican accountability programs’ to support staffers on the ground across 10 battleground states … The DSCC's investment in Texas and Florida, where GOP Sens. TED CRUZ and RICK SCOTT are running for re-election, is a sign that the party is looking to go on offense even [as it] defends its slim majority next year.”

 

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CONGRESS 

LEW PROCEEDS TO CONFIRMATION VOTE — As expected, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved former Treasury Secretary JACK LEW’s nomination to serve as U.S. ambassador to Israel in a 12-9 vote this morning. While the vote was primarily along party lines, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) joined all Dems in voting for Lew’s confirmation. But GOP opposition to Lew’s previous work on a nuclear deal with Iran may still create some stumbling blocks ahead of his full confirmation vote, NBC News’ Frank Thorp V and Rebecca Shabad report.

“Lew is likely to get widespread support from Senate Democrats, but it is unclear how many Republicans he can win over. And while he may not need GOP backing if all 51 members of the Democratic Caucus back him, unanimous bipartisan support would allow for a faster confirmation vote.”

TRUMP CARDS

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — Fulton County Attorney FANI WILLIS is riding a "wave of momentum" after a succession of recent guilty pleas from defendants in her vast election fraud case against Donald Trump, NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim report.

The context: “With Mr. Trump and 14 of his co-defendants still facing trial in the case, the question of the moment is who else will flip, and how soon. But the victories notched thus far by Ms. Willis and her team demonstrate the extraordinary legal danger that the Georgia case poses for the former president. And the plea deals illustrate Ms. Willis’s methodology, wielding her state’s racketeering law to pressure smaller-fry defendants to roll over, take plea deals, and apply pressure to defendants higher up the pyramids of power.”

So what are the legal dangers to Trump? New York Mag’s Ankush Khardori drills down this morning on the impact that the recent plea deals could have on Trump’s case, noting that, “The plea deals are in fact bad news for Trump, though not nearly as bad as they could have been.”

While some of the recent deals mean Trump’s legal team missed the benefits of a trial, so far “the defendants have pleaded guilty to misconduct concerning fairly narrow elements of the indictment in factual terms and in certain cases to conduct with no clear connection to Trump himself.”

But, but, but … “It will be interesting to see whether — or perhaps when — this starts to change. Early plea deals in big cases tend to be the most generous because prosecutors want to incentivize people to come in and cooperate.”

Still, even with the latest momentum, Willis has a tough road in front of her to secure a conviction: “Persuading a jury of 12 people to convict Mr. Trump, a leading 2024 presidential candidate and the most polarizing figure in American politics, is a far different challenge than securing plea agreements, especially ones like the four so far that do not involve jail time,” Fausset and Hakim write.

Related read: “Judge Who Set Gag Order Considers More Punishment for Trump,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich and Kate Christobek

 

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE 2023 TEST RUN — “Youngkin bets 15-week abortion limit is winner in Virginia and beyond,” by WaPo’s Gregory Schneider and Michael Scherer: “If successful, [Virginia Gov. GLENN] YOUNGKIN’s reputation inside the party will probably rise … If he fails, festering strategic divisions among antiabortion activists and Republican political strategists are set to worsen.”

FROM THE GRANITE STATE — Former New Hampshire Gov. JUDD GREGG endorsed NIKKI HALEY’s bid for president. In an op-ed for the New Hampshire Union-Leader this morning, Gregg described Haley as “a leader in the tradition of RONALD REAGAN,” and suggested she “will lead our party in a way that will not only allow us to obtain the respect of the American people but will give opportunity, hope, and strong leadership to our country.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the 10th anniversary gala for the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, honoring Carlos Gutierrez, Mack McLarty, Carlos Vives and Amazon basin countries: Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), Adrienne Arsht, Fred Kempe, Jenna Ben-Yehuda, Luis Almagro, Gen. Laura Richardson, Rebecca Bill Chavez, Georgette Mosbacher, Capricia Penavic Marshall, Andrea Mitchell, Phil Rucker, Eric Martin, Steve Clemons, Mary Jordan, Gabe Gutierrez, Roy Blunt, Argentina Ambassador Jorge Argüello, Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Colombian Ambassador Luis Gilberto Murillo Urrutia, Costa Rican Ambassador Catalina Crespo Sancho, Dominican Republic Ambassador Sonia Guzman, Peruvian Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra, Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas, St. Kitts and Nevis Ambassador Jacinth Henry-Martin and Uruguayan Ambassador Andrés Augusto Durán Hareau.

Sony Interactive Entertainment PlayStation and the MLB hosted a reception at Silver Social to showcase its 2023 MLB The Show video game, featuring the inclusion of educational and play functions incorporating pioneering Black and Latino athletes of the Negro Leagues. The event was supported by the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, Jackie Robinson Foundation, Negro Leagues Family Alliance and the Entertainment Software Association. SPOTTED: Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) Stanley Pierre-Louis, Sonya Pankey Robinson, Bob Kendrick, Sean Gibson and Ramone Russell.

The Hill’s Bob Cusack moderated the “Entrepreneurship Engine: What’s Driving the Small Business Economy” breakfast discussion featuring Amway’s 2023 entrepreneurship report at the Hay Adams rooftop yesterday. SPOTTED: Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Andrew Schmidt, Neil Bradley, Michael Brownlie, Evelyn Barahona, Charles DeBow, Matt Haller, Karen Kerrigan, Tanya Hughes, Mandy Yamamoto, Stephanie Bell, Patrice Janene Cunningham, Danny Dubbaneh, Scott Ganz, Diana Rios Jasso, Bob Smith and David Stillerman.

— The National Women’s History Museum hosted a panel discussion last night on #MeToo movement featuring Ashley Judd, Diane Rosenfeld, Fatima Goss Graves and Amanda Nguyen, moderated by NWHM’s Frederique Irwin. SPOTTED: Kathy Spillar, Maria Patrick, Emily Martin, Elizabeth Vogel, Amanda Katz, Arlene Limas, Yehudit Sidikman, Naomi Brown, Jennifer Herrera, Christy Setzer, Nicholas Sensley, Marina Pisklakova-Parker, Kali Grant and Christina Serrano Taylor. 

— SPOTTED last night a With Honor Action gala honoring bipartisan veteran leaders in Congress at the Army Navy Club: Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Steve Womack (R-Ark.), Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Barbara Mikulski, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Gen. Charles Q. Brown and Margaret Brennan.

TRANSITIONS — Renée Gibson is now director of government affairs at the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association. She previously was director of state government relations at the American Traffic Safety Services Association. … Ashraf Faramawi is now VP of Civic Tech at BlueLabs Analytics. He previously was an associate at Booz Allen Hamilton. … Steven McCullough is now COO of Share our Strength. He previously was chief operating and equity officer at Communities in Schools.

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Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM included an incorrect rank for Gen. Anthony Zinni.

 

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California Today: Is the state’s fire season over?

So far, 2023 has been a relatively mild fire year for the state, but the final few months on the calendar have often proved to be dangerous ones.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Wednesday. Is California's fire season over? Plus, Alcatraz Island celebrates an anniversary.

Sarah Nguyen, a research data analyst, and Scott Slumpff, a battalion chief at Cal Fire, tracking wildfires in July.Ariana Drehsler for The New York Times

Anyone looking at data from California's fire season this year may be tempted to breathe a sigh of relief.

Only about 312,739 acres have burned in the state so far in 2023, compared with an average of 1.57 million acres by this point in the previous five years, according to Cal Fire, the state's fire agency. Even with a large, disruptive fire at the Oregon border in the summer, 2023 still ranks as a relatively mild fire year, a welcome change from 2020 and 2021, California's two worst wildfire seasons on record.

Summer is behind us now, but can we close the book on the 2023 fire season? Not quite yet, experts say.

California's fire season is increasingly stretching year-round, and some exceptionally devastating fires have erupted in October, November and December in recent years.

The deadliest wildfire on record in the state, the Camp fire, which destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 85 people, broke out on Nov. 8, 2018. One of the largest in terms of burned area, the Thomas fire in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, began on Dec. 4, 2017.

We haven't seen anything like that this year. The state had an exceptionally wet winter and an unusually cool spring and summer; on top of that, the unusual summer rains from Hurricane Hilary sharply reduced fire danger in Southern California.

Long-term forecasts suggest that the 2023 fire year will wind up looking much like 2022, another mild year, said Neal Driscoll, a geosciences professor at U.C. San Diego. But he warned that there are no guarantees.

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Dry, fast-moving Santa Ana or Diablo winds, especially if combined with a heat wave, could quickly parch vegetation and make any fires that break out more likely to balloon in size. Those winds are most common between September and May, and federal forecasts predict above-average temperatures for California for the next few months.

"We could put ourselves right back into a higher condition of fire threat," Driscoll told me. "I share your relief that it hasn't been more extreme so far, but I'm also very cautious to think things couldn't change."

Experts have warned that the rainfall this year has spurred so much plant growth that there will be a lot of vegetation ready to burn when the conditions eventually become right for fires. Park Williams, a climate scientist at U.C.L.A., told The Los Angeles Times that, given the damp conditions, it would take "a pretty big, bad-luck convergence of factors" to have a major wildfire before this year is over, but that he thought "it's much more likely that next year is the big fire danger year."

Even if this year remains mild, experts say that in general, warmer temperatures from climate change are expected to make wildfires in California burn bigger, hotter and faster than in the past, and that pattern still holds.

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"In the midst of a long-term trend which seems decidedly in the direction of worse fires, you can have a reprieve, just because the sky delivers just the amount of moisture at the right time," Julien Emile-Geay, a climate scientist at the University of Southern California, said. "Of course, it's very welcome when it happens. But it's not the basis of any long-term strategy."

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The police in Anderson said they took into a custody a woman who abducted her eight children from foster homes in Arkansas.Anderson Police Department, via Associated Press

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Southern California

  • Health officials in Pasadena reported a case of locally transmitted dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral illness that can be fatal.
  • The Writers Guild of America West sent a letter to its members that sought to explain the union's silence on the Hamas attack on Israel this month.

Central California

Northern California

  • Meta was sued by more than three dozen states for knowingly violating consumer protection laws by unfairly ensnaring children and deceiving users about the safety of its platforms.
  • An off-duty Alaska Airlines pilot who tried to shut off the engines during a San Francisco-bound flight told investigators that he thought he was having a nervous breakdown at the time and had consumed psychedelic mushrooms, court documents said.
  • California regulators ordered Cruise, a General Motors subsidiary, to stop its driverless taxi service in San Francisco after a series of traffic incidents, including a collision with a fire truck.
El Capitan at Yosemite National Park.Aubrey Trinnaman for The New York Times

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Alan Bricklin, who recommends a California classic:

"We have traveled to many other national parks here in the United States and have also traveled extensively abroad. While there are numerous great places to see in the United States and abroad, none can compare to Yosemite. There is so much to see there — mountains, meadows, vast vistas and varied terrain. You can hike across easy paths, scramble up large rock formations, visit magnificent waterfalls and stop for lunch along a variety of streams and lakes. There are so many places to hike, from easy to strenuous. Yosemite is great for all ages. If planning a visit, you should allow three full days. I remember one time when a visitor asked a ranger what she should do in the hour that she allowed for her visit. He told her to find a nice rock alongside a stream, then sit down and cry."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

Today we're asking about love: not whom you love but what you love about your corner of California.

Email us a love letter to your California city, neighborhood or region — or to the Golden State as a whole — and we may share it in an upcoming newsletter. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

Jim Wilson/The New York Times

And before you go, some good news

This week marks 50 years since Alcatraz Island, in San Francisco Bay, was opened to the public by the National Park Service.

Early yesterday morning, I took a boat from Fisherman's Wharf with other journalists to tour the island. Alcatraz has had many roles over the years: It was used as a U.S. military post from 1850 to 1934; became the birthplace of the American Indian Red Power movement after a Native occupation in 1969; and on Oct. 26, 1973, it began welcoming visitors as the newest addition to the Golden Gate National Recreation Area.

"It's been quite a wild ride," John Cantwell, a retired Alcatraz park ranger, said as the island's lighthouse rose behind him. The island was socked in by fog so thick that the San Francisco skyline, less than two miles away, could not be seen. Alcatraz, Cantwell said, is "a place where natural wonder and even inspiration can be found."

Alcatraz's most famous (or perhaps infamous) identity, as a federal prison that once held Al Capone and other notorious prisoners, lasted only from 1934 to 1963. Cantwell, who retired in 2021 after working on Alcatraz for 30 years, joked, "I did more time than any convicts or correctional officers on the island."

I learned some other fun trivia during my visit to Alcatraz: The island's lighthouse, built in 1854, was the first on the Pacific Coast. The filmmaker George Lucas visited Alcatraz soon after it opened to the public in the 1970s and recorded the sound of cell doors slamming shut; he then used the sound in the Star Wars films whenever Darth Vader's star cruiser closed its doors.

When the island was a prison, families of staff members lived permanently on the island, including 75 children. Among them was Jolene Babyak, who recalled playing on the island with the other children, taking the ferry to the city to go to school, and bringing dates back to their strange, isolated island world.

"I got my first kiss on Alcatraz," said Babyak, who has written extensively about her childhood on the island. "It was a wonderful place to grow up."

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Maia Coleman, Briana Scalia and Geordon Wollner contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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