| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  The next big indicator for Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be next week’s consumer inflation report for February. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | JOBS DAY — The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February, 38% higher than economists expected and another sign of the economy’s ongoing resilience. The robust number, like most good economic news these days, amounts to a double-edged sword: It’s fresh evidence that a recession remains distant, as does the end of the Fed’s interest rate hikes. The big hiring surge coincided with an increase in the unemployment rate, from 3.4% to 3.6%, partly attributed to more Americans reentering the labor force and searching for work. The labor market is clearly remaining strong, despite the central bank’s moves to raise rates in the hopes of tamping down inflation. That’s good news for Americans finding work — but less salutary for regulators trying to steer the economy to a soft landing. But “[s]ome economists pointed to other data in Friday’s report that suggested that the job market, while still hot, may be better balancing employers’ need for workers and the supply of unemployed people,” AP’s Christopher Rugaber writes. Wages rose 0.2% month over month, the lowest gain in a year. The next big indicator for Fed Chair JEROME POWELL will be next week’s consumer inflation report for February. If prices remain stubbornly high, Powell may opt to crank interest rates up even higher, as he indicated to Congress in testimony this week. President JOE BIDEN celebrated the jobs report in remarks from the White House today, saying he was especially chuffed that more people were coming back into the labor market. “Our economy is moving in the right direction,” he said. “It’s not just good numbers: People can feel it.” Of course, Biden also took the opportunity to criticize Republicans: “The biggest threat to our recovery is the reckless talk [from] my MAGA friends. … They’re threatening to default.” And he dinged House Republicans for delaying their budget proposal. “Doesn’t sound like they’re on the level yet,” he riffed. BUDGET BURST — The House Freedom Caucus put a major new ultimatum today on the debt ceiling, laying out a steep set of demands to earn their votes. The far-right group’s planks include $130 billion in spending reductions, tougher work requirements on federal aid to the poor, capping future budgets for federal agencies at fiscal 2022 levels, clawbacks of federal spending on climate and the IRS, and the end of Biden’s student loan relief plan. The upshot here is not that these plans will become reality — many of them are nonstarters with Democrats, of course — but that Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and Washington writ large will have a very tough time marshaling the votes to lift the debt limit and avert default, as WaPo’s Tony Romm, Jeff Stein and Marianna Sotomayor write. How much can McCarthy talk them down, or peel off Freedom Caucus members, or find the votes elsewhere? But, but, but: There may be more wiggle room than meets the eye. “Who said red lines? Did anybody say red lines?” caucus leader Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) told Jennifer Scholtes and Sarah Ferris. Biden’s response: “We just have a very different value set.” BREAKING — “Silicon Valley Bank seized by FDIC as depositors pull cash,” by AP’s Ken Sweet: It’s “the largest bank failure since Washington Mutual during the height of the 2008 financial crisis. … The bank had $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as the time of failure, the FDIC said in a statement. It was unclear how much of deposits was above the $250,000 insurance limit at the moment.” Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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See the impact. | | | 2024 WATCH CAUCUS CLUES — Few polls in America are as hotly anticipated as ANN SELZER’s Iowa surveys — and her latest has some warnings, as well as signs of strengths, for DONALD TRUMP ahead of the Feb. 5, 2024, caucuses, per the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel and Francesca Block. Though Trump has roughly equivalent favorability ratings to Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, just 47% of Iowa Republicans say they would definitely vote for him in the general if he’s the GOP nominee — down from 69% in 2021. Firm opposition to Trump remains low among Republicans, but “there’s nothing locked in about Iowa for Donald Trump,” Selzer says. Former VP MIKE PENCE has growing unfavorable numbers, though Iowa Republicans still like him overall, while NIKKI HALEY is relatively unknown in the state. DeSantis is already getting nice headlines from his Iowa swing today, as the Register’s Pfannenstiel writes that he found long lines and an excited reception in Davenport. He got Iowans on their feet applauding for various fronts in the culture war, including “gender ideology” in schools and flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. And amid questions about his personal touch on the campaign trail, DeSantis held babies and took selfies with supporters. One former Trump supporter is making the pitch for DeSantis: Former Rep. LOU BARLETTA (R-Pa.) tweeted this morning, “Come on Ron, your country needs you!” MORE POLITICS THE NEW NORMAL — “No Rest Between Censuses for Congressional Mapmakers,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein: “[A] string of lawsuits and in-the-works state referendums are poised to redefine the battles over state legislative and congressional lines and leave the country in a state of perpetual redistricting. … [The National Democratic Redistricting Committee] is changing its leadership for the first time since its formation in 2017. KELLY BURTON, the committee’s president, is leaving to join its six-member board and is being replaced by JOHN BISOGNANO, who has been executive director.” MIDTERM AUTOPSY — FiveThirtyEight is out with updated pollster ratings after the 2022 cycle. Their top-line takeaway is that the polls were unusually accurate last year, especially in House races, with little partisan bias in either direction, Nathaniel Rakich writes. Suffolk University and Siena College/NYT Upshot were the most accurate pollsters, while several GOP-affiliated firms were the least accurate, overestimating Republicans’ support. JOE TRIPPI OVER HIS SKIS — After Chicago mayoral candidate PAUL VALLAS featured footage BILL CLINTON praising his work in 1999, a Clinton rep told Chris Cadelago that he was surprised, didn’t approve the ad and isn’t endorsing in the race.
| | | | We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today. | | | | | CONGRESS ORIGIN STORY — The House voted unanimously this morning to send a bill to Biden’s desk that would require the DNI to declassify information on the origins of the pandemic. The Senate has already also passed the bill without dissent. More from CNBC MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — Sen. JOE MANCHIN’s (D-W.Va.) open season on the Biden administration continues apace with a new op-ed in the Houston Chronicle this morning: He declares he won’t move forward LAURA DANIEL-DAVIS’ nomination as assistant Interior secretary, and he takes Biden to task for framing the Inflation Reduction Act as climate change legislation. “Going forward, each and every proposed nominee I will review will be judged through one prism,” he warns: “Are they political partisans first or Americans first?” Related read: “Will Daniel-Davis ever get confirmed at Interior?” by Emma Dumain of POLITICO’s E&E News FRIENDLY FIRE — House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) is facing criticism from the right for his leadership and handling of the select weaponization subcommittee, WaPo’s Jacqueline Alemany reports: “Critics say the committee has been too slow to staff up, insufficiently aggressive in issuing subpoenas for interviews and testimony, and lacking in substance. Jordan and his allies have aggressively pushed back at the criticism, arguing he is taking on an unprecedented investigatory task that spans multiple government agencies.” TRUMP CARDS THE INVESTIGATIONS — Bloomberg’s Zoe Tillman highlights an unusual small-world connection: Special counsel JACK SMITH was a colleague of JAMES TRUSTY, one of Trump’s lawyers, for years at the Justice Department. “[T]he two section chiefs were close and supportive, known to joke around at meetings, former colleagues say. They won major cases and also weathered setbacks and controversies.” Those who know both Smith and Trusty say the men have similar temperaments, and the shared history could make a difference as the Trump probes continue. (Trusty also has ties to special counsel ROBERT HUR, who’s overseeing the Biden classified documents investigation.) JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH AT THE PROUD BOYS TRIAL — “Proud Boys deployed foot soldiers in sedition plot, Feds say,” by AP’s Michael Kunzelman: “As they wrap up their seditious conspiracy case, prosecutors are arguing that Proud Boys chief ENRIQUE TARRIO and other leaders of the group handpicked and mobilized a loyal group of foot soldiers — or ‘tools’ — to supply the force necessary to carry out their plot to stop the transfer of power from Donald Trump to President Joe Biden after the 2020 election. Defense attorneys have dismissed the ‘tools’ theory as a novel, flawed concept with no legal foundation.” VALLEY TALK TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — A former TikTok employee is privately telling Congress about data privacy worries at the company, “pointing to evidence that could inflame lawmakers’ suspicion of the app,” WaPo’s Drew Harwell reports. The person, who worked as a risk manager for the app, is warning that the company’s much-touted restructuring might not suffice to protect U.S. user data from ByteDance employees in China. TikTok says he misunderstands their plans. THE WHITE HOUSE SHRINK BACK BETTER — Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig notes an interesting dynamic that highlights Biden’s tack toward the center these days: Many of the revenue raisers in his new budget proposal are cribbed right from his erstwhile Build Back Better plan. But now they’re pitched as measures to shrink the deficit, not to expand the social safety net.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | MEDIAWATCH SURVIVAL STORY — “‘Just Do It, No Delay’: Inside the Secret Mission to Evacuate an Injured Fox News Correspondent from Ukraine,” by BENJAMIN HALL in an excerpt from his new memoir, “Saved” … Plus, ICYMI: Hall remembers his colleague PIERRE ZAKRZEWSKI in another excerpt for People. DON’T SHOOT — “The Messenger, a Media Start-Up, Aims to Build a Newsroom Fast,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin: “In May, [JIMMY FINKELSTEIN] plans to introduce The Messenger, a news site that will cover politics, business, entertainment and sports. Financed with $50 million in investor money, the site will start with at least 175 journalists stationed in New York, Washington and Los Angeles, executives say. But in a year, Mr. Finkelstein said, he plans to have around 550 journalists … The site will be free and supported by advertising, with an events business to follow.” Among the initial hires: DAN WAKEFORD, MARTY KADY, MARY MARGARET and NEETZAN ZIMMERMAN. PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a fundraiser yesterday for the DCCC and the House Judiciary Dems, hosted by Norberto Salinas, Sydney Gallego and Joe Harris: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Lou Correa (D-Calif.), Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), Ashley Hayes, David Shahoulian, Michone Johnson Ingraham, Anna Kain, Stephanie Peters, Jessica Vallejo, Anais Carmona, Morgan Reed and Noel Perez. — Warner Bros. Discovery hosted a screening of “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” at the Motion Picture Association last night, along with the Family and Youth Initiative. A panel discussion on foster youth issues moderated by Faithe Herman featured Congressional Caucus on Foster Youth co-chairs Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Gwen Moore (D-Wis.), and Kayla Young. SPOTTED: Rebecca Avitia, Patrick Boland, Joel Brubaker, Maria Cardona, Estuardo Rodriguez, Susan Punnett, Brian Truitt, Mila Venugopalan and Alexa Verveer. — Nelson Cunningham hosted a party last night at his Georgetown house for Claire Kaiser’s new book, “Georgian and Soviet: Entitled Nationhood and the Specter of Stalin in the Caucasus” ($43.95), featuring the author in conversation with Anya Schmemann. SPOTTED: John Negroponte, Jack Bartling, Lee Feinstein, Thomas Firestone, Ed Gresser, Sahar Hafeez, Mike Kaiser, Khatuna Kveselava, Eric Lohr, Maryam Mujica, Josef Skoldeberg, Astri Kimball Van Dyke and Jonathan Winer. — German Ambassador Emily Haber feted the House Chiefs of Staff Association at her residence’s famed Berlin Bar yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Mitchell Rivard, Jonathan Day, Paige Hutchinson, Chris Crawford, Amy Soenksen, Rachel Harris, Yardena Wolf, Madison Nash, Matt McMurray, Jaryn Emhof, Jake Olson, Chad Obermiller, Jason Galanes, Joe Goldberg, Sally Fox and Yuri Beckelman. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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