| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  The opinion from Chief Justice John Roberts maintains the right of state courts to review state legislatures’ laws for federal elections. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | DEMOCRACY ON THE DOCKET — The Supreme Court today rejected the “independent state legislature theory” with a 6-3 ruling in Moore v. Harper, foreclosing what experts had warned would be a radical way for state legislatures to amass unfettered power over elections. The ruling: The opinion from Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS, who was joined by the court’s three liberals and Justices AMY CONEY BARRETT and BRETT KAVANAUGH, maintains the right of state courts to review state legislatures’ laws for federal elections. “The Elections Clause does not insulate state legislatures from the ordinary exercise of state judicial review,” Roberts writes. Read the full decision here The context: North Carolina Republicans had sought to overturn that precedent in a case that centered on the state’s congressional map, employing what was once a fringe conservative theory in an attempt to upend the balance of power over election rules. Legal activists on the right had sought to empower state legislatures further, while opponents warned that a radical change could give legislatures the unchecked ability to gerrymander and more. Though its principal application would have been for election laws and redistricting, some DONALD TRUMP allies tried to wield the theory in their efforts to overturn the 2020 election as well. The surprising part: ISLT’s prospects had looked dim at oral arguments, but the full-throated ruling against it on the merits still came as something of a consequential surprise, as some observers had expected the court might simply rule the case moot and sidestep the bigger question. In nuanced dissents, that is in part where Justices CLARENCE THOMAS, SAMUEL ALITO and NEIL GORSUCH came down — and even they did not issue complete endorsements of the independent state legislature theory. The political implications: The ruling, which largely maintains the status quo, is more notable for the changes it will prevent than for the changes it will inspire. In North Carolina, where the state supreme court flipped last year to conservative control, the Republican majority has already overturned its previous ruling and determined that it won’t check any partisan gerrymandering from the legislature. (Expect a new, more GOP-friendly map there soon.) But the Roberts decision could give Wisconsin and New York more of a green light to draw new maps favorable to Democrats. The makeup of both states’ supreme courts has shifted recently to the left, which opens the door for them to undo a Republican gerrymander (in Wisconsin) or impose a Democratic one (in New York). That said, such interventions themselves could end up back at the Supreme Court: Roberts cautioned state judges not to go too far, as Zach Montellaro and Josh Gerstein report. Speaking of redistricting: Alabama Gov. KAY IVEY today teed up a special session of the state legislature July 17 to create new congressional district boundaries, after the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this month required the creation of a second majority-Black House seat in the state. More from WFSA-TV The Supreme Court’s next opinions, as it barrels toward the end of its term, will come Thursday. NOT READY FOR PRIMETIME — Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ had a bit of a GARY JOHNSON/Aleppo moment on HUGH HEWITT’s show today, raising questions about how prepared he is to tackle foreign policy matters on the national stage. Here’s the exchange: Hewitt: “Will you be talking about the Uyghurs in your campaign?”
Suarez: “The what?”
Hewitt: “The Uyghurs.”
Suarez: “What’s a Uyghur?”
Hewitt: “OK, we’ll come back to that. Let me — you won’t be — you’ve got to get smart on that.” At the end of the interview, Suarez said, “I’ll look at what a — what was it, what did you call it, a ‘Weeble?’” LOOK WHO’S BACK — The White House announced that President JOE BIDEN would host BARACK OBAMA for lunch today. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | 2024 WATCH THE QUOTE HEARD ROUND TRUMP WORLD — Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY today expressed confidence that any of the GOP candidates can beat Biden in a general — but his certainty about Trump’s chances sounded less than ironclad. “Can he win that election? Yeah, he can,” he said on CNBC. “The question is, is he the strongest to win the election? I don’t know that answer.” That is not sitting well in Trump world, NYT’s Jonathan Swan notes. CNN’s Kristen Holmes describes them as “outraged.” WARNING SIGN FOR BIDEN — The progressive group Way to Win is warning the Biden team and top Democrats that its focus groups show Biden slipping among crucial Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, The Messenger’s Adrian Carrasquillo reports. In particular, Biden has major work to do with these voters on the economy and crime, as respondent after respondent says his presidency hasn’t done anything that’s directly helped them. Way to Win says it’s surprisingly easy to sway these voters once they’re presented with a list of Biden accomplishments. But overall, organizers in these states say “the focus groups about Biden’s vulnerability are spot on, and underscore what they’ve been hearing in their communities.” POLL OF THE DAY — As Trump and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS head to New Hampshire today for dueling events, a new Saint Anselm survey finds Trump growing his advantage by 10 points in the state, leading DeSanis 47% to 19%. It’s the first survey the pollster has taken since New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU announced he wouldn’t run for president. After DeSantis, it’s CHRIS CHRISTIE at 6%, NIKKI HALEY at 5% and Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) at 4%. ON THE TRAIL — DeSantis and Haley will speak at Rep. ASHLEY HINSON’s (R-Iowa) annual “BBQ Bash” in August, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. Hinson has invited all the GOP presidential contenders. TALKING TOUGHER — “Haley hits Trump for ‘moral weakness’ on China,” by NBC’s Ali Vitali, Liz Brown-Kaiser and Brennan Leach TRUMP CARDS NAUTA CHANCE — The arraignment of WALT NAUTA, the Trump aide charged alongside the former president in the federal classified documents case, was postponed until July 6 after storms prevented Nauta from traveling to Florida today, per CNN’s Hannah Rabinowitz, Katelyn Polantz and Jeremy Herb. Nauta is also still absent an attorney who can practice in the district, which has delayed his plea in the case.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | MORE POLITICS TROUBLED LEGACY — A major new Reuters analysis examines the extensive lineup of top American politicians whose family lineages can be directly traced to slave-holding ancestors. The list includes every living president except Trump, two Supreme Court justices, 11 governors and 100 members of the last Congress. The examination “explores what it may mean for them to learn — in personal, specific and sometimes graphic ways — the facts behind their own kin’s part in slavery.” Most of the politicians whose ancestors are implicated don’t want to talk about it. CONGRESS BECOMING MR. YES — Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) has gotten some blowback from some of his fellow hard-line conservatives for voting yes on the debt ceiling bill. But he tells Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig that protest votes against legislation need a clearer strategy to extract concessions. As for RUSSELL VOUGHT’s criticism of him? “That was low-class, I thought,” Massie says. “First time there was a hiccup, he’s decided everybody who’s not on his side is a sellout, which is completely ridiculous. I would never say that about anybody in here based on one vote, or even three votes.” DESIGN DISPUTE — Congressional Republicans are resurrecting a Trump-era drive to establish classical architecture as the preferred style for new federal buildings, Bloomberg’s Kriston Capps reports. In the waning days of his administration, Trump issued an executive order calling for the buildings to be “beautiful.” The Hill GOP’s proposed language would go further by mandating classical design for federal D.C. projects and restricting modernist architecture like brutalism. There doesn’t appear to be any Democratic support yet. JUDICIARY SQUARE MORE FROM SCOTUS — “Supreme Court rules for online stalker convicted of making ‘true threats,’” by NBC’s Lawrence Hurley: “On a 7-2 vote, the justices ruled that the jury should have been required to make a finding about whether he intended his comments to be genuine threats.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Though Biden has lately tried to tamp down on tensions with China, American public opinion has turned sharply negative against the country, complicating Biden’s options and offering “striking similarities” to how the U.S. viewed the Soviet Union in the 1940s lead-up to the Cold War, NYT’s Ian Prasad Philbrick reports. THE NUCLEAR OPTION — U.S. officials are planning to send the nation’s largest nuclear submarine to the Korean Peninsula, in the “first substantial payout,” from the nuclear arms accord negotiated by President Biden and South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL earlier this year, WSJ’s Timothy Martin reports. GOOD SURVEY FOR THE WHITE HOUSE — “International Views of Biden and U.S. Largely Positive,” via Pew’s Richard Wike, Janell Fetterolf, Moira Fagan, Sarah Austin and Jordan Lippert: “A median of 59% [across 23 countries] give the U.S. a favorable rating, including around seven-in-ten or more in Poland, Israel, South Korea, Nigeria, Japan and Kenya. Hungary is the only country surveyed where fewer than half see the U.S. favorably.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY LEADING BY COUNTER-EXAMPLE — “‘I don’t want to become San Francisco’: Urban woes spur state action on housing,” by Jordan Wolman: “While the city’s problems have long been red meat for Republicans, they’re also inspiring Democrats across the country to spend political capital on tackling housing affordability issues in their own states.” MEDIAWATCH BOOK CLUB — Here come the TUCKER CARLSON tomes. WSJ’s Jeffrey Trachtenberg rounds up what’s in the works: CHADWICK MOORE will publish “Tucker,” for which he got extensive access to Carlson, from conservative publisher All Seasons Press next month. JASON ZENGERLE is working on “Hated by All the Right People” from Little, Brown at a date TBD. And though MIRANDA DEVINE was working on an authorized biography of Carlson from HarperCollins, that plan has been scuttled since he was fired from Fox News.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Laura Schiller is leaving the Transportation Department, where she has served as chief of staff since the first month of the administration. She is a Barbara Boxer, Amy Klobuchar and Clinton White House alum. TRANSITIONS — Jennifer Wieroniey is now director of federal government affairs at Michelin. She previously was executive director of the American Association of Settlement Consultants. … Lilly Gillespie is now a senior research analyst at the RXN Group. She previously was a research analyst at Public Opinion Strategies. WEEKEND WEDDING — Taylor LaJoie, legislative assistant for Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), and Jacqueline Fowler, director of member relations at the Conservative Partnership Institute, got married Friday at St. Peter’s Catholic Church, with a reception at the Oxon Hill Manor. They met through work on the Hill. Pics by Tiffany Coutris … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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