| | | | |  | | By Bethany Irvine | | | |  As he ramps up his bid for a second term, President Joe Biden has lost a significant amount of support from Black and Hispanic voters since 2020. | AP | IS SANTOS EYEING A GUILTY PLEA? — “A new federal court filing in the criminal case against lying Rep. GEORGE SANTOS suggests that the first-term Republican may be mulling a guilty plea,” writes NY Daily News’ John Annese. “In a motion filed Tuesday asking to push back Santos’ Thursday court appearance, federal prosecutors wrote that the government and Santos “are engaged in discussions regarding possible paths forward in this matter.” WHAT THE SENATE IS READING — “Capitol doc: McConnell tests show no evidence of seizure disorder, stroke, Parkinson’s,” by Burgess Everett WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS READING — As he ramps up his bid for a second term, President JOE BIDEN has lost a significant amount of support from Black and Hispanic voters since 2020, NYT’s Nate Cohn writes this morning in a must-read analysis. The gist: “Mr. Biden’s tepid support among these voters appears to be mostly responsible for the close race in early national surveys, which show Mr. Biden and [former President DONALD] TRUMP all but tied among registered voters even as Mr. Biden runs as well among white voters as he did four years ago,” Cohn writes. A look at the numbers:
- Biden leads Trump just 53 percent to 28 percent among registered nonwhite voters in a compilation of NYT/Siena College polls from 2022 and 2023.
- “Biden’s weakness among nonwhite voters is broad, spanning virtually every demographic category and racial group, including a 72-11 lead among Black voters and a 47-35 lead among Hispanic registrants.”
- Biden’s “lead among those [who voted in 2020 or 2022] could grow further, to 63-29, if undecided and dissenting voters are assigned to the candidate whom they said they backed in the last presidential election. … Yet even after allocating the remaining undecided voters, these tallies might still be the worst for a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since WALTER MONDALE in 1984.”
- “Overall, the president’s approval rating stands at just 47 percent among nonwhite voters in Times/Siena polling over the last year; his favorability rating is just 54 percent.”
The really big picture: “If the gap persists until the election, it will raise the possibility that the political realignment unleashed by Mr. Trump’s brand of conservative populism has spread to erode the political loyalties of working-class voters, of all races, who were drawn to the Democrats by material interests in an earlier era of politics.” WHAT THE VP’S OFFICE IS READING — The decades-long frenemyship between San Francisco natives KAMALA HARRIS and GAVIN NEWSOM is headed for another collision as the California governor “becomes a predominant surrogate for the Biden-Harris reelection campaign,” The Messenger’s Amie Parnes and Dan Merica report — a role that will further heighten his national profile even as some in Harris’ orbit are uneasy with the likelihood that Newsom is setting himself up for a future run for national office. “That unease does not extend to the Biden campaign, however, where operatives are pleased with the governor’s work and have been routinely made aware of his media appearances on behalf of the campaign,” Parnes and Merica write. “Part of the problem is that while Newsom has found success, Harris has largely failed to find her footing as vice president. But few believe the frustration is coming from Harris directly.” COURT (AGAIN) STRIKES DOWN ALABAMA MAP — “A three-judge panel has struck down Alabama’s congressional map on Tuesday, after GOP state lawmakers refused a court mandate to draw a second majority-Black district,” Zach Montellaro reports. “An independent court-appointed expert will now draw Alabama’s congressional map for the 2024 election.” TRUMP CARDS — The trial of former Trump trade adviser PETER NAVARRO is underway today after a federal judge rejected Navarro’s earlier bid to side-step contempt charges related to the House Jan. 6 investigation by claiming his former boss invoked executive privilege to keep him from testifying. Already, there were a few hiccups with jury selection, Kyle Cheney reports, noting that one potential juror said she recognized the judge “because he threw her fiancé in jail on a conspiracy charge,” while another’s children attend the same school as the prosecutor's kids. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line: birvine@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Amazon: Small and medium-sized businesses are at the heart of the American economy.
At Amazon, we know the more we help our small business sellers grow, the more they can invest in communities across the country. Small and medium-sized businesses selling on Amazon employ more than 1.5 million Americans, and that’s just the start.
Learn how Amazon supports independent sellers. | | | 2024 WATCH BIDEN TO KICK OFF AD CAMPAIGN DURING NFL OPENER — “The Biden campaign plans to place a new TV ad targeted to battleground states during the NFL season opener Thursday,” reports Axios’ Sara Fischer. “The spot is part of a broader $25 million campaign that will focus on the president's economic record and last through December.” GRANITE STATE UPDATE — “Haley Announces NH County Campaign Chairs, Defends Moms for Liberty,” by New Hampshire Journal’s Michael Graham DISCLOSURE WATCH — “Tim Scott never disclosed buying stocks he recently said he owned,” by Roll Call’s Justin Papp CONGRESS FIRE FIGHT — A bipartisan effort to permanently raise pay for wildland firefighters and ramp up disaster aid across the country may be scuttled as Congress nears a government spending showdown next month, CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Haley Talbot report. “[House Speaker KEVIN] McCARTHY, whose home state of California is by far the most at-risk state for wildfires in the U.S., responded by suggesting they will include an extension in a short-term funding bill.” the pair write. “The National Federation of Federal Employees warns that 30% to 50% of wildland firefighters could resign from the US Forest Service in the face of uncertainty with compensation, all while dealing with toxic working conditions.” CLIMATE CORNER — “Congress is coming back. Here's what to watch on climate and energy policy,” by WaPo’s Maxine Joselow: “Congress … faces a ticking clock for approving the Biden administration’s request for roughly $16 billion in new disaster aid. Among less immediate priorities, key lawmakers are hoping to pass legislation aimed at speeding up the nation’s permitting process for energy projects. But a bipartisan deal on permitting seems unlikely to materialize quickly.” POLICY CORNER PEPFAR IN THE CROSSHAIRS — With the law governing the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief set to lapse at the end of the month, funding fights on Capitol Hill could threaten the future of the nation’s global HIV/AIDS relief program as the program “becomes mired in the fight over abortion,” Alice Miranda Ollstein and Carmen Paun report. “[L]awmakers in both parties see no clear path for reviving the law by the end of the year,” the pair write. “While the program would limp on, the impasse threatens to turn an initiative credited with saving 25 million lives into an annual political battle, making it far more difficult for groups fighting HIV and AIDS to hire staff or launch long-term projects.” DIAGNOSING MEDICARE SPENDING — Though lawmakers often cite spending on Medicare as a major federal budget concern, spending per beneficiary has nearly leveled off for the last decade — and there’s not a clear explanation why, NYT’s Margot Sanger-Katz, Alicia Parlapiano and Josh Katz report. “[T]he Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.” But: “If the slowdown per beneficiary ends, it will strain the Medicare trust fund and drive up the federal debt — and may dominate the Washington policy conversation again.” A DELICATE BALANCE — “Student Loan Borrowers Face Repayment Soon. CFOs Are Watching to See if Spending Takes a Hit,” by WSJ’s Jennifer Williams-Alvarez reports
| | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Share what you think in a short, 1 minute survey about one of our advertisers | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY DEEP IN THE HEART — Texas state senators launched impeachment proceedings against embattled Republican AG KEN PAXTON this morning, rejecting Paxton's efforts to dismiss the case prematurely in a series of preliminary votes. The Texas Senate trial covers 16 out of 20 articles of impeachment against Paxton, who has faced numerous accusations of corruption and bribery throughout his three years in office. The trial is a rare showing of a GOP-led state taking action against a prominent member of their own party, write AP’s Jake Bleiberg and Paul Weber: “For years in Texas, many Republicans have resisted criticizing or facing head-on the litany of legal troubles surrounding Paxton, who has remained popular among the party’s hard right by aligning himself closely to Trump.” To remove Paxton from office, two-thirds of the state’s senators must vote to convict him on at least one article of impeachment. The trial is expected to last up to three weeks. More from the Texas Tribune JUDICIARY SQUARE IN THE DOGHOUSE? — “Supreme Court asked if police dog's paws violated Constitution during traffic stop,” by USA Today’s John Fritze: “By all accounts, the Belgian Malinois did his job, sniffing out a pill bottle and a plastic bag that contained meth residue … But the paws NERO placed on the driver side door as he jumped up to get a better sniff have opened a constitutional question that has now reached the Supreme Court: Whether the dog’s mere touching of the car violated the Fourth Amendment's prohibition on ‘unreasonable searches.’” DIVERSITY ON THE DOCKET — In an analysis of federal court records from all 94 federal court districts across the country, Bloomberg Law’s Tiana Headley reports that as many as 25 federal districts have never had a non-white judge. THE WHITE HOUSE STAFFING UP — Former hacker and Twitter whistleblower PEITER “MUDGE” ZATKO will join the Biden administration’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency as a part-time senior technical advisor, WaPo’s Tim Starks scoops this morning. “It’s a high-profile hire for the Biden administration’s focus on products that are secure by design’ … a little more than a year ago, he filed a whistleblower complaint against Twitter with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Chinese spy agency suggests that a Biden-Xi meeting hinges on ‘sincerity,’” by Reuters’ Liz Lee COMING TO AMERICA — “Australian lawmakers head to US to lobby against efforts to extradite WikiLeaks founder Assange,” per the AP: “JULIAN ASSANGE, an Australian citizen, has spent the past four years in Britain’s Belmarsh Prison fighting extradition to the U.S… The effort by the Australian lawmakers is the latest in a series of international moves raising questions about the extradition.”
| | | | SPONSORED CONTENT More than 60% of sales on Amazon’s store are from independent sellers
Amazon is committed to seeing small businesses thrive, which is why we provide services and support to help them grow. “Amazon has created a wonderful environment for small businesses, giving us the tools we need to succeed,” said Adrienne, owner of Blue Henry. Learn how. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | PLAYBOOKERS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Alan Alonso is now chief of congressional and legislative affairs for OPM. He previously was a policy adviser for State. — Christian Marrone is now head of global intelligence and security at Standard Industries. He most recently was a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors and is a Lockheed Martin, DHS and DOD alum. TRANSITION — David Heitlinger is joining Atlantic Strategies Group. He previously was a legislative director with Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.) WEEKEND WEDDING — Chelsea Glynn, policy adviser for Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) and a Antonio Delgado and Pete Aguilar alum, and Michael Zissman, senior director of business analysis at Capital One, got married on Sunday at the Mayflower Hotel. Pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
