| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
With Latinos, both parties are in the wilderness. | David McNew/AFP via Getty Images | Texas Republicans are set to pass their new congressional maps through the state House today, officially putting their stamp on the redistricting arms race that has unfolded as national Republicans push to retain control of the House in next year’s midterms. The Republican-led gambit to redistrict — which is being met with similar efforts across other states and notable retaliation in California — rests on a significant gamble banking on the emerging realignment of many working-class Latino voters toward the GOP. But over a year out from the 2026 elections, there’s an emerging reality operatives say are slapping both parties in the face: President Donald Trump’s approval numbers with Latino voters are souring — and those same voters still don’t trust Democrats. The numbers: Trump came in with a net 27-percent approval among Latinos in the Pew Research Center’s August survey. The Economist/YouGov poll put him at 28 percent. Reuters/Ipsos’ latest numbers published Monday gave Trump 32 percent, which matches his lowest approval in their survey. But the resounding warning signs are in Latino-run Equis Research’s latest polling memo released this week, which went beyond just Trump’s favorability, and offer lessons for Republicans and Democrats. With Republicans’ razor-thin majority in the House and the possibility of entirely new, Hispanic-majority districts defining the next elections, the flagging figures are worth paying attention to on both sides of the aisle, multiple Democratic and Republican strategists told Playbook. With Latinos, both parties are in the wilderness. “This confirms what we’ve been seeing over and over again,” Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, told Playbook. “Some Latinos having regrets voting for Trump — but also still not sure that the Democrats are the answer.” Pocket-checking: One of the most striking statistics from Equis’ research shows 56 percent of Latino men now disapprove of Trump — the same coalition that swung for Trump last year. And pocketbook issues rank among the top reasons why. “The cost of living was by far Trump's weakest area,” Maria di Franco Quiñonez, a research director at Equis, told Playbook. “It’s really extended to the Republican Party as a whole.” That should be especially concerning when it comes to redistricting, Republican strategist Mike Madrid told Playbook. “That is who they're banking on with this new carved out map in Texas. That’s madness.” But this doesn’t mean Latinos are now flocking to Democrats, di Franco Quiñonez said. Latino voters are split down the middle on Democrats in the most competitive House districts, 47 percent favorability to 48 percent. And a majority don’t see Democrats mounting an effective opposition. “They have not been able to stop that bleeding,” one high-level Republican operative granted anonymity to discuss strategy told Playbook. “There’s no pushback to Trump, there’s no leader in the Democratic Party, they don’t know who that is.” Republicans also know they’re playing on what was once Democratic turf, the GOP operative said. Even with fluctuations in Trump’s approval — Equis found that 8 percent of Latino voters regretted voting for Trump and 19 percent are disappointed with his actions as president — these aren’t the same numbers as 2018, when voters snapped back toward Democrats, they argue. The operative pointed to Equis’ polling showing 70 percent of Latinos that voted for Trump are happy with their choice. “I read that and I’m like, that’s great,” they said. “We’re feeling good about where we are.” When it comes to this swing group, there’s always been a swath of Latinos — Miami’s Cubans, for example — that have been historically conservative. It’s the portion of Latinos that are somewhere on the fence (Equis reported 16 percent undecided) that have the power to flip the House next year, Rocha told Playbook. “We’re never gonna get all of them back, but we can get back 10 to 20 percent of them and realign this to what it used to be, because the data shows they’re not happy with Republicans,” Rocha said. As the numbers continue to trend downward for Republicans and Democrats face a significant voter registration problem, per new reporting from NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Jonah Smith, this has to be a wake-up call for both parties, Madrid told Playbook. “We’re witnessing two parties in significant transition here, and they're both operating off of false assumptions, and neither is completely sure or confident in what their future coalition will be, but they know that their old coalition does not work for them,” Madrid said. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Are you a campaign strategist with thoughts on Latino voters? Slide into my inbox at abianco@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Comcast: Comcast is focused on connecting millions of Americans now and into the future. With $80 billion invested to expand broadband infrastructure in the U.S., Comcast is actively supporting the goal of bringing broadband to everyone, including rural communities across the country. Learn more. | | | | | | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. WAR AND PEACE: Russia wants to be involved in negotiations over security guarantees for Ukraine, with new comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov undercutting “hopes that any progress has been made” toward ending the war in Ukraine, POLITICO’s Ketrin Jochecová reports. Lavrov floated the prospect of China joining security discussions, signaling that Russia has not “softened on its maximalist positions on Ukraine.” But many European leaders haven’t been convinced Putin wants to reach a peace deal — they just want to humor Trump until he decides to punish Russia, POLITICO’s Gabriel Gavin and colleagues report. The latest on the guarantees: Kyiv’s allies in the “coalition of the willing” met today to form a plan to commit British and French troops to protect Ukraine in a peace deal, with 10 countries saying they would provide military backup, Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan and colleagues write. But the specifics of any U.S. support remain unclear. 2. THE CRISIS IN GAZA: Trump in an interview yesterday effusively praised Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu for launching airstrikes against Iran, per NYT’s Matthew Mpoke Bigg. “He’s a war hero, because we work together. He’s a war hero,” Trump said, adding: “I guess I am too.” The comments come as the Israeli military announced today that it’s arming 60,000 reserve troops to carry out its new ground operation in Gaza City, WSJ’s Anat Peled reports. Israel is moving forward with its plans to take the center of Gaza even as Netanyahu weighs a ceasefire proposal that Hamas has said it would accept, NYT’s Lara Jakes writes. Survey says: A majority of Americans believe that every country in the United Nations should recognize Palestinian statehood, with the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling putting 58 percent in favor and 33 percent not in favor. 3. FED UP: “Trump Considers Firing Fed Official After Accusation of Mortgage Fraud,” by WSJ’s Matt Grossman and Brian Schwartz: “Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud … Trump wrote in a social-media post in response to [Bill] Pulte’s claims that ‘[Lisa] Cook must resign, now!!!’ Behind the scenes, Trump is considering going further. If she doesn’t resign, Trump is discussing trying to fire her for cause … Pulte’s post alleges that in 2021 Cook sought mortgages on two properties — one in Michigan, the other in Atlanta — and described both of them as her primary residence in papers submitted 14 days apart.” 4. CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: A new Washington Post-Schar School poll shows that D.C. residents oppose Trump’s takeover of the D.C. police, and 65 percent don’t believe the operation will make the city safer. About 8 in 10 oppose Trump’s executive order to federalize law enforcement. More from WaPo New incentives: The U.S. Marshals Service announced that it will be offering cash for tips that lead to arrests in D.C. as a part of Trump’s crime crackdown, WaPo’s Martin Weil reports. “The post gives no details about the reward program, or the matters about which tips were sought. But it links to a marshals service website that provides information that seems to limit the types of matters involved to traditional concerns of the marshals.”
| | | | The California Agenda-- Don't miss POLITICO's inaugural California policy summit in Sacramento. Join us in-person or virtually to explore policyy debates around tech, energy, health care and more. Hear from Sen. Alex Padilla (D), Katie Porter, GOP gubernatorial candidates and more! Register to watch. | | | | | 5. TRADING PLACES: Canada and Mexico are looking for new ways to expand their trade together without the U.S. serving as a middleman, as Trump’s tariffs provide a “chance to reset the relationship and compare notes,” NYT’s Emiliano Rodríguez Mega and Ian Austen write. It’s unclear how long it will last. … Azerbaijan is looking to expand its relationship with the U.S. with new economic and technology ties, after the Trump administration helped broker a peace deal with neighboring Armenia, Axios’ Colin Demarest reports. … Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is pushing European countries to look beyond the U.S. and work toward their own economic resilience, WSJ’s Ed Frankl reports. Trump’s trade winners: Puerto Rico, as the “America First” tariffs boost manufacturing on the island, Bloomberg’s Jim Wyss reports. “We have multiple companies choosing Puerto Rico because we are American manufacturing, we are made in the USA, and that automatically liberates them from tariffs,” Gov. Jenniffer González-Colón said. Trump’s trade losers: Sony announced today that it will hike the price of its PlayStation 5 console in the U.S., the latest video game giant to raise its prices amid Trump’s trade war, POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy writes. “Similar to many global businesses, we continue to navigate a challenging economic environment,” a Sony exec said in a press statement today. 6. LIFE AT THE CDC: “CDC Employees Return to Work With Bullet Holes Still in the Windows,” by NOTUS’ Margaret Manto: “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention employees returning to the office more than a week after a gunman shot about 500 bullets at the Atlanta headquarters are finding remnants of a crime scene. A CDC employee sent NOTUS photographs of windows still pockmarked with bullet holes on Monday afternoon. Handwritten signs taped to chairs warned employees to avoid glass on the carpet. “‘I was thinking they would have at least enhanced security going into campus and/or in buildings, but it seems oddly the same as usual,’ the CDC employee told NOTUS via text. A CDC spokesperson said in an email to NOTUS that the agency is ‘working closely with [the Georgia Bureau of Investigation] on a security assessment of the facilities to ensure the safety, security and wellbeing of staff for when they return to campus.’” 7. K STREET FILES: White House principal deputy press secretary Harrison Fields is exiting the administration to join CGCN, the GOP-aligned lobbying and public affairs firm, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. The departure of Fields, a Trump 1.0 alum and “one of the most senior Black men on the president's team,” comes a day after Trent Morse became the first senior White House official to decamp for K Street to launch his own lobbying shop, as POLITICO’s Caitlin Oprysko scooped. Though he’s subject to a one-year cooling off period during which he’s barred from lobbying the West Wing directly or representing any foreign entities, Morse is free to lobby the rest of the executive branch or advise others lobbying the White House. 8. THE COST OF LIVING: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “unusually large personal security requirements” are causing a strain across the “Army agency tasked with protecting him as it pulls agents from criminal investigations to safeguard family residences in Minnesota, Tennessee and D.C.,” WaPo’s Tara Copp and colleagues report. The “sprawling, multimillion-dollar initiative” is pushing the Criminal Investigation Division “to staff weeks-long assignments in each location and at times monitor residences belonging to the Hegseths’ former spouses.” A CID official said Hegseth’s staffing is “unlike any other in the agency’s recent history. ‘I’ve never seen this many security teams for one guy,’ the official said. ‘Nobody has.’” 9. ON DEFENSE: “The US Navy is building a drone fleet to take on China. It's not going well,” by Reuters’ David Jeans: “During a U.S. naval test off the California coast last month, which was designed to showcase the Pentagon’s top autonomous drone boats, one vessel stalled unexpectedly. … another drone vessel smashed into the idling boat’s starboard side, vaulted over the deck, and crashed back into the water … The previously unreported episode, which involved two vessels built by U.S. defense tech rivals Saronic and BlackSea Technologies, is one of a series of recent setbacks in the Pentagon’s push to build a fleet of autonomous vessels.”
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We extended our network to over 1.25 million new homes and businesses in the last year alone and are on track to do the same this year. Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Ari Shapiro, host of “All Things Considered,” is leaving NPR at the end of September. Graham Platner, the Maine oyster farmer challenging Susan Collins, apparently has “very dynamic” oysters, the Midcoast Villager found out. POLITICO MOVES — Katie Locke has moved into the newly created role of supervising editor of POLITICO’s Central Editing Desk. She most recently served as a newsletter editor. Stacey Dec and Nadia Wynter have also joined as newsletter editors. Dec previously was a digital news editor at ABC News. Wynter comes to POLITICO from Slack, where she launched the company’s copy desk. TRANSITIONS — Hampton Dellinger is now a partner in the litigation department at Foley Hoag. He previously was U.S. special counsel and is a former assistant AG at the Justice Department. … Natalie Turner is joining Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Ariz.) office as comms director. She most recently was a public affairs specialist at the Kansas Bureau of Investigation and is a Roger Marshall alum. … Michael Marinaccio is heading up a new tech advocacy group, the Center for Responsible Technology. He previously was CEO of Magnitude Consulting. … Rachel Shekell is now manager of government affairs and policy at Mastercard. She most recently was a public policy specialist at Plaid. … Mary Lou Akai-Ferguson is now executive director of the Asian American Power Network. She previously was organizer and strategist at Akai Strategies. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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