Joe’s looming Hunter vulnerability

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Sep 07, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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STRIKE WATCH — United Auto Workers President SHAWN FAIN: “GM has come to the table with an insulting proposal that doesn’t come close to an equitable agreement for America’s autoworkers. GM either doesn’t care or isn’t listening when we say we need economic justice at GM by 11:59pm on September 14th. The clock is ticking. Stop wasting our members’ time. Tick tock.”

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — Ohio’s congressional map will remain the same in 2024 as it was last year, after the state Supreme Court today tossed out challenges to the district borders that had previously been ruled unconstitutional, The Plain Dealer’s Jeremy Pelzer reports. The political upshot is a bit of a mixed bag: The current map is a Republican gerrymander, but Democrats nonetheless managed to win multiple swing seats in 2022 — and the status quo prevents the boundaries from being revised to skew even further toward the GOP. (For one more cycle.)

As a result, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its ratings for Democratic Reps. MARCY KAPTUR’s and GREG LANDSMAN’s seats from toss-up to leaning Democratic.

President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden leaves after a court appearance, July 26, 2023, in Wilmington, Del.

There’s growing evidence that Hunter Biden’s financial dealings could become a political hurdle for the president. | Julio Cortez/AP Photo

NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — There remains no public evidence thus far of President JOE BIDEN receiving money HUNTER BIDEN got from Burisma or being otherwise implicated in bribery or corruption. But as Republican politicians and conservative media ramp up attacks, there’s growing evidence that his son’s financial dealings could become a political hurdle for the president.

In a new CNN/SSRS poll that’s tough for Biden all around, a whopping 61% of Americans think Biden was involved with Hunter’s business dealings while serving as VP, including 42% who say they think he acted illegally. And a majority again (55%) believes that the president has acted inappropriately in the criminal investigation into Hunter.

The president looks mighty vulnerable in his reelection bid in the survey, which finds DONALD TRUMP 1 point ahead of him, per Ariel Edwards-Levy and Jennifer Agiesta, with. Biden’s particularly weighed down by falling support among voters of color relative to 2020.

Biden is also in a statistical dead heat with several of the other top GOP presidential contenders in the survey. NIKKI HALEY has the biggest/clearest lead, beating Biden 49% to 43%, which her campaign was quick to trumpet as she leans into an electability argument. (Remember, due to the Electoral College, Biden may need to win the popular vote by several points to stay in the White House.)

Hunter on the Hill: As House Republicans continue to rattle their sabers about a potential impeachment inquiry, The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam, Amie Parnes and Marc Caputo report on how key figures in the House GOP have alighted on the unproven bribery allegations as grounds for the probe. Even if they don’t turn up a smoking gun, they report, the thinking goes that the investigation will cloud Biden’s reputation just as Trump faces his multiple courtroom reckonings.

And on the other side of the aisle, House Democrats are urging the White House to set a clearer, sharper, more unified strategy for countering impeachment, CNN’s Annie Grayer, Lauren Fox and Kayla Tausche report. Members know that Biden is sensitive about his son, which makes coordinating strategy with the White House trickier. “It is dragging out and the obvious effect of it is to create the opportunity for false equivalency given Trump’s problems,” warns Rep. DAN KILDEE (D-Mich.). “That void is going to be filled. Now it is being filled by Republicans.”

Hunter on the trail: Trump is rolling out a familiar playbook on the campaign trail to try to tag Biden as corrupt, deploying false and unsubstantiated claims against the president, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf reports. The growing barrage of attacks aims to link Biden to Hunter’s woes. “From the unsubstantiated premise that Biden has taken bribes, Trump goes on to allege foreign blackmail caused Biden to take certain actions,” for instance. “However, those actions never occurred.”

TOGETHER AGAIN — For the first time in seven years, Trump will sit down next week with erstwhile sparring partner MEGYN KELLY for an interview, she announced.

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE

IT’S OFFICIAL — Biden officially nominated MIKE WHITAKER as the next head of the FAA, the White House announced today. Whitaker is the administration’s latest attempt to fill the spot after PHIL WASHINGTON’s nomination ran aground in the Senate earlier this year. Whitaker is a former deputy FAA administrator and United Airlines exec who most recently has been COO of air taxi company Supernal. It remains to be seen how smooth his Senate confirmation process will be. More from Tanya Snyder

CONGRESS

START AND STOPGAP — House Republicans are weighing a split decision on a stopgap continuing resolution to keep the government open, attaching emergency disaster relief funding to the bill but omitting Ukraine aid, Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio report. That would, of course, lead to a standoff with the White House and the Senate, where both parties’ leaders want to include a package for Ukraine. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY wants Ukraine assistance taken up separately — and only in conjunction with border security dollars and border policy changes.

LATEST BRIEFING — National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN today met with Senate leaders and key national security members for a briefing on the situation in Ukraine, per Fox News’ Kelly Phares.

ALL POLITICS

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — After losing by half a percentage point in 2022, Democrat CARL MARLINGA today launched another bid to take on Rep. JOHN JAMES (R-Mich.), the Detroit Free Press’ Todd Spangler reports. The former judge and special assistant to the state AG, Marlinga hopes to get more outside Democratic help this time than he received in last year’s closer-than-expected race. But James has been raising lots of money, and Marlinga will face a contested primary first.

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — Advertising giant Omnicom has acquired FP1 Strategies and Plus Communications, Caitlin Oprysko reports. That brings the twin GOP consulting and public affairs firms under the umbrella of a big public relations operation, though they’ll keep their current brands. As Caitlin notes, “private equity firms aren’t the only deep-pocketed investors looking to cash in on the boom times for Washington’s advocacy shops.”

PRIMARY COLORS — A new California Senate poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies finds Democratic Rep. ADAM SCHIFF narrowly ahead of Democratic Rep. KATIE PORTER, 20% to 17%. Democratic Rep. BARBARA LEE lags behind at 7%, roughly in league with Republicans JAMES BRADLEY, STEVE GARVEY and ERIC EARLY.

2024 WATCH

NOT WORRYING YET — Democratic pollsters maintain that there are plenty of reasons for their party not to panic about Biden’s chances, Semafor’s Benjy Sarlin reports. The Biden campaign hasn’t really ramped up yet, it’s still early, and broad negative opinions about Trump are fairly hardened.

AD WARS — The Biden campaign is launching a new minute-long ad that touts his surprise visit to Ukraine earlier this year as a demonstration of the “quiet strength of a true leader,” NBC’s Mike Memoli reports. It’s airing during “60 Minutes” in battleground states, timed with Biden’s trip to the G-20.

REALITY CHECK — VIVEK RAMASWAMY may be having a bit of a moment in the GOP primary, but there’s a major ceiling on his success: More than any other candidate, his base of support is the same as Trump’s, NBC’s Emma Barnett and Katherine Koretski report from Manchester, N.H. He’s drawing big crowds in the Granite State, where many voters see him — and like him! — but are planning to back Trump nonetheless.

DOUBLING DOWN — “Ramaswamy: Former felons should be allowed to carry guns,” by Sally Goldenberg

 

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POLICY CORNER

THE TAXMAN COMETH — The new 15% corporate minimum tax included in the Inflation Reduction Act is on its way, and companies are working hard to figure it out — or figure out ways around it, NYT’s Alan Rappeport reports. There’s a serious lobbying campaign underway from various industries to get Treasury to enforce the law generously, while progressives urge Secretary JANET YELLEN to hold firm on a strict interpretation. The big question is how Treasury will write the rules. “[E]nergy companies, the film industry, financial firms and foreign companies that operate in the United States are particularly concerned.”

BIPARTISAN INFRASTRUCTURE LAW IN ACTION — “Help Wanted: Women to Fix America’s Infrastructure,” by WSJ’s Sarah Chaney Cambon and Sabrina Siddiqui: “The federal government is working with tradeswomen organizations and local governments to help women enter and stay in the labor force, developing strategies that include offering child-care services and addressing gender-based violence and harassment in the workplace, officials said.”

BOONDOGGLE BOULEVARD — “The Inside Story of How the Navy Spent Billions on the ‘Little Crappy Ship,’” by ProPublica’s Joaquin Sapien: “Littoral combat ships were supposed to launch the Navy into the future. Instead they broke down across the globe and many of their weapons never worked. Now the Navy is getting rid of them. One is less than five years old.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — New Guttmacher Institute data shows that over the first half of this year, legal abortions jumped in states where they remained accessible, NYT’s Amy Schoenfeld Walker and Allison McCann report. Compared to the same period in 2020, abortions nationwide rose about 10% from 465,000 to 511,000. There were especially large leaps in states that border areas where abortions have been blocked, including Illinois, New Mexico and South Carolina, indicating that many women are traveling to obtain them.

AFTERNOON READ — “How Ben Sasse Became a Combatant in Florida’s Education Wars,” by NYT Magazine’s Michael Sokolove: “As RON DeSANTIS has turned public education into a political battleground, his state’s flagship university, now led by the former G.O.P. senator from Nebraska, has not remained neutral territory.”

NARRATIVE CORRECTIVE — There’s been plenty of ink spilled over Republican governors sending migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border to blue cities and states. But NYT’s Miriam Jordan and Edgar Sandoval note that the vast majority of new arrivals are heading to places like NYC and Chicago of their own accord.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

CRYPTO COLLAPSE — Major GOP donor RYAN SALAME, a former executive of SAM BANKMAN-FRIED’s FTX, is expected to plead guilty to criminal charges, Bloomberg’s Ava Benny-Morrison reports. The details aren’t clear yet.

MEDIAWATCH

SEARCHING FOR A SAVIOR — “Philanthropies Pledge $500 Million to Address Crisis in Local News,” by NYT’s Katie Robertson: “The initiative, called Press Forward, is spearheaded by the MacArthur Foundation and supported by organizations including the Knight Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York.”

PLAYBOOKERS

FOR YOUR RADAR — The Atlantic Festival has announced CBS News as its exclusive broadcast media partner, along with a new slate of speakers: Hillary Clinton, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Secretary of State Antony Blinken, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Smithsonian Institution Secretary Lonnie Bunch, Morgan Sword, Raúl Ibañez, DOE’s David Turk and Rohit Aggarwala. The festival is set to take place Sept. 28-29 at The Wharf.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy held a cocktail reception at Cafe Milano last night, hosted by owner Franco Nuschese and co-hosted by Kristi Rogers, Ashley Davis, and Anita and Tim McBride. SPOTTED: Barbara Comstock, Andrew Roberts, Ellie LeBlond Sosa, Helena Andrews-Dyer, Sam and Lee LeBlond, Brian McCormack, Marion Blakey, Alejandra Segura and Eric Jewett.

MEDIA MOVE — Joshua Eure is joining The Hill as executive producer of The Hill video. He’s a KXXV-TV, CBS and ABC alum.

TRANSITIONS — Joe Householder is now a partner at Longacre Square. He most recently was EVP at Burson Cohn & Wolfe and is a Hillary Clinton alum. … The Human Rights campaign is adding Sam Lau as VP of comms, Drew Daniels as VP of digital comms and strategy, Brandon Wolf as national press secretary/senior director of political comms and Christopher Huntley as VP of executive comms. … Tarsha Phillibert is now a partner at Duane Morris’s trial practice group. She previously was a trial attorney at the DOJ. …

The U.S. Green Building Council and Green Business Certification Inc. are adding Sarah Zaleski as chief products officer, Pete Tolsdorf as general counsel and Andy Burr as chief of staff. … Jordan Coyle is now a partner at White & Case’s intellectual property practice. He previously was a partner at Orrick. … Rob Shrum has launched Nexus Public Affairs, a consulting firm specializing in coalition management, external affairs counsel and government affairs strategy. He most recently was assistant VP at MultiState.

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California Today: Small signs of hope in San Francisco’s Tenderloin

The San Francisco neighborhood has become a punching bag for critics of the city, but there are reasons to hope for a better future.
Author Headshot

By Thomas Fuller

San Francisco Bureau Chief, National

It's Thursday. Our departing San Francisco bureau chief sees encouraging signs in the Tenderloin. Plus, a judge blocked a transgender notification policy in a Southern California school district.

The Tenderloin neighborhood of San Francisco.Cayce Clifford for The New York Times

The notorious Tenderloin. It's a symbol of so many problems afflicting San Francisco. Homelessness, drug overdoses, retail theft, general filth.

But I have to admit, it's one of my favorite neighborhoods in the city.

The Tenderloin reminds me of New York in the 1980s, unkempt, unsanitized, the intersection of Bleecker and the Bowery. There are stretches of sidewalk in the Tenderloin where you have to hold your breath — and close your eyes.

At the same time, there is arguably no other place in the city where it's easier to strike up a conversation. Life happens on the street in the Tenderloin, not cloistered behind closed doors. The neighborhood has been home to waves of immigrant families from countries spanning Vietnam to Yemen. There are hole-in-the-wall art galleries. Dive bars. And I challenge anyone to find better Thai food in California than in the restaurants of the Tenderloin. (My favorites: Lapats Thai Noodles Bar, Zen Yai, Lers Ros Thai.)

Two weeks ago, I took a walk through the Tenderloin with Jonathan Carver Moore, who owns an art gallery on Market Street on the edge of the district. Moore shares my fascination with the Tenderloin, and he once gave tours of the place.

"I love leaning into the grittiness," Moore said.

I interviewed Moore for a retrospective, published last week, on my seven years as San Francisco bureau chief for The New York Times. I've been looking for signs of rebirth in the city, and I saw some green shoots in the art galleries, shops and restaurants that we visited.

"Art is going to save San Francisco," Moore said.

On an August afternoon when most of the United States was sweltering in triple digits, it was 68 degrees in the Tenderloin. Moore introduced me to John Vochatzer, who runs a gallery, Calamity Fair, that periodically hosts concerts by local punk bands.

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Vochatzer also helps organize an art walk through the Tenderloin on the first Thursday of every month, a self-guided tour of art galleries and performance spaces in the district. He spoke of an optimism that he hadn't detected in years, partly because rents had come down for apartments and shop fronts.

"Artists, musicians and weirdos can afford this place again," he said. "For the first time in years, I'm meeting artists who are moving here for the arts scene."

Vochatzer said that before the pandemic, even in the most down-and-out parts of the Tenderloin, you couldn't find an apartment for less than $2,000 a month. "Now I know plenty of people who've gotten decent-sized studios for $1,200," Vochatzer said.

I met with Debra Walker, an artist who has lived through the city's boom and bust cycles, and asked her about this.

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"Wealth is like an inflating balloon in San Francisco," she told me. "When it deflates, as it's doing now, it gives art more space, more room to breathe." The artists' collective where she lives and works in the city recently renewed its lease.

I know what some readers are thinking: What is this guy going to write next week, an ode to Skid Row? The Tenderloin, I recognize, is not for everyone.

In a neighborhood that has so many problems, it may well be naïve to think that it will be a driver of San Francisco's revitalization. Crime could get out of control. The open-air drug deals on Tenderloin street corners could spawn even more violence. And in just the last two years, a dozen Vietnamese restaurants that relied on customers from City Hall and the nearby courthouses and federal offices have closed, casualties of work-from-home policies that kept customers away.

But for the first time in a while, opportunity seems to be knocking.

Thomas Fuller is now a Page One correspondent for The New York Times, working on the biggest news of the day, and will continue to write articles from Northern California. Heather Knight will start next week as the new San Francisco bureau chief for The Times.

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Gov. Gavin Newsom's executive order will work to understand A.I.'s impact on vulnerable communities.José Luis Villegas/Associated Press

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Southern California

Central California

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Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Jessica Gorman, who recommends an oddity in San Bernardino County:

"My partner and I recently took a trip down to SoCal for a wedding. We had some time to spare so a friend of ours told us to visit this abandoned Egyptian building in Chino Hills. Apparently, it was going to be an Egyptian-themed restaurant and was shut down in the midst of the pandemic in 2020 (spooky vibes for sure). It is in the middle of a random shopping center, next to the freeway but strangely enough — it is kind of magical. While there, I kept imagining that this was once someone's dream. I thought it was worth seeing — it felt like an artifact from the pandemic. Oh, and afterward, you can get a bit to eat (only it won't be Egyptian food)."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Joseph Bennett, left, and his husband, Eli, celebrating their 23rd anniversary.Joseph Bennett

And before you go, some good news

The Times recently published reader-submitted love stories that are no more than 100 words. I thought I'd finish today's newsletter with this lovely one from Joseph Bennett:

In July 2000, San Diego Pride held a mass commitment ceremony for several dozen same-sex couples. Single, I attended to witness all the love. "Please turn to your partner and repeat these vows," the minister said. On a whim, I turned to the handsome stranger next to me. "You wanna do this?" I asked. He said yes. We held hands and repeated the vows. The last one was: "I promise to support you to your highest potential." Afterward, we kissed and Eli asked: "Now that we're married, what's your name?" It's now been 23 wonderful years of fulfilling our promise.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow.

Soumya Karlamangla, Briana Scalia, Maia Coleman and Kellina Moore contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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