| | | |  | | By Rachel Umansky-Castro and Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | SHUTDOWN STICKER SHOCK: “Average Obamacare premiums are set to rise 30 percent, documents show,” by WaPo’s Paige Winfield Cunningham: “The rise in prices — affecting up to 17 million Americans who buy coverage on the federal marketplace — are by far the largest annual premium increases in recent years. The higher premiums, along with the likely expiration of pandemic-era subsidies, mean millions of people will see their health insurance payments double or even triple in 2026.”
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President Donald Trump answers questions from reporters during a roundtable on criminal cartels in the State Dining Room of the White House, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP | INFLATION NATION: The long-awaited inflation report finally landed this morning after delays due to the government shutdown — and it’s giving the Federal Reserve just enough breathing room to stay on track for another rate cut ahead of its meeting next week. The topline: Prices rose 3 percent in September from a year earlier, a touch higher than August but slightly tamer than expected, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports. Overall, it’s a “benign” report, but one that is welcome for the Fed, which has been starved of economic data during the shutdown. The details: Food and gas prices climbed, while housing costs eased, per WSJ’s Konrad Putzier and Harriet Torry. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, inched up just 0.2 percent from August, which “was the slowest pace in three months and restrained by the smallest increase in a key measure of housing costs since early 2021,” per Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette writes. Social graces: Millions of Social Security recipients will see their checks go up by 2.8 percent next year for a cost-of-living adjustment, which is enough to keep pace with overall inflation but probably not enough to cover other pricey expenses, per WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer Weil. The data dearth: For the release of today’s figures, the staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics were brought back to produce the report ahead of the deadline to adjust Social Security benefits, Victoria notes, and the agency isn’t yet collecting data for the next CPI, “which means the October report will also be delayed, and it’s unclear for how long. Meanwhile, the monthly jobs report is also indefinitely on hold.” Still, “investors are betting the report will help convince officials” at the Fed that they can line up another rate cut come December, Bloomberg notes. O CANADA: The fresh economic data comes as President Donald Trump is fuming at Canada, blasting the country again on Truth Social this morning over an Ontario ad invoking Ronald Reagan in opposition of Trump’s tariffs, POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy reports. He hit pause on trade talks, claiming that Canada tried “to illegally influence the United States Supreme Court” and that the country “has long cheated on Tariffs, charging our farmers as much as 400%.” NEC Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News in an interview that negotiations with Canada “have not been very collegial” and have not gone well. “I think the president is very frustrated,” Hassett said. Canadian PM Mark Carney pushed back on that characterization. “My colleagues have been working with their American colleagues on detailed, constructive negotiations,” he told reporters this morning. “And a lot of progress has been made, and we stand ready to pick up on that progress and build on that progress when the Americans are ready to have those discussions.” Jet-setting: The Canada spat is providing a new sense of context to Trump’s trip across Asia to play dealmaker-in-chief, which he is embarking on tonight. Carney, too, is heading off an Asia trip of his own to build new trade and security ties beyond the U.S., and he may even meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to reset Canada-China relations, Reuters’ Maria Cheng reports. Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at rumansky-castro@politico.com and abianco@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The Pharmaceutical Reform Alliance: This football season, Americans want to watch their favorite teams - not #BigPharma's ads. Despite regulators cracking down on direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising, industry spending on DTC ads surged this September. Instead of taking meaningful steps to slash prices for Americans, Big Pharma is spending millions to push their products. Read more about how Big Pharma is doubling down on ads nobody wants to see. | | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | | 
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks during a roundtable on criminal cartels with President Donald Trump in the State Dining Room of the White House, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP |
1. U.S. RAMPS UP WAR ON DRUGS: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed this morning that the U.S. military overnight carried out a 10th strike against an alleged drug boat “blaming the Tren de Aragua gang for operating the vessel and leaving six people dead in the Caribbean,” per AP’s Konstantin Toropin. “The pace of the strikes has quickened in recent days from one every few weeks in September when they first began to three this week.”
That’s not all: Hegseth also announced that the U.S. is sending an aircraft carrier down near South America, ordering a deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the U.S. Southern Command area to “bolster U.S. capacity to detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities that compromise the safety and prosperity of the United States,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said on X. “Deploying a carrier is a significant move for any White House, and often suggests larger scale military operations,” POLITICO’s Paul McLeary writes. First In Playbook — How it’s playing on the Hill: Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) are on C-SPAN’s “Ceasefire” tonight with Playbook's Dasha Burns, where they discussed the Trump administration’s recent strikes and the lack of coordination that the White House has had with Congress. “I’ve gotten more valuable updates out of the press than I’ve gotten from either the Pentagon or the White House,” Coons said in a clip shared with Playbook. “Bluntly, these programs, I should not find out about in the press. I am concerned about the steady march toward war with Venezuela.” Lankford agreed with the sentiment. “The administration needs to give insight into Congress,” Lankford said. “If this was happening, with this level of insight, under the Biden administration, I’d be apoplectic.” Watch the clip The global view: “Trump’s narco strikes threaten to reroute drugs to Europe, German official warns,” by POLITICO’s Ferdinand Knapp 2. WEAPONIZATION WATCH: New York AG Letitia James this morning pleaded not guilty to federal charges that allege she lied on federal mortgage forms to gain financial benefit, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports from the courthouse in Norfolk, Virginia. It was James’ first appearance in court over the case, which was brought by Lindsey Halligan, Trump’s handpicked prosecutor, just weeks after the president publicly pressured the Justice Department to pursue his perceived political enemies. The judge set a Jan. 26, 2026, trial date. 3. REDISTRICTING RODEO: The latest salvos in the redistricting arms race illustrate the competing pressures that each party is under as Trump continues his unprecedented pressure campaign to redraw maps across the country, while Democrats search for ways to counter. In New Hampshire, Republicans’ efforts appear stalled, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. “State Sen. Dan Innis has yanked his own bill that would have kicked off a mid-decade redraw of the state’s two congressional districts in the face of resistance from GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte.” Innis told Lisa that the governor “wasn’t that supportive.” Crabcakes and … map-drawing?: Democrats at the national level are putting the pressure on the party in Maryland, “arguing that the party’s base would support Free State leaders jumping into the nationwide fray,” POLITICO’s Andrew Howard scoops. “A Change Research polling memo commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and shared first with POLITICO argued that a majority of Maryland voters responded positively to ‘to every argument that was tested in support of redistricting,’ and found that a majority of Democratic voters in the state would be more likely to support a candidate in a primary if they backed redrawing the state’s maps.” | | | | As the shutdown fight deepens, stay on top of every twist with POLITICO’s essential newsletters.
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➡️ Subscribe to West Wing Playbook | | | | | 4. TRAIL MIX: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is formally endorsing Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor today, as POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg and colleagues scooped this morning. In a statement given to NYT, Jeffries praised Mamdani’s focus on affordability, despite “areas of principled disagreement.” The Democratic leader and New York native’s move comes just before early voting begins tomorrow and follows months of pressure to back Mamdani. Across the Potomac: GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has highlighted her extensive travel and events across the state, but her schedule says different, NOTUS’ Dave Levinthal reports. “Earle-Sears logged 170 different scheduled meetings and events … during her first three months in office. … By early 2023, however, Earle-Sears’ schedule grew bare. Her official schedule contained no engagements from February to July 2023.” Demographic deep dive: Trump’s favorability with Latino voters has dropped, with 65 percent reporting an unfavorable opinion and 25 percent with a favorable opinion in the latest AP-NORC poll. That’s down from a 44 percent favorability that Trump held in the same poll just before he took office. It marks an acute downward turn of support from a group that the GOP made significant inroads with in 2024, and that will be a key voting bloc in next year’s elections — especially in newly redrawn Texas. 5. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: Russia’s economic envoy is in the U.S. today for official talks just after the Treasury Department levied sweeping sanctions on Russian oil to crack down on Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, CNN’s Matthew Chance reports. But across the pond in the U.K., Ukraine’s “coalition of the willing” is meeting today to put forward yet another show of support for the embattled country, NYT’s Mark Landler reports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will talk with top European leaders about a potential boycott of Russian oil and assistance for Ukraine’s military defenses. Behind the scenes: The person behind Trump’s toughening on Putin is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, per Bloomberg’s Natalia Drozdiak and colleagues. “Rubio’s influence in the administration’s change of heart signals an even more expansive role for the top US diplomat … His stance contrasted with the more accommodating strategy toward Russia advocated by Trump’s long-time friend and special envoy Steve Witkoff.” 6. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Rubio said more diplomats “would work with American military officers at a new center in Israel aimed at monitoring the cease-fire in Gaza, as the Trump administration maintains pressure on Israel to stick to the deal,” NYT’s Edward Wong reports. “I think we have a lot of reason for healthy optimism about the progress that’s being made,” Rubio said this morning in Israel. But as he reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the peace deal, he also stressed that the way forward in Gaza is only through Trump’s plan, saying there’s “no plan B” and Hamas would have to demilitarize, WaPo’s Shira Rubin writes. The view from Israel: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is entering campaign mode, Bloomberg’s Galit Altstein and Ethan Bronner write, promoting his work as saving the nation from attacks ahead of next year’s elections, where he seems more likely to hold onto his power. Phase two: “A Quick Route to Rebuild Half of Gaza, or Another U.S. Pipe Dream?” by NYT’s David Halbfinger 7. SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: Scores of federal workers have officially missed their first paycheck today as the government shutdown plows on with no resolution in sight, NYT’s Eileen Sullivan writes. About 670,000 workers have been furloughed, with another 730,000 working without pay. Both party-line bills to pay some exempted federal workers during the shutdown failed in the Senate yesterday, though the issue could come back around next week: Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) are considering a potential merging of their two bills — a prospect that Majority Leader John Thune said he was open to, per Punchbowl. | | | | A message from The Pharmaceutical Reform Alliance:  
| | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | OUT AND ABOUT — The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies honored Maryland Gov. Wes Moore with its highest honor, the Louis E. Martin Great American Award, yesterday at The Gathering Spot DC. SPOTTED: Dedrick Asante-Muhammad, Sophia Kerby, Monica Mitchell, Paul Thornell, Candice Austin, Algernon Austin, Nicole Austin-Hillery, Talisha Bekavac, Steve Benjamin, Kelly Dibble, Ralph Everett, Navin Girishankar, Jason Grumet, Alexis Holmes, Erica Johnson Creamer, Barbara Johnson, Jenn Jones, La Shaun King, Hanh Le, Ashley Lewis, Reta Jo Lewis, Natalie Madeira Cofield, Anthony Mitchell, Tara Murray, Alyson Northrup, Cynthia Overton, Kylie Patterson, Paul Plymouth, Rey Ramsey, Margaret Simms, Adam Taylor, Miguel Thames, Jamila Thompson, Nicol Turner Lee, Sarah Wartell, Tonya Williams, Valerie Wilson and Shalanda Young. — SPOTTED last night at the Center for Democracy & Technology’s “Tech Prom” at the Line Hotel: Rebecca Slaughter, Anna Gomez, Travis LeBlanc, Alan Davidson, Bill Bernstein, Gigi Sohn, Alvaro Bedoya, Tammy Haddad, Don Graves, Jen Pahlka, Tim O’Reilly, Steve Hartell, Alexandra Reeve Givens, Gerry Petrella, Steve Clemons, Susan Weinstock, Zach Graves, Neil Chilson, Cam Kerry, Michael Petricone and Stephen Balkam. — The Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition Institute held its annual Solutions Summit at the MLK Jr. Library yesterday. SPOTTED: Reps. Sean Casten (D-Ill.), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), Laura Friedman (D-Calif.), Mike Levin (D-Calif.), Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), George Whitesides (D-Calif.) and James Walkinshaw (D-Va.), Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Jay Inslee, Dave Turk, Max Frankel, Clinton Britt, Shalanda Baker, Anne McBride, Steve McBee, Miguel Guerra, Sam Ricketts and David Schutt. — Capitol Jewish Women’s Network held its fall networking event last night, hosted by Abby Jagoda, Tizzy Brown, Laurie Saroff, Rachel Miller, Rachel Perez-Allen and Tracy Tolk at the International Council of Shopping Centers. The coalition aims to bring together Jewish women working across the political/PR field for collaboration and networking in a nonpartisan space. SPOTTED: Hadar Arazi, Nicole Golden, Hannah Singer and Samantha Price. TRANSITIONS — Douglas Bove is joining FGS Global as a managing director. He previously worked at the State Department. … Kelsie Taggart is now VP of American Bridge. She previously worked at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. … Ethan Saxon and Carrie Adams are joining The AI Policy Network as VP of legislative affairs and VP of government affairs, respectively. Saxon previously worked at Mortgage Bankers Association and Adams was previously at Meta. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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