GOP hopes sour for a debt ceiling deal

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May 23, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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DOCU-DRAMA — Special counsel JACK SMITH is close to finishing his federal investigation into DONALD TRUMP’s handling of classified materials, WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha, Sadie Gurman and C. Ryan Barber report. Though it isn’t yet clear whether Smith will charge Trump with a crime, the former president’s “close associates are bracing for his indictment and anticipate being able to fundraise off a prosecution.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) stops and waves at tourists while speaking with reporters at the U.S. Capitol May 23, 2023. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Speaker Kevin McCarthy told his conference that a deal is nowhere close. | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Photo

READING THE TEA LEAVES — As debt ceiling negotiations continue, the latest signals from House Republicans don’t give much reason to hope for a resolution anytime soon.

  • The GOP negotiators, Reps. GARRET GRAVES (La.) and PATRICK McHENRY (N.C.), emphasized again that they need the White House to agree to cut — not just freeze — spending.
  • Even so, McCarthy continues to face pressure from his right flank. Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) voiced displeasure at the idea of any compromise with Democrats, per CNN’s Melanie Zanona.
  • Then, there’s … whatever this is: House Republicans “paused during their private weekly meeting on Tuesday to bid for … Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s used chapstick,” Olivia Beavers reports. “Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) placed a winning $100,000 bid, as confirmed by her spokesperson.” 

But, but, but: Burgess Everett notes an important bit of context: “Debt limit talks between White House and House Rs are oscillating between productive meetings and near-breakdowns, which is actually not that unusual for a big negotiation.”

“Everybody needs to relax,” said Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who sounds calmer than most. “The president and the speaker will reach an agreement. It will ultimately be passed on a bipartisan vote.”

X MARKS THE FRAUGHT America’s eyes are turning toward another Fast X — and this one stars Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN, not VIN DIESEL. The Treasury Department is scrambling to save money and stretch the government’s coffers a bit longer to stave off the X-date at which the U.S. will teeter into default, WaPo’s Jeff Stein, Rachel Siegel and Tony Romm scooped. Treasury is asking other agencies whether they might have flexibility in when they can make upcoming payments, with “increasingly urgent” attempts to find some breathing room and make it to June 15 (and then possible to July).

But some hard-line House conservatives don’t accept the June 1 timeframe Yellen has laid out, CNN’s Manu Raju reports.

  • Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.): “I don’t believe that the first of the month is a real deadline. I don’t understand why we’re not making Janet Yellen show her work.” 
  • Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.): “June 1st? Everybody knows that’s false.”

The break-glass option: “Court sets legal showdown on debt limit 14th Amendment argument,” by Josh Gerstein: “U.S. District Court Judge RICHARD STEARNS set a May 31 hearing on a lawsuit filed by a federal workers [union] contending that the 14th Amendment empowers Biden and other officials to sidestep the standoff.”

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — Police arrested a 19-year-old Missouri man who they said smashed a U-Haul truck into Lafayette Park security barriers across the street from the White House, likely intentionally, late last night. SAI VARSHITH KANDULA allegedly had a Nazi flag and made threats against Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS. He was slapped with several charges, including assault with a dangerous weapon and threatening harm. CBS’ Brian Dakss and Jordan Freiman report that Kandula didn’t seem to have significant criminal history or be on any watch lists.

NOTABLE NOMINATION — “Biden nominates Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead NSA, Cyber Command,” by Lara Seligman and Maggie Miller

TRUMP CARDS

HAPPENING TODAY — Trump will appear remotely this afternoon at a court hearing in the Manhattan criminal case against him, which will focus on the protective order for evidence in the case. The judge will emphasize that Trump can’t use the discovery process to attack witnesses. “It will be the first time in American history a former president has appeared virtually for a criminal court hearing,” notes CBS’ Graham Kates.

2024 WATCH

WILD STORY — “How Vivek Ramaswamy helped make Martin Shkreli the ‘pharma bro,’” by Daniel Lippman: VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s hedge fund firm invested with the since-infamous [MARTIN] SHKRELI. Later, he would say he was ‘pathologically incapable of telling the truth.’” The most amazing part came when Daniel reached out to Shkreli:

“Reached by phone, Shkreli demanded money from POLITICO and its parent company Axel Springer to cooperate. ‘I will tell you everything I know. And in exchange, I suppose your company would do something for me,’ he said, later adding ‘The really juicy stuff I know is something that I could potentially sell to the National Enquirer or to monetize that myself.’

“When told that POLITICO does not pay for interviews, he said: ‘I’m just struggling [to understand] what’s in it for me. … I’m gonna need a sweeter deal than that. I have this new software. If you plug that, maybe we got a deal then.’

“He then offered money to write a positive story about him, saying, ‘If I bless your Cash App like five bands [$5,000], will you say some nice shit about me?’”

FIGHT, FLIGHT OR FREEZE? — When Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS finally makes his presidential campaign official, he’s not planning to take on Trump directly very often, NBC’s Natasha Korecki reports. The plan is that “DeSantis will be judicious, or as his team puts it, ‘strategic’ about crossing into Mar-a-Lago territory. The governor will mostly ignore the daily Trump taunts and will take the former president head-on only in specific circumstances — particularly on policy.”

More on the coming campaign: “How DeSantis plans to jolt the GOP presidential primary and seize back the narrative,” by CNN’s Steve Contorno: “Just as in 2019, DeSantis’ political team is plotting an unpredictable, relentless blitz of the political map designed to quickly get the Republican in front of thousands of primary voters, stir the pot and invite contrasts between the 44-year-old governor and the campaigns of the aging front-runners in each party.”

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.

 
 

CONGRESS

IMMIGRATION FILES — Playing the role of Sisyphus in this Congress are Reps. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) and VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-Texas), who today rolled out a 500-page, bipartisan immigration reform package, WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Theo Meyer report. Attempting to jumpstart action on an issue that’s been moribund in Congress for decades, Salazar and Escobar know their task is difficult. But the bill would make headway on a number of issues, including $25 billion in border security funding, faster asylum processing, easier legal immigration and pathways to citizenship for some adult undocumented immigrants.

It remains to be seen if this could muster enough support in either chamber to make it to the floor and pass. As of now, the prospects look slim. But this is the most significant immigration policy bill to come along in a decade. And notably, Salazar says a discharge petition to bypass a recalcitrant House GOP leadership isn’t off the table.

ANOTHER BLOW FOR SECTION 702 — “FBI’s Misuse of Foreign Spying Law Complicates the Push to Renew It,” by WSJ’s Dustin Volz and Byron Tau: “The revelation that the Federal Bureau of Investigation used a foreign-spying tool to search for information about defendants in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and the 2020 GEORGE FLOYD protests has set back the Biden administration’s effort to win reauthorization of a law it says is a critical tool for national security, lawmakers in both parties said.”

MORE POLITICS

PRIMARY COLORS — Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN may be the Democratic frontrunner in the Michigan Senate race, but the field is getting crowded nonetheless: State Board of Education President PAMELA PUGH is the latest entrant today, The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke reports. Pugh touts her resume, the fact that she’s already won two statewide races and the glaring absence of Black women in the Senate.

THE COMEBACK KID? — If a special election ends up being called to replace Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.), former Rep. TOM SUOZZI (D-N.Y.) is leaning toward accepting Democratic party leaders’ nomination for his old seat, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. But he’s not likely to enter a primary. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS and state party chair JAY JACOBS have all been in talks about what will happen if Santos leaves early. Still, Suozzi’s selection is far from a sure thing, given his beef with Gov. KATHY HOCHUL. ROBERT ZIMMERMAN is another possibility, as are the multiple other Dems already running to take Santos on.

SEEKING JUSTICE — The DSCC officially sued West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE today to seek his official calendar/schedule dating back to 2017, as we’ve previewed in Playbook recently. The filing

WAR IN UKRAINE

LOOK WHO’S BACK — “Send for Agent BoJo! Boris Johnson dispatched to Texas to shore up Republican support for Ukraine,” by Annabelle Dickson in Dallas: “Pro-Ukraine think tankers on Monday brought [former British PM BORIS] JOHNSON to a private lunch in Dallas, Texas, to meet two dozen of the state’s leading conservative figures, including politicians, donors and captains of industry. The message Johnson was there to deliver was simple: America must stay the course in Ukraine.”

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 

POLICY CORNER

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — The Biden administration today announced the creation of an agency-spanning Task Force on Kids Online Health and Safety, which aims to help protect youth mental health, privacy and more online, per the Washington Blade’s Christopher Kane. Several departments are also taking new steps to protect kids’ data privacy, root out child sexual abuse content and more.

Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY is also out with a major new public advisory warning about the effects of social media on children’s health, along with a WaPo op-ed and an interview with NYT’s Catherine Pearson and Matt Richtel. “At this time, we do not yet have enough evidence to determine if social media is sufficiently safe for children and adolescents,” Murthy’s report finds. “We must acknowledge the growing body of research about potential harms, increase our collective understanding of the risks associated with social media use, and urgently take action.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — The WSJ reporter’s pre-trial detention in Russia was lengthened another three months today to at least Aug. 30, WSJ’s Ann Simmons reports.

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — Bush and Trump administration alum Monica Noe Filyaw died last month at 52. She was a senior adviser for USAID in the Trump administration, working on Covid-related issues, and previously worked for the State Department, the Interior Department and Howard Baker. Full obituary 

TRANSITIONS — Alvin Herring will retire as executive director of Faith in Action at the end of the month after five years, Religion News Service’s Jack Jenkins reports. … Clark Dumont is now of counsel to strategic comms firm Montagne Powers. He continues to be principal and counselor of Dumont Communications. …

… Sarita Williams is now press secretary for Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). She previously was comms director for Maryland Speaker of the House Adrienne Jones. … Quardricos Driskell will be director of government relations for the Health Management Academy. He previously was VP of public policy and government affairs at the Autoimmune Association.

ENGAGED — Peter Lifson, data director at Baker Group Strategies and an NRSC alum, proposed to Meredith Vitale, research analyst for Tennessee state Sen. Richard Briggs, on Saturday, followed by brunch at their first date spot and a celebration with friends off Broadway. They were introduced by a mutual friend in 2020. PicAnother pic

Harrison Farmer, an attorney at McDermott Will & Emery, proposed to Julie Orsini, a director in public affairs at APCO Worldwide, on Saturday at the Ritz Carlton in Santa Barbara, Calif. They met at Et Voila. PicAnother pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Abe Sutton, a principal at Rubicon Founders and a Trump White House alum, and Leora Sutton, senior software engineer at Ophelia Health, welcomed Maya Anne Sutton on May 16.Pic

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CRO: Why startups should prioritize conversion rate optimization early

TechCrunch+ Newsletter
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By Walter Thompson

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Tuesday

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Tuesday image

Image Credits: John Scott / Getty Images

Landing pages are one of the first places startups go to run experiments and refine their messaging, but if you aren’t constantly iterating, you're leaving money on the table.

In his latest column, growth marketing expert Jonathan Martinez identifies multiple conversion rate optimization (CRO) experiments and explains how "to streamline efforts so you can… have a consistent measuring methodology."

Here's the testing framework he uses:

  • Create a list of hypotheses.
  • Implement a stack-ranking methodology.
  • Establish a primary metric for each experiment.
  • Set up a baseline method to determine winners.

"CRO is so vital early on for startups," Martinez noted on Twitter. "It's when you can most easily find those 10-20% wins in conversion rates across the funnel."

Thanks for reading,

Walter Thompson
Editorial Manager, TechCrunch+
@yourprotagonist

Read More

Threading the needle: A peek at Paul Judge's plans for Softbank's Open Opportunity Fund

Threading the needle: A peek at Paul Judge's plans for Softbank's Open Opportunity Fund image

Image Credits: Paul Judge /

Dominic Madori-Davis interviewed Paul Judge, the incoming chairman of Softbank's recently rebranded Open Opportunity Fund.

With plans for a new $150M fund that will support founders from traditionally marginalized communities, Judge is taking on the relationship-based model that defines venture capital.

"It's been about getting a 'warm intro,' and people brag about that — 'Oh, you need to know somebody in order to get a meeting with me,'" he said.

"My view is, that has led to the system being closed."

Read More

TC City Spotlight: Atlanta

Sponsored by TechCrunch

Attend this event on June 7 to hear from local founders, investors, and government leaders about how startups can take advantage of Atlanta's extensive resources.

Register now

Before cutting your cloud spend, consider sharing your bill data internally

Before cutting your cloud spend, consider sharing your bill data internally image

Image Credits: mrs / Getty Images

Every startup is under pressure to save money in this macroeconomic environment. And because everyone pays for cloud-based services, it’s a ripe target for cost-cutters.

But it’s not an all-or-nothing game, says Naveen Zutshi, CIO at enterprise software company Databricks. He says his company slashed cloud spending by 25% — not by moving on-prem, but “by providing visibility into where and how the team was spending.”

In this TC+ article, he describes the methodology Databricks created to use cost allocation tagging, visibility dashboards and other tools to reduce its overall IT budget.

“It's possible to find spaces to cut,” says Zutshi. “But don't do it flippantly: Reducing cloud spend must be more about optimizing the budget for long-term ROI than cutting costs.”

Read More

How to write the perfect cold email to investors

How to write the perfect cold email to investors image

Image Credits: Julia Lemba / Getty Images

With a bit of research, any hopeful founder can build a spreadsheet with names and email addresses for investors they hope to pitch.

A personal introduction is far more effective, but Haje Jan Kamps says cold emails can be effective, as long as you follow several basic best practices.

Rule #1? “Short is good.”

In this article, he explains how to gain a holistic understanding of an investor’s thesis and shares two email templates, one written by ChatGPT (spoiler: it’s terrible).

Read More

Executives say they're committed to ESG, but data show otherwise

Executives say they're committed to ESG, but data show otherwise image

Image Credits: Serhii Shleihel / Getty Images

Consumers say they’re interested in buying products from companies with environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives, but “the 2023 Google Cloud Sustainability Survey suggests that executive resolve is slipping,” report Tim De Chant and Ron Miller.

Pointing to overall economic conditions and pressure to increase revenue, “the report found that the number of sustainability projects being implemented, as opposed to merely planned, was down 8% from last year.”

But self-reporting is tricky: 59% of the survey respondents divulged that they also exaggerated their ESG endeavors.

To hold these organizations more accountable, “that's going to take data, and startups could help with that,” write Tim and Ron.

Read More

Read more stories on TechCrunch.com

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California Today: What the Colorado River deal means for California

The plan would "mean new reductions for California," says The New York Times reporter Christopher Flavelle.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Tuesday. What a breakthrough deal on Colorado River water means for California. Plus, botanists are searching for rare California wildflowers after the rains.

Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the country, is formed on the Colorado River at the Hoover Dam. The reservoir's water level has significantly dropped, along with the river's.Matthew Reamer for The New York Times

Finally, a deal.

After a standoff that lasted months over how to keep the depleted Colorado River from running completely dry, an agreement was announced on Monday: California, Arizona and Nevada will each take less water from the river, which supplies drinking water to 40 million Americans, irrigates 5.5 million acres of farmland and helps power millions of homes and businesses.

In recent years, the flow of the Colorado River has shrunk by one-third from its historical average because of drought, population growth and climate change. One expert called the diminishing water supply in the Colorado Basin a "slow-motion disaster."

To avoid catastrophe, the Biden administration told the seven Western states that rely on the river — California, Nevada, Arizona, Wyoming, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah — to come up with a collective plan by Jan. 31 to reduce the amount of water they drew from the Colorado. But the states blew past that deadline.

The federal government responded by threatening to make cuts unilaterally, but the deal announced this week should prevent that.

"The charitable account is that water negotiations are complicated, and states needed time to reach an agreement they could live with," said my colleague Christopher Flavelle, who reported on the deal. "It's also possible that states were unable or unwilling to commit to significant reductions in water use until they feared the federal government might otherwise impose cuts on them — a point that was fast approaching."

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Under the new agreement, most of the reductions would be made by water districts, farm operators, cities and Native American tribes in California, Nevada and Arizona, which would take less water from the river in exchange for $1.2 billion in federal grants. The three states, which receive their share of the river's water from Lake Mead, the reservoir formed by the Hoover Dam, also agreed to make additional cuts that were not tied to payments.

Overall, the reductions called for in the deal would save about three million acre-feet of water from now through 2026 — enough to supply six million to nine million households for a year. The deal still has to be approved by the federal government, and it remains unclear how the cuts would be shared among the states.

California has typically received the largest allocation of water from the river, and we don't yet know how the pain will be spread among residential and agricultural areas in the state. Southern California is immensely reliant on the Colorado River, which supplies irrigation water for Imperial County and drinking water for Los Angeles, San Diego and other cities.

California is in a relatively good position this year to absorb cuts, because our extremely wet winter left behind an unusually large snowpack in the mountains. But deciding what to do after the plan expires in 2026 will be far more difficult, because the odds of such a wet winter recurring are so slim, Christopher told me.

Negotiations over what to do after 2026 are set to begin next month.

For more:

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Purple owl's clover in a field in Kern County.Daniel Dorsa for The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

She's out to save rare wildflowers, but first she has to find them.

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Farmers in places like Vietnam are having to find new ways to grow rice.Thanh Nguyen for The New York Times

The rest of the news

  • Reimagining rice: Climate change is threatening the future of rice. Faced with evolving hazards, plant breeders and farmers are finding new ways forward.
  • Hawaiian exodus: Las Vegas has a growing community of Native Hawaiians who have moved there in pursuit of something their ancestral islands no longer offer: affordable housing.
  • Influencer barbers: Lionel Harris, known professionally as Brownie Blendz, is among an emerging class of influencer barbers who are using social media to take the longstanding tradition of Black barbershops to prosperous new heights.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Luxury farming: At the Flamingo Estate, you can find some highly sought-after botanical goods — including a 6.5-ounce jar of dried strawberries dusted with guajillo chile and lime that costs $80.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Caltrans unearths Indigenous burials: Indigenous leaders have long warned that the land slated for Caltrans's Owens Valley highway project included burial grounds that are thousands of years old. Now, more than 30 human skeletons have been unearthed there, and tribes are demanding that the state halt construction and reroute the project, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Kings River drowning: The body of a 4-year-old boy was found on Monday in the Kings River, a day after his 8-year-old sister died when the two siblings were carried off by the river current, The Associated Press reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Computer chips: A major semiconductor supplier plans to reinvigorate the computer chip production industry in Silicon Valley by building a large research facility near Santa Clara.
  • Shooting near federal building: Two people were wounded in a shooting near the Phillip Burton Federal Building in San Francisco, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
George Rose/Getty Images

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Margie Shamonsky, who recommends Death Valley National Park:

"Fascinating geology, great camping, unique and interesting history, huge variety of elevation and ecologic zones, excellent rock and fossil hunting, long quiet drives through huge open spaces, magical lighting and awesome stars at night."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Bioluminescent plankton lighting up the shoreline at Dockweiler State Beach in 2020.Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

And before you go, some good news

Patrick Coyne, a photographer from Torrance, has spent years searching for bioluminescent waves in Southern California, The East Bay Times reports.

Early Friday morning at the Manhattan Beach Pier, Coyne captured the glowing, electric blue waves for the first time since 2020. "I'm thrilled it's back," he wrote about the phenomenon in an Instagram caption accompanying a video of the stunning, iridescent water.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Johnna Margalotti and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

Good morning.

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(This article is part of the California Today newsletter. Sign up to get it delivered to your inbox.)

Here's what else to know today

  • Bullet lists are now supported once again in the new design system.

And Finally …

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California Today goes live at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time weekdays. Tell us what you want to see: CAtoday@nytimes.com. Were you forwarded this email? Sign up for California Today here and read every edition online here.

Jill Cowan grew up in Orange County, graduated from U.C. Berkeley and has reported all over the state, including the Bay Area, Bakersfield and Los Angeles — but she always wants to see more. Follow along here or on Twitter.

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