Burgum stumbles while Trump pulls focus

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Aug 23, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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FILE - Republican presidential candidate North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum speaks during a town hall meeting with employees at Rueter's Equipment, June 9, 2023, in Elkhart, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum still plans to attend the debate candidate walk-through on site in Milwaukee this afternoon. | Charlie Neibergall, File/AP Photo

BURGUM FINDS HIS ACHILLES’ HEEL — North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM “suffered a high-grade tear of his Achilles tendon” during a basketball game with staffers yesterday, sending him to the hospital and raising doubts about his participation in tonight’s GOP presidential debate, CNN’s Dana Bash, Veronica Stracqualursi and Shania Shelton scooped. Burgum is using crutches as a result and plans to attend the candidate walk-through on site in Milwaukee this afternoon, though there are conflicting reports about how definite his attendance tonight is.

“Well, it looks like there’s another podium available, so maybe I can slide in there,” responded LARRY ELDER, who’s still protesting his exclusion from the debate with plans to file an FEC complaint today.

The other candidates are preparing in their own ways: MIKE PENCE plans to “wield a knife,” as much as one can with a strategy called subtle and careful. … NIKKI HALEY is listening to ’80s hits: “Joan Jett, Queen, Def Leppard, Go Gos, etc.” … And away from the debate stage, DONALD TRUMP’s team is poking fun at the debate as “an audition to be a part of President Trump’s team in his second term,” sending prominent Hill surrogates to Wisconsin and putting out a new ad that highlights Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ “listless vessels” comment.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM — He may not be in Milwaukee, but Trump’s political and legal maelstrom is still pulling plenty of focus today.

The former president spent last night at a Bedminster, N.J., fundraiser for Jan. 6 defendants, NBC’s Gary Grumbach and Vaughn Hillyard report — indicating that he’s not backing down from embracing the GOP’s most extreme factions.

And despite efforts to dissuade him, Trump keeps gravitating to controversial and fringe figures, limiting how much professionalism and stability some of his staffers can impose on his campaign, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Jackie Alemany report. There are implications not just for his political future but for his legal strategy, too. Former One America News anchor NATALIE HARP has become one of his closest aides, while staffer LIZ HARRINGTON’s 100-page report on false voter fraud claims almost turned into a big news conference. And Trump is spending time with or listening to LAURA LOOMER, ROGER STONE, DICK MORRIS and more.

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — RUDY GIULIANI is expected to turn himself in to Fulton County, Ga., authorities today, AP’s Kate Brumback reports from Atlanta. One of 19 people indicted for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election, Giuliani said he’s “fighting for justice” and “feeling very, very good about it” as he left his home in New York to travel to Georgia.

Giuliani will be accompanied by BERNIE KERIK, CBS’ Graham Kates adds. And Giuliani’s attorney wants to meet with Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS before he officially surrenders.

— SIDNEY POWELL was granted $100,000 bond in Georgia today, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jozsef Papp reports.

— And DAVID SHAFER isn’t ashamed of his mugshot. CATHY LATHAM, RAY SMITH and KEN CHESEBRO also all turned themselves in late yesterday or today.

Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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2024 WATCH

QUITE THE TURNAROUND — As Republicans fully embrace early voting in a major shift from its Trump-era denigration, the RNC has launched a “Bank Your Vote” campaign to try to boost awareness of absentee and early voting methods, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scoops. Among the ads will be a 30-second spot on the Rumble debate livestream tonight that features RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL, multiple presidential candidates (even Trump!) and other prominent Republicans. They’re all urging GOP voters to get their ballots in early. That’s a big change from Trump’s years of falsely equating early/absentee voting with election fraud, which some Republicans think backfired on the party in the last couple of cycles.

WARNING SIGN FOR BIDEN — Democrats are growing worried that President JOE BIDEN’s standing with Black voters, already diminished in 2020, has slipped even further since then, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo, Amie Parnes and Dan Merica report. Multiple recent surveys have shown Trump at about 20% support among Black voters against Biden, way up from the 11% he got in the election. And though plenty of Democrats say they aren’t freaking out yet, there are also concerns about turnout and Green Party presidential candidate CORNEL WEST.

FUN ONE — NYT fashion critic Vanessa Friedman has a fascinating piece on campaign merch and debate swag — and how the channels of political influence flow in either direction through a sweatshirt or cap. Not only could a viral moment at tonight’s debate show up on an online shop by tomorrow; the campaigns also learn from what flies off the digital shelves. “Campaign store offerings have essentially become Rorschach tests for the electorate: What people buy, the slogans that get their shopping juices flowing, help determine how the candidates sell their ideas.” VIVEK RAMASWAMY is pivoting from anti-wokeness to “Revolutions” merch, Pence is “too honest,” and DeSantis hawks anti-Biden baby outfits.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — A new composition of South Carolina’s Supreme Court, now the country’s only high court without any women, today reversed course and upheld Republicans’ six week-abortion ban, The Post and Courier’s Seanna Adcox reports from Columbia. That will allow the near-total block on abortions to go into effect after a monthslong suspension. The majority opinion said the court had to respect the legislature’s determination that the “state has a compelling interest in protecting the lives of unborn children.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — Costa Rican President RODRIGO CHAVES will visit the White House next week for talks with Biden, Bloomberg’s Eric Martin and Jennifer Jacobs report. Regional migration and Chinese influence will be among the topics of discussion.

 

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

 
 

MORE POLITICS

NOTABLE QUOTABLE — Ohio Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE is “likely” to receive Trump’s endorsement in the GOP Senate primary — or so he claims to Jewish Insider.

NOT WAKING UP — Recent surveys show Republicans’ anti-wokeness crusade in the private sector falling flat with some voters, Jordan Wolman and Jasper Goodman report. Even among many Republicans, taking on environmental and social concerns within businesses smacks of excessive government interference in the private sector — not great news for Ramaswamy and DeSantis, the two presidential contenders who have highlighted ESG a lot.

AD WARS — The Club for Growth Action is putting out a new ad supporting Rep. JIM BANKS’ (R-Ind.) Senate bid, the Indianapolis Star’s Brittany Carloni reports. It’ll run in Indiana digitally and on TV around the presidential debate tonight.

SURVEY SAYS — “Democrats and Republicans deeply divided on extreme weather, Post-UMD poll finds,” by WaPo’s Amudalat Ajasa, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin: “[W]hen asked if they think climate change is a major factor in those extremely hot days, 35 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say it is, compared with 85 percent of those who lean Democratic. … The vast majority of scientists have found that human activity has exacerbated the effects of climate change.”

POLICY CORNER

THE MOONSHOT — “Biden admin invests $24M in researching mRNA to fight cancer,” by Axios’ Tina Reed: “The project, led by Emory University in Atlanta … [is] the first award from the first solicitation for proposals through the Advanced Research Project Agency for Health, or ARPA-H, which was created last year to accelerate medical breakthroughs.”

WASTE, FRAUD AND ABUSE — A major new Justice Department crackdown on Covid relief fraud over the past three months has comprised 718 “law enforcement actions” over $836 million that was allegedly bilked from the federal government, WaPo’s Tony Romm reports. That still is just a fraction of the fraud that authorities say took place while the government doled out unprecedented amounts of aid in the early days of the pandemic. “But lawmakers have repeatedly ignored the president’s requests for money to fight fraud, while underfunding the budgets at the Justice Department and other top federal watchdog agencies. Instead, the two parties have sniped at each other politically.”

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here.

 
 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

EVAN GERSHKOVICH LATEST — Russian authorities today requested to extend the WSJ reporter’s pretrial detention beyond Aug. 30, WSJ’s Kate Vtorygina and Ann Simmons report. Gershkovich has now been behind bars for five months on what the U.S. considers a trumped-up espionage allegation. The Russian security service’s attempt to extend his detention will go to a hearing tomorrow.

THE ECONOMY

MEGATREND — These days, the minimum wage barely matters for most Americans: In a tight labor market, even low-paying jobs are doling out way more than they’re required to by law, NYT’s Ben Casselman and Lydia DePillis report. This year, about 68,000 people earned minimum wage, down from well above 1.5 million in 2010. “As a result, the minimum wage has faded from the economic policy debate,” apart from a handful of localities where higher minimum wages have a little more impact. “The question is what will happen when the labor market cools” — and workers could find themselves with much less power.

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Olivia Troye will be executive director of 97Percent. She is a National Counterterrorism Center, DOE, DHS, Mike Pence and Trump White House alum. … Justin Discigil is now senior political director with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, focusing on comms and digital ahead of the state legislative elections. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas). … Danielle Decker is now director of intergovernmental affairs at the Commerce Department. She previously was deputy director of intergovernmental and external affairs at the Interior Department and is a Kamala Harris alum. …

… Josh Mogil is now counsel in DOJ’s Office of Legislative Affairs. He most recently was an attorney at WilmerHale. … Wyatt Dietrick is now VP of polling and data analysis for National Public Affairs. He previously was a regional data director for the RNC. … Avery Blank is now counsel for Senate Homeland Security Committee Dems. She most recently got her master’s of law in tech law and policy at Georgetown.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Bert Kaufman, senior adviser at Redpoint Advisors and an Obama Commerce alum, and Zoé Friedland, an attorney in the special litigation section at the D.C. Public Defender Service, welcomed Clara Mae Kaufland on Aug. 6. She joins big sister Eliza. PicAnother pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow

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California Today: What rain from Tropical Storm Hilary means for the state’s fire risk

The 2023 wildfire season was already off to a slow start, and the soaking from the tropical storm may mean that some areas will receive an additional reprieve.
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By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Wednesday. What the drenching from Tropical Storm Hilary means for fire season. Plus, Texas sent migrants into California's storm emergency.

A swollen San Diego River on Monday.John Francis Peters for The New York Times

As most Californians know all too well, the rain that drenched the state this week was extreme and often record-breaking.

As Tropical Storm Hilary passed through California, more rain fell in San Diego and Los Angeles on Sunday than on any other August day on record. The same was true in the desert city of Palm Springs, which received about 70 percent of its annual average precipitation in a 24-hour period, according to Mark Moede, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's San Diego office.

"You look at those numbers, and you have to look at it twice to say, 'Is this really real?'" Moede told me.

Hilary arrived during what is usually California's driest time of year, and the peak of the state's fire season. Seven of the 20 largest wildfires in California history started in August.

This raises a question: What does all the rain mean for fire risk this year?

California has had some particularly horrific fire seasons over the past decade, but 2023 has been off to a relatively calm start. Roughly 161,000 acres have burned in the state so far, compared with an average of 801,000 acres by this point in the previous five years, according to Cal Fire, the state's fire agency. Experts have credited an extraordinarily wet winter that was followed by an unusually cool spring and early summer.

Conditions appeared to be shifting more recently, with hotter temperatures and increasingly parched vegetation as the summer wore on. A cluster of fires that broke out this month near the Oregon border has grown into the year's biggest blaze so far.

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But if you're in Southern California, the recent rain has dampened the fire danger, at least for the next several weeks, experts say. Brush and foliage that had dried out since the spring has been replenished by the drenching, particularly in the mountainous regions most prone to wildfires.

"This has a really big fire-squashing effect," Park Williams, a hydroclimatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told me. "I think this storm was big enough that the chances of really big fires in 2023 are substantially reduced in Southern California."

The southeastern part of the state, in particular, will see that benefit. But Hilary did not do nearly as much for the Bay Area, the Central Coast or the northwest corner of the state, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at U.C.L.A.

The rain that fell on Sunday in the Sierra Nevada "is one of the best kinds of weather you can get this time of year to attenuate fire season," Swain said in an online briefing this week. "There's likely to be a prolonged reprieve for weeks, at least, in Southern California and in places that got soaked on the eastern side of the Sierra."

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Robert Carvalho, a spokesman for Cal Fire, agreed that the storm probably diminished the fire risk in some parts of the state, but he emphasized that some danger remained. Exceptionally dry places won't suddenly become normal, healthy landscapes because of one storm, he said. And a period of hot, dry weather in the next few months could still result in major fires later this year, he added.

"If you have a tree that hasn't had rain in a while, just because you gave it gallons and gallons of water doesn't mean the fuel moisture will go right back up," Carvalho said.

Dry, fast-moving Santa Ana winds in the autumn could quickly parch vegetation again and make any fires more likely to balloon in size, Swain said.

Even so, he emphasized the break for Southern California that arrived with Hilary's rains, particularly following so many recent severe fire seasons and at a time when much of the world has been breaking all sorts of heat, fire and flood records.

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"We're getting a bit of a reprieve this year, but unfortunately the reprieve I think is going to be more of the exception than the norm going forward," he said. "Enjoy it while we can."

For more:

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The drag queen Kochina Rude distributing Narcan at the Oasis nightclub in San Francisco.Chloe Aftel for The New York Times

The rest of the news

Southern California

  • Texas shipped another busload of migrants who had crossed the border from Mexico to Los Angeles, where they arrived in the midst of Tropical Storm Hilary.
  • The president of Occidental College announced that he would step down after receiving a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, The Los Angeles Times reports.

Central California

Northern California

The immersive light show Sensorio in Paso Robles.Patrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Phylene Wiggins, who lives in Carpinteria. Phylene recommends visiting Paso Robles to experience the immersive light show Sensorio:

"Sensorio is an amazing outdoor work of art that covers approximately 15 acres of hills in the Paso Robles area. Using multicolored LED lights, it incorporates a variety of forms that are placed all over the hills and change colors. Arriving at dusk and letting the lights emerge as the sun goes down is ideal. There are walkways that allow people of all abilities to enjoy the show."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Aria Aber and Noah Robert Warren.Kannetha Brown

And before you go, some good news

In February 2021, Noah Robert Warren asked Aria Aber to take a walk with him around Lake Merritt in Oakland, where they both lived.

The couple, both of whom are poets and published authors, were friends on social media but had never met in person. Though Aber didn't initially regard their walk as a date, she immediately felt something for Warren.

A few days later, Warren asked Aber to dinner. They both told The New York Times about the protracted silence that occurred before she agreed.

"I felt like I was facing a really big decision, intuitively," Aber, 32, said. "Like I already knew something life-changing would occur if I said yes to the dinner date."

She did say yes. And ultimately, something life-changing did happen: The two tied the knot this month.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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