Coronavirus Briefing: Waves of Infection

Prepare for an ebb and flow of outbreaks over months, and possible years.

View in browser|nytimes.com May 8, 2020

An informed guide to the global outbreak, with the latest developments and expert advice about prevention and treatment.

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The New York Times

By Jonathan Wolfe and Lara Takenaga

The U.S. unemployment rate hit 14.7 percent, and 20.5 million jobs were lost in April — devastation not seen since the Great Depression. President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence will be tested daily, after people close to both of them tested positive for the virus this week. A 5-year-old in New York City has died of a mysterious condition linked to the coronavirus. Get the latest updates here, plus maps, a tracker for U.S. metro areas, and full coverage.

Prepare for waves of infection

It's becoming clear that the coronavirus is not going to simply vanish after restrictions are lifted, epidemiologists say, despite the recent optimistic forecast from the White House.

Instead, it's going to be with us for a while — certainly for months, and possibly years. To understand what our future looks like, it may be helpful to think of the virus's trajectory like a rolling wave.

A recent analysis from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota describes the various shapes that wave might take.

The first scenario shows an initial wave of cases — the current one — followed by "peaks and valleys" that shrink over time.

In the second, a larger "fall peak," or possibly a winter peak, and subsequent smaller waves come after the current one. This is similar to what happened during the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic.

The third possibility shows an intense spring peak that turns into a "slow burn," with smaller ups and downs.

What each of these scenarios shows is that a single round of social distancing will probably not be sufficient in the long term. Instead, researchers say, we should be prepared for occasional restrictions and lockdowns over the next few years, until there's widespread immunity or an effective vaccine.

Dive in: The health news site Stat describes each scenario in stark detail. "There is virtually no chance Covid-19 will end when the world bids good riddance to a calamitous 2020," it concludes.

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Takeaways from the unemployment numbers

The jobs numbers for April were released this morning by the Labor Department, and they were about as dismal as expected: The economy shed 20.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7 percent — devastation not seen since the Great Depression.

The situation was even worse for minorities. Among African-American workers, the unemployment rate was 16.7 percent, and for Latinos it was 18.9 percent. All told, only about half of all Americans have a job — the lowest level on record — and it's expected to get worse.

While the latest job losses extend across every major sector including manufacturing, retail and even white-collar industries, there was one area of the economy that was particularly surprising to see struggling: health care.

Despite the deluge of patients filling intensive care units, the sector lost more than 1.4 million jobs last month. That's because the government asked hospitals to stop elective surgeries like hip replacements and operations on slow-growing cancers and focus on the pandemic, and, it turns out, those procedures are much more profitable than fighting a deadly disease.

The battle to breathe

Human lungs are extremely complicated machines — and so are the ventilators that keep them going in patients with severe coronavirus infections. Here's a visual exploration of how the two work together.

Reopenings

The government of Australia outlined a cautious, three-step plan to reopen the country by July. Norway became the first country in Europe to allow movie theaters to reopen; it plans to reopen high schools, bars and most of the country by mid-June. The governor of New Jersey said that he would be "shocked" if the state's beaches weren't opened by Memorial Day.

Here's a roundup of current restrictions in all 50 states.

What you can do

Address financial issues with your children. Here's a guide to talking about job losses and economic hardship. Try to resist selling a silver lining, and speak directly to hard truths.

Make your garden grow. If it's spring where you live, the time is now to start planting your fruits and vegetables. Here's how to grow a fabulous garden of any size.

What else we're following

The Mexican government is not reporting hundreds, possibly thousands, of deaths from the virus in Mexico City, dismissing local officials who have tallied more than three times as many fatalities than the country publicly acknowledges. The Food and Drug Administration has granted emergency authorization for the first at-home saliva test for the coronavirus. Polls show Americans want the virus contained more than they want to reopen the economy. A new study suggests that warm weather will have little to no effect on stopping the spread of the virus because most of the world has not built up an immunity to it. "I cry night and day." The diary of one woman's two-month quest to get unemployment in New York. Staying at home has caused many people to ditch their makeup, hair-care and skin-care routines — and companies are feeling the effects.

What you're doing

I have been creating a photo book during the pandemic. It is a combination of news headlines and photos of our family taken each day. Someday my children can give it to their grandchildren when they study the pandemic in school.

— Kenneth S. Stewart, Peachtree Corners, Ga.

Let us know how you're dealing with the outbreak. Send us a response here, and we may feature it in an upcoming newsletter.

Tom Wright-Piersanti contributed to today's newsletter.

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