Coronavirus Briefing: Weighing the Risks

Some countries have decided to reopen even as outbreaks continue to rage.

An informed guide to the global outbreak, with the latest developments and expert advice about prevention and treatment.

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Reopening as infections surge

The number of coronavirus cases worldwide is rising faster than ever and the global peak may be months away, but many countries are choosing to end their lockdowns and reopen their economies.

At the beginning of the outbreak, governments rushed to impose lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus, then watched as their economies withered. World leaders, particularly in developing countries, say that continuing the lockdowns may result in economic catastrophe, particularly among their poor citizens.

So the thinking has changed: Instead of ordering people inside, governments have decided to reopen and accept a greater amount of illness and death.

Our colleagues across the world are already witnessing the shift. In hard-hit countries like Mexico, Russia, Iran and Pakistan, reporters are seeing fuller streets and a sharp increase in close contact among people. Our correspondent in New Delhi, Jeffrey Gettleman, told us that traffic in the Indian capital was back, along with the dreaded air pollution, which had disappeared during the country’s lockdown.

“The lockdown is now practically over,” he told us. But the outbreak seemed far from over. “When I step outside my apartment, I hear ambulance sirens coming from the main road near my house,” he said. “The biggest cities are running out of hospital beds and the peak is still several weeks away.”

In the U.S., while cases overall have reached a plateau, 21 states have seen an uptick, a trend that some experts and public officials have attributed to recent reopenings. And in Washington, politicians in both parties have largely shifted their attention away from the virus.

Public health officials have argued that regions around the world may need to temporarily close down again — perhaps a number of times. But amid the worst economic crisis in generations, that’s a risk some governments may not be willing to take.

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Is it realistic to expect a vaccine soon?

Scientists around the world are working on more than 135 vaccines for the virus. But producing one in just 12 to 18 months, the oft-cited timeline, would be an unprecedented feat.

To understand the enormity of the challenge and what the future may hold, The Times assembled a virtual round table with five experts. Here are some of their key points.

How could researchers come up with a vaccine in less time than the years (or decades) it has historically taken?

For Covid-19, developers are talking about performing as many steps in parallel as possible, as opposed to sequentially. For example, multiple vaccine manufacturers are willing to take enormous financial risks — planning for large-scale manufacturing upfront, even before knowing whether the vaccine works or not.” — Dan Barouch, virologist and professor at Harvard Medical School

The process could be sped up even further, but doing so would likely be dangerous.

“One ethically fraught possibility that some experts have floated is the use of so-called challenge trials, in which young, healthy people are given a vaccine and then deliberately exposed to the virus.” — Siddhartha Mukherjee, associate professor of medicine at Columbia University

The panelists were hopeful after seeing the scientific community unite against the virus.

“There’s been more openness and sharing than I’ve seen in past crises like Ebola or Zika or H1N1. Regulatory authorities around the world are coming together in ways that are very, very important to reduce barriers and to make sure that they’re bringing the best possible science to bear on decision making.” — Margaret Hamburg, foreign secretary of the National Academy of Medicine

Follow the race: The Times published a new tracker that will follow the status of every vaccine that has reached human trials, as well as some promising ones still being tested in cells or animals.

Reopenings

  • Tour guides in Italy have staged protests to raise awareness about the hardship they face as the country emerges from lockdown.
  • As people in New York City slowly return to the subway, they’re finding a changed system — scented with lemon.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain announced that single adults can spend the night at another house in a “support bubble” beginning Saturday, the BBC reports.
  • AMC Theaters, the world’s largest cineplex operator, said “almost all” of its locations in the U.S. and Britain would reopen in July.

What else we’re following

What you’re doing

My partner and I are catching up on our drag history. We started with Netflix’s “The Queen,” which encompasses raw footage from a drag show in New York City, two years before the Stonewall uprising. We then moved on to “I Am Divine,” and are now looking at more recent drag queens in “Moving Parts,” a documentary on Trixie Mattel.
— John Bonanni, Cape Cod, Mass.

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