Coronavirus Briefing: The Pandemic's Shifting Shape

As the virus continues to rage, it's clear that tamping down an outbreak does not mean victory.

An informed guide to the global outbreak, with the latest developments and expert advice about prevention and treatment.

(Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

The New York Times

Curves and waves: The pandemic’s shifting shape

“Flatten the curve” was the popular refrain early in the pandemic, as officials across the U.S. began issuing stay-at-home orders to stop the rapid spread of infection. But as the virus continues to rage and the world awaits a vaccine, it’s clear that tamping down an outbreak — no matter how quickly — does not mean victory. Instead, it’s often a waiting game until another wave comes crashing down.

For Washington State, that situation is all too familiar. After having the first confirmed case in the U.S. in January, it became an early epicenter of the country’s outbreak and imposed a swift lockdown, which is credited with preventing high rates of infection and death. While the virus began surging across the South and West, Washington’s case counts remained relatively low into June, and bars and salons started reopening.

But the virus has returned with a vengeance, putting the state’s reopening on pause. Since mid-June, Washington has reported an average of 700 new cases per day — its highest levels since the pandemic began. The surge is largely being driven by two factors: young people, and an outbreak in Yakima County, an agricultural area with many essential workers.

Outbreaks that started slower in some countries are taking off, and second waves are also rolling out around the world. Hong Kong is facing what some call its “third wave” — the most serious yet. The city reported a record 67 new cases on Thursday, a vast majority of which were attributed to community spread, a worrying development. (When Hong Kong set its last daily record, in late March, most infections were linked to travel.)

New York’s curve, as decoration. Of the state’s harrowing fight with the virus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has said: “One mountain was enough. The last thing we need is to see this virus spike again.”

That metaphoric mountain stars in Mr. Cuomo’s new, artsy political poster, which portrays essential workers (and his kids and dog) pulling down “the curve,” along with myriad other odd details. Our colleague Amanda Rosa, who reports on New York, unpacked the symbolism.

Can you get Covid-19 twice?

We’ve recently come across a few stories about doctors who’ve said their patients were reinfected with coronavirus after testing negative — a worrying prospect that could impact the effectiveness of vaccines and our ability to reach herd immunity.

To understand more about the possibility, we turned to Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter for The Times.

How long does immunity last?

We don’t know. One of my sources put it to me this way yesterday: The only way to know how long immunity lasts is to wait that amount of time. And we’re not there yet.

Is reinfection real?

It’s possible to get Covid twice, but that’s possible for any virus, ever. Some people will not, just as a matter of statistics, make strong immune responses to a virus, so they remain vulnerable. And that may also be true for coronavirus.

Still, the virus began circulating in China almost eight months ago now, and in New York not long after that. So if reinfection were possible this early on, and in a lot of people, we would have seen it already. We’re going to hear more about possible reinfections because it’s affecting so many people and we are looking at it so closely.

What’s going on with the reported cases of reinfection?

We don’t know for sure. They may be these rare cases. Or somebody who thought they had recovered may not have fully recovered. It may be that the tests were faulty and gave a false negative. It may be that their immune system was keeping the virus down to levels at which the test wasn’t picking it up for a while. It may be that there wasn’t a lot of virus in their nose, or wherever they put in the swab. There are a lot of possible explanations.

Tracking treatments

As doctors and scientists scramble to understand Covid-19, a flood of remedies have been offered up as treatment for the disease — some better than others, a few just bunk.

To help you understand the effectiveness and safety of the available options, The Times created a treatment tracker of the 20 most-talked-about treatments, grouped according to approach and ranked according to their level of promise. Some block the virus, some mimic the immune system, while others counter a dangerously overactive immune response or offer physical assistance or healing.

Among the most promising treatments are the antiviral medication remdesivir, the steroid dexamethasone and positioning patients facedown to open their lungs. In the pseudoscience or fraud category: silver-based products and using UV light on the body.

Resurgences

What else we’re following

What you’re doing

We are raising butterflies from eggs taken from milkweed we planted last year. The first one flew away from our caterpillar farm today. Thirty-nine left to emerge. It’s a great feeling setting one free, when we’re confined by a virus.
— James Hercules Sutton, Des Moines

Let us know how you’re dealing with the outbreak. Send us a response here, and we may feature it in an upcoming newsletter.

Email your thoughts to briefing@nytimes.com. Did a friend forward you the briefing? Sign up here.

Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance.

You received this email because you signed up for Coronavirus Briefing from The New York Times.

To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.

Subscribe to The Times

Connect with us on:

facebooktwitterinstagram

Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices

The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

No comments:

Post a Comment