POLITICO Playbook: A trillion-dollar staring contest. Who will blink first?

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Jul 28, 2020 View in browser   By Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer Presented by Listen to today's Audio Briefing DRIVING THE DAY HIGH-STAKES LEGISLATIVE DEBATES aren't always battles of ideas. They don't necessarily test the power of persuasion. They're staring contests between powerful political leaders who are trying to humiliate their opponents, and squeeze as much out of them as possible while seeking to achieve a political and policy victory that's palatable to the majority of their internal constituency -- their colleagues -- and their external constituency, the voters. NO ONE EXCELS at these affairs like Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL and Speaker NANCY PELOSI -- the respective party leaders. And no one has watched from the sidelines and admired the negotiating game -- and longed to get in it -- like MARK MEADOWS, the former House Republican from North Carolina and current White House chief of staff. WASHINGTON IS NOW KICKING OFF what's shaping up to be a real cliffhanger over another round of coronavirus relief 98 DAYS before Election Day. A FEW IMPORTANT THINGS HAPPENED MONDAY, and they set the stage for what's to come. After much haggling over the weekend between the White House and Senate Republicans -- and plenty of bruised feelings -- MCCONNELL released his negotiation marker Monday. THE DETAILS matter less at this point because the real talks began Monday evening between PELOSI, MEADOWS, Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN and Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER. ( MCCONNELL didn't join in, but in order for a bill to become a law, it has to go through him.) MEADOWS is seen by Republicans as a counterbalance to MNUCHIN, who has earned a reputation of working well with Democrats and backchanneling with SCHUMER. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS of aides in both parties, on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, is that Democrats have a healthy negotiating edge. REPUBLICAN senators have already conceded that half of their conference is going to be against this bill. Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) helpfully reminded reporters that "there is significant resistance to yet another trillion dollars." So to get anything done, Democrats will be absolutely crucial. MONDAY NIGHT'S PELOSI-MEADOWS-SCHUMER-MNUCHIN MEETING was illustrative in laying out the hurdles. PELOSI said she isn't interested in a short-term package. She said new money for mail-in voting needs to be in this bill for it to have a chance to get through the House. ( PELOSI also has demands on SNAP and OSHA regulations, but those are probably easier to find consensus on.) BTW … CLASSIC PELOSI: SCHUMER had to use the restroom during the meeting, which was held in the speaker's office suite on the House side of the Capitol, and he asked PELOSI where it was. PELOSI asked MEADOWS to show him the way, but then quickly said, "Is it wrong for me to assume you still remember? You know, from the Boehner years." ANYWAY … REPUBLICANS are pushing for a liability overhaul (their red line); a bonus for workers who retain or hire employees; and money for schools. They seem open to giving on rent forbearance, but they haven't signaled a ton of wiggle room on unemployment insurance. A QUICK DEAL would probably benefit PELOSI AND DEMOCRATS BECAUSE … … ENHANCED FEDERAL UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS run out Friday. That is the deadline driving this. MEADOWS and MCCONNELL are at 70% of lost wages, and PELOSI and SCHUMER call that woefully inadequate. Dems are resisting extending unemployment while negotiations continue. THEORETICALLY, this deadline can be the Achilles' heel for both parties. Senate Republicans are going to want to keep this money flowing because their majority is at risk. Senate Republicans say House Democratic front-liners are in the same tough spot, so they'll be eager for a deal. THE COMMON DENOMINATOR that can get through both chambers is the current policy -- $600 extra -- but it's Tuesday. We're far from there at this point. That would also cause a massive split in the Senate GOP. -- STATE AND LOCAL CASH might be a bigger problem than currently envisioned. Republicans want to give states flexibility with money already appropriated, and Dems want new dollars. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND, here are three scenarios for what could happen next: 1) RUSH TO GET A DEAL: The two sides scramble to reach agreement this week. That's not going to be easy at all. One side would have to cave. 2) GO OVER THE CLIFF: Frankly, it seems likelier than not that Congress will be unable to do anything by Friday. If so, enhanced unemployment benefits will run out, which will scramble all sorts of considerations. 3) SOMETHING SHORT-TERM?: Could both sides agree to a short-term patch -- an enhanced unemployment extension to avoid the Friday deadline -- and then restart the wider negotiations in September? Remember: there's another action-forcing event in September -- government funding runs dry at the end of the month. A short-term deal would require acrobatics -- PELOSI easing on her opposition to it, consent from Republicans and Democrats in the Senate -- and that kind of maneuvering may be hard to come by. NOTABLE QUOTABLES: Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) on why the Trump administration is insisting on money for a new FBI headquarters in this coronavirus stimulus bill: "Good question." (h/t Hill pool) … PELOSI: "[Republicans] didn't have money for food stamps, but they had money for an FBI building just so that they can diminish competition for the president's hotel." -- "New Senate GOP coronavirus bill includes unrelated White House demand for FBI headquarters money," by WaPo's Jonathan O'Connell, Seung Min Kim and Erica Werner THE COVERAGE: POLITICO … WAPO Good Tuesday morning.   A message from the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Congress addressed the affordability of Covid-19 testing and treatment. Cancer care needs the same. It's time to reduce out-of-pocket costs and ensure cost-sharing assistance benefits cancer patients. Congress: cancer patients need you to act quickly to remove hurdles to quality care.   REMEMBERING JOHN LEWIS … ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: "Rep. John Lewis honored as 'the conscience of the Congress' in Capitol ceremony" DRIVING TODAY: MEADOWS and MNUCHIN will be back in the Capitol today. … MCCONNELL will sit down with CNBC's KAYLA TAUSCHE for his first interview on the subject today at 3 p.m. … A.G. BILL BARR testifies before House Judiciary. … SENATE GOP LUNCH is, as usual, today. … FRONTS: NYT … N.Y. POST … WSJ JOHN BRESNAHAN and ANDREW DESIDERIO: "'It's a tough hand': Brutal year gets even worse for McConnell": "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to pull off something of a miracle. "With less than 100 days until voters head to the polls, Senate Republicans are in trouble. More than 30 million Americans are out of work, tens of thousands of businesses are shuttered, and parents across the country are wondering whether they will be able to send their children back to school in the coming weeks. "Now McConnell has to help negotiate another massively complicated coronavirus relief package through a bitterly divided Senate to help address these huge problems. And this time, he faces flak from both his left and right, as Democrats are seeking trillions of dollars more in funding than the Kentucky Republican wants to approve, while a large group of GOP hard-liners opposes new spending altogether. 'I've said to him, "You've got the worst job,"' Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) quipped. 'I wouldn't want his job for anything.'" OUT TODAY … ROBERT DRAPER'S new book: "To Start a War: How the Bush Administration Took America into Iraq" -- NUGGET FROM THE BOOK (page 113, Oval Office conversation on Aug. 1, 2002, between President GEORGE W. BUSH and KING ABDULLAH of Jordan, who had expressed strong opposition to the war): "'Saddam is a bad guy,' Bush snapped. 'My opinion of him hasn't changed. We need to take him down.' With exasperation he continued: 'What will people say thirty years from now? I don't want them to say that the king and I backed away from a showdown— using whatever excuse we could find not to move forward.' "Sitting beside the Jordanian ruler, leaning into his face, Bush's voice rose: 'History has called us. We will affect how the world looks tomorrow!' Composing himself, the president half apologized: 'I'm passionate on the subject. I've dealt with the Europeans on this. All the excuses in the book. They don't get it.' An unwillingness to act would send a disastrous message to adversaries around the world, he added, such as North Korea. 'When I said "axis of evil,"' said Bush, 'I meant it.'" MEMO TO WASHINGTON: TIM ALBERTA goes to Scranton, Pa.: "Trump's Biggest Problem Isn't Wealthy Suburbanites. It's the White Working Class." NAHAL TOOSI: "'It's absolutely serious': Susan Rice vaults to the top of the VP heap": "The chatter is loud enough that allies of others being eyed for the vice presidency are increasingly worried about Rice … Privately, some in California Sen. Kamala Harris' world have indicated that Rice could be Harris' most formidable rival for the vice presidential slot." NYT, A1 … ALEX BURNS: "Susan Rice Wants to Run for Office. Will Her First Campaign Be for V.P.?": "Before ruling out [challenging Sen. Susan Collins in Maine], Ms. Rice had quietly explored the idea of battling Ms. Collins for weeks, seeking advice from seasoned politicians in Maine, friendly operatives in Washington and top advisers to former President Barack Obama, including Valerie Jarrett and the pollster Joel Benenson. Within her political circle, the sincerity of her interest was clear. "In the end, Ms. Rice did not run. But her exploration of the race represented an emphatic declaration of new political aspirations. It was Ms. Rice's first and only examination of what it would mean to become a candidate, and test the appeal of her formidable credentials not to her fellow experts but to voters for whom the National Security Council is a distant and obscure institution. … Ms. Rice, 55, is now among a handful of women under consideration to become Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s running mate. … "The questions that faced Ms. Rice in 2018 presaged, in some respects, those that now surround her as a vice-presidential contender: How much do voters prize government experience, or care about the international stage? Is the country ready, just years after seeming to reject elite expertise with the election of President Trump, to embrace a candidate defined chiefly as an analytical policy mind?" CORONAVIRUS RAGING … More than 4.2 MILLION Americans have contracted Covid-19. … More than 148,000 Americans have died. -- "Experimental COVID-19 vaccine is put to its biggest test," by AP's Lauran Neergard, Michael Hill and Joycelyn Noveck: "The biggest test yet of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine got underway Monday with the first of some 30,000 Americans rolling up their sleeves to receive shots created by the U.S. government as part of the all-out global race to stop the pandemic. … "Final-stage testing of the vaccine, developed by the National Institutes of Health and Moderna Inc., began with volunteers at numerous sites around the U.S. given either a real dose or a dummy without being told which." AP THE LATEST IN PORTLAND … WAPO: "More federal agents dispatched to Portland as protests rise in other cities," by Devlin Barrett, Nick Miroff, Marissa Lang and David Fahrenthold: "The Trump administration is sending more federal agents to Portland, Ore., already the site of aggressive policing tactics that activists and city officials across the country say are inspiring more-violent clashes and re-energizing protests. "The U.S. Marshals Service decided last week to send more deputies to Portland, according to an internal email reviewed by The Washington Post, with personnel beginning to arrive last Thursday night. The Department of Homeland Security is also considering a plan to send an additional 50 U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel to the city, according to senior administration officials involved in the federal response who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. "Such moves would mark a significant expansion of the federal force operating at the Portland federal courthouse — there were 114 federal agents there in mid-July — though it is unclear how many existing personnel could be sent home after the arrival of at least 100 reinforcements, according to internal Marshals emails." WaPo CNN'S MANU RAJU and ALEX ROGERS: "Senate GOP candidates attacked Obama over Ebola but defend Trump on coronavirus pandemic": "In the run-up to the 2014 midterm elections, Republican David Perdue excoriated President Barack Obama over his handling of the Ebola outbreak -- contending that Obama had 'failed to lead' and 'took a serious threat far too lightly.' "Six years later, Perdue, a first-term senator, is on the ballot again in Georgia -- and now is running on the same ticket as a president struggling to get control of a virus far more deadly to the country. "But Perdue has praised Donald Trump, even as the president has repeatedly downplayed the coronavirus, contended it would disappear, called on states to be 'liberated' as they were trying to isolate from the virus, was late to embrace mask wearing and has falsely claimed that more testing is the lone reason for more cases. 'It's a totally different situation,' Perdue told CNN last week when asked about his criticism of Obama in 2014." -- THE FORWARD: "Republican senator deletes ad that made Jewish opponent's nose bigger" HOUSE NEWS … THE DCCC'S independent expenditure arm is reserving another roughly $3 million in TV ads in New York and Texas. The bulk of the buy is $2.2 million on Dallas broadcast. The Democrats are trying to grab retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant's (R-Texas) seat in the northwest Dallas suburbs, but they also have Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in the area. The rest of the buy is New York TV: $476,425 on New York City TV on Long island, which is aimed at the seat being vacated by longtime GOP Rep. Pete King (WLNY and cable), and $310,000 on New York cable aimed at southern Jersey, the tough seat Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) represents. THE NRCC'S chairman -- Rep. TOM EMMER of Minnesota -- will send out this memo this morning about how Republicans are gaining on Democrats in online fundraising. NEW … DOUG COLLINS is going up with his first TV ad attacking Sen. KELLY LOEFFLER. The ad, featuring a Monopoly board and questioning Loeffler's trustworthiness, is running statewide in Georgia on Fox News. The ad BRUTAL FOR MARKEY … BOSTON GLOBE: "Markey spends less time in Mass. than the rest of the delegation," by Victoria McGrane and Liz Goodwin -- ALSO THE GLOBE: "Send Ed Markey back to the Senate" VEEPSTAKES DISPATCH, via NATASHA KORECKI: "Joe Biden was at the Capitol Monday to pay respects to John Lewis, who was lying in state, but he turned heads when he was later spotted chatting with CBC Chair and VP short-lister KAREN BASS. Biden then exited the Capitol flanked by Bass and Rep. CEDRIC RICHMOND (D-La.). In a call shortly afterward, RICHMOND told me, 'What you all think came up, I can promise you, didn't come up at all,' he said, referencing the vice presidential search."     WSJ: "Notre Dame Withdraws as Host of Planned Trump-Biden Debate," by Ken Thomas: "The University of Notre Dame on Monday withdrew as host of the first planned presidential debate in late September, citing the need for public-health precautions because of the coronavirus pandemic. "The Commission on Presidential Debates announced that the Sept. 29 debate, expected to feature President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, will instead be co-sponsored by Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio. The debate will be held at the Health Education Campus, a joint project between the university and clinic, which is serving as a health security adviser to the nonpartisan debate commission." TRUMP'S TUESDAY -- The president has nothing on his schedule.   HAPPENING TOMORROW @ 12 p.m. EDT – A DEEP DIVE INTO 2020 CAMPAIGN POLLING : With less than 100 days remaining until Election Day, it's time for a deep dive into campaign polling with POLITICO senior campaign and elections editor Steven Shepard and national political reporter Laura Barrón-López. Hear from expert pollsters Margie Omero and Jon McHenry on how the polls look today and what they portend for the future, how the industry corrected mistakes made in 2016, and the impact of Covid-19 on their work. REGISTER HERE.     PLAYBOOK READS PHOTO DU JOUR: Members of the Congressional Black Caucus approach the casket of the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), as he lies in state in the Capitol Rotunda on Monday. | Jonathan Ernst - Pool/Getty Images DAN SENOR in the FT: "It is too soon to write off Donald Trump's election chances" AMAZING ANECDOTE, via NYT'S KATIE ROGERS and NOAH WEILAND: "'Randy Levine is a great friend of mine from the Yankees,' Mr. Trump, referring to the president of the baseball team, told reporters on Thursday as Dr. Fauci was preparing to take the mound. 'And he asked me to throw out the first pitch, and I think I'm doing that on Aug. 15 at Yankee Stadium.' "There was one problem: Mr. Trump had not actually been invited on that day by the Yankees, according to one person with knowledge of Mr. Trump's schedule. His announcement surprised both Yankees officials and the White House staff. "But Mr. Trump had been so annoyed by Dr. Fauci's turn in the limelight, an official familiar with his reaction said, that he had directed his aides to call Yankees officials and make good on a longtime standing offer from Mr. Levine to throw out an opening pitch. No date was ever finalized. "After the president's announcement, White House aides scrambled to let the team know that he was actually booked on Aug. 15, although they have not said what he plans to do. Over the weekend, Mr. Trump officially canceled." HAPPENING TODAY -- "Barr faces the Democratic barrage," by Kyle Cheney and Betsy Woodruff Swan: "It took 14 months, but the House Judiciary Committee finally got its man. And after myriad controversies, Attorney General William Barr's long awaited — and repeatedly delayed — testimony to the panel arrives Tuesday at the nadir of trust between Capitol Hill Democrats and the Justice Department. In fact, committee Democrats say they intend to distill their lengthy list of urgent issues down to one theme: that Barr has reoriented DOJ to serve Trump, rather than the nation. … "It's a hearing whose importance has been magnified not least because it's taken more than a year to arrange. Democrats first sought Barr's testimony in May 2019, on the heels of the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report on the Trump campaign's contacts with Russia. But Barr called it off after Chairman Jerry Nadler unveiled plans to allow staff counsel to question him. A subsequent effort for his testimony fell apart in March, after the Covid-19 pandemic overtook the agenda. Finally, Nadler threatened to subpoena Barr last month before the two sides at last agreed to the Tuesday hearing." Barr's opening statement     TROUBLE IN FOGGY BOTTOM -- "Dems torch Pompeo in report ahead of hearing," by Nahal Toosi: "Two days before Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes a long-awaited appearance on Capitol Hill, Senate Democrats plan to release a report that is highly critical of his management of the State Department. "The analysis, shared first with POLITICO, finds that vacancies, turnover and a fear of political retaliation plague the department well into President Donald Trump's first term. At least one key State Department division has seen a significant rise in its staffers considering quitting, while others report myriad morale issues. "The report, titled 'Diplomacy in Crisis: The Trump Administration's Decimation of the State Department,' is produced by the Democratic staff on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It runs more than 40 pages and is a synthesis of surveys, anecdotes, news articles and other data dealing with U.S. diplomacy stretching back to just before Trump took office. The report argues that the coronavirus pandemic has further exposed the dangers of having a weak and strained State Department." POLITICO MEDIAWATCH -- National Review is launching Capital Matters, a new section of its website focused on defending free markets. The initiative will include events and forums in addition to a range of commentary and articles. It's headed by Andrew Stuttaford, National Review's newest fellow, and Kevin Hassett, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.   BECOME A CHINA WATCHER: Across the globe, America's allies are pushing back hard on Beijing as evidence of human rights abuses against Uighurs pile up. How should the U.S. and its allies approach the China challenge? Join the conversation and gain expert insight from informed and influential voices in government, business, law, tech, and academia. China Watcher is as much of a platform as it is a newsletter. Subscribe today.     PLAYBOOKERS Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com. STAFFING UP -- The Trump campaign is adding Steve Cortes as senior adviser for strategy and Greg Manz as comms adviser for strategy. Cortes previously was a spokesman for the America First Action PAC and a talk radio host. Manz previously worked for Steve Bannon's "War Room" show and the Pennsylvania GOP. Both are Trump 2016 alums. TRANSITION -- Aaron Cooke is now chief economist for macroeconomic policy at the Council of Economic Advisers. He most recently was an economist at OMB. ENGAGED -- Freddi Goldstein, who was until recently press secretary for NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, and Alex Cohen-Smith, president of Mitchell Martin Healthcare, got engaged Thursday -- "low key, at our house after dinner." They met in 2017, but things didn't click until the fourth time they met, when they struck up a conversation at a fundraiser hosted by a mutual friend. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Jeff Le, U.S. state and local public policy lead at VMware, and Kelly Gravuer, a biologist at the EPA's Office of Water, welcomed Jacinda Donna Le on Wednesday. She came in at 7 lbs, 7 oz and 20 1/4 inches. Pic … Another pic -- Evan Philipson, AIPAC Florida political director, and Gabriella Philipson, a pediatric clinical pharmacist at Nicklaus Children's Hospital, welcomed Aviva Maisie Philipson on Friday evening. Pic BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Kirsten Fedewa, president of Kirsten Fedewa & Associates. A fun fact people might not know about her: "I am passionate about horses -- especially Arabian horses. I parachuted while at Oxford University -- and decided that horses are the better hobby!" Playbook Q&A BIRTHDAYS: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows is 61 … Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is 54 … WaPo's Beth Reinhard … Scott Pelley is 63 … CNN's Kate Bolduan … Courtney Kube, national security and Pentagon correspondent for NBC … Huma Abedin … Theresa Kehoe … Satish Narayanan (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.) is 77 … Patrick Boland … BuzzFeed's Ruby Cramer … Torrie Miller Matous … Kathy Dedrick … Betsy Werronen … former A.G. Michael Mukasey is 79 … POLITICO's Tanya Snyder and Mandy Fogarty … Kidron Lewis … N.Y. Daily News' Laura Nahmias … Lauren Kaplan … Steve Deace … Chandler Thornton, national chair of the College Republican National Committee … … Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, is 69 (h/t David Andelman) … Juan Guaidó is 37 … Lacey White … Susan Berghoef … Abigail Alger … Sophie White … Shannon Salk … Brad Crowell … Grant Allen … Bill Cheney … Kelly Landis … Kevin Smith of New Hampshire … Ann Tumolo … Susanne Fleek-Green … Jay Zeidman, managing partner at Altitude Ventures … Becky Able … John Lease … Scott Pearson, outgoing executive director of the D.C. Public Charter School Board (h/t Jon Haber) … Sarah Jackson … Sam Mondry-Cohen of the Nats … Colin Hart, senior director of corporate comms at WeWork … George Cook … former Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is 46 … Anne Wojcicki, co-founder and CEO of 23andMe   A message from the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: COVID-19 has shone a spotlight on the significant barriers to affordable health care that cancer patients have long faced. Policymakers took action to address the affordability of COVID-19 testing and treatment. Lawmakers must do the same for cancer patients by removing the red tape of prior authorization and step therapy, reducing out-of-pocket costs, and ensuring cost-sharing assistance directly benefits patients. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc Jake Sherman @JakeSherman   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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