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Nov 03, 2020 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer

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DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPY ELECTION DAY. DONALD JOHN TRUMP is going into today facing a significant chance of becoming the first one-term president in nearly three decades. JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN is pushing into states that supported TRUMP in his quest to become the oldest first-term president, and the 15th former VP to ascend to the Oval Office.

THE THROUGHLINE of this campaign and the last several months of our country's history is the TRUMP administration's handling of the coronavirus and the economic fallout from the pandemic. Nothing more, nothing less. A quarter-million Americans are dead. Millions have gotten the virus. Businesses have been shut down for months. Americans' routines have been flipped upside down. And the White House has said it would do nothing different if given the imagined opportunity. The administration tried to defy science -- and the rest of the developed world -- by suggesting that large gatherings are fine, masks are of questionable efficacy and the virus will disappear on its own in due course. Of course, that won't happen.

TRUMP had a miraculous recovery from Covid-19. Will his political bounceback be as stunning?

THE MOST IMPORTANT story today comes from WAPO'S LENA SUN and JOSH DAWSEY: "Top Trump adviser bluntly contradicts president on covid-19 threat, urging all-out response"

-- HERE'S THE QUOTE YOU NEED TO READ: "'WE ARE ENTERING the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic … leading to increasing mortality,' said the Nov. 2 report from Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force. 'This is not about lockdowns -- It hasn't been about lockdowns since March or April. It's about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.'"

EVEN ON ELECTION DAY, you have government experts saying the TRUMP administration screwed up. TRUMP clearly doesn't like ANTHONY FAUCI, because in his view the doctor spoke out of turn -- "uncalled for" is what we heard earlier this week from White House people. Now BIRX has taken an even harder line.

THERE ARE NO VACCINES at the ready. No widely available therapeutic. No new Covid relief package. No preparation to combat the expected winter spread of this virus.

THIS PRESIDENT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN BEEN OVERWHELMED BY EVENTS. Nothing has broken through in the campaign besides his handling of the coronavirus. Not the trade deal he cut, not the regulations he has rolled back and not the tax legislation he squeezed through Congress, which turned out to be his only major legislative achievement. It's basically been all about Covid-19.

THE ULTIMATE QUESTION is: Do voters believe that the situation truly is cosmic and out of his control, or is it at least partially of his making?

WE WERE RAPPING WITH our colleague JOHN BRESNAHAN about this, and he made a good point: One-term presidents typically get overwhelmed by events. GEORGE H.W. BUSH had a sagging economy. JIMMY CARTER had the hostage crisis in Iran, a lackluster economy and the sense that the U.S. was out of control and on a bad track. LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON had Vietnam.

WILL TRUMP join that group?

TRUMP IN KENOSHA, Wis., via ZEKE MILLER: "This isn't about -- yeah, it is about me, I guess, when you think about it."

AND, EVEN DOWN BALLOT, it is about TRUMP as well. Senate Republicans are bearish about races in Arizona and Colorado, and worried about Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina.

REPUBLICANS believe they'll lose more seats in the House, as well, where they could be facing an early Obama era-size minority. NANCY PELOSI will likely extend her run as speaker, and will wield even more power next year.

 

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AP'S JONATHAN LEMIRE, ZEKE MILLER and ALEXANDRA JAFFE, with a Pittsburgh dateline: "In the closing hours of a campaign shadowed by a once-in-a-century pandemic, President Donald Trump charged across the nation Monday delivering an incendiary but unsupported allegation that the election is rigged, while Democratic challenger Joe Biden pushed to claim states once seen as safely Republican."

-- LEMIRE TWEET: "On the campaign's final day, Trump was a torrent of grievance and combativeness. He angrily decried the media's coverage while complaining that he was being treated unfairly by, in no particular order, China, the Electoral College system and Jon Bon Jovi."

-- POLITICAL MEMO from NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN, ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: "As Election Day Arrives, Trump Shifts Between Combativeness and Grievance": "His mad dash to the finish is a distillation of his four tumultuous years in office, a mix of resentment, combativeness and a penchant for viewing events through a prism all his own — and perhaps the hope that everything will work out for him in the end, the way it did four years ago when he surprised himself, his advisers and the world by winning the White House.

"But by enclosing himself in the thin bubble of his own worldview, Mr. Trump may have further severed himself from the political realities of a country in crisis. And that, in turn, has helped enable Mr. Trump to wage a campaign offering no central message, no clear agenda for a second term and no answer to the woes of the pandemic. …

"What confounds some Republicans is how little Mr. Trump is discussing last month's confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court; some G.O.P. senators have made that achievement a centerpiece of their campaigns. … Campaigning in Kentucky this weekend in pursuit of his seventh term, Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, repeatedly trumpeted Justice Barrett and the other two Trump-nominated judges on the high court while not mentioning Mr. Biden's name once."

DRIVING THE DAY -- THE PRESIDENT will visit the Trump campaign HQ in Virginia at 9:55 a.m. Afterward, he'll return to the White House.

JOE BIDEN will be in Scranton, Pa., and Philadelphia. JILL BIDEN will be in St. Petersburg and Tampa, Fla., and Cary, N.C. Sen. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will travel to Detroit. DOUG EMHOFF will be in Columbus, Ohio, for a voter mobilization event. BIDEN will speak at an event in Wilmington, Del., in the evening. Jill Biden, Harris and Emhoff will join him.

NYT FRONT PAGE (banner headline): "ANXIETY MOUNTS WITH RACE AT A BITTER END"

CLICKER -- POLITICO'S election rig: You can track overall results and get real-time updates for the presidency, the Senate and the House. We've also used live data and our Election Forecast to allow users to predict how the electoral math could shake out. Follow our Live Chat this evening for live analysis, and get the latest battleground state polls and updates from our California ballot tracker.

ALSO -- FOUR SQUARE HOST Eugene Daniels will break down the latest Election Day news from across the country along with chief political correspondent Tim Alberta, chief Washington correspondent Ryan Lizza and national political reporter Laura Barrón-López. The group will be joined throughout the show by colleagues from across the newsroom to cover exit polling, Trump's and Biden's campaign strategies, and their favorite moments of this long and winding election. Register to watch

WAPO: "How is TV news going to cover the weirdest, most fraught election in history? All of your questions answered," by Sarah Ellison and Jeremy Barr

FIRST ELECTION DAY VOTES -- AP/DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H.: "Two tiny New Hampshire communities that vote for president just after the stroke of midnight on Election Day have cast their ballots, with one of them marking 60 years since the tradition began. The results in Dixville Notch, near the Canadian border, were a sweep for former Vice President Joe Biden who won the town's five votes. In Millsfield, 12 miles (20 kilometers) to the south, President Donald Trump won 16 votes to Biden's five."

MARKET WATCH -- "S&P Futures and Global Stocks Rise Heading Into Election Day," by WSJ's Frances Yoon: "U.S. stock futures and international markets traded higher, in some of the final hours of trading before Election Day begins in earnest."

BIG PICTURE -- "Win or Lose, Trump and Biden's Parties Will Plunge Into Uncertainty," by NYT's Lisa Lerer in Plano, Texas: "This year's election seems likely to plunge both Republicans and Democrats into a period of disarray no matter who wins the White House. With moderates and progressives poised to battle each other on the left, and an array of forces looking to chart a post-Trump future on the right (be it in 2021 or in four years), both parties appear destined for an ideological wilderness in the months ahead as each tries to sort out its identities and priorities.

"The questions facing partisans on both sides are sweeping, and remain largely unresolved despite more than a year of a tumultuous presidential campaign. After Democrats cast their eyes backward several generations for a more moderate nominee, does a rising liberal wing represent their future? And what becomes of a Republican Party that has been redefined by the president's populist approach, and politicians like [Texas Sen. John] Cornyn who have been in the long shadow of Mr. Trump for four years?"

-- "Republicans publicly silent, privately disgusted by Trump's election threats," by Ryan Lizza and Daniel Lippman

A LOOK BACK -- JOHN HARRIS column: "On Election Day, Democrats Are Haunted by the Ghosts of Al Gore and Hillary Clinton": "As we wait for the results of the 2020 election—with at least a little and, potentially, quite a lot of time to kill—it is worth pondering the randomness of history. A slight turn here or there, a little more of this or a little less of that, and we live in a very different world. There is no more vivid recent example of the phenomenon than the two tragic figures of Democratic politics over the past generation: Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"Both had limitations as politicians, and by their own reckonings made errors in their campaigns. But let's never forget that both also won the popular vote. Were it not for arguably illegitimate and inarguably freakish circumstances they would have both won the presidency, too. Instead the White House ambitions that they had spent their professional lives advancing were broken like an eggshell and squashed like a gooseberry.

"It has been a star-crossed start to the 21st century, which will be one-quarter over by the time whoever is elected today finishes his term. When it comes to Gore and Clinton, no one can say where paths not taken would have led. But both figures invite tantalizing, even agonizing, flights of counter-factual speculation. The lull before this evening's storm is a fitting moment to ponder might-have-beens."

LOOK AHEAD … "Also on the ballot: The future of Trump's family political dynasty," by Meridith McGraw and Nancy Cook: "Now, in the final stretch of the election, the Trump clan has been on a mission to save this iteration of the family venture: cultural warriors, GOP takeover artists, and, perhaps, a budding political dynasty. In a frenzied tour across battleground states, Trump's family members are making a personal pitch to voters that it's not just their father who should stay in power, it's them as well.

"If Trump pulls off another upset win, it will cement his family's standing in American society. The Trumps will set the cultural and political dialogue for the better part of a decade. They'll continue to elbow their way through the halls of Washington and the GOP. They might run for office.

"But if Trump loses, a family brand built on 'winning' will be dealt an embarrassing defeat after years of successfully side-stepping creditors, bankruptcies and cultural comeuppance. Republicans might turn on the Trumps. MAGA politics may fade. And the Trumps likely can't retreat back into the glitzy world of New York galas. Nor do they want to. Instead, they'll try to do what they always do, according to over a dozen current and former senior administration officials and close associates of the Trump family: Keep the Trump brand alive. Expand the family business. Export it when possible."

CNN'S MANU RAJU: "Republicans eye 2024 White House bids and debate post-Trump era as 2020 election ends"

ALLY MUTNICK: "Trump's suburban crash drags House GOP down with him"

DEMS PUSHING INTO RED AMERICA: "Dems embrace the left in some GOP strongholds," by Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle: "Democrats in 2018 seized the House on the momentum of dozens of centrist candidates who beat the odds in Trump country with their middle-of-the-road, inoffensive appeal.

"But several of the Democrats with the greatest odds of flipping GOP seats in 2020 don't hail from the center — but from the Medicare for All and Green New Deal-touting left flank. Nearly a dozen Democrats in some of the nation's most competitive districts, from Texas to Iowa to Nebraska, are running on unabashedly liberal platforms, betting that their brand of progressive populism — single-payer health care, aggressive climate action and eschewing special interest money in politics — can win even in GOP strongholds.

"They're running on, rather than away from, left-wing policies that many elected Democrats remain hesitant to embrace. And with final election forecasts predicting Democrats could net up to 20 new seats, these progressives' prospects look increasingly strong. Meanwhile, as the GOP conference shrinks and moves to the right, an even more polarized House is likely." POLITICO

 

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THE CLOSER? … ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: "Roger Stone rallies for Doug Collins in Gwinnett; Tim Scott flies with David Perdue," by Patricia Murphy

COURT WATCH -- "Federal judge allows Texas's Harris County to count ballots cast via drive-through voting," by WaPo's Neena Satija, Brittney Martin and Aaron Schaffer: "A federal judge on Monday rejected Republicans' attempt to invalidate more than 100,000 ballots cast via drive-through voting in Harris County, Tex., home to Houston. But he also cautioned those who have not yet voted to avoid using those centers on Election Day.

"'If I were voting tomorrow … I would not vote in a drive-through just out of my concern as to whether that's legal or not,' said U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, an appointee of President George W. Bush, noting that an appellate court could overrule him." WaPo

 

NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

Detroit Department of Elections workers processing ballots are pictured. | Getty Images

PHOTO DU JOUR: Detroit Department of Elections workers process absentee ballots Monday. | Elaine Cromie/Getty Images

ERIC GELLER: "Inside Democrats' efforts to fight election security threats"

AGENCY DRAMA -- "Health agencies resist Trump civil service executive order," by Adam Cancryn and Sarah Owermohle: "President Donald Trump's executive order making it easier to fire federal employees is meeting fierce resistance within the Food and Drug Administration, amid fears the White House is planning a purge of senior health officials it views as disloyal. The order — which Trump issued on Oct. 21 — would strip certain civil service and due process protections from career federal employees who make policy.

"FDA officials see it as laying the groundwork for an across-the-board effort to replace longtime career scientists with political allies in a second Trump term. Tensions between the agency and Trump's inner circle have grown over the past couple of months, as White House aides have sparred with the FDA over efforts to fulfill the president's vow of a coronavirus vaccine before Election Day.

"Multiple top FDA officials have raised concerns about the executive order directly to Commissioner Stephen Hahn in recent weeks, voicing sharp opposition to the prospect of determining which employees would be eligible, said two health officials with knowledge of the matter." POLITICO

 

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THE CORONAVIRUS RAGING …

-- "Hospitals competing for nurses as U.S. coronavirus cases surge," by AP's Tammy Webber in Fenton, Mich.: "As the coronavirus pandemic surges across the nation and infections and hospitalizations rise, medical administrators are scrambling to find enough nursing help — especially in rural areas and at small hospitals.

"Nurses are being trained to provide care in fields where they have limited experience. Hospitals are scaling back services to ensure enough staff to handle critically ill patients. And health systems are turning to short-term travel nurses to help fill the gaps.

"Adding to the strain, experienced nurses are 'burned out with this whole (pandemic)' and some are quitting, said Kevin Fitzpatrick, an emergency room nurse at Hurley Medical Center in Flint, Michigan, where several left just in the past month to work in hospice or home care or at outpatient clinics."

-- "Coronavirus caseload sets record in Virginia as infections jump across D.C. region," by WaPo's Dana Hedgpeth, Lola Fadulu, Michael Brice-Saddler and Erin Cox: "Virginia is recording more coronavirus infections than at any point during the pandemic, creating a new peak in caseloads Monday as numbers rise across the Washington region. The seven-day average of new cases across Virginia, Maryland and D.C. stands at 2,274, eclipsing a previous record of 2,218 cases that had stood since May 31.

"Health experts blame colder weather and lax usage of precautions that decrease the virus's spread, and say the holidays will be a particularly challenging period to wrest control of the pandemic."

MEDIAWATCH -- QUIBI POST-MORTEM: "Quibi Was Supposed to Revolutionize Hollywood. Here's Why It Failed," by WSJ's Benjamin Mullin and Lillian Rizzo

-- Rebecca Robbins is joining the NYT as a reporter focused on Covid-19 vaccines. She previously was a San Francisco health tech correspondent at Stat. Talking Biz News

 

EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

TRANSITIONS -- Jessica Donlon is now general counsel of the House Oversight Committee. She previously was deputy general counsel for oversight at OMB. … Carlos Ignacio Suarez is now senior deputy assistant administrator for Latin America and the Caribbean at USAID. He previously was COS to Carlos Trujillo, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Minh-Thu Pham, co-founder of New American Voices and senior adviser at Connect-Frontier. A fun fact about her: "I'm pretty good at finding four-leaf clovers, but I haven't figured out how to translate that into anything useful. If anyone has ideas, let me know." Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) is 73 … Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) is 42 … Michael Dukakis is 87 … Anna Wintour … CAA's Rachel Adler … Katie Packer Beeson, founding partner of Burning Glass Consulting … Jenn Pellegrino, OANN White House correspondent (h/t Eric Bolling) … Jared Rizzi … Jeff Brownlee, senior political research analyst at Americans for Prosperity … Phyllis Cuttino, executive director of the Climate Action Campaign … Paul Brathwaite, chief strategist at Federal Street Strategies, is 5-0 (h/ts Jon Haber) … POLITICO's Anthony Adragna, Renuka Rayasam and Ryan Hendrixson … Gabby Adler is 4-0 (h/t Jesse Ferguson) … Amie Kershner … Christie Stephenson, press secretary for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), is 31 (h/t Meredith Kelly) … Quentin Fulks … O. Kay Henderson … Evelyn Nieves … former Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) is 83 … Matthew Kirincic … James Kanter … Erica Moody …

… Charlie Hurt Michael Haft, co-founder of Compass Coffee (h/t girlfriend Sofia Rose Gross) … Katie (Cook) Romano … Dennis Miller is 67 … Kam Mumtaz of Tesla global comms (h/t George Hornedo) ... Bob Van Heuvelen ... Kelli Kedis Ogborn ... Robina Suwol ... Jack Weller ... Robin (Levy) Gray, director of external comms for Southern Company Gas ... Amy Rosenbaum ... Heidi Peterson … Scout Tufankjian ... Rowan Morris, managing director at Guggenheim Partners, is 35 ... Edelman's Lauren Greco ... Anne Mahlum ... Brian Babcock-Lumish ... Mindi Walker ... Chris Falls ... Ben Kirshner ... Christian Haines ... Pearce Godwin ... Julian Baird Gewirtz ... Liz Rolnik ... Joe Cohen (h/t Nadia Szold) ... David Case ... Vinny Minchillo is 59 ... Jack McLaughlin ... Shawn Rusterholz ... Christie Findlay ... Mark Helmke ... Barbara Zheutlin ... Satya Rhodes-Conway ... Stuart Rosenberg ... Katie Fricchione ... Sky Gallegos (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

 

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