Coronavirus: Europe’s split over Omicron

The variant is cresting in some areas of Europe, but still skyrocketing in the east.

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Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times

Omicron's two Europes

While the Omicron wave is beginning to crest in some areas of Europe, infection rates are still skyrocketing in other parts of the continent, particularly in the east.

As the variant storms its way eastward, countries are largely responding in one of two ways: Some have been clamping down to curb a spike in cases, while others have been easing restrictions as cases or hospitalizations fall, or in some cases, even as cases soar.

In the Netherlands, where stringent lockdowns have put a strain on the population, the Dutch government said that it was "taking a risk" in easing restrictions starting today despite a growing caseload. In Austria, the health minister said today that rules for unvaccinated people would end next week, based on guidance from health advisers that hospitals and intensive care units were becoming less burdened — even as virus cases rise.

Similar announcements have come from England, Denmark and France, where restrictions will ease starting next month.

New daily cases in France, seven-day average.The New York Times

But farther east, record virus caseloads are prompting governments to ramp up rules and testing.

In Germany, which has recorded an average of more than 123,000 cases per day in the last week, lawmakers today discussed a proposal for a vaccine mandate.

New daily cases in Germany, seven-day average.The New York Times

Poland has stepped up testing and switched to remote learning until the end of February for some older students. Eastern European countries like Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania are reporting records for daily cases that are projected to keep rising in the coming days.

The divergent situations demonstrate that while the virus may be waning in parts of Europe and North America, many countries across the world are still in the middle of the Omicron wave.

New daily cases remain at record highs globally, averaging about 3.3 million — an increase of more than 25 percent over two weeks. Cases have continued to rise in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia.

New daily global cases, seven-day average.The New York Times

Although vaccine shortages are easing, only about 62 percent of the world's population has received at least one shot, and a striking divide between the rich and poor regions of the world remains. In low-income countries, only 10 percent of the population has received at least one dose.

The potential consequences of the vaccine gap have been underscored by Omicron, which was first identified in southern Africa. Low vaccination coverage creates conditions for widespread virus circulation and with that, the possibility of new variants emerging.

Who is more prone to long Covid?

New research in the U.S. has identified a number of biological factors that might help predict if a person will develop long Covid.

To understand if some people might be more prone to suffering long Covid, dozens of researchers at several universities and medical centers followed more than 200 patients for two to three months after their Covid diagnoses. The study, published yesterday in the journal Cell, found four factors that could be identified early in a coronavirus infection that appeared to correlate with increased risk of having lasting symptoms weeks later. Those four factors are:

  • The level of coronavirus RNA in the blood early in the infection, an indicator of viral load.
  • The presence of certain autoantibodies that mistakenly attack tissues in the body as they do in conditions like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.
  • The reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus, a pathogen that infects most people, often when they are young, and then usually becomes dormant.
  • Type 2 diabetes. However, the researchers and other experts said that in studies involving larger numbers of patients, it might turn out that diabetes is only one of several medical conditions that increase the risk of long Covid.

The researchers said they had found these factors played a role whether the initial infection was serious or mild. They said that the findings might suggest ways to prevent or treat some cases of long Covid. One possibility might include giving people antiviral medications soon after an infection has been diagnosed.

"We did this analysis because we know patients will go to physicians and they'll say that they're tired all the time or whatever, and the physician just tells them to get more sleep. That's not very helpful," Dr. Jim Heath, the principal investigator of the study and president of the Institute for Systems Biology, said. "So, we wanted to actually have a way to quantify and say that there's actually something wrong with these patients."

Lost your vaccine card?

Take a deep breath. The records themselves are not lost, and many health departments can provide you with your vaccination information. But if you need the card now for travel or work, here are a few things you can do.

  • Check your phone. Lots of states let people gain access to their vaccination records from their smartphones. Others have websites where vaccination information can be requested, usually as a PDF or email. (See a full list here.)
  • Call the pharmacy. If you were vaccinated at a pharmacy, you're in luck. CVS, Walgreens and Walmart can all help you track down your vaccination record and reissue another card.
  • Talk to your doctor. Your doctor might have an extra C.D.C.-issued white card to give you. They should at least have a record of when and where you received your vaccine doses. Ask them. Most states require health care providers who administer vaccine shots to log that information with state health officials. So, state health officials should have that information too.

When you finally get a card again, make sure you save it. Taking a picture of it is a good idea. If you received a QR code with your vaccination records, you can store it in the digital wallet on your iPhone. There are also apps from Clear, Common Pass, Docket and IBM that can help you keep track of your vaccination record.

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What you're doing

My brother in-law and his 15-year-old son called my husband and me with questions about whether the son should get the booster. His son was afraid of cardiac problems from the vaccine. He is also a high school student and had two close exposures that week from classmates with Covid. My husband is a physician studying Covid, and I am an epidemiologist. Our advice? Bottom line, there is more health risk in not getting the shot and getting Covid than in getting the booster. So they went to the pharmacy to get the booster. Only there was no one there to give the shots. The staff were all home with Covid.

— Anne Lown, Portland, Ore.

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