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 | | Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times |
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After weeks of skyrocketing case numbers, overwhelmed I.C.U.s and long lines at testing centers, new data points are emerging that may signal that the Omicron wave could finally be in retreat, offering some glimmers of hope to exhausted Americans. |
In recent days, more and more states have passed their peaks in new cases. Nationally, new cases have begun to drop — daily average cases fell to around 690,000 yesterday, down from about 807,000 10 days ago. New coronavirus hospital admissions have also leveled off. |
 | | Average hospitalizations in the U.S.The New York Times |
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In states and cities where new cases have started to fall, the declines have been swift and steep. That's a similar pattern to one observed in South Africa, the first place to document a major surge of the variant. |
 | | Average daily cases in New York City.The New York Times |
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Leading public health experts around the world are looking at the news of receding cases with renewed optimism. A top official at the World Health Organization said the pandemic was entering a "new phase" as "Omicron offers plausible hope for stabilization and normalization." |
"What we would hope," Dr. Anthony Fauci said during an appearance on ABC's "This Week," "is that, as we get into the next weeks to month or so, we'll see throughout the entire country the level of infection get to below what I call that area of control." |
That does not mean eradicating the virus, Dr. Fauci said. Infections will continue. "They're there, but they don't disrupt society," he said. "That's the best-case scenario." |
In a new commentary published in The Lancet, Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated that 50 percent of the world would be infected by Omicron by the end of March 2022, which will change the way societies respond to the virus. |
"After the Omicron wave, Covid-19 will return but the pandemic will not," he wrote. "The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over." |
Yet even as positive signs emerge, the threat is far from over. The U.S. continues to log far more infections than in any prior surge, and some states in the West, South and Great Plains are still seeing sharp increases. Many hospitals are full. And deaths continue to climb, with more than 2,100 announced most days. |
There is also a huge unknown. Scientists said it still remained an open question whether Omicron would mark the transition from a pandemic to a less threatening endemic state or whether future surges or variants could introduce fresh tumult. |
"It's dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame," Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said at a meeting today. "On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge." |
Charting an Omicron infection |
Omicron now accounts for more than 99.5 percent of new infections in the U.S., according to the C.D.C. Many questions about the variant's infections remain unanswered, but here is a look at some of what scientists have learned so far. |
The time that elapses between being exposed to the virus and developing symptoms is known as the incubation period. The original version of the virus had an incubation period that averaged about five days. For Delta, it was about four days. Omicron is swifter still, with an incubation period of roughly three days. |
 | | The New York Times |
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Because Omicron replicates so fast and its incubation period is so short, there is a narrower window in which to catch infections before people begin to transmit the virus. |
Earlier in the pandemic, people were advised to use a rapid test five to seven days after a potential exposure to the virus. Given Omicron's shorter incubation period, many experts now recommend taking a rapid test two to four days after a potential exposure. (They also recommend taking at least two rapid tests, about a day apart, in order to increase the odds of detecting an infection.) |
P.C.R. tests are more sensitive than rapid tests, which means they are likely to detect the virus earlier in the course of infection, but they take longer to return results. |
 | | The New York Times |
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Check out the full article on charting Omicron infections, by my colleagues Emily Anthes and Jonathan Corum, here. |
What else we're following |
My husband and I are just waiting for one of us to get Covid. I'm a flight attendant who works long-haul international flights. I'm a wreck when I get home from a trip. I'm constantly reminding passengers to wear their masks and how to wear them properly. Many of my co-workers are not even vaccinated — this makes me crazy! We babysit our two young grandchildren who aren't old enough for the vaccine. We test before we babysit, but we still are very worried we will bring it into their home. My anxiety level is off the charts. I don't know how long I can cope. — Gail Cox, Bedford, Texas |
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