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 | | Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times |
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The Omicron variant continues to shatter records in the U.S. Yesterday, the country recorded a staggering 885,000 cases, and experts say the peak is still weeks away. |
We're learning more about the new variant, and, so far, it seems to spread faster but cause less severe illness than previous variants; it also leads to fewer hospitalizations and deaths. Last week, my colleague Carl Zimmer reported that an Omicron infection may protect against later infections with the Delta variant. |
Those qualities have led to a lot of speculation about the Omicron surge and its aftermath. To help us answer these questions, and for a look at how 2022 might unfold, I checked in with Carl. |
Omicron is so infectious it has led to some speculation that it may help us reach herd immunity. Could it? |
Nobody should think that Omicron is going to make Covid magically disappear. Herd immunity is the idea of a virus just disappearing on its own because it can't find enough hosts to keep itself going. And that is not going to happen. It's too widespread. It's too well adapted to us. SARS-CoV-2 is in animals. I mean, it's just not going away. |
But we could be in a situation by some time in 2022 where it could be a much more manageable situation, where vaccines help to keep it in check — but it's not disappearing. |
People sometimes talk about the possibility that Covid becomes endemic. What does that look like? |
When a virus is endemic, the number of infections every year is at a constant baseline level. Like chickenpox. People get chickenpox at a pretty steady rate year in, year out. But right now, Covid is not endemic. So the question is, is it going to eventually settle down to a steady, much lower background rate? |
What's the latest thinking on that? |
One possibility that epidemiologists are thinking is that there will be future waves, but they will be smaller waves. New variants will evolve, but there will already be so much immunity — people will have already been infected with the coronavirus or will have been vaccinated — and so it'll just be harder for new variants to find a lot of vulnerable hosts. |
So will Omicron help us reach endemicity? |
We don't know. Something becoming endemic is a long, complex process, and it's not like we can recognize in the middle of a new surge whether something is going to lead to endemicity. Epidemiologists aren't trying to make that claim now. All they're saying right now, in a very guarded way, is that maybe after this big surge over the next month or two, that if there are more surges later in the year, they will be smaller. |
So are there any upsides to Omicron, a variant that is milder but spreads faster? |
Framing it as a possible benefit is not really the right way to think about it. I mean, it's better to be dealing with a variant that causes less severe disease. But if it's much more transmissible, then you're going to have a lot more seriously ill people in hospitals. So you can't just look at one side of Omicron and ignore the other side. |
A lot of people, especially unvaccinated people, are going to get seriously sick from Omicron. And after the surge is done, there could be a lot of immunity to Omicron and perhaps to other variants. But it's a very high price to pay for that. We should be trying to keep infections down. We should be protecting the most vulnerable among us. We should be thinking in those terms, not just asking, "Oh, what's the upside of this?" |
How are you personally feeling about the state of the pandemic in the U.S.? |
It's striking that we are not better able to deal with a new surge two years into the pandemic. Scientists have been warning that this virus, like all viruses, would mutate, so we needed to be ready for change. We had Alpha and then we had Delta, so we've been through this before. And yet, in the U.S., we're in this latest surge without a strong testing capacity to deal with it, without a system to get people good masks, which we know can help. And so there's just chaos. |
The Biden administration is now saying it's going to give out 500 million tests. Those tests aren't going to be coming in for at least a couple of more weeks — deep into this surge. And it's not enough. It's basically like waiting until half the house is burned down before you send in the firefighters — and you send one small fire engine. |
What do you see for the U.S.? |
We are going to go through a big surge. We're going to go through a surge of cases over the next month, maybe more. We don't know how much hospitalization that's going to lead to, but it's going to be a lot. And then it's going to go down just like it's gone down in the past. |
And so the question then is, what's it like for the rest of 2022? Epidemiologists I talked to say it is possible that we may not have to deal with another giant surge later in the year just because there'll be so much immunity once we get through this. But a lot of people are going to die. Tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people are going to die in the surge. |
Should the fact that Omicron is milder change our behavior? |
I haven't had Omicron myself, but I certainly know some people who have. Fortunately, none of them ended up in the hospital, but they've had a range of symptoms. Some of them have felt like they've just had a stuffy nose and others have been in bed for a few days. If you're vaccinated, you could still be looking at being physically knocked out for a few days. |
But just as important, if you just walk around and say, "Well, you know, I'm not going to care about this virus," you could then become the source of infection for other people — maybe people who are much more vulnerable. We're still in the middle of a public health crisis, and it's not just about ourselves as individuals. |
Some cities are experiencing nearly 50 percent increases in cases overnight. Mumbai reported 15,000 cases today, surpassing its previous daily record of about 11,000 cases. Delhi today had a more than 90 percent increase in cases. |
"The pace of spread is quite dramatic," said my colleague Mujib Mashal, The Times's South Asia bureau chief. "But rates of hospitalization have remained low, and the government is pushing that as a sign to remain vigilant but not panic as the variant is resulting in mild symptoms." |
Officials appear to be relying on reports that Omicron did not cause devastating damage in countries like South Africa. But the country's leaders are offering a mixed message. |
"On the one hand, the government is introducing curfews and implementing restrictions," Mujib said. "But at the same time, leaders are going out and holding large political rallies. So an average person wonders: Which is it? Bad enough to put restrictions on my life and livelihood, or harmless enough that you are holding packed rallies of thousands?" |
"For the common folks, there is a sense of frustration in the déjà vu of it all, and in how contradictory the government's messaging is," he added. |
What else we're following |
My husband and I have been trying to convince my father-in-law to get vaccinated for months. At this point I barely bring it up because he gets so heated. His latest justification is that the new variant is milder, therefore even if he did get it, it'd just be a cold. He hasn't worn a mask outside of his job (where it's required) in over a year, and yet guess who gets Covid over the holidays? Triple vaccinated, mask wearing us. I could literally scream. — Emily M., Bay Area, Calif. |
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