| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | Presented by Binance | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | IN MEMORIAM — "Barbara Walters, trailblazing TV icon, dies at 93," by ABC's Luchina Fisher and Bill Hutchinson: "Walters joined ABC News in 1976, becoming the first female anchor on an evening news program. Three years later, she became a co-host of '20/20,' and in 1997, she launched 'The View.' … In a career that spanned five decades, Walters won 12 Emmy awards … At ABC, her interviews were wide-ranging and her access to public figures, unparalleled … She also developed a reputation for asking tough questions." Among the tributes rolling in … OPRAH: "Without Barbara Walters there wouldn't have been me — nor any other woman you see on evening, morning, and daily news. She was indeed a Trailblazer. I did my very first television audition with her in mind the whole time." NORAH O'DONNELL, "CBS Evening News" anchor: "Barbara Walters was the reason I wanted to be a journalist. Growing up, my family watched the evening news broadcasts, read newspapers and newsmagazines. But Barbara Walters was a trailblazer: the only woman on television at the time interviewing presidents, prime ministers and the most important actors, authors and artists in the world." NOAH SHACHTMAN, editor-in-chief of Rolling Stone and grandson: "Barbara was tough, brilliant, charming, erudite, and, above all, fearless. … In many ways, the Barbara you'd see at holidays was the same Barbara you'd watch on TV. She'd stare into your eyes, and ask you these questions that burrow right into your soul's deepest cracks. It was equal parts interrogation and act of love. Was she an inspiration? You're damn right she was." — "Benedict XVI, First Modern Pope to Resign, Dies at 95," by NYT's Ian Fisher and Rachel Donadio: "The decision [to resign], surprising the faithful and the world at large, capped a papacy of almost eight years in which his efforts to re-energize the Roman Catholic Church were often overshadowed by the unresolved sexual abuse scandal in the clergy. … Benedict, the uncharismatic intellectual who had largely preached to the church's most fervent believers, was soon eclipsed by FRANCIS, an unexpectedly popular successor who immediately sought to widen Catholicism's appeal and to make the Vatican newly relevant in world affairs." Pope Francis is set to preside over Benedict's funeral Mass Thursday in St. Peter's Square. Something to watch: The protocols surrounding the final rites of a former pope are ill-defined, to put it mildly, including whether global dignitaries will be expected to attend. Among the scores of world leaders who attended the last papal funeral, for JOHN PAUL II in 2005, were then-President GEORGE W. BUSH, as well as predecessors GEORGE H.W. BUSH and BILL CLINTON.
|  President Joe Biden had one of the worst 2022 predictions for saying that last December would be the "peak" of the inflation crisis. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | THAT WAS THE YEAR THAT WAS — Talking about, thinking about and covering politics brings out the soothsayers in so many of us. And after a truly wild and surprising 2022, it's clear that some of y'all got way over your skis. Thankfully, we once again have Playbook deputy editor Zack Stanton's running list of the year's worst predictions. "What elevates something above a merely bad prediction is, I think, hubris," Zack writes, "a certain performative insincerity whereby the person who makes a prediction surely knows better than to be totally sure of what they're saying, but is driven to say it anyway. When your words have the whiff of 'I have no doubt, and will not entertain it, nor should you,' there's a good chance you should at least ask why you're so certain." This year's dishonorees include … — President JOE BIDEN, for predicting December 2021 would be the "peak" of the inflation crisis. Biden eagerly echoed advisers who believed inflation would be "transitory." In fact, ongoing supply-chain problems, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and macroeconomic fundamentals all kept prices rising through the year. Only now, after some heavy-handed work from the Fed, is the crisis easing. — KARL ROVE, for predicting the Supreme Court would uphold Roe v. Wade. This one ended up being a big ol' stinker. On Dec. 29, 2021, Rove said SCOTUS would "significantly weaken" Roe but not overturn it outright, thus giving Democrats only a "minor electoral advantage." Zack writes: "If the first of those two predictions was understandable but incorrect, the second was both incorrect and an instance of wishcasting that betrayed an absolute misreading of the electorate." — FTX founder SAM BANKMAN-FRIED, for predicting "I don't think I will be arrested." The fallen crypto mogul uttered those words on Dec. 12 — mere hours before authorities in the Bahamas, well, arrested him. — Financial Times Editor BEN HALL, for predicting that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine. "A large-scale invasion would risk heavy Russian casualties and would run counter to VLADIMIR PUTIN's preference for subterfuge and plausible deniability," Hall wrote one year ago today. Hall's view was emblematic of many Western analysts who trusted their own logic over Putin's blinkered obsession with restoring Russian might. — A list of prognosticators too long to detail, for predicting a "red tsunami" in the midterms: The tsunami talk started at the end of last year and for some — looking at you, Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) — it continued all the way through Election Day. Sure, there was the high inflation, the low presidential approval numbers and the historical precedent that all pointed to a good night for Republicans. Even senior Biden administration officials didn't sound at all hopeful just days before. But the GOP managed to win only a thin House majority while actually losing a Senate seat. More year-end reads: "2022's Most Unexpected Winners and Losers," POLITICO Magazine … "The Inaugural Americana Awards," by Semafor's David Weigel … "Slate's 2022 Yearbook Superlatives" … "The List," WaPo Style
| | | | A message from Binance: It's been a tough year for crypto. After unprecedented fraud and mismanagement, industry confidence has been shaken. As the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance believes greater transparency is critical. At Binance, user assets are backed 1:1 and our capital structure is debt-free, and we are eager to work with regulators to help bring order to the markets. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | POLITICO's top five most-read stories of 2022: 1. "Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows," by Josh Gerstein and Alexander Ward 2. "'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes," by Maura Reynolds for POLITICO Magazine 3. "Exclusive: Madison Cawthorn photos reveal him wearing women's lingerie in public setting," by Michael Kruse 4. "FBI search warrant shows Trump under investigation for potential obstruction of justice, Espionage Act violations," by Betsy Woodruff Swan, Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu 5. "Abortion laws by state: Where abortions are illegal after Roe v. Wade overturned," by Megan Messerly Good Saturday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. So what's your best prediction for 2023? We promise we won't tell Zack. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Binance: As the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance believes greater transparency is critical. At Binance, user assets are backed 1:1, and we're eager to work with regulators to help bring order to the markets. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | INSIDE DONALD TRUMP'S TAXES — Reporters spent Friday digging through the 2,700-plus pages of long-hidden Trump tax returns released by House Democrats. Among the new revelations or confirmations: — While president, Trump received income from more than a dozen foreign countries, among them the UAE, Canada, China and the U.K., Bernie Becker and Benjamin Guggenheim report. — Trump's income and taxes were highly variable during the years in question (2015 to 2020). At the lowest, he lost $32.4 million in a year; at the highest, he raked in $24.4 million. And what he ponied up to Uncle Sam ranged from zero to $1 million, as Benjamin notes. — Trump maintained foreign bank accounts while in office, including one in China through 2017. More from the AP — Though Trump said he'd give away his $400,000 salary during his reelection campaign, he didn't report any charitable giving that year. — One to watch, from Benjamin: "Another notable item in the returns are interest payments made to Trump from his children … That could be a sign Trump could be trying to skirt a stiff 40 percent tax on gifts to his children by classifying them as loans instead. Though not [necessarily] illegal, the technique would need to adhere to strict IRS rules and requires documentation of letters sent to Trump's children stating that the former president is forgiving the loans' principal." Big-picture takeaways: "Trump Tax Returns Undermine His Image as a Successful Entrepreneur," NYT … "Donald Trump's Taxes Show Wide Use of Real-Estate Losses," WSJ … "What Trump's Tax Returns Say About His Finances and the IRS," Bloomberg … "Trump's Tax Law Echoed Through His Finances During White House Years," WSJ
| | BIDEN'S SATURDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' SATURDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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It's already 2023 in New Zealand, where fireworks marked the celebration in Auckland. | Dean Purcel/NZ Herald via AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. ANOTHER JAN. 6 TRANSCRIPT DUMP: On Friday, the House Jan. 6 committee put out its latest batch of witness interview records. Some of the notable moments: — VIRGINIA THOMAS, wife of Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, said "I would take them all back if I could today" regarding the texts she sent to MARK MEADOWS after the 2020 election, per the AP. Though Thomas said she still has concerns about election fraud, she wasn't able to offer many specifics. One topic on which she sounded firm: her husband's independence from her activism. "It's laughable for anyone who knows my husband to think I could influence his jurisprudence," she said. — Trump wanted to trademark "Rigged Election!," new emails show, per CNN. — RUDY GIULIANI said efforts to overturn the election zeroed in on state legislatures out of a sense that the courts would thwart a legal battle from Trump. — TONY ORNATO said he didn't remember the incident CASSIDY HUTCHINSON famously relayed in which Trump purportedly tried to grab the steering wheel to head to the Capitol on Jan. 6. "I was shocked and surprised of her testimony and called [ROBERT] ENGEL and asked him, 'What is she talking about?'" Ornato told the panel. But "[t]he committee went on to say they are 'skeptical' of Ornato's account," CBS notes. The step-back: NBC's Ryan Reilly flags that this week's transcripts train a bright spotlight on the security concerns and law enforcement failures leading up to the Capitol insurrection — a focus that's largely missing from the committee's official, Trump-focused report. "The new revelations add to a growing body of evidence from news reports and court proceedings that illustrate how federal law enforcement officials were in possession of ample information that indicated Jan. 6 was going to be violent." More roundups: POLITICO … NYT 2. SPEAKER FOR YOURSELF: A House GOP conference call wrapped up Friday with no firm conclusion on the motion to vacate rule, one of the key sticking points for the restive band of conservatives threatening to derail KEVIN McCARTHY's speaker bid, Olivia Beavers and Nick Wu report. Other potential concessions from McCarthy didn't seem to move the needle much ahead of Tuesday's vote, either. The number of "Only Kevin" members is growing, as the roughly 70-member Republican Main Street Caucus vowed Friday to stick by McCarthy for as many votes as necessary. And McCarthy landed the support of Rep. MORGAN GRIFFITH (R-Va.), a Freedom Caucus member who'd been on the fence. But, but, but … McCarthy might have more than five rebels against him: Rep.-elect ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) told STEVE BANNON that the motion to vacate will be pivotal to her decision. "A lot of people are not happy about the options," she said. "I've gotten a lot of emails from people telling me that they don't want me to vote for Kevin McCarthy, and I do listen to what my constituents say." Discussions will continue through the holiday weekend. Some moderate Republicans have discussed a long-shot backup plan if McCarthy falls short: tapping retiring Rep. FRED UPTON (R-Mich.) as speaker, which they think "wouldn't violate their pledge not to support another sitting House Republican," Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson reports Clip and save: NYT's Catie Edmondson has a useful play-by-play procedural breakdown of how Tuesday will go, which "could be a whirl of chaos not seen on the House floor in a century." 3. CHANGES ON THE HILL: On her way out of power, Speaker NANCY PELOSI announced another increase in maximum salaries for congressional staffers: They can now make as much as $212,100, significantly more than members of Congress, in an attempt to bolster retention and recruitment. More from The Hill … And on their way into power, House Republicans are returning the Capitol to more of a pre-pandemic normal, reopening the gallery to the public next week. More from Roll Call … House GOP Whip STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) also wrote a Dear Colleague letter laying out his conference's top legislative agenda items to kick off the new year, from clawing back IRS funding to making the Hyde Amendment permanent. Read it here 4. COURTING FAVOR: "A Charity Tied to the Supreme Court Offers Donors Access to the Justices," by NYT's Jo Becker and Julie Tate: "The charity, the Supreme Court Historical Society, is ostensibly independent of the judicial branch of government, but in reality the two are inextricably intertwined. … [O]ver the years the society has also become a vehicle for those seeking access to nine of the most reclusive and powerful people in the nation. … The New York Times was able to identify the sources behind more than $10.7 million raised since 2003 … At least $6.4 million — or 60 percent — came from corporations, special interest groups, or lawyers and firms that argued cases before the court." But, but, but: "Virtually no one interviewed by The Times, including critics of the society's fund-raising practices, said they believed that donations to the society had any bearing on cases before the justices."
| | | | A message from Binance:   | | | 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: After the Supreme Court prevented the White House from lifting the Title 42 border policy for now, the Biden administration may be reversing course, Myah Ward reports this morning. Officials are considering new programs that would allow them to use Title 42 to turn away many Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans, who are currently exempt from the policy. Following the model that the administration created for Venezuelans, the policy would offer narrow pathways for some migrants but toss out many more — helping the administration handle the border surge but provoking political and humanitarian backlash. No final decision's been made yet. Related stats, via WSJ's Michelle Hackman: "Arrests and deportations of immigrants in the country illegally increased in the second year of the Biden administration, though both remained below average Trump- and Obama-era levels." 6. POLL POSITION: NYT's Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder have a deep dive on how a wave of conservative midterm polls — which ultimately proved inaccurately rosy for the GOP — skewed election narratives and altered actual outcomes by diverting resources. "Shaping perceptions across the ideological spectrum, the steady flow of data predicting a red wave prompted real-world decision-making that members of both parties now say could have tilted the balance of power in Congress." (FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver responds that the article fails to examine the NYT's own role in constructing a false red wave narrative.) 7. THE NEW GOP: Republicans boosted their margins among Black voters in this year's midterms, rising from 8% support in 2018 to 14% this year, AP's Ayanna Alexander and Gary Fields report from new VoteCast data. Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP, for one, increased his Black support from 5% to 12%. "If that boost can be sustained, Democrats could face headwinds in 2024 in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania." 8. PARDON ME: "Biden's pardons show focus on easing drug punishments, and women's rights," by Reuters' Trevor Hunnicutt: "Biden on Friday pardoned six people who have already served time for crimes, including five convicted of drug or alcohol-related offenses and a woman who killed her allegedly abusive husband nearly five decades ago. … All of the people pardoned on Friday were convicted and served a sentence for the crime, some of which happened decades ago, when they were young. In the years since, they have developed careers and been involved in community service." 9. THE ANTI-POVERTY POLICY THAT WASN'T: After the expanded child tax credit helped halve child poverty in the U.S. during the pandemic, Republicans blocked Democrats from extending it — one of the year's most consequential policy decisions for the country, The New Republic's Grace Segers reports. "With Republicans taking control of the House in January, these final weeks of the year represented the last chance for the foreseeable future for the Democratic majority in both houses to reinstate the credit." CLICKER — "The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker —14 keepers
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Luckovich - Atlanta Journal Constitution | GREAT WEEKEND READS: — "The DJ and the War Crimes," by Sophia Jones, Nidžara Ahmetašević and Milivoje Pantović in Rolling Stone: "Thirty years after a death squad massacred civilians in Bosnia, none of the infamous Arkan's Tigers have stood trial for their alleged part in those crimes. And for the past few decades, one of them has been spinning trance records at European festivals and clubs." — "Is Channel 5 the Future of News?" by Rowan Moore Gerety in Esquire: "They've gone from upstart YouTube channel to undeniably influential reporting powerhouse. And they're just getting started." — "The Trumpiest court in America," by Vox's Ian Millhiser: "The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit is where law goes to die." — "What Does It Take to Become the No. 1 Lumberjack?" by Reid Forgrave in the NYT Magazine: "For Jason Lentz, being a world-class competitive lumberjack was fated in his family tree." — "Dress Rehearsal," by Fintan O'Toole in the N.Y. Review of Books: "Trump's attempt almost two years ago to undermine the 2020 election reads today like a blueprint drawn for a future autocrat."
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kris Kobach's 2020 campaign was slapped with a $30,000 FEC fine. G.K. Butterfield resigned from Congress a few days early because his new law firm wants people on the payroll before the new year. Mark and Debra Meadows won't face voter fraud charges in North Carolina. George Santos' story of losing his rent money in a mugging is being called into question — and so is his very name. TRANSITION — Abigail O'Brien will be government relations manager for the city of Mesa, Ariz., covering the federal portfolio. She previously was chief of staff for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Adham Sahloul, a special assistant in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Diana Rayes, a PhD candidate at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, welcomed Rayan Zaher Sahloul on Dec. 23. His name honors his grandfather, Zaher Sahloul, a humanitarian leader and Gandhi Peace Award honoree. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was Friday): Maine Gov. Janet Mills … Katie Plona of the State Department HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) … Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) … Donald Trump Jr. … U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake (6-0) … Pete Souza … Foxbat Media's Brian Danza … David Wilezol … WaPo's Josh Rogin, Joel Achenbach and Naftali Bendavid … Robyn Bryan of Sen. Debbie Stabenow's (D-Mich.) office … Ronnie Cho … Angie Yack … APCO Worldwide's Wayne Pines … Max Pedrotti of Rep. Carol Miller's (R-W.Va.) office … Shannon Vavra … Rick Bosh … POLITICO's Afra Abdullah and Mark Wegner … Bloomberg's Simon Kennedy … Peter G. Miller … Martin J. Kady ... Meg Boland ... Meeghan Prunty … Andy Seré … DOD's Chris Estep … Wade Atkinson … former Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) … Shelby Hartley … Mark Ein … Elliot Mamet of the American Political Science Association … Annabel Lassally … Betsy Barrett THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): NBC "Meet the Press," with a special edition called "Democracy Disrupted: How Social Media Is Shaping Our Politics": Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) … Frances Haugen. Panel: Elizabeth Nolan Brown, Carlos Curbelo, Jeh Johnson and Cecilia Kang. CNN "State of the Union": Maryland Gov.-elect Wes Moore … Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) … House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Panel: Lis Smith and David Urban. Fox News "Sunday Morning Futures," guest-hosted by Jackie DeAngelis: Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) … Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) … Rep.-elect Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) … Florida AG Ashley Moody. ABC "This Week": Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson … Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). Panel: Rick Klein, Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur and Rachael Bade. FOX "Fox News Sunday," guest-anchored by Gillian Turner: Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) … Michael Allen. Panel: Charlie Hurt, Catherine Lucey and Richard Fowler. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Binance: It's been a tough year for crypto. Macroeconomic headwinds have ushered in challenging market conditions, followed by unprecedented fraud and mismanagement. The combination rocked consumer confidence and created a level of skepticism about the future of crypto. Binance strongly believes crypto's best days remain ahead, but to get there, transparency is the only path forward. At Binance, we are investing in transparency protocols to demonstrate our strong financial health. Our capital structure is debt-free and all user assets are backed 1:1. Binance does not borrow against customers' funds or invest them without their consent. Most importantly, we look forward to working with policymakers to better protect consumers while promoting innovation. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
