| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by Binance | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
Kevin McCarthy's bid for speaker is facing two big "what-if" questions five days away from a vote. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE NEW WASHINGTON ORDER — President JOE BIDEN's administration is taking a shot across the bow of the incoming House Republican majority, our colleague Heidi Przybyla scoops this morning: A top White House lawyer told two key incoming chairs that their oversight demands would be disregarded unless and until their requests are resubmitted next year in the new Congress. The details: "In respective letters to Reps. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) and JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), White House Special Counsel RICHARD SAUBER said that the Biden administration had no immediate plans to respond to a slew of records requests that both men made the past several weeks. "In those letters, obtained exclusively by POLITICO, Sauber described such requests as constitutionally illegitimate because both Jordan, who is expected to chair the House Judiciary Committee, and Comer, who is expected to head the Oversight Committee, made them before they had any authority to do so." Read the Comer letter … Read the Jordan letter McCARTHY'S MUDDLE — Five days out from the high-stakes speakership vote, House Republicans are starting to ask themselves two "what-if" questions surrounding KEVIN McCARTHY's fate: 1) If the California Republican gets the gavel, how long will he be speaker? And, if he doesn't, 2) how does he serve out his remaining days in Congress? — On the first question: There's a consensus among many House Republicans, one that few would dare utter publicly, that if McCarthy starts the 118th Congress as speaker, he's not likely to end it that way. If he's able to lock down the 218 votes he needs to be speaker, the thinking goes, he likely will have given away the store to conservatives — including the "Never Kevin" crowd's demand to make it easier to call a vote to oust the speaker. Many Republicans are already predicting the Freedom Caucus will use that tool, known as the "motion to vacate," against McCarthy as soon as he strays from a conservative hard line. The question on everyone's mind is: When? The year-end spending deal struck between Democrats and Senate Republicans clearly bought McCarthy time. Instead of having to negotiate a politically precarious funding agreement with Democrats in his first months as speaker, McCarthy won't have to go there until September at the earliest. But even McCarthy allies tell us the real looming threat is the debt ceiling deadline. At some point next year — likely in the third quarter,according to the Bipartisan Policy Center — McCarthy will have to figure out a way to raise the federal debt limit or risk a national default, a move that will tear the GOP conference in two. Democrats are already signaling they won't negotiate at all, let alone offer the draconian spending concessions the right flank is demanding. "You've got guys who came in saying they will never raise the debt ceiling. … We're then going to be forced to go to the Democrats and give Dems concessions to vote for it — and it's going to be very costly politically," predicted one senior GOP lawmaker close with McCarthy. "Then they'll turn around and do a motion to vacate to get rid of Kevin saying, 'He cut deals with the Democrats!'" The same McCarthy ally told us the leader is well aware of the peril he faces internally: "It pains me to say it, because Kevin's worked so hard for this. He's our most valuable player; he's definitely our most skilled strategist," the lawmaker said. "But if I'm seeing this, Kevin's got to be seeing this." One possibility that some are eyeing as McCarthy's get-out-of-jail-free card: a discharge petition signed by all House Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans to raise the debt ceiling. Such a move would theoretically allow rank-and-file members to bring a debt increase to the floor without McCarthy's blessing, allowing the GOP leader to rail against any deal while centrists take the heat.
| | | | A message from Binance: It's been a tough year for crypto. After unprecedented fraud and mismanagement, industry confidence has been shaken. As the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance believes greater transparency is critical. At Binance, user assets are backed 1:1 and our capital structure is debt-free, and we are eager to work with regulators to help bring order to the markets. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | — On the second question: House Republicans are also gossiping about what McCarthy would do if he fails a second time to win election as speaker. When he withdrew from the speaker race in 2015 amid a right-wing revolt, the GOP leader called up then-Ways and Means Chair PAUL RYAN (R-Wis.) and told him he was going to publicly endorse him for speaker. He then worked with outgoing Speaker JOHN BOEHNER to convince the very reluctant former vice presidential nominee that he had to step in to save his party. Would he do the same this time around? Many Republicans doubt he'd be interested in smoothing the way for another speaker. As we've reported, No. 2 leader STEVE SCALISE is the most likely next in line. But McCarthy and Scalise have long had a tense relationship, dating back to when the Louisianan voiced his desire to lead the conference someday — comments McCarthy's team took as a slight. (Scalise says he supports McCarthy for speaker and will not challenge him.) Already some McCarthy allies are quietly grumbling that Scalise could do more to help settle the speaker race, and one senior GOP aide expressed a worry to us recently that if McCarthy falls short again, he'll try to "sabotage" whomever emerges: "Kevin's going to have to decide how to leave," the person said. "Will he burn down the institution?" There's also speculation about whether he would stay in Congress at all. A former member with his vast network of relationships would obviously be in high demand at downtown lobbying firms and corporate boardrooms. But we know from covering him for years: McCarthy lives for the House. He loves talking to members, asking after their families and whipping votes. Not only that, he's been in politics since his early 20s, when he joined the staff of his hometown congressman, BILL THOMAS. Who is Kevin McCarthy without Congress? He would have a good excuse to stay. Given the GOP's slim majority, Republicans can hardly afford any vacancies — as the party leadership's ongoing silence over Rep.-elect GEORGE SANTOS' growing scandal demonstrates (more on that in a bit). So there is a real possibility that the new Congress may well get underway with an unusual spectacle: a former speaker (NANCY PELOSI) and two former majority leaders (STENY HOYER and McCarthy) roaming the aisles as back-benchers. Good Thursday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Binance: As the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance believes greater transparency is critical. At Binance, user assets are backed 1:1, and we're eager to work with regulators to help bring order to the markets. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | |  Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) | Scott Olson/Getty Images | THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — Olivia Beavers has much more on how the escalating clamor over Santos' fabricated background is crashing into the race for speaker — and the delicate numbers game that McCarthy is managing. "As of now, only Democrats are calling for Santos to resign from the post that was considered a longshot win for Republicans in the first place. And the GOP — both locally and in the House — is unlikely to call for him to step down in the thin majority," Olivia writes. "But one Republican familiar with the discussions said Santos has told New York party leaders that he won't seek reelection after this term. If he doesn't make that statement openly soon, the Republican said, he risks those leaders publicly pulling support." The probes begin: "George Santos Faces Federal and Local Investigations, and Public Dismay," by NYT's Michael Gold, Ed Shanahan, Brittany Kriegstein and Rebecca Davis O'Brien: "The federal investigation, which is being run by the U.S. attorney's office in Brooklyn, is focused at least in part on his financial dealings, according to a person familiar with the matter. The investigation was said to be in its early stages. In a separate inquiry, the Nassau County, N.Y., district attorney's office said it was looking into the 'numerous fabrications and inconsistencies associated with Congressman-elect Santos' during his successful 2022 campaign to represent parts of Long Island and Queens." The KFile treatment: "More false claims from George Santos about his work, education and family history emerge," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck: "CNN's KFile uncovered more falsehoods from Santos, including claims he was forced to leave a New York City private school when his family's real estate assets took a downturn and stating he represented Goldman Sachs at a top financial conference where he berated the company for investing in renewables. CNN also reviewed more instances of Santos providing additional false history of his family's background." And in case you were wondering: "Santos scandal has no parallel: top crisis communicators," by Julia Marsh
| | BIDEN'S THURSDAY: The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY: The vice president and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will depart D.C. en route to Los Angeles at 10:30 a.m.
THE HOUSE and SENATE are out. | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  National guard members check on residents amid a major snowstorm in Buffalo, N.Y., on Wednesday, Dec. 28. | Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS RASKIN DISCLOSES CANCER DIAGNOSIS — "Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland announces cancer diagnosis," by WaPo's Steve Thompson: "'After several days of tests, I have been diagnosed with Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma, which is a serious but curable form of cancer,' [Democratic Rep. JAMIE RASKIN] said. 'Prognosis for most people in my situation is excellent after four months of treatment.'" Raskin, who will be the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee next year, said he is about to enter outpatient treatment at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital and plans to continue working. From his statement: "I am advised that it also causes hair loss and weight gain (although I am still holding out hope for the kind that causes hair gain and weight loss)." GOING GONE — "Senate GOP dealmakers depart just as Congress control splits," by Marianne LeVine: "Their departures are coming at an inopportune time for Congress — with party control of the House and Senate split and both majorities razor-thin, legislating is expected to come to a near halt. But lawmakers will need bipartisan deal-makers to at least keep the government lights on and address inevitable crises." THE IRA'S LONG TAIL — "'The slippery slope is powerful': Dems believe drug pricing law will pay dividends," by Alice Miranda Ollstein: "This year's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act will empower Medicare to negotiate drug prices for the first time." THE LOCAL ANGLE — "How Steny Hoyer's powerful position paid dividends to Maryland," by WaPo's Meagan Flynn: "As Hoyer prepares to step down as House majority leader, his colleagues and allies at the local level say he's leaving a legacy of using that clout to bring greater resources to his district and the state — or to bring major federal buildings, as he continues to aggressively pursue bringing the FBI headquarters to Maryland. … And, winning reelection comfortably every year since 1981, he's remained popular locally, avoiding the fates of others in House leadership." BACK TO SCHOOL — "A 72-year-old congressman goes back to school, pursuing a degree in AI," by WaPo's Meagan Flynn: Rep. DON BEYER (D-Va.) "has been moonlighting as a student at George Mason University in pursuit of a master's degree in machine learning while balancing his duties as a congressman." THE WHITE HOUSE ON PACE — "Biden outpacing Trump, Obama with diverse judicial nominees," by AP's Seung Min Kim and Colleen Long: "So far, 97 lifetime federal judges have been confirmed under Biden, a figure that outpaces both Trump (85) and BARACK OBAMA (62) at this point in their presidencies. ...Three out of every four judges tapped by Biden and confirmed by the Senate in the past two years were women. About two-thirds were people of color. The Biden list includes 11 Black women to the powerful circuit courts, more than those installed under all previous presidents combined." POLICY CORNER IMMIGRATION FILES — "Will Lifting Title 42 Cause a Border Crisis? It's Already Here," by NYT's James Dobbins and Miriam Jordan in El Paso, Texas: "The southern border already is in the midst of a record-setting migration surge that is likely to persist for the foreseeable future. The border-control measure is full of exemptions under which tens of thousands of migrants every month are showing up at U.S. ports of entry with a relatively high degree of confidence that they will be allowed to stay." — "'This Is Not About the Pandemic Anymore': Public Health Law Is Embraced as Border Band-Aid," by NYT's Zolan Kanno-Youngs: "Democrats and Republicans have largely dropped the guise of public health concern and are instead using the law as a negotiating chip to try to secure a deal on border security and immigration." — Related read: "Mexico draws more asylum-seekers despite grisly violence," by AP's Elliot Spagat in Tijuana, Mexico THE LOOKAHEAD — "Key Tests Loom in 2023 for U.S. Antitrust Enforcers," by WSJ's Jan Wolfe
| | | | A message from Binance:   | | | ALL POLITICS WHAT TO WATCH IN THE NEW YEAR — "On the ballot in 2023: Southern governors, big-city mayors," by AP's Michelle Price: "The Republican Governors Association did not make someone available for an interview but noted in a statement that the only incumbent governor to lose in 2022 was a Democrat, STEVE SISOLAK of Nevada, 'and the RGA is ready to do it again in 2023.' … New Jersey Democratic Gov. PHIL MURPHY, who is taking over as chair of the Democratic Governors Association in 2023, said the group's 'highest priority, far and away, is to defend and reelect' [Kentucky Gov. ANDY] BESHEAR." — "New year expected to bring more changes to state voting laws," by AP's Nicholas Riccardi and Acacia Coronado 2024 WATCH — "A Republican free-for-all looms in 2024 Indiana Senate race," by Adam Wren GOLDEN STATE DOWNLOAD — "Newsom's moderate course in California angers critics as his national profile rises," by Jeremy White in Sacramento A NAME TO KNOW — "Oakland's Next Mayor Highlights Political Rise of Hmong Americans," by NYT's Amy Qin: "SHENG THAO, the daughter of refugees, will become the most prominent Hmong American politician when she leads the California city of 440,000 residents." BEYOND THE BELTWAY TRANSPORTATION TROUBLES — "Southwest's Woes No Longer 'Weather-Driven,' Transportation Secretary Says," by NYT's Robert Chiarito, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Jill Cowan and Daniel Victor: "The company has said it could be days until normal service resumes; more than 2,300 more flights on Thursday have already been canceled." — "How Southwest Airlines Melted Down," by WSJ's Alison Sider: "Even as it tried to solve one set of problems, new ones would emerge." — "Southwest didn't heed calls to upgrade tech before meltdown, unions say," by WaPo's Ian Duncan and Justin George THE CRISIS IN BUFFALO — "In Buffalo, Finger-Pointing and Mounting Criticism Over Storm Response," by NYT's Michael Regan, Lola Fadulu and Hurubie Meko: "The public finger-pointing was a dramatic development in a region where residents have been increasingly frustrated with the pace of storm response." SOUTHERN STRUGGLES — "Winter weather upends water systems across the Deep South," by AP's Michael Goldberg THE MIGRANT FLIGHTS — "Newly released records show top DeSantis adviser used private email and alias to coordinate migrant flights," by Matt Dixon in Tallahassee AMERICA AND THE WORLD PANDEMIC PRECAUTIONS — "U.S. to require travelers from China to show negative Covid-19 test result before flight," by CNN's Arlette Saenz, Kevin Liptak and Nikki Carvajal: "The tests can be either a PCR test or an antigen self-test administered through a telehealth service. The requirement will apply both to passengers flying directly to the United States from China, including Hong Kong and Macau, as well to passengers flying through popular third-country gateways, including Seoul, Toronto and Vancouver." — Related reads: "China Responds to U.S. Covid Testing Rule With a Collective Shrug," by NYT's Mike Ives, Amy Chang Chien, Claire Fu and Tiffany May … "Lack of info on China's COVID-19 surge stirs global concern," by AP's Ken Moritsugu And Huizhong Wu WORKIN' ON THE RAILROAD — "U.S. Champions of High-Speed Trains Find Adoring Fans — 7,000 Miles Away," by WSJ's Peter Landers in Tokyo and Sha Hua in Singapore: "Ambassadors RAHM EMANUEL in Japan and NICHOLAS BURNS in China gain attention for their railway enthusiasm—far, far from Washington D.C." FOR YOUR RADAR — "End of an era as Venezuela's opposition moves to end Guaidó experiment," by WaPo's Ana Vanessa Herrero, Samantha Schmidt and Karen DeYoung WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE GROUND — "Russia launches massive missile barrage across Ukraine," by AP's Renata Brito and Hanna Arhirova AUGMENTING AID — "First Javelins. Then HIMARS. Now Patriot. What's next?" by Paul McLeary, Erin Banco and Lara Seligman PEACE TALK UPDATE — "Hard-Line Positions by Russia and Ukraine Dim Hope for Peace Talks," by NYT's Shashank Bengali HOW IT HAPPENED — "Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war," by WaPo's Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne, Serhiy Morgunov and Kamila Hrabchuk
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Peter Thiel's conservatives-only dating app, The Right Stuff, is struggling to catch on. Ted Leonsis celebrated Capital One Arena's 25th anniversary. SPOTTED: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg having lunch with his mom Anne Montgomery on Monday at Zaytinya. TRANSITION — Claudia Urrabazo-Beckelman is joining Rep.-elect Rob Menendez's (D-N.J.) office as chief of staff. She currently is deputy member services director and senior adviser to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. ENGAGED — Colton Meehan, a government and public services consultant at Deloitte and a Trump White House and Labor Department alum, on Friday proposed to Lauren Hagen , who works in customer engagement at Boeing and is an alum of the Trump State Department and former second lady Karen Pence. The couple met in 2017 on top of the Watergate Hotel; he was at a friend's birthday while she was with a group of friends. He proposed in Tampa at the Stovall House. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT's Katie Rogers and Katie Glueck … Del. Aumua Amata Radewagen (R-American Samoa) … Reihan Salam of the Manhattan Institute … Jeremy Waldstreicher …POLITICO's Holly Otterbein, Grace Goodman, Muhammad Faiq and Amy McClurg … Washington Examiner's Grant Addison … Laura Friedel of the Senate Approps Labor-HHS subcommittee … Purple Strategies' Jordan Langdon and Katie Pudwill … Tom Jarriel … Blair Lyman Watters of InterDigital … Rally's Leo Wallach … Kevin Griffis … Ashleigh Banfield … NBC News PR's Claudia Meyer-Samargia … Boris Medzhibovsky ... Laura Clawson … Mike Woicekowski … IOC President Thomas Bach … Kaiser Health News' Rachel Bluth … Michael DeSantis … Edelman's Alexander Romano … Maria Randazzo of Dewey Square Group Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Binance: It's been a tough year for crypto. Macroeconomic headwinds have ushered in challenging market conditions, followed by unprecedented fraud and mismanagement. The combination rocked consumer confidence and created a level of skepticism about the future of crypto. Binance strongly believes crypto's best days remain ahead, but to get there, transparency is the only path forward. At Binance, we are investing in transparency protocols to demonstrate our strong financial health. Our capital structure is debt-free and all user assets are backed 1:1. Binance does not borrow against customers' funds or invest them without their consent. Most importantly, we look forward to working with policymakers to better protect consumers while promoting innovation. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
