| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy attends a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on Dec. 21, 2022. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Welcome to the 118th Congress, the new Republican House majority, and one of the most unpredictable and potentially chaotic scenarios we've seen on Capitol Hill. The House will gavel in at noon , and following a prayer, the Pledge of Allegiance and a quorum call, the clerk will immediately start the live roll call to elect the next speaker. GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, however, still hasn't clinched the votes he needs, and the day could drag late into the night, we're told, as Republicans grapple with choosing their leader. Be prepared for surprises and a lot of drama. Even veteran lawmakers who emerged from meetings with McCarthy on Monday evening weren't entirely sure how this will all shake out. We're told that McCarthy's plan, however, is to continue voting — over and over again — in a bid to wear down his detractors until he gets the gavel. GOP lawmakers will first huddle in the Capitol basement at 9:30 a.m. in a last-ditch, closed-door effort to find harmony. Fat chance. On Monday night, McCarthy met with some of his critics, including Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) and SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.), the Freedom Caucus chair. Gaetz emerged saying he's still opposed, and other McCarthy antagonists stood pat on Twitter. "Even after the McCarthy Machine's attempts to whip votes and smear my name for several weeks, McCarthy is still well short of the 218 threshold," wrote Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), who will stand as a stalking-horse candidate for the opposition on the first ballot. But McCarthy's allies say they won't be cowed by the "Never Kevin" crowd. "If they think this is going to be a game of chicken, to see who's going to blink first, they're going to be sadly surprised," Rep. GUY RESCHENTHALER (R-Pa.), the incoming chief deputy whip, told us. "We'll be here until the Fourth of July voting for McCarthy." But even McCarthy allies are now acknowledging he can't win the first vote. One told us Monday night there are currently about a dozen members opposed. And that might be an undercount: The Daily Caller's Michael Ginsberg and Henry Rodgers report that at least two members who opposed McCarthy in a November conference vote had not been whipped. One, Rep. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas), went on the record. The arithmetic is stark. Of the 434 members set to be sworn in tomorrow, 222 are Republicans. McCarthy will need 218 votes, and his plan for shrinking the opposition from a dozen-plus to fewer than five is sketchy at best.
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Learn more about our tools and set them up today. | | | Democratic leaders, meanwhile, are vowing that their members will all show up and vote for anyone but McCarthy — with the vast majority, if not all, calling out incoming Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES. If any Democrats decide to leave the voting early — or fail to show up entirely — they would help McCarthy by lowering the threshold he needs to vault. We ran into Rep. PETE AGUILAR (D-Calif.), the incoming Democratic caucus chair, on his way out of Jeffries' office Monday evening; he assured us Democrats would not be doing McCarthy any favors. Should votes drag into the wee hours of the morning, we could see Republicans move to adjourn until some future date, heralding a protracted speakership battle that would delay Republicans from staffing up committees, passing planned bills or even paying some of their employees. A majority would need to vote to adjourn, however, and it's not clear rebel Republicans and Democrats would agree to regroup. Amid the standoff, McCarthy is already working out of the speaker's office — a move that has further fueled the perception among his critics that McCarthy is acting entitled to the job rather than earning it. Still, his relocation signals that unlike his last failed attempt at the gavel in 2015, when he graciously bowed out before the vote, McCarthy now intends to fight. Adding further to the chaos Monday was a late-breaking ultimatum from the Club for Growth. As our colleague Olivia Beavers scooped, the influential lobby group issued a "whip notice … urging a no vote on McCarthy — without explicitly naming him — if he didn't concede to various rules being pushed by some of those opposing him, many of them members of the House Freedom Caucus." MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE CAPITOL — As McCarthy fights to realize his long-standing ambition, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL will be celebrating a milestone to which he has long aspired: The Kentucky Republican will officially become the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, surpassing the previous record of 16 years set by Majority Leader MIKE MANSFIELD in 1977. McConnell will mark the occasion by delivering a 20-minute tribute to Mansfield in the upper chamber at noon, the exact moment the House is set to begin moving toward the speaker vote. In a not-so-subtle nod to his own manner, McConnell will praise Mansfield's "lower-key, behind-the-scenes" style as a leader "who preferred to focus on serving their colleagues rather than dominating them," according to prepared remarks obtained by Playbook. The split screen will continue Wednesday. If House Republicans aren't still at loggerheads over the speakership, they could be moving forward with a rules package and organizing resolutions that set clear aim at President JOE BIDEN and his administration. McConnell, meanwhile, will appear right alongside Biden in Kentucky at an event highlighting last year's bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure deal. Ohio Gov. MIKE DeWINE and Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR will also be in attendance to spotlight a $1.6 billion federal commitment to rebuild the aging Brent Spence Bridge, which carries two interstate highways over the Ohio River.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | Good Tuesday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. We hope you got a good night's rest and packed a thermos full of coffee. It's going to be a long day. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. RUNNING THE RISKS — While you're probably still thinking "new year, new me," the Eurasia Group, the global risk advisory firm founded by IAN BREMMER, is focusing on all the terrible things potentially ahead. The firm released its Top Risks of 2023 report this morning, with a theme running through most of its top 10: "A small group of individuals have amassed an extraordinary amount of power, making decisions of profound geopolitical consequence with limited information in opaque environments." 1. Rogue Russia: "A humiliated Russia will turn from global player into the world's most dangerous rogue state, posing a serious security threat to Europe, the United States, and beyond." 2. Maximum Xi: Chinese President XI JINPING "is virtually unfettered in his ability to pursue his statist and nationalist policy agenda. But with few checks and balances left to constrain him and no dissenting voices to challenge his views, Xi's ability to make big mistakes is also unrivaled." 3. Weapons of mass disruption: The U.S. "has become the principal exporter of tools that undermine democracy. … Resulting technological advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will erode social trust, empower demagogues and authoritarians, and disrupt businesses and markets." More risks: Inflation shockwaves … Iran in a corner … Energy crunch … Arrested global development … Divided States of America … TikTok boom … Water stress The red herrings: Cracks in support for Ukraine … EU political dysfunction … threats against Taiwan
| | BIDEN'S TUESDAY — The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10:15 a.m.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2:30 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY:
Noon: The VP will preside over the Senate and administer the oath of office to senators.
1 p.m.: Harris will ceremonially swear in senators in the Old Senate Chamber.
WHITE HOUSE WEEK AHEAD:
— Wednesday: Biden and Harris will both hit the road to tout the administration's economic and infrastructure plans — the president in Covington, Ky., and the VP in Chicago.
— Thursday: Biden will host a Cabinet meeting.
— Friday: Biden will commemorate the anniversary of the Capitol insurrection with an East Room ceremony, and then head to Wilmington, Del. | | | | | | A NEW POLITICO PODCAST: POLITICO Tech is an authoritative insider briefing on the politics and policy of technology. From crypto and the metaverse to cybersecurity and AI, we explore the who, what and how of policy shaping future industries. SUBSCRIBE AND START LISTENING TODAY. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden speaks to the media as he returns to the White House on Monday, Jan. 2., in Washington, D.C. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS EARLY AND OFTEN — DONALD TRUMP's crusade against early and mail voting is no victory plan for the GOP, Jessica Piper reports from a new analysis of voting data. In fact, those methods — at least as seen in Kentucky, Nevada and Vermont — don't really appear to benefit either party: "Republicans do not do themselves any favors when they follow in Trump's footsteps and vilify early voting: It puts more onus on their voters to cast ballots on a single day. But there is little evidence that expanding voter access tilts elections toward Democrats, either." 2024 WATCH — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS' inauguration today for his second term "is already being seen as the start of his audition for the presidency," the Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas reports from Tallahassee. Observers are watching closely to see how much his first speech post-swearing in focuses on state vs. national issues, and on red meat for the conservative base vs. broader appeals to moderates. — Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN and Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN are neighboring GOP leaders eyeing the 2024 presidential race — but they'd enter a campaign with very different approaches and politics, WaPo's Laura Vozzella and Erin Cox report in a compare-and-contrast story. Though Youngkin's time in office has been much shorter, Republican analysts say he has a better shot, because Hogan has been too vocally anti-Trump to win over the base. THE WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC REPORT CARD — Two years into his presidency, Biden's legislative record has made him "among the most economically consequential presidents of the last century" and possibly transformed the country's economic landscape, NYT's Jim Tankersley reports. The big question is whether he can sustain the changes — through implementation of the new laws, and through a potential recession. CONGRESS THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — The scandal surrounding Rep.-elect GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) is officially entering a new phase: Brazilian prosecutors told NYT's Grace Ashford and André Spigariol that they're reopening a criminal fraud case against him. The charges over a stolen checkbook in 2008, when he was 19, had sat dormant for years because Brazilian officials couldn't find Santos. But prosecutors are now planning to notify DOJ that they're moving forward with the case again and asking Santos for a response. Though Santos seemed to admit guilt in an online message in 2009, he's recently denied any criminal culpability. ETHICS WATCH — House Republicans' new rules package alters the independent, nonpartisan Office of Congressional Ethics in ways that outside watchdogs are decrying, WSJ's Natalie Andrews reports. The rules changes, which could go up for vote in the chamber today, would impose term limits on the OCE board — forcing the majority of Democratic members to depart — and prevent the office from hiring new staff for a month. THE NEW HOUSE MINORITY — More Latino new members are joining Congress this year than ever before — and though they represent both parties, many are young progressives planning to push the Democratic Party left, WaPo's Silvia Foster-Frau reports. UNSTOPPABLE FORCE, IMMOVABLE OBJECT — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) is about to take over as Senate HELP chair — and health care lobbyists are bracing for a newly chilly reception, Megan Wilson reports this morning. FUN ONE — Fourteen departing members of Congress shared their advice for new members with POLITICO Magazine this morning. A few words of wisdom that caught our eye:
- Rep. PETER DeFAZIO (D-Ore.): "When in doubt, beer is a great bridge to help span the partisan divide."
- Rep. LEE ZELDIN (R-N.Y.): "Try to make a maximum impact throughout the time you have in Congress, but then leave before too long and allow someone else to come in and take your position. You would be making our founding fathers much prouder."
- Sen. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.), ever the photographer: "Never tire of appreciating the 'pinch me moments' you will encounter in this building, like seeing the Capitol bathed in light at night."
MADAM SPEAKER — As NANCY PELOSI steps aside from the helm of the House, WaPo's Paul Kane has a big collection of her recent reflections to reporters and some of her quotes and photos in the Post through the decades. One notable line: "What would I have done differently? Won more elections and not given [Republicans] the power to do what they did. Make sure that a creature like Donald Trump never became president of the United States." JUNIOR YEAR — The 2018 midterms swept a wave of new Democratic women into the House, 25 of whom are now entering their third term — and increasingly the group is taking on prominent leadership positions in their party, The 19th's Grace Panetta and Mel Leonor Barclay report this morning. Several are leading "key caucuses that shape policy, influence the party's priorities and messaging and serve as springboards for future leaders." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH COMMITTEE LATEST — Kyle Cheney dives deeper into the weekend trove of documents released by the House Jan. 6 committee, which "provide the clearest glimpse yet at the well-coordinated effort by some Trump allies to help Trump seize a second term he didn't win … [and add] extraordinary new elements to the case the select committee presented in public." Among the notable pieces: a text from DAN SCAVINO indicating that Trump himself wrote the tweet urging supporters to come to D.C. on Jan. 6. And call logs show Trump's furious efforts to hold on to power around that time. SAY GOODBYE — "Jan. 6 panel shutting down after referring Trump for crimes," by AP's Mary Clare Jalonick: "Some of the committee's work — such as videotape of hundreds of witness interviews — will not be made public immediately. The committee is sending those videos and some other committee records to the National Archives, which by law would make them available in 50 years. … Incoming Republican leaders may try to get those materials much sooner, though. A provision in a package of proposed House rules released Sunday calls for the National Archives to transfer 'any records related to the committee' back to the House no later than Jan. 17. It is unclear whether the GOP-led House could enforce the provision." — To wit: The committee sent the White House a letter Friday cautioning that it may not be able to protect the anonymity of people who worked with the investigation once the panel dissolves, CNN's Zachary Cohen and Jeremy Herb report. The letter THE VIEW FROM THE CAPITOL POLICE — Chief TOM MANGER vowed in a statement Monday that two years after the insurrection, U.S. Capitol Police have made plenty of changes to be prepared for such a crisis in the future. Notably, Manger said staffing levels will soon surpass pre-pandemic numbers. "With the polarized state of our nation, an attack like the one our Department endured on January 6, 2021, could be attempted again," he wrote. "Should the unthinkable happen, we will be ready."
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — Pandemic-era tweaks to operating procedures at the Supreme Court have led to much lengthier oral arguments this term, with questions and answers often pushing past two hours instead of the standard one hour of the past, AP's Jessica Gresko reports. Justices are asking more questions overall, because they've combined the typical free-for-all session with time for each individual justice to ask additional questions in order of seniority, which they did by phone during remote Covid hearings. MUSK READS X MARKS THE SPOT — "Why Elon Musk's 'X App' could be an even bigger mess than Twitter," by Rebecca Kern, Sam Sutton, Ruth Reader and Tanya Snyder: "The idea is a Western version of WeChat, the Chinese super-app that more than a billion people use for messaging, payments, shopping, rideshares, gaming, news and other daily activities. Musk is clearly serious about the plan … But building a 'super-app' like WeChat is a far more complicated challenge than Twitter, with far more points of conflict with regulators in Washington, California, Brussels and elsewhere. Nothing like it exists yet in the West." AMERICA AND THE WORLD LITTLE ROCKET MAN — "U.S. in Talks With Seoul on Deterring North Korea From Using Nukes," by Bloomberg's Jenny Leonard, Alexis Shanes and Sangmi Cha: "A senior administration official said discussions are centered on enhanced information sharing, joint planning and table-top exercises on a range of scenarios, including the use of nuclear weapons. There is no timing yet for the table-top exercise but the goal is to have it in the near future." "Ukraine shot down all 39 drones from Russia on Monday," NYT "What's Going to Be in Biden's Inbox in 2023," Foreign Policy THE ECONOMY RECESSION WATCH — Among nearly two dozen big financial institutions, the percentage of economists predicting a U.S. recession this year tops two-thirds, WSJ's Dion Rabouin reports. A couple more say they think it'll arrive in 2024. They largely cite the Fed's aggressive rate raising as the reason why. "Of course, almost everyone on Wall Street and in Washington got 2022 wrong," Rabouin notes. "Stay for Pay? Companies Offer Big Raises to Retain Workers," WSJ BEYOND THE BELTWAY TERROR ON THE HOME FRONT — A 19-year-old who allegedly injured three cops with a machete close to Times Square on New Year's Eve was motivated by Islamic extremism, officials said, per NYT's Andy Newman and Mihir Zaveri. "TikTok Ban Debate Moves From Washington to Main Street," WSJ "Arizona inducing the labor of pregnant prisoners against their will," Arizona Republic
| | | | POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Gabby Giffords was grand marshal of the Rose Parade, and Mark Kelly was loving it. Mike Pence indirectly took a shot at Donald Trump and his contention that abortion damaged Republicans in the midterms. Marcia Fudge today will deliver the oath for Congressional Black Caucus members, calling them "the conscience of the Congress." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Erin Perrine is joining Clout Public Affairs as comms director. She most recently was VP at TAG Strategies, and is a Ted Cruz and Kevin McCarthy alum. — Mark Ratner is now director of coalitions for Senate HELP Republicans. He previously was deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.). TRANSITIONS — Incoming House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced his senior staff: Tasia Jackson as chief of staff, Gideon Bragin as executive director, Emily Noriega-May as deputy chief of staff for operations, Wayne Williams as deputy chief of staff for engagement, Zoë Oreck as policy director, Stephanie Palencia as director of outreach, Moh Sharma as director of member services, Christie Stephenson as comms director, Nnemdilim "Nd" Ubezonu as floor director, Emily Berret as executive director of the transition, and George Kundanis and Drew Sachse as senior advisers to Jeffries. … … The new House Oversight GOP majority is adding Lauren Camp as press secretary and Ryan Giachetti as counsel. Camp previously was deputy press secretary for the House Ways and Means GOP. Giachetti previously was a professional staff member for the House Administration GOP. … Leighton Huch is joining the New Democrat Coalition as policy director. She previously was deputy chief of staff for policy and operations for Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.). … Raymond Rodriguez is joining Rep. Mike Levin's (D-Calif.) office as comms director. He previously was national press secretary for House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and is a Ritchie Torres alum. ENGAGED — Kameryn Stanhouse, head of corporate ad sales at POLITICO, and Kelley O'Hara, U.S. Women's National Team soccer star, Olympic gold medalist and World Cup champion, got engaged on New Year's Eve. They celebrated with friends and family at St. Anselm. Pic … Another pic — Daniel Fisher, finance director for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and Nick Stewart, chief of staff to Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), got engaged at their home in Upstate New York. Fisher celebrated by making the perfect New Year's brisket. They met in 2020 while working at the State Department. Pic — Devin Urness, an associate at Hogan Lovells, proposed to Ellie Warner, director of institutional advancement at the Meridian International Center and a Tim Kaine, Mark Warner and Terry McAuliffe alum, over the holidays in her home state of Minnesota, surrounded by her family. The couple met when Ellie lived with one of Devin's close college friends. Pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), now a managing director at Allen & Co., and Lynlie Marie Wallace, legislative and regulatory counsel for Focused Advocacy, got married Saturday on their property in Helotes, Texas. They rang in New Year's Eve with the wedding, fireworks and Tex-Mex cuisine in an intimate ceremony with family and friends. The couple met in 2009 at a Bexar County Republican Party event. Twitter pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Rep.-elect Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) and Emily Hunt, pediatric nurse practitioner at Texas Children's Hospital, welcomed Willie Parish Hunt II, named after Wesley's father. Pic — Jessica Reis, a managing director at Bully Pulpit Interactive, and Anthony DeAngelo, head of public affairs and strategic communications at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, welcomed Teresa Mary Lourdes DeAngelo on Wednesday. Her name honors two of her great-grandmothers. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Marc Veasey (D-Texas) … Rep.-elect Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) … Brad Parscale … NYT's David Fahrenthold and Marc Tracy … Greta Thunberg … Verizon's Chris DeBosier … Tim Rieser … Igor Volsky of Guns Down America … Marcie Ridgway Kinzel ... David Margolick … Kaiser Health News' Noam Levey ... Jenna Golden … Sarah Lenti … McKinsey's Jonathan Spaner … L.D. Platt … Zach Gates of Rep. Ann Wagner's (R-Mo.) office … National Education Association's Conor Hurley … Carolyn Fiddler … James Hunter … POLITICO's Matt Woelfel and Laura Kayali … E&E News' Marc Heller … Al Cardenas … former Treasury Secretary W. Michael Blumenthal … Romina Boccia … Betty Rollin … Erik Larson … "Chef" Geoff Tracy … Richard Ben-Veniste Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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