Welcome to the Virus Briefing, your comprehensive guide to the latest news and expert analysis on the coronavirus pandemic and other outbreaks. |
 | | A drive-through Covid-19 testing site in Los Angeles last month.Mark Abramson for The New York Times |
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It's a confusing time in the pandemic. |
For those of us who track the virus, we're used to looking at a bunch of signals and trying to discern where things are headed. But over time, those signals have gotten more complicated — especially as some states have begun reporting their Covid data less frequently or reliably. |
One thing seems likely: This winter will not look like last year, when Omicron drove up cases, hospitalizations and deaths into the stratosphere — an anomaly that some experts say we may never see again. Instead, the winter of 2023 in the U.S. will likely be defined by the strength of XBB.1.5, a highly contagious and immune- evasive Omicron subvariant that's gaining ground across the country. |
Today, we're taking a look at what the Covid data is telling us, and the forces that may shape the pandemic this winter. |
Coming out of the holidays, the country saw a large uptick in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and it looked like we were possibly headed for another deadly winter wave. But in recent days, cases and hospitalizations have begun to level off or come down nationally. |
Consider the Northeast: The Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was first discovered in New York in the fall, and for the last month or so it has been driving up cases and hospitalizations in the region. The subvariant now makes up about 83 percent of cases in the Northeast, according to C.D.C. data. |
But over the last 10 days or so, those trends have started to reverse. Wastewater data show cases in the region dropping, and hospitalizations have also begun to decline. |
"In New York, I do think it's reasonable to say that XBB.1.5 has peaked in terms of infections and hospitalizations," said Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator. "That is all heartening and important, and I do think that it says that XBB.1.5 is certainly not leading to a major wave in the Northeast." |
While that might be positive news for the region, most of the rest of the country has yet to have its own turn with the new variant, and when it spreads it will likely lead to an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. |
"I think based on everything we know right now, I don't think we're expecting some major waves because, again, we didn't see it in the Northeast," Dr. Jha said. |
The best estimates from the White House as to how many people are currently infected, Dr. Jha said, is at about the same level as during the BA.5 wave this summer, but with much less severe outcomes. |
"What you're seeing is a transition to ongoing transmission but much milder infections," Dr. Céline Gounder, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told my colleagues at The Morning. |
Tracking hospitalizations, it looks as though the wintertime surge of 2022-23 is less severe than winter surges in the past two years. |
 | | Data is through Jan. 12, 2023; chart shows a seven-day daily average. | Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services |
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That said, our death rate is still way too high — we're averaging about 540 deaths per day. Dr. Jha told me that many of those deaths are the result of the increase in infections during the holidays, and that "almost all of them are people who are either not up-to-date on their vaccines, or did not get treated, and often, both." |
While recent signs out of the Northeast are trending positive, there's a new curveball that's disrupting our understanding of the pandemic this year: viral interference. |
It's the theory that when we have multiple viruses during a season — as we did this year with R.S.V., the flu and Covid — they won't peak at the same time. |
"The idea is that you're going to see viruses take turns, one after the other," said my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter who tracks the virus. "That's because when our bodies are exposed to one virus, our immune systems go on high alert, and we are better able to defend against viruses." |
This year, R.S.V. surged and peaked in mid-November. The flu peaked next, reaching highs in December. "So now with Covid we have to wait and see," Apoorva said, "because last year, by this time, Omicron was blazing but that may all just be pushed out this year because R.S.V. and flu were there first." |
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How the pandemic changed you |
Last week, we let you know that this newsletter is winding down and will be paused at the end of this month. We also asked you one final question: How has the pandemic changed you? Thank you to everyone who wrote in. |
(If you'd like to send us a response, you can do so here. We may use your response in the final edition of the newsletter next week.) |
"There is no easy way to build up to the answer to this question so I'll just say it: the pandemic years have made me so much more fearful. I lost people during these years, and now I think about death so much more often, and feel afraid my time is somehow coming soon too. I feel scared and anxious just leaving my apartment. I fear that I am retreating into some sort of shell that I will never be able to fully come out of again. We have all experienced a huge, collective trauma and it's as if the world wants us to forget it all and somehow be "normal" again. I don't think I can be, or want to be." |
— Kellye R., New York, N.Y. |
"I caught Covid on March 3, 2020. It turned into pneumonia, then a bewildering array of symptoms nobody understood and many doctors didn't believe were real. I was one of the first wave of long Covid sufferers, and it has completely destroyed my life. I had been self-employed as a freelance translator, but I haven't been able to work for almost three years, or do much of anything beyond trying to manage countless medical appointments and treatments. I used to be a dancer, and now I am lucky to manage a slow walk of a few blocks. I have lost almost all of my friends, as I am no longer "fun" and don't have the energy to do anything social. I don't recognize myself anymore." |
— Tascha Babitch, Portland, Ore. |
"Three years ago this March, I met my husband on a Hinge date. We barely knew each other two weeks when the world ground to a halt, but we both knew (well, hoped) that we had something special. We decided to spend the lockdown together. For everyone in our lives, the pandemic accelerated relationships, for better or for worse. Some broke up; others shacked up. We (1) moved in together; (2) got engaged; and (3) got married inside of a year and a half. As we saw it, we were spending 24 hours a day together, and a 1.5-year-long relationship during Covid was easily equivalent to a three, nay, five-year relationship in normal times. He's my soul mate, and I can thank the pandemic for giving us more hours together than I could've ever dreamed possible." |
— Cayman Mitchell, New York, N.Y. |
"It has made me realize that my fellow countrymen are not as interested in helping out their fellow man. I have far less of an allegiance to my country then I ever had in my previous 39 years of life. I am disappointed in the societal response, and will no longer be nearly as patriotic, and will not have the same urgency to lend a helping hand to others, knowing it was not reciprocated in the past. I find myself hating people I used to love, and feeling indifferent toward people I respected. I am now in it for myself and will think of me first in situations where I used to consider what was best for most. I no longer care about others." |
— Matt Benedetti, Anchorage, Alaska |
"As a nurse who graduated at the beginning of the pandemic, the past three years have been a roller coaster of emotions. At first, I was excited to be on the front lines, helping to fight this new virus. But as the months went on, the reality of the situation set in. The long hours, the constant fear of bringing the virus home to my loved ones, and the emotional toll of seeing so much suffering took a heavy toll on me. I eventually became burned out and had to step away from the job for a while. But as the pandemic continued, I couldn't shake the feeling that I needed to be back in the fight. So, I decided to return to nursing, but this time with a new perspective and a deeper understanding of the importance of self-care. I am grateful for the opportunity to have been a part of this once-in-a-generation event, and for the compassion and strength it has helped me to find within myself." |
— Steven Walker, New York, N.Y. |
What else we're following |
- China said on Saturday that it had recorded nearly 60,000 fatalities linked to the coronavirus in the month since the country lifted its strict "zero Covid" policy.
- China's vast machinery of virus surveillance and testing has collapsed, and now angry pandemic-control workers are demanding wages and jobs.
- The Chinese economy had one of its worst performances in decades last year as growth was dragged down by numerous Covid lockdowns followed by a deadly outbreak in December.
- A new report found that Covid was the leading cause of death for law enforcement officers in the U.S. for a third year in a row, ABC reports.
- A study found that pregnant women infected with Covid are seven times more likely to die than those who were not infected, The Washington Post reports.
- My boss told my co-workers that I had Covid. Is that illegal?
- Several celebrities, including Colin Farrell, Jamie Lee Curtis and Michelle Pfeiffer, tested positive for Covid after the Golden Globe Awards, BBC reports.
- Sister André, a French nun who lived through two world wars and survived Covid, died on Tuesday in France at the age of 118.
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| Thanks for reading. I'll be back Wednesday. — Jonathan |
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