| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss the latest signs that Trump might be ready to take military action against Iran as negotiators meet for high-stakes talks.
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| Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, struggling a little with the post-Olympics lull. Roll on March … Madness, sunshine and baseball season all await. Get in touch. SCOOP — THAT WAS FAST: Trump’s made-for-TV State of the Union moment calling for lawmakers to stand if they agreed that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens” is already a Republican campaign ad, Dasha scoops this morning. Conservative group American Sovereignty will today launch the first TV ad featuring the stunt, as part of a seven-figure ad campaign focused on immigration. The ad will run nationally, but especially target key states Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia. As Playbook told you yesterday, you’re going to be seeing that clip all year long. The 30-second video shows Republicans standing and clapping for Trump, followed by shots of Democrats fixed to their seats. It closes with on-screen text stating: “Democrats Are For Illegal Immigrant Criminals; Republicans Are For You” — a knowing callback to that Trump campaign ad from 2024. Watch the ad here So did Dems get it wrong by staying in their seats? “I just was not gonna participate in that kind of stunt,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin, the former CIA analyst-turned-Democratic senator, explained in an interview with Dasha for this week’s episode of “The Conversation.” “The average American does not track who stands … They wanna know what the plan is to put more money in their pocket.” The full episode airs tomorrow. Subscribe here In today’s Playbook … — Give peace a chance? Witkoff and Kushner sit down with Iran. — Hillary Clinton is back under GOP scrutiny as she testifies on Epstein. — And why the hate for Howard Lutnick just won’t go away.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | HAPPENING RIGHT NOW: President Donald Trump’s most-trusted envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are due inside the Omani Embassy in Geneva this morning for negotiations with Iran’s most senior diplomat, Abbas Araghchi. All the evidence suggests America is on the brink of war. Must-read development: Last night, Dasha and ace colleague Nahal Toosi revealed conversations are happening in and around the White House about the sequencing of air strikes on Iran — with U.S. officials suggesting “the politics” would be better domestically if Israel delivered the first attack. This is important, chiefly because it gives us an indication of just how developed these war plans have become. As Dasha and Nahal write, regardless of who actually launches first (and to be clear, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes remain the most likely option), “the primary question is becoming when and how the U.S. attacks.” Just as significantly, over recent days we’ve seen a shift in language from senior Trump administration figures indicating they’re making the case for war.
- Last Saturday, Witkoff told Fox News that Iran is “probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb-making material” — creating a new sense of urgency about the need to act. (The WSJ reports this claim is false, citing multiple experts and diplomats close to Iran.)
- Then on Tuesday, Witkoff told a private gathering that America will not accept a “sunset clause” in any nuclear deal with Iran, as former President Barack Obama did in 2015 — potentially raising the bar for an agreement. (Axios’ Barak Ravid got the scoop.)
- On Tuesday night, Trump used his State of the Union address to claim Iran is “starting [its nuclear program] all over” following last summer’s U.S. air strikes, while also “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”
- And last night, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran already poses a “very great threat” to America, due to ballistic missiles that could strike U.S. bases in the Middle East and “naval assets,” which “try to threaten the U.S. Navy.” He added: “I want everybody to understand that beyond just the nuclear program, they possess these conventional weapons that are solely designed to attack America and attack Americans.” It all feels very 2003.
- Warming to the theme, Rubio also indicated America is on board with Israel’s demand that Iran give up not just its nuclear aspirations, but also its arsenal of ballistic missiles — potentially raising the bar further for a long-term deal. “Iran refuses to talk about ballistic missiles, to us or to anyone,” Rubio said. “And that’s a big problem.”
| | | | A message from AHIP: 35 Million Seniors Could See Reduced Benefits and Higher Costs. Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | To be clear: Rubio insisted that diplomacy is still America’s favored path, and of course today’s talks haven’t wrapped up. And with Trump, anything is possible. But if he’s bluffing, it’s a posture that will come at quite a cost. Reminder: POLITICO reported the Iran deployment — coupled with the January operation to oust former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — “could cost billions of dollars, and strain military budgets with extended deployments.” The WSJ reported graphically on the individual toll on thousands of young American sailors on board the USS Gerald R. Ford, which has been redeployed to the Mediterranean with all plans for leave canceled. Even today, the astonishing military buildup continues. The Jerusalem Post revealed a squadron of F-22s — an advanced fighter jet the U.S. government has banned from being exported even to its closest allies — just landed in Israel. The WSJ reports this is the first time America has ever “deployed combat aircraft to the country for a potential wartime mission.” So what happens next? It’s been a week since Trump gave Iran “10 or 15 days” to make a decision. The domestic theater of the State of the Union is now behind us. The U.S. aircraft carriers are broadly in position. Today’s negotiations are obviously still playing out, and Rubio is due to hold talks with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday. But you’d be wise to keep a close eye on your phone this weekend. IN CASE YOU FORGOT … There’s a major war still ongoing in Ukraine, and when Witkoff and Kushner are done with Iran they’ll head straight into talks with a Ukrainian delegation later this morning. One of Trump's biggest critics in the Senate, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, said last night “it doesn’t make any sense” to have the same two-man negotiating team — neither of them confirmed by Congress — working on both these massive projects at the same time.” Worth noting: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday he expects another three-way negotiation, with the Russians also at the table, to happen next week — with a three-way leaders’ summit (featuring himself, Trump and Vladimir Putin) following shortly after. This would obviously be a huge deal. But there’s been no indication from Putin that he’s prepared to take part.
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| | | | MEANWHILE IN CHAPPAQUA WELCOME TO CLINTON COUNTRY: Members of the House Oversight Committee are taking a trip to the sleepy hamlet of Chappaqua, New York, where they’ll grill Bill and Hillary Clinton over their ties to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It’s quite a moment: Two of the biggest political figures of the past 40 years, dragged before Congress to answer for their links to one of the most notorious criminals of recent times. The closed-door depositions begin today with Hillary, followed by Bill tomorrow. It will be the first time a former president has ever been compelled to testify in a congressional investigation against his will. Called to account: These interviews may prove the most high-profile point in the panel’s monthslong investigation into Epstein, which has cast a spotlight onto the dark shadows of the global elite. Their testimony follows the arrests in Britain of former prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson, the former British ambassador to Washington, both of which put pressure on the panel to hold Epstein’s associates stateside equally accountable, POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs reports. To be clear: Neither Clinton has been accused of wrongdoing. Bill appears numerous times in the tranche of files released by the Justice Department, but has maintained that he stopped communicating with Epstein at least a decade before his (second) arrest in 2019. Hillary has said she “cannot recall ever speaking to Epstein.” As the NYT’s Annie Karni notes, this is just the latest in a long line of uncomfortable incidents requiring Hillary “to answer for her spouse’s actions and relationships.” For a couple who were standard bearers of the Democratic Party for years, it must be painful to see the embers of their power dim. But a new generation of Democrats prize this public form of justice (and, perhaps, a new precedent of presidential accountability) over fealty to their forebearers. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), Oversight’s top Democrat, told Playbook’s Ali Bianco that “both Republicans and Democrats” are “glad” the deposition is happening. Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) told Playbook’s Irie Sentner it’s “really important” that anyone with information related to the investigation testifies — “no matter what party, status, wealth.” Ansari, who at 33 was born less than a year before Bill Clinton was sworn in as president, said the panel planned to ask if the Clintons knew anyone who “enabled” Epstein, nail down details about others they saw associating with him and determine “in what context” they were present. Although the depositions are private, members of the panel plan to speak to reporters at the conclusion of each session. That could be an unwelcome distraction for House Democrats in particular, who are on the second day of a retreat plotting how to win back the chamber in November. During the retreat’s first day, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger “talked about the importance of meeting independent and Republican voters where they’re at, including on the topic of protecting transgender children” POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy writes in. “She urged members to tackle the tough issues by stating their values plainly.” More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress
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➡️ Subscribe Now | | | | | INSIDE 1600 PENN MUST-READ: “Tensions simmer over Howard Lutnick, Trump’s favorite dealmaker,” by POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Daniel Lippman: “In a White House that prizes spectacle, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has mastered the art of the announcement. But behind the scenes, his habit of jumping into complex projects and claiming the win has created growing resentment among other officials irritated at having to clean up the details once the cameras are off. … [S]ome Cabinet secretaries and senior officials in the administration are increasingly wary of what they describe as his brash and controlling style — and whether he can deliver on the $18 trillion in pledged investments Trump claims he’s promised.” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement Trump “maintains complete confidence in Secretary Lutnick.” SELLING SOTU: Trump in his State of the Union address endeavored to hammer home to voters ahead of midterm elections that he’s shepherding in a new “golden age.” Now the White House is leaning on his deputies to sell it. That starts today with VP JD Vance, who’s jetting off to Plover, Wisconsin (population: 14,208) to “deliver remarks celebrating the Trump Administration’s accomplishments following the President’s State of the Union address.” This isn’t the VP’s first rodeo: As one of the White House’s favorite communicators, he’s been combining his working-class bona fides and firebrand rhetoric in reddish parts of purplish states for months. But as polling continues to sour on the White House’s handling of the economy, the pressure is on. VANCE’S NEW JOB: And the VP isn’t just the White House’s talker (and poster) in chief — he’s also leading the administration’s “war on fraud,” as Trump announced in his Tuesday night address. That new role began with a bang yesterday when Vance announced the administration would withhold $259 million in Medicaid payments to Minnesota, the latest turn in the social-media-born fraud scandal that fueled the White House’s dramatic immigration operation in Minneapolis last month. More from WaPo’s Matt Viser and Dan Diamond SCOTUS AFTER SOTU: “Where Trump’s Clash With the Supreme Court Goes Next,” by POLITICO Magazine’s Ankush Khardori in his latest Rules of Law column: “Among legal observers I’ve spoken to, there has been plenty of speculation about what the court’s tariff ruling — a seminal moment in Trump’s second term — might tell us.”
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST RACE OF THE DAY: “Republicans’ alarm grows about holding Texas Senate seat,” by POLITICO’s Liz Crampton and colleagues. “Republicans in Washington are growing more alarmed that their increasingly vicious intraparty contest could cost them a must-win Senate seat.” Sen. John Cornyn and Texas AG Ken Paxton appear on track for an expensive and bitter 10-week runoff, with a strong chance Paxton wins even after Republicans spent months airing his dirty laundry all over the airwaves. A Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn tells POLITICO: “All signs indicate that Paxton probably finishes first. … We’re just hoping the gap is close enough the narrative isn’t ‘Paxton kicked the crap out of Cornyn.’” Only five days to go. FOR YOUR RADAR: Cuban border troops killed four people and wounded six aboard a Florida speedboat in an incident the island’s Interior Ministry called an attempted terrorist attack, NYT reports. The incident came as Rubio, who is leading talks with Cuba, was in St. Kitts and Nevis speaking to Caribbean leaders after the U.S. conducted numerous strikes on alleged drug boats, deposed Venezuela’s president and is choking Cuba, a longtime U.S. adversary. PHONE IT IN: “FBI obtained Kash Patel and Susie Wiles phone records during Biden administration,” by Reuters’ Jana Winter: “The FBI subpoenaed records of phone calls made by Kash Patel and Susie Wiles, now the FBI director and White House Chief of Staff, when they were both private citizens in 2022 and 2023 during the federal probe of Donald Trump … Reuters is the first to report on the FBI’s actions that took place during the Biden administration, largely when Special Counsel Jack Smith was investigating whether Trump had interfered with the 2020 election and had hidden classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.” Patel called the subpoenas “outrageous and deeply alarming.” Following the Reuters report, the FBI fired at least 10 agents who worked on the Mar-a-Lago documents investigation, CBS’ Sarah Lynch reports. SHOCKING STORY: “Blind refugee abandoned by Border Patrol is dead,” by InvestigativePost’s J. Dale Shoemaker: “Nurul Amin Shah Alam, a nearly blind refugee from Burma who Border Patrol agents dropped off at a doughnut shop Thursday and left to find his way home, 5 miles away, has been found dead.” INSIDE THE RACE FOR CALIFORNIA: “California’s governor race has a clear top tier,” by POLITICO’s Jeremy White: “The contest to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom has been unusually muddled without a decisive frontrunner … That has created the most open-ended campaign in memory for the state’s top job. … Still, the contest has separated into two distinct tiers, according to [a] new survey. The top five contenders — three Democrats and two Republicans — all logged double-digit support that tops out in the low teens, while a cluster of Democrats straggled behind at five percent or lower.”
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➡️ Get on the Invite List | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | NETFLIX NOT CHILL — Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos is heading to the White House today amid the company’s bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery and Trump’s call for Netflix to fire board member Susan Rice, POLITICO’s Yasmin Khorram reports. JOHNNY MAGA UNMASKED — “A White House Staffer Appears to Run Massive Pro-Trump X Account,” by Wired’s Makena Kelly: “To its audience, Johnny MAGA looked like an independent voice, another outraged supporter in the MAGA media ecosystem. … But this isn’t just a regular account. Johnny MAGA appears to actually be a White House staffer named Garrett Wade who works for the Trump administration as a rapid response manager, helping to run the very same White House account his anonymous MAGA account amplifies.” DEMOCRACY DIES IN DEBT — The Washington Post lost more than $100 million last year ahead of its leaders' shocking decision to cleave the newsroom staff, laying off hundreds of journalists, WSJ’s Alexandra Bruell reports. That figure follows another $100 million loss in 2024 and a $77 million loss in 2023, according to details shared by acting CEO and Publisher Jeff D’Onofrio and Executive Editor Matt Murray yesterday in a staff meeting. OUT AND ABOUT — Bloomberg Government hosted a “State of the Union: What Comes Next?” breakfast at the Hotel Washington yesterday. SPOTTED: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), Viet Shelton, Will Kiley, Matthew Hoekstra, Maeve Sheehey, Kate Ackley, Greg Giroux, Liam Quinn, Josh Eastright and Cesca Antonelli. — Semafor hosted its annual Restoring Trust in Media Summit yesterday. SPOTTED: FCC Chair Brendan Carr, Mathias Döpfner, Justin Smith, Ben Smith, Matt Murray, Kristen Welker, Jacqui Heinrich, Max Tani, Rachel Keidan, Hamish McKenzie, Deborah Turness, Maribel Pérez Wadsworth, Sarah Longwell, Adam Liptak, Andrew Murfett, Hugo Lowell, David Smith, Mark Halperin, Rohan Goswami, Anna Nicolaou, Nick Massella, Simon Ostrovsky, Alissa Pavia, Joshua Pollack, Jessica Sibley, Catherine Valentine, Liza Pluto, Olivia Petersen, Caitriona Perry and Lulu Garcia-Navarro. TRANSITIONS — Leslie Sanchez is joining Castelion as VP of marketing and comms. She previously worked for the Jamestown-Yorktown Foundation Member Board of Trustees and is a CBS alum. … Maury Riggan is joining WilmerHale as a partner in its cybersecurity and privacy practice. She previously worked for Kamala Harris’ campaign. … Chris Gullott is now director of government affairs at D-Wave Quantum. He most recently worked at Schenetoga Ventures LLC. … … Caren Auchman is now VP of comms for Arctic Wolf. She most recently worked at Palo Alto Networks, leading PR for Unit 42 and Cortex. … Sarah McCammon is joining Third Way as a senior fellow. She previously spent more than a decade covering national politics at NPR. … Scott Gilmore is joining DiCello Levitt as a partner. He previously worked at Hausfeld. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: HUD Secretary Scott Turner … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Reps. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) and Brandon Gill (R-Texas) … Corry Bliss … David Beasley … Arden Farhi ... POLITICO’s Katie Ellsworth … Salesforce’s Annabel Smith … Carrie Meadows ... Amanda Alpert Loveday ... A’shanti Gholar ... Ashli Scott Palmer ... Li Zhou ... Alan Rosenblatt … Bassima Alghussein … Reuters’ Nicholas Brown ... Maia Estes … Rokk Solutions’ John Brandt … Zara Haq ... Clay Doherty ... Fae Jencks … Kathy Park … George Agurkis … Mike McKenna … Ronald Lauder … Joe Burns of Holtzman Vogel … Eric Lapidus … Alex Swoyer Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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Health plans welcome reforms to strengthen Medicare Advantage. However, a proposal for flat program funding at a time of sharply rising medical costs and high utilization of care will directly impact seniors' coverage. If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit reductions and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026. Learn more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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