| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHAT THE NATES ARE READING — Poll after poll of the 2024 presidential race has featured a similar shocking and seemingly anomalous finding under the hood: that young voters are abandoning President JOE BIDEN for DONALD TRUMP in droves. Many also show a sharp swing among the elderly toward Biden. Split Ticket’s Lakshya Jain and Giacomo Squatriti dug into the mystery — and conducted a polling experiment — with fascinating results: “Chaos In The Crosstabs” ANOTHER HEAD-SCRATCHER — “A tax mystery: Why are fewer people getting refunds?” by Brian Faler: “The share of taxpayers who get money back at tax time is slowly and, a little mysteriously, shrinking. … While no one is exactly sure why, some point to changes in the way people work.”
|  This is the trickiest moment of Mike Johnson’s already messy speakership. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | JOHNSON MAKES HIS MOVE — When Biden called MIKE JOHNSON last night to discuss the speaker’s complex plan for moving nearly $100 billion of foreign aid through the House, he shared serious doubts, according to a person familiar with the conversation. The president argued — as Democrats have for two months now — that it would be better for the House to take up the Senate-passed bill waiting in its hopper. If Johnson did otherwise, Biden questioned whether the Senate could process it. “If I do the same thing as the Senate bill, I know we can’t process it,” Johnson retorted, the person familiar said. “This is the only way forward.” So begins the trickiest moment of Johnson’s already messy speakership. He’s proposing the House take separate votes on Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan funding, plus other provisions such as turning some aid into loans, seizing Russian assets to help Ukraine, and even forcing a TikTok sale. Whatever passes would then be knitted together and sent over to the Senate as a single package. It’s much more convoluted than the plan Biden suggested, but it also might be the only way Johnson can navigate the toxic politics of his own conference and finally deliver U.S. aid amid the spiraling crises abroad. Still, there are a ton of unanswered questions not only about the contents of the legislation (which has yet to be released) but also about how — and whether — this can move through the House and, subsequently, the Senate. We spent last night working the phones, and the initial reaction is this: Parties ranging from conservative Ukraine skeptics to very senior Hill Democrats think Johnson’s plan might very well have legs. ON THE RIGHT: Senior Republicans who were bracing for a hard-right meltdown have been cautiously optimistic based on the response they’ve heard so far. “I’m still unclear on the total path forward, but it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be,” one senior GOP aide said. Sure, Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) is blasting the plan and threatening to take down Johnson. But some Ukraine agitators have held their fire: House Freedom Caucus Chair BOB GOOD (R-Va.) didn’t jump down Johnson’s throat at yesterday’s closed-door leadership meeting, we’re told, and last night’s GOP conference meeting wasn’t especially tense, either. The immediate question for Johnson is procedural: Setting up the intricate voting scheme he has in mind requires passing a rule, and that has been a problem lately, to say the least. Can he get this plan through the House Rules Committee and across the floor without Democratic help? Probably not, and there are signs that the anger on the right hasn’t fully set in yet. Case in point: After initially suggesting he was satisfied with the split-the-votes plan, Freedom Caucus Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) later blasted the idea of combining them before sending them to the Senate. Other influential voices on the right piled on late into the night. So watch this space. ON THE LEFT: Publicly, Democratic leaders who have spent weeks urging Johnson to simply pass the Senate-passed aid bill are treading carefully, with both HAKEEM JEFFRIES and CHUCK SCHUMER declining to weigh in until more details are released. But behind the scenes, the initial reads are positive — that it’s “basically the Senate bill broken into pieces,” as one senior Democratic aide told us last night. If everything Johnson’s camp has shared across the aisle pans out in the text, we’re told, enough Democrats will be inclined to not only vote for passage, but also pitch in on adopting the rule. “It’s not anybody’s preferred path — it’s much more complicated than it needs to be. But everyone’s willing to play ball here,” a second Democratic aide said, adding, “We may not have another chance.” Note that this package won’t have conditions on aid for Israel — something that has grown more popular with Democrats since the Senate package passed two months ago. But there’s an understanding that will be the price of finally securing Ukraine funding, the aides said.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: Essential pro-growth tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act. It’s time to strengthen America’s global competitiveness. Pass the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. Learn more. | | | THE FLASHPOINTS: Optimism aside, there are plenty of land mines ahead … — Amendment wild cards: To manage his right flank, Johnson has offered to open the bills up for at least some amendments, infusing an element of uncertainty into the entire process. It appears unlikely that border-related amendments will be germane, but expect conservatives to offer proposals to offset the spending that could repel Democrats if adopted. Even some senior Republicans fear that an amendment free-for-all could sink the bill. But one Republican aide said a cross-party effort to protect the package from toxic add-ons could prevail. — Border complications: Johnson, we’re told, is considering an unorthodox idea that Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) floated in yesterday’s conference meeting: somehow requiring the Senate to take an up-or-down vote on the House GOP’s preferred border bill, H.R. 2, before transmitting the foreign aid package. It’s unclear if it’s even possible, but Johnson’s rank and file seems to like the idea. How it will sit with Schumer, who is trying to protect several red-state Democratic incumbents this fall, is another matter entirely. — Aid for Gaza: There was confusion last night about whether the House package will include the $10 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other troubled hot spots included in the Senate bill, which was essential for its passage in February. It notably was not included in one set of bullet points circulated yesterday. Senior Democrats, however, believe that those funds will in fact be included based on their conversations with House GOP counterparts. If they aren’t, we could be back at square one. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. CASH DASH — Here’s a big takeaway from last night’s Q1 FEC deadline: Trump’s money machine is kicking into gear, with the RNC raking in millions from a new joint fundraising arrangement, our colleagues Jessica Piper and Alex Isenstadt report, while “Trump’s own joint fundraising committee separately reported raising $65 million, a total nearly double its 2023 pace that will nonetheless still leave him well behind Biden in the money race.” The details: “Over the first three months of the year, Trump’s Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, which has been the primary fundraising vehicle for his presidential bid, reported transferring $33.8 million to his campaign, including $14.7 million in March that had not been previously reported.” Reeling in the big fish: The RNC-affiliated Trump 47 Committee’s fundraising “was driven by large donors, many of whom … had not given to the RNC yet this cycle. Eighteen donors gave at least $800,000 to the joint committee, accounting for 62 percent of its fundraising.” Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign “ramped up spending aggressively in March, flexing his cash advantage over Trump with massive media buys” — to the tune of $21.8 million on airtime and production — Jessica Piper and Zach Montellaro report. “His campaign still managed to add to its cash total, however, thanks to $43.8 million in new contributions, more than half of which came to the campaign through joint fundraising committees. He ended the month with $85 million cash on hand.”
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK and HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 10 a.m. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will testify before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee at 10 a.m. Postmaster General LOUIS DeJOY will testify before the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. The House will meet at 10 a.m. BILL BARR will testify before the China select committee at 8 a.m. AG MERRICK GARLAND and VA Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 10 a.m. DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS will testify before the Homeland Security Committee at 10 a.m. USTR KATHERINE TAI will testify before the Ways and Means Committee at 10 a.m. 3 things to watch …
- The Mayorkas impeachment articles will finally arrive in the Senate this afternoon, and the biggest question isn’t what happens to them — they’ll be dismissed, quickly — it’s what some GOP senators might do next. Some hard-liners are suggesting they might gum up the chamber’s works by denying routine unanimous consent requests if that happens. “The Senate can’t expect business as usual when the Democrats are about to nuke … the Senate’s constitutional duty to conduct impeachment trials,” Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) said yesterday.
- Speaking of Senate threats, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) — as expected — has demands related to the reauthorization of expiring federal spy powers. Per Burgess Everett, without debate on the House-passed bill and the opportunity for amendment votes (including one on a controversial warrant requirement), he’ll be unwilling to speed up passage ahead of the Friday deadline. And if you doubt his resolve, please recall that he did exactly that under similar circumstances nine years ago.
- House Democrats today continue playing the game of musical chairs (ahem) created when Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) stepped down as assistant leader. Rep. JOE NEGUSE’s (D-Colo.) promotion to that position vacated the chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, and now Reps. DEBBIE DINGELL (D-Mich.), VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-Texas) and LAUREN UNDERWOOD (D-Ill.) are vying at this morning’s caucus meeting to succeed him. If Escobar or Underwood win, get ready for another election: They’re DPCC co-chairs, not to be confused with the “chair of chairs.”
At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. In the afternoon, Biden will travel to Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he is scheduled to participate in two campaign events. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Scranton. Harris will participate in a campaign event in LA.
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Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is making preparations for a response to Iran's attack. | Pool photo by Abir Sultan | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Israel’s top military officer yesterday said “his country will respond to Iran’s weekend attack, but he did not elaborate on when and how as world leaders urged against retaliation,” AP’s Josef Federman reports from Jerusalem. Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has “asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide a target list, according to an official familiar with high-level discussions, who said Israel is mulling retaliation that would ‘send a message’ but not cause casualties,” as they are wary of jeopardizing global support, WaPo’s Steve Hendrix, Loveday Morris and Shira Rubin report. The view from 1600 Penn: Biden’s “ironclad” support for Israel following Iran’s weekend strike “isn’t curtailing the U.S. pressure campaign on [Netanyahu] to protect civilians in Gaza,” Alex Ward reports, citing officials in the administration. “The officials said the U.S. sees its military defense of Israel against Iran’s Saturday missile launches and drone attacks as completely separate from continuing negotiations over the Israel-Hamas war.” The view from Kyiv: “U.S. Defense of Israel’s Skies Sparks Ukrainian Envy and Ire,” by WSJ’s Isabel Coles and Daniel Michaels: “Ukrainian officials have refrained from directly criticizing U.S. policy publicly, wary of being seen as ungrateful for Washington’s support.” Back home: “Cease-fire protesters block Brooklyn and Golden Gate bridges in coast-to-coast demonstrations,” by Dustin Gardiner in San Francisco The media angle: “New York Times Ends Probe Into Leak Over Gaza Coverage Without Conclusive Finding,” by WSJ’s Alexandra Bruell 2024 WATCH KNOWING SARAH LONGWELL — The noted “Never Trumper” known for her focus groups with Trump supporters gets the N.Y. Mag profile treatment from David Freedlander. What she’s learned: “The key, she says, ironically, is not to convince them to like Joe Biden. … Instead, it is to tell them they are right to think Biden is wrong on the border or taxes or the economy but that all of that pales in comparison to the peril that another Trump term would bring.” VEEPSTAKES — “Tim Scott focuses on his pitch to Black voters amid Trump VP speculation,” by NBC’s Nnamdi Egwuonwu MORE POLITICS
|  POLITICO illustration/Photos by Getty Images, AP, Derek Tran campaign | DEMS’ CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ — The script looks perfect on the title page: Democrats' pathway to reclaiming the House runs straight through deep blue California, which is poised to back Biden by double digits. But the Hollywood happy ending isn’t so certain, Melanie Mason writes from LA. “The six fiercely competitive California districts key to flipping the chamber are a microcosm of the most pressing questions facing the party across the country — including whether their increasingly-wobbly coalition of Latino, Asian American, Black and young voters show up for them in November.” What’s worrying Dems: “In 2020, Biden triumphed over Trump in five of the districts. But Biden’s success in the state four years ago belied deeper warning signs for his party. Democrats lost three House seats that cycle, all in districts where voters also backed Biden.” More top reads:
- The DSCC is rolling out a massive fall advertising plan this morning, alongside spending by a key party super PAC and individual candidates, Burgess Everett scoops this morning. The $79 million spending blueprint “includes TV, radio and digital advertising in nine states and comes on the heels of a $239 million spending plan from the super PAC, Senate Majority.” Related read: “Senate Dems pad cash leads in key races,” by Ally Mutnick
- Rep. DAVID TRONE (D-Md.) has put himself into rarified air: After dropping another $18.5 million of his own cash into his Maryland Senate campaign to bring his total over $40 million, he is now “officially the biggest self funder of a Senate primary in American history,” surpassing Illinois’ BLAIR HULL, who spent $29.6 million in 2004, Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin notes. Compare that to the more than $3 million that GOP former Gov. LARRY HOGAN raised in his first two months in the race, per the Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker.
- Fears that artificial intelligence could undermine democracy in this year’s elections across the world continue to mount among policymakers and the general public. From phony robocalls to deepfakes, AI is evolving at a breakneck pace as billions head to the polls. But how real are the risks? The tech is changing fast, but so far the sense of threat appears to be running ahead of the actual evidence of harm, our colleague Mark Scott reports in the first of three installments on the topic.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | TRUMP CARDS
|  Donald Trump is finding his schedule circumscribed by his new criminal trial. | Pool photo by Jabin Botsford | TRIAL AND TRIBULATIONS — In court yesterday, Trump was met with a series of brushbacks from judge JUAN MERCHAN, who is overseeing the hush money trial against the former president. “Three times on Monday the former president asked Merchan to cut him loose from his hush money trial to attend to other matters — some personal, some political and some legal. Three times the judge responded with, essentially, ‘eh, we’ll see,’” Kyle Cheney writes. “It’s a jarring new reality for Trump, who has been accustomed to setting the agenda for most of his adult life — and, in the years since his presidency, has bounced between his sunny Florida resort and political rallies brimming with adoring fans. But this spring, he’ll have to spend most weekdays in a drab 15th floor county courtroom in a city with very little MAGA.” Scenes from Manhattan: “Day 1 of Trump’s trial: 9 potential jurors and a motion for contempt,” by Erica Orden, Ben Feuerherd and Kyle Cheney … “‘Just tired of these trials’: Why the MAGA crowd is so thin outside Trump’s New York trial,” by Adam Wren and Emily Ngo From the trial to the trail: “N.Y. trial’s focus on tawdry scandal could underscore Trump’s weakness with women,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Hannah Knowles Setting the pre-trial baseline: “Only 1 in 3 US adults think Trump acted illegally in New York hush money case, AP-NORC poll shows,” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS SETUP — The Supreme Court today is expected to dive in to the chaos and violence of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot for the first time “when it hears arguments in a case that could upend hundreds of convictions — and potentially undermine some pending criminal charges against” Trump, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein write in a curtain-raiser on the case. “The case turns squarely on the actions pro-Trump rioters took that day — including ransacking the Capitol and bludgeoning police officers — and whether the felony obstruction charge the Justice Department has deployed against many of them is being used appropriately. The high court’s ultimate ruling — expected by the end of June — could overturn hundreds of Jan. 6 felony convictions and hamper numerous pending prosecutions.” (Trump is facing two counts under the questioned statute.) More SCOTUS action: “Supreme Court lifts broad injunction against Idaho ban on gender-affirming care for minors,” by Josh Gerstein and Kierra Frazier CONGRESS IMPEACHMENT ICE-OUT — House Oversight Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) got the news that everyone was expecting last night: Biden will not accept Comer’s invitation to testify in the impeachment inquiry hearing against him, CNN’s Annie Grayer reports. “‘Your impeachment investigation is over,’ Special Counsel to the President RICHARD SAUBER wrote to Comer on Monday.” Comer attacked the decision but did not disclose any further investigative plans. POLICY CORNER … READY FOR IT? — “Justice Department to File Antitrust Suit Against Live Nation,” by WSJ’s Dave Michaels and Anne Steele
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Maggie Haberman and Donald Trump appeared to share a moment at his trial yesterday. Rob Schneider called “woke bullshit” on our report that one of his sets for a group of Republicans was cut short. James Comey relished the start of the Trump trial. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. insists that Trump’s team asked him to be VP. Tom Cotton suggested some light vigilantism. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Zeteo launch event hosted by Substack Politics at the International Spy Museum yesterday evening: Mehdi Hasan, Kara Swisher, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), John Hudson, Ryan Grim, Karen Attiah, Sabrina Siddiqui, Ishaan and Bhumi Tharoor, David Corn, Julian Borger, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, Jeremy Barr, Alex Thompson, Ayman Mohyeldin, Prem Thakker, Alex Jung, Brian Stelter, Amanda Katz, Catherine Valentine, Helen Tobin, Sophia Efthimiatou and Kevin Cirilli. TRANSITIONS — Matt Jansen is now press secretary for the House Judiciary Committee. He is also press secretary for Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.). … Mike Kilgarriff is joining Ballard Spahr as a partner. He previously was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis. … Brian Green is now of counsel at Klasko Immigration Law Partners. He currently is vice chair of the American Immigration Lawyers Association’s National Benefits Litigation Committee. … … Grant Faber is now a direct air capture hubs program manager at the Energy Department. He previously was founder and president of Carbon-Based Consulting LLC. … Bridget Connolly is now an account supervisor at Adfero. She previously was a comms manager at The Kennedy Forum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Josh Rothstein, a prosecutor at the Justice Department, and Kate Champagne Sklar, a PR consultant, got married Saturday at the Conrad hotel. The bride’s uncle Andy Cadiff officiated, while Bill Cassara and former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, for whom Josh had worked for earlier in his career, presented the rings to the couple. Steven Roberts also toasted them. The couple met sitting at the bar at Le Diplomate, where they also got engaged. Pic … SPOTTED: Michael Falcone, Arlette Saenz, Kevin O’Donnell, Josh Hsu, Erin McPike, Phil Elliott, Michael Marando and JoAnna Wasserman, Angelica Annino, Rachel Alben and Thomas Johnston, Susan DiMarco and Ann Fryer. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jessica Tarlov, co-host of “The Five” on Fox News, and Brian McKenna welcomed Teddy Tarlov McKenna on Thursday. She came in at 8 lbs, 4 oz and 21 inches long, and joins big sister Cleo. Pic … Watch the announcement on “The Five” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken … Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) … Ann Romney … Doug Heye … Prime Policy Group’s Scott Pastrick … Morgan Jones … NEA’s Ramona Oliver … Matt Duckworth … Sally-Shannon Birkel of the U.S. Chamber … Deborah Zabarenko … Reuters’ Andy Sullivan … Kelly Gibson of Stronger Than Communications … Spencer Brown … POLITICO’s Dan Ashwood and Blake Jones … Chris Eddowes of Atlas Crossing … Bradley Beychok … Katie Oppenheim … PhRMA’s Nick McGee ... Tori O’Neal … S&P Global’s Josh Goldstein … Virginia Coyne … CNN’s Mary Grace Lucas … Brett Coughlin … NBC’s Mosheh Gains … Frances Lanzone of Amazon … Howard Bauleke … former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker … former Reps. Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) and John Delaney (D-Md.) … former VA Secretary Anthony Principi (8-0) … DNC’s Spencer Coker … AP’s Ted Anthony … Adam Gotbaum … Alex Glass … Matt Saunders Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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Unfortunately, key tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act.
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