| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | Presented by the Financial Services Forum | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | |  President Joe Biden and Donald Trump won’t even be the formal nominees by their first debate. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | UP FOR DEBATE — In a dizzyingly fast turn of events today, President JOE BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP scheduled two general-election debates, teeing up some of the highest-profile moments of the campaign and, in the process, upending debate norms. Biden and Trump will square off June 27 at CNN’s Atlanta studios and Sept. 10 on ABC, per Steve Shepard, Sam Stein, Jonathan Lemire and Alex Isenstadt. The plan came together after Biden proposed a pair of presidential debates and a VP debate in July, to be organized outside of the traditional Commission on Presidential Debates. (That could be the death knell for another bipartisan, once-great civic institution.) CNN quickly offered, Biden and Trump accepted, the ABC shindig came together, and we’re off to the races for crucial debates — whose existence, as recent years have demonstrated, was no longer guaranteed. The June debate is extraordinarily early for a presidential campaign; Biden and Trump won’t even be the formal nominees by then. The accelerated time frame could offer an opportunity for Biden, who’s losing in the polls and eager to put Trump front and center in voters’ minds ASAP. The CNN debate also won’t have the usual live audience, which could alter the dynamic. Biden’s proposal requested that the eligible networks have hosted a GOP primary debate in 2016 and a Democratic one in 2020, which notably boxed out Fox News. WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey report that the two campaigns have been back-channeling informally in recent weeks to lay the groundwork for debates without the CPD, which has hosted them since the ’80s. Trump’s campaign today called on Biden to spring for two more debates with him in July and August. He also announced that he’s accepted a Fox News debate with Biden in October. (We’re not sure what that’s about.) Let the preparations begin: NYT’s Katie Rogers is already reporting that RON KLAIN will return to help Biden get ready. Some big outstanding questions on our minds:
- Will ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. make the debate stage? Biden’s proposed criteria certainly seem designed to box him out, despite his significant national polling strength.
- Was this planned in advance? Right after Biden’s video challenge to Trump, the CNN announcement came awfully quick. Network spokespeople aren’t specifying.
- Did Trump get out over his skis? He’s been prodding Biden to debate him for months, but we wonder if his lightning-speed agreement to Biden’s terms will exasperate some Trump allies. It might not help that, just as in 2020, Trump is setting expectations for Biden’s performance below the floor (and below reality): If Biden can “put two sentences together,” he’ll have overperformed Trump’s threshold.
- Will viewership be way lower? Debates used to be one of the biggest TV events of the year, broadcast on many TV networks, cable channels and radio networks. Tens of millions of American households don’t get CNN.
- Will Trump even have a running mate announced by June?
- Will Trump be in custody by the time of the debates?
- Which network will win the undercard debate?
- When will somebody let EUGENE DANIELS host a debate? (Imagine hearing “That was a raggedy little answer” after nearly every response.)
INFLATION NATION — The latest Consumer Price Index report out this morning was fairly meh, showing that inflation was 3.4 percent annually in April. But after some worryingly stubborn readings earlier this year, the dip from 3.5 percent in March (in line with economists’ predictions) amounted to a slight sigh of relief for policymakers. The Labor Department data showed core inflation, stripping out food and energy, falling to 3.6 percent, its lowest mark in three years. That helped ease concerns after the past three months of reports — but it’s still only a very small positive indicator, and not one likely to trigger Fed rate cuts on its own, at least until late in the year. Stock markets climbed on the news. More details from Bloomberg Housing remains the thorn in the economy’s side. Even as price increases have stopped outright for food, for example, high rents are still driving a lot of inflation, WaPo’s Heather Long notes. Car insurance prices are also super high, and gas prices are ticking back up. Reality check for Democrats: “Think corporate greed is the leading cause of inflation? Think again,” by CNN’s Matt Egan Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com. CHAOS ABROAD — Slovakian PM ROBERT FICO was shot in the head and chest today and is now in “life-threatening” condition. More from WaPo … Iran tried to smuggle arms into Jordan to orchestrate acts of sabotage to destabilize the country, but Jordan foiled the scheme in March, Reuters’ Samia Nakhoul and Suleiman Al-Khalidi scooped today. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: PLAYING CATCH-UP — Days after the release of a new book that put a critical spotlight on his lobbying work, JIM COURTOVICH has filed a series of long-delayed federal disclosure reports on his foreign advocacy activities, Daniel Lippman reports. He stopped filing the mandatory reports under the Foreign Agents Registration Act in 2022 while continuing to work to advance the interests of Qatar in the years since, Brody and Luke Mullins reported last week in a POLITICO Magazine excerpt of their new book, “The Wolves of K Street: The Secret History of How Big Money Took Over Big Government” ($34.99). Courtovich, for instance, touted his involvement in arranging a pre-White House Correspondents’ Dinner party co-sponsored by the Qatari Embassy last year, writing in an Instagram post that he was “happy to have helped it come together.” At the same event this year, the Mullinses reported, “Courtovich was greeting guests at the entrance.” Three days after the story, Courtovich and his firm S.G.R. LLC Government Relations and Lobbying filed a “supplemental statement” detailing their work for Qatar for the six months ending March 31, 2023, for which they were paid $255,000, and on Sunday, the firm filed a similar report for the six months ending last Sept. 30. In late February, S.G.R. filed one report for the six months ending Sept. 30, 2022, and Courtovich said a report for the six months ending this past March 31 is in the process of being filed. “We had a technical glitch,” Courtovich said in a statement. “We have been working with FARA for the last few months to fix it, and we’ve submitted everything. All this took place well before this book appeared.”
| | A message from the Financial Services Forum: Basel III Endgame would have far-reaching impacts throughout the economy. As currently proposed, the restrictive capital requirements would make it harder to get loans, increasing the out-of-pocket cost of buying a house or car. See the research. | | | | | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  New intelligence from the NSA shows that China and Iran crafted deepfakes in 2020. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images | 1. NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS: In the waning days of the 2020 election, China and Iran both crafted — but chose not to deploy — artificial intelligence-generated audio and video deepfakes aimed at influencing the campaign, CNN’s Zachary Cohen, Sean Lyngaas and Evan Perez scooped. Though they weren’t used, intelligence about the deepfakes has alarmed U.S. officials. “At the time, some US officials who reviewed the intelligence were unimpressed” — but the technology has advanced rapidly over the past four years. One adversary isn’t holding back: Russian disinformation videos have started to swirl again, largely aiming to foment anger about Biden among conservatives with false claims, NYT’s Julian Barnes and Steven Lee Myers report. These are “one of the most immediate threats” to the election, U.S. officials say, and they include lies that Ukraine is trying to influence the election. Videos are the main conduit these days. 2. DEMOCRACY WATCH: “Trump alumni raising millions for legal defenses while scouting for White House hires,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “The Courage Under Fire Legal Defense Fund, [which is supporting the criminal defense of JOHN EASTMAN, JEFFREY CLARK and more], is a project of a nonprofit known as Personnel Policy Operations, or PPO. The group is vetting and recommending staff for a potential second Trump administration … The fund has spent about $3.2 million with major support from TIM DUNN, a Texas oil billionaire … The name PPO is a play on the White House Personnel Office where PPO’s president, TROUP HEMENWAY, worked under Trump.” 3. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The U.S. is sending a delegation to next week’s inauguration of LAI CHING-TE as Taiwan’s next president, per Bloomberg’s Michelle Jamrisko. BRIAN DEESE and RICHARD ARMITAGE will be among the group. Though the Biden administration is taking pains to portray the delegation as in keeping with previous U.S. efforts, it could also be an irritant in the relationship with China: Lai’s victory was seen as a voters’ rebuke of forces friendlier to Beijing. 4. THE KNOW-NOTHING ELECTORATE: “17% of Voters Blame Biden for the End of Roe,” by NYT’s Claire Cain Miller, Ruth Igielnik and Margot Sanger-Katz: “Nearly one in five voters in battleground states says that President Biden is responsible for ending the constitutional right to abortion, a new poll found … Trump supporters and voters with less education were most likely to attribute responsibility for abortion bans to Mr. Biden, but the misperception existed across demographic groups.” The abortion landscape: “More than half of Black women ages 15-49 live with little to no abortion access,” by NBC’s Char Adams
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: A huge factor in the relatively lower number of border crossings this year is a much more aggressive approach from Mexico. The number of migrants being stopped in Mexico has tripled in the past year, from 100,000 a month in early 2023 to 280,000 this March, NBC’s Julia Ainsley and Chloe Atkins scooped. Mexico is now interdicting more migrants than the U.S. is. The Biden administration is touting this as an important diplomatic accomplishment to help tame the chaos at the border. On the flip side, it also shows how much U.S. success depends on Mexico maintaining the pace, as the root drivers of migration haven’t ebbed. To that end, a new U.N. report today finds that the number of children making the perilous trek through the Darién Gap to enter Central America has actually jumped 40% this year, per Bloomberg’s Fabiola Zerpa. In another new step, the U.S. today is sanctioning hundreds of Nicaraguan officials whom it blames for boosting the migration surge, in an effort to tamp down numbers, Bloomberg’s Jordan Fabian reports. 6. PEACOCKING: “How MSNBC’s Leftward Tilt Delivers Ratings, and Complications,” by NYT’s Jim Rutenberg and Michael Grynbaum: “Time slots on the cable network once devoted to news programming are now occupied by Trump-bashing opinion hosts. The channel has become a landing spot for high-profile alumni of President Biden’s administration … The moves have been a hit with viewers. … But MSNBC’s success has had unintended consequences for its parent company … NBC’s traditional political journalists have cycled between rancor and resignation that the cable network’s partisanship … will color perceptions of their straight news reporting.” 7. MEGATREND: In an unusual bit of good news, overdose deaths fell slightly in the U.S. last year for the first time since 2018, per WSJ’s Jon Kamp. The opioid crisis and other drug addictions are still taking a massive toll — 107,500 lives in 2023. But that was down 3%, thanks in part to fewer synthetic fentanyl and heroin deaths. Overdoses are generally falling more in the eastern part of the country but rising in western states. But to get a sense of how bad the problem has gotten in recent years, clock this stunning statistic: “Last year’s tally is roughly double the entire overdose fatality count from as recently as 2015.” 8. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: “In closely watched NJ House contest, Republican targets progressive challenger on Israel-Hamas war,” by Matt Friedman: “The Middle East is dominating the early part of the 7th District contest between Rep. TOM KEAN JR. and SUE ALTMAN.” 9. HOW FAR WE HAVEN’T COME: As the U.S. marks the 70th anniversary of Brown v. Board of Education, AP’s Annie Ma reports on the sobering reality that American schools have fallen short of the dream of racial integration. Even in a much more diverse populace, 40 percent of Black and Hispanic kids have hardly any white classmates, and “for decades, American schools have been re-segregating.” That’s in part due to broad socioeconomic disparities and geographic segregation. And many students of color who live in poorer areas and have worse-funded schools also end up with worse educational outcomes.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Frank McCourt is launching an effort to buy TikTok. Mike Johnson is transferring $4.5 million to the NRCC. Cassidy Hutchinson is being asked for more documents by the House GOP. Scott Morrison hung out with Donald Trump. Greg Casar and Kyrsten Sinema were the fastest members of Congress today. Markie Martin welcomed a new baby girl. OUT AND ABOUT — Rachel Pearson’s nonprofit Engage presented its 2024 Engage Woman Awards at the National Museum of Women in the Arts yesterday evening, honoring award winners Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Katie Rudis Hadji. Jane Lauder will also be honored at a summit today at the Spy Museum. SPOTTED last night: Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Bonnie Barczykowski, Nancy LeaMond, Kristen Lund, Sadie Kliner, Jill Kozeny, Kristi Rogers, Kimball Stroud, Gail MacKinnon, Jane Adams and Shelley Waters Boots. — Crosscut Strategies celebrated its 10th anniversary at a rooftop party in Dupont Circle. SPOTTED: Ken Baer, Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Courtney Lamie, Rachel Katz, Farzad Mostashari, Chris Massey, Eric Braverman, Barry Klein, Dan Magder and Mark Fleming. TRANSITION — Eliana Locke is now regional press program director for the Biden campaign in Wisconsin. She previously was comms director for Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), and is a Priorities USA alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — James Cody, deputy director of advance and protocol at the Commerce Department, and Eisha Misra, chief strategist at Publitics, got married Saturday in Philadelphia. They met while working on the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016. Pic BONUS BIRTHDAY: DOJ’s Burden Walker (4-0) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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