| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | IT’S OFFICIAL — “Kamala Harris is now Democratic presidential nominee, will face off against Donald Trump this fall,” by AP’s Seung Min Kim: “[KAMALA] HARRIS’ nomination became official after a five-day round of online balloting by Democratic National Convention delegates ended Monday night, with the party saying in a statement released just before midnight that 99% of delegates casting ballots had done so for Harris.” OFF TO THE RACES — “A Race at Warp Speed: For Harris, There Are Advantages in a Late Start,” by NYT’s Adam Nagourney
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Most Democrats we pinged last night said they believed the chances of VP Kamala Harris picking Tim Walz were higher than the chances of her picking Josh Shapiro. | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images | THE VEEP PRIMARY — Harris’ running mate is … … going to be announced today. Most Democrats we pinged last night said they believed the chances of Harris picking Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ are higher than the chances of her picking Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO — a reversal of the expectations from just a few days ago. Our focus group of two dozen Democrats included U.S. senators, House lawmakers spanning the ideological spectrum of the party, senior JOE BIDEN administration officials inside and outside the White House, Harris campaign aides (they are as in the dark as everyone else) and plugged-in strategists. All but two of these 24 Democrats thought it would be Walz. Some of the Shapiro fans went as far as to start spinning reasons why Shapiro might not want the job anyway. It is a notable 11th-hour shift in expectations towards Walz. Of course, the Democratic conversation may not mirror what’s going on in Harris’s inner circle, and it could be exaggerated. “We could all be in our bubble,” said a House Democrat who was also hearing the Walz buzz. Ill-informed speculation or not, Walzmentum is what Democrats are obsessed with on the eve of Harris’s announcement. WHAT’S BEHIND THE CHANGE? “Lots believe it’s Walz based on the progressive campaign to end Shapiro,” said one House lawmaker echoing a common explanation we heard. The theory here is that the pressure from pro-Palestinian groups and labor bloodied up Shapiro enough to give Harris pause, making Walz what a senior administration official argued would be the “path of least resistance.” “I can see them looking at the explosion of enthusiasm from young people and being spooked out of nominating him if it risks bringing Gaza back into the conversation,” said a Democratic strategist who knows the Harris team well. Whatever Harris decides, the veepstakes ended up resembling a familiar intra-party ideological fight. “We didn’t have a primary, so the VP became a primary,” said the senior administration official. “The left went after Shapiro, and the left rallied around Walz.” ‘WHAT DOES HE GET HER?’ The prospect of picking Walz over Shapiro was seen by some of those we spoke to last night as a puzzling thing to do for a few reasons. — More of the Democratic establishment is behind Shapiro, including many current White House aides. — More of the strategist class is behind Shapiro — or at least it’s more obvious to them why Shapiro should be the pick. They can cite chapter and verse as to why it might be true that past running mates didn’t help carry their state but Shapiro would be different. Here’s one example we heard last night: “This is a 50-50 race. We were down for seven months, so where we are today feels like we're winning. But we are just back to even, we're not winning. And a point in Pennsylvania is worth a hundred points, because in a 50-50 race, it’s everything.” Another Democratic strategist thought the case was self-evident: “I still think this trends Shapiro unless they are looking at fundamentally different data than what we all have.” — Harris also knows Shapiro better than she knows Walz and familiarity is important to Harris, though others pointed out that Walz’s easy-going Midwestern personality might be a better fit for Harris than Shapiro’s intensity and ambition. Judging by some of the head-scratching we encountered yesterday, if Harris chooses Walz, Democratic insiders are going to want a clear explanation for why he beat out Shapiro. The question we heard more than once last night: “What does he [Walz] get her?” IS CHEMISTRY OVERRATED? We have repeatedly heard from current and former Harris aides that chemistry is the key to this decision. As the NYT notes this morning, “Ms. Harris wants to pick someone with whom she could quickly build a close and loyalty-driven relationship — something that did not happen immediately with President Biden.” This is the hope of every presidential candidate during this process, to the point that it has become a cliche. But it’s worth noting that nobody seems to have gotten this one right in the 21st century: The four previous administrations all ended with the president and vice president on bad terms. AL GORE blamed BILL CLINTON’s scandals for harming Gore’s 2000 campaign. DICK CHENEY was furious at GEORGE W. BUSH for refusing to pardon SCOOTER LIBBY. MIKE PENCE was extremely displeased with DONALD TRUMP after the president sicced an angry crowd on him, forcing him to flee the Capitol from a violent mob. BARACK OBAMA and Biden split over Obama favoring HILLARY CLINTON in 2016. That wound healed but was gashed open last month when Obama worked to convince Biden to drop his reelection. On the one hand, this history might suggest that the chemistry factor is really important. On the other hand, it might suggest it’s a fool’s errand so you might as well focus on other things. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: Supreme Court reform is an issue whose time has come. Public trust in the Supreme Court has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded, and term limits for the justices has broad bipartisan support. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. The result? A Court with more legitimacy that better reflects American values. No one should have that much power for life. Learn more about term limits. | | | WHAT TO READ WHILE YOU WAIT — Our own Meridith McGraw’s new book, “Trump In Exile” ($32), is out today and she shared some more details from her reporting, which takes you inside Mar-a-Lago as Trump’s team plotted his comeback. The book sheds new light on Trump’s unusual business ventures and his legal troubles, his conspiracies about the 2020 election, his 2022 endorsements, 2024 announcement and ultimately his lock on the Republican nomination. Meridith has been covering Trump since he left the White House and this is a must-read if you want to understand how the former president went from being a political outcast in Washington after January 6 to dominating the GOP today. One key moment in Trump’s political comeback was his team’s early — and brutal — takedown of Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS (who, we will note, is now on team Trump and recently fundraised for a pro-Trump PAC, per NYT’s Teddy Schleifer). It turns out the Trump team’s inspiration for the notorious pudding fingers advertisement had its roots in the organizing philosophy of a famous leftist: “When discussing their strategy, one Trump adviser referred to SAUL ALINSKY’s ‘Rules for Radicals,’” Meridith reports when describing a key meeting in the run-up to the creation of the anti-DeSantis spot. “Rule number five: Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. ‘There is no defense. It is almost impossible to counter attack ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage.’” POLL POSITION — In a new Siena College Research Institute poll up this morning, Harris leads DONALD TRUMP 53-39 among likely voters in New York, Bill Mahoney writes. “That 14-point lead is still relatively narrow — each of the past four Democratic presidential nominees have enjoyed advantages of 18 to 30 points in summertime Siena surveys. But it marks an improvement over [Biden], who had slimmer leads of 8 to 10 points in most of the monthly Siena polls conducted since last fall.” DNC COUNTDOWN — The Democratic National Convention is just two weeks away. Are you headed to Chicago? Join POLITICO for live, in-person conversations with the Democratic Party’s biggest newsmakers. Sign up to get notified when registration opens
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … While it’s the St. Louis-area matchup between Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and WESLEY BELL that will get most of the attention in tonight’s primaries, keep an eye on what’s happening in eastern Washington. That’s where Rep. DAN NEWHOUSE (R-Wash.) is trying to avoid becoming the ninth of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 to get drummed out of Congress. As Natalie Fertig reports from White Salmon, Newhouse is facing an uphill battle against two Trump-endorsed candidates, JERROD SESSLER and TIFFANY SMILEY, after narrowly surviving in 2022. He may need help from Democrats to advance to the top-two general election and prevail. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the afternoon. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:30 p.m. On the trail Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will be in Philadelphia for a rally with her newly announced running mate in the evening. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak to the press in Philadelphia at noon.
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE ECONOMY
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Yesterday global stock markets got slammed over worries about the health of the U.S. economy. | Richard Drew/AP | FREAKOUT FALLOUT — Yesterday global stock markets got slammed over worries about the health of the U.S. economy, ratcheting up the drama ahead of the heart of the election. “The turnaround in sentiment is stunning,” Victoria Guida writes. “Just a few weeks ago, economists and forecasters were upbeat about fading inflation and resilient growth, a combination that could give Harris a potent pitch to voters. But a weakening job market has sparked fears that the honeymoon won’t last, even as the Federal Reserve is close to declaring victory against inflation, with plans to start easing off on the economy soon.” The view from Harris world: Despite a bounce-back in market futures overnight, yesterday’s news came as an “unnerving reminder” for Dems “that public gloominess over the economy could hurt the campaign,” Megan Messerly, Adam Cancryn and Elena Schneider write. “It’s a particular issue in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada, where Democrats acknowledge that many voters are struggling under the combined weight of rising inflation and skyrocketing housing costs and are eager to find someone to blame.” The view from Trump world: “Trump wants voters to believe the economy is on the brink of catastrophe,” NYT’s Jim Tankersley writes, and has “joined a chorus of negativity that has in some ways worked: Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans believe the economy is in recession, even though economic statistics suggest it is not.” What the experts are saying: “Although there’s a chance the turbulence could lead to a self-fulfilling economic slowdown, analysts and economists say it’s too soon to panic,” WaPo’s Abha Bhattarai, Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein write. “The economy, by most measures, is still in solid shape. Americans are continuing to spend, the service sector is growing, and the stock market remains up for the year, not too far off the all-time highs it set recently.” Keep dreaming: “Why the Fed almost certainly isn’t going to do an emergency rate cut,” by CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald ALL POLITICS
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In an appearance on a livestreamer’s channel yesterday, Donald Trump was back to re-litigating his controversial appearance in Chicago. | John Bazemore/AP | THE TRUMP EFFECT — Early yesterday morning, Trump labeled the turmoil in the global financial markets the “Kamala Crash,” giving Republicans hope that he might turn his focus to an economic message. It didn’t last very long. In an appearance on a livestreamer’s channel yesterday, the former president was back to re-litigating his controversial appearance in Chicago last week in which he baselessly questioned Harris’ racial identity. “Republicans on Monday reeled from Trump’s undisciplined approach to the opening stages of his new general election matchup with Harris — following a weekend that saw him praise Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN while smearing Harris as ‘low IQ,’ and ‘dumb’ and attacking a popular swing-state GOP governor whose turnout operation he may need in November,” Adam Wren, Natalie Allison, Olivia Beavers and Lisa Kashinsky write. Quite the quote: “Democrats are racing to remake Kamala Harris from real life SELINA MEYER into the female Obama — and Donald Trump’s lack of discipline is letting them,” said a national Republican strategist who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Every day Trump swipes at shiny objects — attacking the popular governor of a swing state, questioning the race of his opponent, or battling cat lady comments by his VP — is a day he is letting Harris define herself on her own terms.” More top reads:
- Democrats are eyeing Arizona as a blueprint to build power down the ballot, Liz Crampton reports from Tucson. “Taking control of Phoenix has emerged as the top target nationwide for Democrats focused on rebuilding state power after more than a decade of GOP dominance in state capitals.”
- Speaking of Arizona: The Democratic primary in the Phoenix-based 3rd Congressional District between YASSAMIN ANSARI and RAQUEL TERÁN is headed for a recount, AP’s Gabriel Sandoval writes. With ballots-counting concluded, Ansari leads by 42 votes.
- Musk read: North Carolina AG JOSH STEIN said yesterday his office is considering taking action against the America PAC, an ELON MUSK-aligned operation, over its questionable tactics in acquiring voter data, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. Michigan opened up a formal inquiry into the PAC over the weekend.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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Surfers wait for a wave as an Israeli warship is seen off the coast of Haifa, Israel, on Aug. 1, 2024. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — A series of cascading events in the Middle East has ratcheted up tensions in the region as fears over a wider conflict continue. Attack in Iraq: “Several U.S. personnel were injured in a suspected rocket attack at a military base in Iraq, U.S. defense officials said Monday, in what has been a recent uptick in strikes on American forces by Iranian-backed militias,” AP’s Lolita Baldor writes. “The U.S. defense officials said troops at al-Asad air base were still assessing the injuries and damage, and it appeared that as many as seven military troops and civilians were injured.” The view in Israel: “Israel remains on high alert for a major retaliation promised by its adversaries after senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials were killed last week, with U.S. officials suggesting that the attack could be imminent,” WaPo’s Miriam Berger, Rachel Pannett, Annabelle Timsit and John Hudson report in Jerusalem. Related read: “Why Is Iran Expected to Attack Israel? What to Know About the Crisis,” by NYT’s Hiba Yazbek in Jerusalem More top reads:
- The top prosecutor in Venezuela yesterday announced a criminal investigation against the opposition’s presidential candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ and leader MARIA CORINA MACHADO “over their call on the armed forces to abandon their support for President NICOLÁS MADURO and to stop repressing demonstrators” as the fallout over the contested election results in the country continues, AP’s Egina Garcia Cano and Joshua Goodman report from Caracas.
JUDICIARY SQUARE ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — DOJ and several dozen state AGs won a sweeping victory against Google yesterday as a federal judge ruled that the search giant illegally monopolized the online search and advertising markets over the past decade, Josh Sisco writes. “In a 286-page ruling, U.S. District Judge AMIT MEHTA in Washington, D.C., ruled that Google locked up some 90 percent of the internet search market through a partnership with Apple to be the default search provider in its Safari web browser, alongside similar agreements with handset makers and mobile carriers such Samsung and Verizon.” “The ruling, which follows a nearly 10-week bench trial that wrapped up in November, is a major vindication for the bipartisan fight against the dominance of a handful of large tech companies — a battle that started in the Trump administration and has continued even more forcefully under Biden.” Read the ruling Related read: “After Google Antitrust Ruling, Here’s Where Other Big Tech Cases Stand,” by NYT’s Cecilia Kang and David McCabe AS THE CROW FLIES — Supreme Court Justice CLARENCE THOMAS “failed to publicly disclose additional private travel provided by the wealthy conservative donor HARLAN CROW,” Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) revealed in a letter released yesterday, NYT’s Abbie VanSickle writes. “Customs and Border Protection records revealed that the justice and his wife, VIRGINIA THOMAS, took a round trip between Hawaii and New Zealand in November 2010 on Mr. Crow’s private jet, according to the letter.” Read the letter WHAT A GAG — The Supreme Court yesterday squashed a long-shot effort out of Missouri to block the sentencing of Trump in his New York hush money case until after the November election and to lift the gag order the judge imposed in the case, Josh Gerstein writes. MARICOPA INCOMING — JENNA ELLIS, a former Trump campaign attorney, has agreed to cooperate with Arizona prosecutors who have charged 18 Trump allies for their role in efforts to subvert the 2020 election, Kyle Cheney writes. “She has previously pleaded guilty to similar state charges in Georgia and agreed to give a statement to prosecutors there.” MEDIAWATCH THE STORY OF THE STORY — Bloomberg fired one of its top reporters, JENNIFER JACOBS, and demoted an editor in the aftermath of a report that (incorrectly at the time) detailed the Russian prisoner swap before an embargo lifted on the news last Thursday, NYT’s Katie Robertson reports. Jacobs wrote in a post on X that she worked with editors to ensure she adhered to guidelines and standards. “At no time did I do anything that was knowingly inconsistent with the administration’s embargo or that would put anyone involved at risk,” Jacobs wrote. See the full statement from Jacobs … More from West Wing Playbook WILD ONE — “Ex-Police Chief Will Be Charged After Raid on Kansas Newspaper, Prosecutors Say,” by NYT’s Michael Levenson CONGRESS MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — “How the landmark climate law hobbled Joe Manchin,” by POLITICO’s E&E News’ Kelsey Brugger: “For months, the West Virginia moderate worked behind the scenes to force the White House to tailor its biggest climate ambitions to meet his demands. … But it didn’t matter: Most West Virginians still hated the [Inflation Reduction Act] anyway, even though it has benefited the state with new manufacturing and energy projects.” WHAT’S UP, CHUCK — “Chuck Schumer eyes opportunities to pass deepfake and AI bills as 2024 elections near,” by NBC’s Scott Wong and Julie Tsirkin
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is getting out of his bear trap. Lev Parnas is the subject of the first documentary out of Rachel Maddow’s production hub. Elon Musk is going after Sam Altman again. Donald Trump said Young Thug is being treated “very unfairly” and that Ye is “complicated” but has “a good heart.” Jake Chansley, aka the QAnon Shaman, is getting his helmet and spear back from the government. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kevin Lawson is now a senior policy adviser at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations’ D.C. office. He previously was senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and is a State Department alum. TRANSITIONS — Nicholas Simões Machado, Carlos Perez and Claudia Alvarado are joining the Nevada State Democratic Party. Machado will be press secretary and most recently was campaign manager for Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott’s reelection. Perez will be northern Nevada regional press secretary and previously was press secretary for the Nevada Assembly Democratic Caucus. Alvarado will be southern Nevada regional press secretary and previously was a public relations coordinator. … … Chris Meissner is joining India Index as chief product officer. He previously co-founded 202 Group. … Andrew Moore and Gary Corn have joined the Center for a New American Security as adjunct senior fellows. Moore is chief of staff to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and is a State Department alum. Corn is the director of the Technology, Law & Security Program at the American University Washington College of Law. ENGAGED — L’Allegro Smith, a government affairs policy advocate at Public Knowledge, and Kameron Melton, associate corporate counsel at Amazon, got engaged recently on the rooftop terrace of the Kennedy Center. They met as undergrads at William & Mary. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Bonnie Krenz, chief of staff for Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) (who served as a member of the bridal party) and an Obama White House alum, and Mike Schnurman, who works for Henrico County government and is a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, got married on Saturday in Richmond, Virginia. The couple met in 2021 while organizing a visit from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to celebrate the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure law. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: EPA Administrator Michael Regan … Federal Trade Commissioner Becca Kelly Slaughter … Russ Anello of the White House counsel’s office … WaPo’s Dan Diamond, Pat Reap and David Maraniss … Axios’ Neil Irwin … former VA Secretary Robert Wilkie … Malika Saada Saar … Erin Karriker … Jonathan Riskind … DOD’s Corey Jacobson … Jill Farrell of Judicial Watch … CNN’s Mike Melia … Steptoe’s Elizabeth Burks … Doug Stafford … Marta Hernandez … Tom Brandt of Sen. Jerry Moran’s (R-Kan.) office … Andrew Eisenberger … Amanda Brown Lierman … Adjoa Adofo Kyerematen … McClatchy’s Ben Wieder … Lindsay Bednar … Viktoria Seale ... Melissa Beaumont ... Klon Kitchen ... Nicole Cohen ... former Rep. Parker Griffith (D-Ala.) ... Nathan Baca of WUSA9 … The Baltimore Banner’s Julie Bykowicz … EEOC’s Stacia Smith … Democratic strategist Jeff Person … Everytown’s Morandon Henry … Anna Sekulow ... Allyson Gale … Ashley MacLeay ... Rem Rieder … North Carolina state Senate Democratic Whip Jay Chaudhuri … Patrick Reap … Krysia Lenzo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: In response to a cascade of ethics scandals laying bare a system in which Supreme Court justices wield tremendous power for decades with little accountability, President Biden has called for 18-year term limits and a binding code of ethics. These reforms have bipartisan support among a majority of Americans. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. Doing so would save the Court from itself, helping to drain the toxicity from the confirmation process and restore balance to the bench. These are conservative ideas, resting on a foundational premise of accountability: nobody should hold too much public power for too long. The result would be a Court that better reflects American values. To learn more about the constitutionality of term limits, visit the Brennan Center’s term limits resources. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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