| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, celebrating 100 days in the Playbook hot seat. (Yes, we both started the same day.) Back on Jan. 20, your author promised to create “an impartial, unmissable tip sheet that’s fun to read and brings you up to speed with everything you need to know.” So — promises made, promises kept? Let me know how I’m doing. In today’s Playbook: — It’s Donald Trump’s 100th day. We give you four universal truths about this presidency. — Focus is on the economy as Trump prepares to make more concessions on tariffs. — And the Trump Effect hits Canada … but it’s conservatives that get crushed. WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Triumphant Canadian PM Mark Carney has warned voters that “Trump is trying to break us” after surging back into power in a general election. In one of the most sensational political turnarounds of recent times, Carney’s Liberal Party swept back into office this morning following a snap election campaign utterly dominated by Trump’s tariffs and his broader threats toward Canada. POLITICO’s Mike Blanchfield and Mickey Djuric have the story. The Trump effect: As this stunning opinion poll chart shows, the Liberals had been trailing their Conservative opponents disastrously under the leadership of the now-departed PM Justin Trudeau. But Trump’s tariffs and bellicose rhetoric, combined with Trudeau’s decision to quit — and the ascent of the technocratic Carney — changed the picture completely in a few short months. This older Canadian voter interviewed by CNN really captures the national mood. Addressing joyous supporters in Ottawa early this morning, Carney — a former central banker — maintained his election-winning focus on Trump. And his message was one of divergence from Canada’s newly-aggressive neighbor to the south. “America wants our land, our resources, our water,” Carney said. “These are not idle threats by…. Our old relationship with the U.S., based on steadily increasing integration, is over. … We have to look out for ourselves and take care of each other.” How bad was the Conservatives’ loss? So bad that shortly before 5 a.m. this morning, with more than 98% of the vote counted, CBC News declared that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — a man who looked all but certain to be Canada’s next prime minister just a few months ago — lost his own bid for reelection to a Liberal challenger. GOP blame game: “The Liberals in Canada were losing big until our president kept mocking Canadians, our neighbors and close friends,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin. “He made Canadian Liberals great again.” Ouch. Read all this and more in today’s Ottawa Playbook.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump gestures as he arrives at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, on April 26, 2025, upon returning from a trip to attend the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican. | Evan Vucci/AP | KEEPIN’ IT A HUNDRED: Donald Trump heads back to the heartland this evening to trumpet the achievements — and gloss over the failings — of an extraordinary first 100 days back in office. The president is due on stage for a celebratory rally in Michigan at 6 p.m. Expect his government’s (very real) impact on border crossings to be front and center of the inevitable “100 day” achievement list, alongside the (thus far totally unproven) benefits of his tariff policy. The brutal cuts and purges meted out across the federal government, and the destruction of DEI programs and trans rights, will also feature heavily tonight. And if that’s not enough Trump: He’s also sitting down with ABC News’ Terry Moran in the Oval Office for a pre-recorded interview that goes out at 8 p.m. So how was it for you? It barely needs saying that most Americans’ take on the first 100 days of Trump 2.0 will come entirely down to their own personal politics. MAGA supporters have been thrilled by what they’ve seen. For liberals, this has been a nightmare writ large. But for those in the middle, polls suggest the jury’s largely still out. The hardline approach on immigration and some of the “anti-woke” policies have been received positively; the general chaos and burn-it-all-down approach to the economy most certainly has not. But amidst all the noise and the partisan glare, some universal truths are clear. — This presidency matters like few before it. In just three months, Trump has torn up the West’s postwar security settlement and its central economic premise. He’s reshaped the federal government and brought some of America’s most powerful institutions to heel. He’s threatening to go much further. And we still have 1,361 days to go. — The speed of change has been breathless. The Trump 2.0 project hit the ground running on Day 1 and has been utterly ruthless in pursuit of its goals. Never before has the “move fast and break things” edict been applied so successfully to American government. Much of this work will not be quickly undone. — Trump is pushing every boundary of what’s possible as a president. He has shown little interest in abiding by constitutional or legal norms. He has successfully shackled one of the three branches of government (the legislature) to his whims, and has the other (the judiciary) under constant attack. His political opponents are in disarray. So how this all ends is anyone’s guess. — But Trump’s power has limits. He has backed down — humiliatingly — in the face of the bond markets. He’s been aggressive and obstructionist with the courts but has walked the line on outright defying them. He’s been reduced to sending Vladimir Putin pleading messages on social media. And he is term-limited. Further reading: Every news site is packed this morning with a zillion different variations on the theme. POLITICO assembled a panel of expert journalists from across the world for a round table discussion on the first 100 days … The NYT has a useful blow-by-blow account of every significant moment, in diary form … The AP assesses how Trump’s campaign promises have matched the reality so far … NBC News has been keeping count of all those trips to Mar-a-Lago … And the WSJ’s editorial board offers a damning verdict: “At 100 Days, Trump 2.0 Is in Trouble.” (And yes, of course it’s the tariffs.) And so to Michigan … a state which Trump has won, and lost, and won again; indeed a state which hasn’t backed a presidential loser in more than 20 years. And Trump has picked Macomb County for his 100-day rally tonight, a choice as notable for its historical resonance as its political salience. Playbook’s own Zack Stanton is a Macomb native who has written extensively about the county, and emails in with some context for tonight’s speech. “Forty years ago, legendary pollster Stanley Greenberg pinpointed Macomb County as the epicenter of a phenomenon reshaping American politics: Working-class, socially conservative white voters who had traditionally voted Democratic felt betrayed by the party, which had given up on people like ‘us’ in favor of people like ‘them,’ and were eager to support a Republican presidential candidate who promised to make America great again. (Sound familiar?) He called them the ‘Reagan Democrats.’ “Ever since, American politics has largely been shaped by a hunt for these voters — both nationally, and specifically in Macomb County, which national politicos have long treated as something like the de facto national capital of white middle America. Tonight, Trump will rally supporters at Macomb Community College — the same venue where President Ronald Reagan famously declared: ‘I’m a former Democrat, and I have to say: I didn’t leave my party; my party left me.’ And he’ll do so knowing that the ‘Reagan Democrats’ of yesteryear are now firmly Trump Republicans; places like Macomb aren’t tossups in the way they once were. “Two statewide angles to watch: Michigan political pros will be keenly watching a pair of storylines that pertain to two rising stars in national politics. First, will Trump use the rally to endorse Rep. John James (R-Mich.) in his recently launched gubernatorial bid? Second, will he provide Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer with some vindication after her widely-mocked Oval Office appearance, by announcing a major investment in the future of Macomb’s Selfridge Air National Guard Base — the very thing she’d visited the White House to help secure?” Looking good for Gretch: A trip to Selfridge is indeed on Trump’s schedule for this afternoon. He’ll address the Michigan National Guard there at 4:10 p.m.
| | | | A message from Planned Parenthood Federation of America: 1 in 4 people have visited a Planned Parenthood health center for expert, affordable care, including birth control, wellness visits, cancer screenings and more.
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We need you in this fight. Visit http://ImForPP.org to learn more. | | | | ECON 101 EARLY BIRDS: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will address the White House press corps this morning alongside press secretary Karoline Leavitt for another 8:30 a.m. news conference to mark the 100-day milestone. Perhaps they finally have a trade deal to announce? Maybe they want to get ahead of the curve on Trump’s weakest policy area? Or … maybe Leavitt just likes tormenting journos with these early starts. Just look at the grin on her face when she told them all. Could it be this? Bessent told CNBC yesterday that plenty of countries have made trade deal proposals, but singled out one in particular as the likeliest to develop fast. “I would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign,” he said. “So watch this space.” Or maybe it’s this? Big scoop from the WSJ’s Gavin Bade and colleagues last night, who report Trump is preparing yet more concessions on the tariff front. Ahead of his trip to the Detroit suburbs today, the Journal reports Trump is preparing to soften the impact of his 25 percent automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of the other tariffs he has imposed. “The decision will mean that automakers paying Trump’s automotive tariffs won’t also be charged for other duties, such as those on steel and aluminum,” per the Journal. But but but: None of this is playing well with the public. In a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, 59 percent of people said Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions across the country,CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy reports. Some 55 percent of Americans said Trump’s tariffs were “bad policy," while only 28 percent described them as “good.” And 75 percent of those surveyed said the tariffs will hurt the economy in the short term. These are bleak figures for any sitting president — although here’s what Trump thinks of all these polls. Indeed: “In just 100 days, Donald Trump has squandered the clear political advantage on the economy that put him into office,” POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn reports, “driving sharp declines in his approval ratings and alarming allies who say he's done little to lower prices and improve voters' financial fortunes.”
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2025 MILKEN GLOBAL CONFERENCE:
From May 4–7, California Playbook will deliver exclusive, on-the-ground coverage from the 28th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference. Get behind-the-scenes buzz, standout moments, and insights from leaders in AI, finance, health, philanthropy, geopolitics, and more. Subscribe now for your front-row seat to the conversations shaping our world. | | | | | MEANWHILE ON THE HILL MARKUP, DAY II: The budget reconciliation scramble continues in the House today with three more markup sessions getting underway, my top colleagues on POLITICO’s Inside Congress newsletter report. Armed Services, Homeland Security and Education and Workforce all get going today, and POLITICO’s Hill team is expecting sparks to fly at Armed Services as Democrats put forward amendments targeting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The big problem for the GOP, however, is figuring out where all these massive cuts will come from. “Republicans still need to iron out how to make good on their promises to do trillions of dollars in deficit reduction,” POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports, “including whether they will make changes to Medicaid or other social safety net programs. That question is sparking heartburn in various factions of the GOP, particularly among House members in front-line districts.” So let’s ask them! The GOP leadership has its usual press conference at 10 a.m. In better news, House Ways and Means lawmakers have “largely settled on a suite of tax policies to include” in the GOP package, but are awaiting other committees to act before finalizing their cuts,POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim and Meredith Lee Hill scooped. But “GOP committee chairs are still waiting on the White House — and Trump personally — to sign off on several remaining pieces as Republicans privately debate controversial changes to Medicaid.” ICYMI: The timetable for all this to conclude is, predictably, starting to slip. Senate Majority Leader John Thune yesterday threw cold water on the House GOP’s Memorial Day deadline,POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports, warning that the Senate “probably takes a bit longer than that.” Scott Bessent told reporters that July 4 is the new target date for passing the bill. The backdrop to all this is the looming debt cliff, which will create a hard deadline for the whole of Congress to meet, Thune noted. But we’re still not precisely sure when that moment will actually come. “We do not have a new X-date yet,” Bessent told reporters yesterday: “We may have a better calculation before the end of the week or next week.”
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST BUKELE’S BARGAIN: CNN got the scoop on the White House’s negotiations with El Salvador over the imprisonment of deported Venezuelan migrants. “The details of the arrangement, which have not been previously reported, reveal the Trump administration’s deal-making,” Jennifer Hansler and Priscilla Alvarez report. “El Salvador eventually agreed to accept up to 300 people in mid-March, according to an internal document. A U.S. official described 500 as a ‘notional’ figure.” It was all yellow: NBC News has an inside look at the Salvadoran prison to which Kilmar Abrego Garcia was moved: “Rather than tattooed gang members in brightly lit, crowded cells, the inmates at the Centro Industrial prison in Santa Ana wear yellow t-shirts and move more or less freely,” David Noriega reports. “The government calls these ‘trusted inmates’: They have exhibited good behavior and are in the final years of their sentences.” FBI FILES: FBI Director Kash Patel has instructed the bureau to administer polygraph tests to identify the sources of alleged leaks to news outlets, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Hannah Natanson report. Current and former officials describe a culture of intimidation where the “sense of dread is palpable” among employees. “People are trying to keep their heads down,” said one former FBI field office head. “Morale is in the toilet.” SCHOOL DAZE: As the Trump administration continues to target university policies, the Education Department alleged yesterday that the University of Pennsylvania violated Title IX by permitting transgender athletes to participate in women's athletics,The Daily Pennsylvanian’s Anvi Sehgalr reports. The university has 10 days to comply with a list of the agency’s demands. Meanwhile, in Cambridge: “The Trump administration on Monday opened two investigations into Harvard University and the Harvard Law Review over allegedly factoring race into editorial decisions at the legal publication,” POLITICO’s Bianca Quilantan reports. Related read: “Harvard, Under Pressure, Revamps D.E.I. Office,” by NYT’s Stephanie Saul. TRAIL MIX: Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-Minn.) has formally launched her campaign for U.S. Senate. … Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has filed paperwork to form a campaign committee ahead of a run for Georgia governor,the Atlantic Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. … In Texas, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is hinting at a possible second bid for Senate after two failed statewide runs,the Houston Chronicle’s Faith Bugenhagen reports. … And in Michigan, GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga told reporters he’s “leaning toward” a run for Senate,POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman reports. He’d face former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Republican primary.
| | | | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today—learn more. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Dolly Parton’s “Threads” is coming to the Kennedy Center. PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “The Obamas’ Former Summer Home Lists for $39 Million,” by WSJ’s Katherine Clarke: “The property is owned by the family of British architect Norman Foster, who routinely spends his summers there. Foster is the founder and chairman of Foster + Partners and has designed buildings like Wembley Stadium and the cylindrical London building known as the Gherkin. … Barack and Michelle Obama rented the property for three summers starting in 2009.” MEDIA MOVE — Justin Peligri is now chief of staff at NOTUS and The Allbritton Journalism Institute. He previously was senior producer and director of editorial outreach. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ondray Harris is now general counsel at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. He previously was counsel at Gordon Rees. TRANSITIONS — Rachel Dumke is now comms director for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). She previously was deputy comms director for Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.). … Tracy Bromley is now VP of partnerships for the Joseph Rainey Center for Public Policy. She previously was founder and CEO of Tracy Bromley Consulting. … Marla Kugel is joining McDermott+ as senior director. She previously was a consultant at Kugel Health Policy Consulting. … … Charlotte Law is now senior manager of media relations at the American Petroleum Institute. She previously was comms director for Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and is a Ben Cline, Rick Scott and NRSC alum. … Ryan Radulovacki is now a comms adviser for the New Jersey Democratic State Committee focused on the governor’s race. He previously was comms director for the Texas Democratic Party. … Elliot Miller is now a partner for client services at Signum Global Advisors. He previously was lead manager of member and stakeholder engagement at BritishAmerican Business. WEDDING — Elizabeth Lloyd, deputy chief of staff to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), and Tristan Walters, director of client strategy at Convergence Media, were married on April 12 at St. Andrew by the Bay in Annapolis, Maryland. A reception at the Annapolis Yacht Club followed. SPOTTED: Former Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Calif.), Sam Oh, Andrew Christianson, Justin and Jazmine Kemp, Alana Lomis, Sydney Powers, Chance and Jackie Hunley, Mason Ohnstad, Nathanael Monroe, Pam Stevens, Jen Jones, Sam and Caroline Kaardal, Liam Nahill, Anna Louise Judson, Damian Arias, Ashley Grace Novak, Kyser and Kristen Blakely, Katie Crane, Ahmed Moneib. Photo BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Izzy Verdery (25) HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) … NBC’s Hallie Jackson … Lynne Weil of Perceptual Advisors and Citrus Strategies … Vincent Evans of the Congressional Black Caucus … Peter Kiley of C-SPAN … Akin Gump’s Ed Pagano … Anne Brachman … Allison Zelman … Emily Graeter of Rep. Mike Carey’s (R-Ohio) office … Gentry Collins … Nadeam Elshami of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Quinn Bradlee … Melody Barnes … Ari Isaacman D'Angelo … Richard Goodstein … David Gaidamak ... WaPo’s Melina Mara ... Geng Ngarmboonanant … Rob Bassin … Bracewell’s Scott Segal … Cara Morris Stern … former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) … former Reps. Jim Ryun (R-Kan.), Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) … Geoff Earle of the Daily Mail … Matt Frendewey … Jasleen Vig of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Nolen Bivens … Graham Griffin … Natalie Hartman of Capitol Point Group … Holly Morris … Rick Rosen … Dan Bayens of Content Creative Media Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Sunday’s Playbook misstated the number of students who received journalism scholarships at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. It is 31. It also incorrectly listed Rep. Kat Cammack’s (R-Fla.) attendance at an event. Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled DJ Dimmy’s name.
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