| | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
President Donald Trump said he wants talks with China, but mixed signals led the markets to whipsaw a bit. | Alex Brandon/AP | TRADING PLACES: Stock markets leapt this morning on hopes that President Donald Trump would back down on tariffs and on threatening the Fed’s independence, before paring back some gains upon cautionary words from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Pedaling back: Trump and top officials are considering a huge scaling back of tariffs on China, currently the most intense front of his trade war, WSJ’s Gavin Bade, Lingling Wei, Josh Dawsey and Alex Leary scooped. Among the potential options are reducing levies to the 50 to 65 percent range and phasing in tiered tariffs based on national security considerations. China thinks Trump is folding and they’re open to talks, though not if the White House keeps issuing threats. This morning, Trump said there are “active” conversations with Beijing. Axios’ Marc Caputo and Ben Berkowitz report that Trump’s shift this week followed warnings Monday from Walmart, Target and Home Depot leaders that the tariffs might spike prices and empty shelves. But but but: One top White House official tells Axios that Trump isn’t softening — he just wants to move forward to strike a deal. Bessent today said Trump hasn’t unilaterally offered to reduce tariffs on China, and he said the U.S. isn’t yet talking to China, per CNBC’s Megan Cassella. Trump continued to emphasize he views changes to global commerce as critical to give Americans a fairer deal. Bessent also called for major reforms at the World Bank and especially the IMF, per POLITICO’s Michael Stratford. China fallout: Direct U.S.-China talks on fentanyl cooperation remain ongoing, but American negotiators think Beijing is doing and proposing too little to stop the flow of chemicals, and they hope the threat of tariffs can compel more action, Reuters’ Michael Martina reports. Across the pond: The EU today announced that it determined Apple and Meta have violated competition rules, and it demanded almost $797 million in total fines from the tech behemoths, per WaPo. The news comes as levies on Big Tech could be a sticking point in U.S.-Europe trade talks. The bloc also said today that it won’t alter its value-added tax, as the Trump administration has called for, per WSJ’s Gavin Bade. Heads up: “Top trade official at CBP forced out amid tariff turf wars,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman for Pros: “The forced resignation [of George Bogden, the executive director for the Office of Trade Relations at Customs and Border Protection,] comes less than two weeks before the Trump administration plans to end what’s known as ‘de minimis’ treatment of goods from China.” BIG RETIREMENT: Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) announced he won’t run for reelection, opening up a major vacancy in Senate leadership and Illinois politics. Though the decision was widely expected, the 80-year-old told NYT’s Carl Hulse that it wasn’t easy to walk away from fighting Trump. “There comes a point where you have to face reality that this is the time to leave for me,” Durbin said. In his video announcement, Durbin said he’s “always tried to stand up to power on behalf of the people of Illinois and our country.” The legacy: The No. 2 Senate Democrat and Judiciary Committee ranking member has served five terms. He led the push to protect Dreamers, championed anti-smoking efforts and steered hundreds of judicial confirmations/reforms. Durbin is Illinois’ longest-serving popularly elected senator and the longest-serving Senate whip for either party. More from POLITICO’s Shia Kapos The succession scramble: Democrats are fairly likely to hang onto Durbin’s seat, so the primary to replace him could get scrambled. Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Lauren Underwood, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and state Sen. Robert Peters are all potential contenders. For Senate Dem leadership, Sens. Brian Schatz (Hawaii), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and Patty Murray (Wash.) are among those seen as possible next whips, CNN’s Manu Raju reports. And the spot atop Judiciary will open up. TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: Trump slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for opposing U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian and said Zelenskyy is obstructing a peace deal: “GET IT DONE.” Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: A new survey shows Americans overwhelmingly back real estate provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. A massive 91% support preserving homeowner tax incentives like the mortgage interest deduction. 83% back the 20% tax break for small businesses and independent contractors, and 61% favor raising SALT limits. Real estate fuels 18% of U.S. GDP, with each home sale creating two jobs. Support for homeownership is a win for the economy and the middle class. Learn more. | | | | | | 6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. WHAT PRO-NATALISTS ARE READING: The latest CDC report finds that the country’s 2024 birth rate ticked up from 2023’s nadir but remained low, per CNN. The number of births increased slightly, driven by Asian and Hispanic women, to roughly 3.6 million. The shift toward having babies later in life continued, as babies born to teens and women in their early 20s hit new record lows. The U.S. fertility rate is now about 1.6 births per woman, well below the 2.1 rate that is needed to keep a population steady without immigration, which has worried demographers, per the NYT. On the flip side: “The administration is quietly putting America’s children at risk by cutting funds and manpower for investigating child abuse, enforcing child support payments, providing child care and much more,” ProPublica’s Eli Hager writes. The White House declined to respond. 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: As the Trump administration has tried to strip legal status or visas from more than 1,100 international students in the past month, many have fought back and found at least some success in courts across the country, AP’s Kate Brumback reports. But even temporary wins have left them still nervous about their futures. In one high-profile case, a Vermont community has rallied around detained Columbia student Mohsen Mahdawi, WaPo’s Joanna Slater reports from Hartland. That “is proving key to Mahdawi’s case.” The deportees: The family of Venezuelan native Nedizon Alejandro Leon Rengel couldn’t get clear answers about where he was for five weeks after his detention in Texas, until NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa informed them he’d been taken to El Salvador. His loved ones say he’s no gang member; DHS insists he’s a Tren de Aragua gang member, but won’t provide evidence. Meanwhile, the House Democrats who went to El Salvador sounded the alarm that there hasn’t been proof of life of Andry José Hernández Romero, a gay Venezuelan makeup artist, in more than a month, The Bulwark’s Adrian Carrasquillo reports. 3. WHERE THERE’S SMOKE: “‘Crazy’: Forest Service cuts ignite fear, fury over wildfire risks,” by POLITICO’s Jordan Wolman and Natalie Fertig: “Emergency hires. A new sales tax. An infusion of state money. Officials from Nevada to New Jersey to Utah and beyond are scrambling to take stock of President Donald Trump’s cuts to the U.S. Forest Service — and deciding how to respond as the summer wildfire season looms. … [W]ith that critical prevention work at risk of slowing, states and cities are weighing drastic actions to safeguard against the threat of potentially more fire-prone national lands.”
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2025 MILKEN GLOBAL CONFERENCE:
From May 4–7, California Playbook will deliver exclusive, on-the-ground coverage from the 28th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference. Get behind-the-scenes buzz, standout moments, and insights from leaders in AI, finance, health, philanthropy, geopolitics, and more. Subscribe now for your front-row seat to the conversations shaping our world. | | | | | 4. ALL IN THE FAMILY: Cory Bowman, half-brother of VP JD Vance, is launching a Republican bid for mayor of Cincinnati, AP’s Julie Carr Smyth reports. It’s a long shot in the blue city against Democratic incumbent Aftab Pureval, but the pastor says he was inspired by Vance’s inauguration and wants to make the city better. 5. SURVEY SAYS: The latest Harvard Youth Poll, its 50th edition, finds a sub-30 electorate that’s deeply pessimistic about politics, government and both major parties. Fifteen percent say the country is moving in the right direction, and there are very low approval ratings for congressional Democrats (23 percent), congressional Republicans (29 percent) and Trump (31 percent). The number for Dems, in particular, is way down from 2020. On the issues: Among eight Trump policies/ideas, from tariffs to DOGE to taking over Gaza, none polled higher than 35 percent. Support for U.S. engagement abroad, from foreign aid to promoting democracy to fighting terrorism, is relatively low. Young adults in both parties picked “individual rights and freedoms” as the value most core to American identity. Struggling with life: Forty-two percent of young Americans say they are struggling financially or have only limited financial security. Fewer than half think it’s important to have kids. Only 17 percent are deeply connected to a community. And many report still feeling the social effects of a long pandemic hangover. 6. MEDIAWATCH: “The Dispatch Buys SCOTUSblog, a Supreme Court Mainstay,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin: “[Amy] Howe and some of SCOTUSblog’s key employees are signing long-term contracts with their new [right-of-center] employer, part of an effort to keep the site’s editorial voice intact. … SCOTUSblog is being sold months after Tom Goldstein, a co-founder and Ms. Howe’s husband, was indicted on charges of tax evasion.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:  
A new national survey shows overwhelming support for pro-housing policies in TCJA. Learn More. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump said he’ll install a 100-foot flagpole on the White House’s North Lawn. Dan Scavino said one will go on the South Lawn too. Rohit Chopra, Hampton Dellinger and Andrew Bivins, all fired by Trump, will be HuffPost’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner guests. Abigail Ross Hopper of the Solar Energy Industries Association threw the first pitch at yesterday’s Nats game. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “DOGE Unleashes Wrecking Ball That Rips Into DC’s Special Status,” by Bloomberg’s Michael Sasso, Paulina Cachero, Aashna Shah, Prashant Gopal, and Augusta Saraiva: “The district is expected to lose as many as 40,000 federal jobs, the city has estimated, or 21% of its federal workforce. That has civic leaders bracing for a spending chill at local businesses, turmoil in office and housing markets and reduced tax collections that could upend city finances.” BOOK CLUB — Random House is putting out new hardcover editions of the Declaration of Independence/Constitution and Federalist Papers, with intros by historian Jon Meacham, as sales of these texts skyrocket, AP’s Hillel Italie reports. MEDIA MOVES — Chloe Arensberg has been named the next Washington bureau chief for NBC News, as Ken Strickland is elevated to SVP of NBC News editorial operations after a dozen years leading D.C. operations. Arensberg previously has been deputy bureau chief, and is a CBS alum. TRANSITIONS — Ryan Nelson will be senior executive adviser to the CEO at Sanford Health, per The Dakota Scout’s Jonathan Ellis. He previously was chief of staff to Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). … Mayer Brown has added Thea Kendler as a partner and co-head of the export controls and sanctions practice and Aiysha Hussain as a partner. Kendler previously was assistant secretary for export administration at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, and Hussain was her senior policy adviser. … Robert Schwartz is joining Morgan Lewis as a partner in its investment management practice. He previously was general counsel at the CFTC. … … WestExec Advisors has added Susannah Marshall and Sara Shah as senior associates. Marshall previously was senior policy adviser to the Commerce secretary, and Shah previously was deputy chief of staff of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. … Gaby Marks is now government relations comms manager at Bentley Systems. She previously was deputy comms director for Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.). … Muqaddesa Yourish is now a senior adviser at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. She most recently was a visiting professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook PM mistakenly identified a lawmaker who was spotted at a YouTube Kids Hoppy Hour event. It was Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.). It also misstated the statute protecting the rights of Jewish students, which the Trump administration alleges Harvard violated. It is Title VI.
| | | | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today—learn more. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment