| | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
Speaker Mike Johnson said he feels optimistic about SALT negotiations. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: House Republicans are getting closer to liftoff on their major reconciliation legislation, but significant obstacles remain when it comes to the House floor — to say nothing of changes waiting in the Senate. The markups: The Ways and Means Committee finally approved its portion of the bill on a party-line vote this morning, as POLITICO’s Brian Faler and colleagues recap. Republicans swatted away Democrats’ efforts to change the $3.8 trillion tax package, which now goes to the Budget Committee on Friday. It largely includes extended tax cuts and new or expanded breaks from the Child Tax Credit to overtime pay, along with the rollback of clean energy credits. The Energy and Commerce Committee also approved its communications title, green-lighting a spectrum authority to raise money and a ban on state-level artificial intelligence regulations, per POLITICO’s John Hendel. Up next: The House GOP Conference will have a briefing tomorrow afternoon to try to dig through any reservations about the bill, per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. Then, if all goes well, it’s on to the Rules Committee on Monday, as GOP leaders hope to tee up a floor vote next week before Memorial Day. But but but: Holdouts remain. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and four other members from high-tax states are still adamantly opposed without a further increase in the state and local tax deduction. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he’s “very optimistic” about striking a deal this week or weekend. But Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said there’s only roughly $50 billion to raise it, which may not satisfy the SALT advocates, per POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim and Meredith. On the flip side, conservative hard-liners are furious that the bill’s Medicaid work requirements wouldn’t begin for four years — and clamoring for changes, Meredith reports. Adding to the headaches: Some Republican members — and not just the hard-right flank — have varying degrees of mistrust for Johnson, saying “they don’t know if they can trust their leader’s word,” WSJ’s Olivia Beavers reports. Johnson has maintained that “I don’t make promises I can’t keep,” and many members say they trust and support him. Across the Capitol: Some Republican senators have already signaled concerns about the slashing of green energy tax credits, the closing of the Medicaid provider tax loophole, and the overall deficit impact, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) called the bill “the Titanic” at a POLITICO Live event today, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told CNN’s Manu Raju he’d vote no for the bill’s current form. Still, senators are mainly anticipating alterations, not a rejection. And Majority Leader John Thune today threw cold water on the prospect of doing something drastically different. The impact: WSJ’s Richard Rubin digs into the partisan debate over whom the tax bill benefits. Low-income people wouldn’t benefit much, but Republicans highlight that the legislation would cut taxes for the middle class, while Democrats note that most of the benefits would accrue to the wealthy. The bill would also tax immigrants’ remittances to loved ones back home, per the AP … slap higher taxes on small, wealthy colleges like Grinnell, per Bloomberg … and potentially lead to greater energy price volatility, per Heatmap. How it’s playing: New polling from Strength In Numbers/Verasight U.S. has troubling numbers for Republicans, G. Elliott Morris reports. The survey finds that voters prefer Democrats’ approach to cutting the deficit — raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations rather than cutting social services spending — by a margin of 58 percent to 14 percent. Dems also lead by 6 points on the generic ballot, and voters overall would pick Kamala Harris for president over incumbent Donald Trump by 5 points. (Limited just to people who voted in 2024, a theoretical rematch is tied at 43 percent each.) Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. POTUS ABROAD: After announcing he would lift all sanctions on Syria, Trump went further today and said the U.S. would consider normalizing relations with the country, per Bloomberg. That followed his meeting with new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The sanctions announcement fueled celebrations and optimism across Syria, where people hoped it would be a “game changer” to revitalize their economy and country, NYT’s Ben Hubbard reports from Damascus. On the ground: Trump’s main focus today was Qatar, where the multiple deals he struck with Sheikh Tamim Al Thani included one for jets — just not that jet, per POLITICO’s Megan Messerly. There’s a major deal for Qatar to buy $200 billion worth of planes from Boeing, Trump said, along with defense cooperation and other agreements, NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer and colleagues report. It’s “a dramatic turnaround for a small Persian Gulf country that Mr. Trump derided eight years ago as ‘a funder of terrorism at a very high level,’” NYT’s Michael Shear and colleagues write. 2. MEGATREND: The U.S. made stunning progress against drug overdoses last year, per new CDC data. Deaths from overdoses fell 27 percent to roughly 80,000, continuing the downward trend from the latter half of 2023, per CNN. For comparison, the largest annual decrease recorded previously was just 4 percent. Experts credit the progress to a number of different factors bearing fruit after years of work, AP’s Mike Stobbe and Geoff Mulvihill report: “Increased availability of the overdose-reversing drug naloxone. Expanded addiction treatment. Shifts in how people use drugs. The growing impact of billions of dollars in opioid lawsuit settlement money. [And the] number of at-risk Americans is shrinking.” But but but: Overdose deaths are still higher than they were before the pandemic. And some experts worry that the Trump administration’s major governmental cuts could hamper progress, per CNN. 3. WHAT MARCO RUBIO IS UP TO: The new national security adviser plans to make major alterations to the NSC, shrinking it down considerably and structuring it to be more top-down, NBC’s Olympia Sonnier and colleagues scooped. The idea is for the staff to carry out Trump’s directions more than make recommendations to him, as the council currently operates. Rubio would likely reassign rather than fire staffers, and the plans aren’t final. 4. THE FIGHT FOR WHITE SOUTH AFRICANS: “White House bans U.S. agencies from all work on G-20 in South Africa,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein and John Hudson: “The [NSC] move follows President Donald Trump’s public threats to boycott the summit over claims that White South Africans are having their land taken away by the government under a new expropriation law. … South Africa rejects the Trump administration’s accusations, saying there is no evidence of persecution … Foreign policy experts have said that if the United States pulls out of the G-20, China will have greater latitude to set the terms of the agenda.” 5. IN THE DOGE HOUSE: The Trump administration’s major foreign aid and federal agency cuts, along with its retreat from internal institutions, is continuing to bite across the world. HIV testing in crucial population groups in South Africa, like pregnant women and young people, is down 21 percent, Reuters’ Nellie Peyton scooped. Advocates warn that could presage higher transmission and more disease. The WHO said it will have to reduce its work due to U.S. cuts, per Reuters. And cuts at the FDA, long the gold standard for drug testing/regulation/approvals, are leading some startups to eye conducting their trials abroad, Reuters’ Maggie Fick reports. The savings: NOTUS’ Mark Alfred notes that the Department of Government Efficiency announced $660 million in savings in March from slashing federal buildings’ leases. By now, that’s been reduced to $262 million, despite figures touted by some Republican lawmakers. The DOGE staff: GOP consultant Chris Young is working for DOGE to help take apart the CFPB, while also making between $100,001 and $1 million a year as an adviser at an Elon Musk company, ProPublica’s Jake Pearson reports. Ethics experts say that “likely violates federal conflict-of-interest regulations.” He didn’t respond for comment. 6. THE NEW OFFICE OF REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT: “An agency tasked with protecting immigrant children is becoming an enforcement arm, current and former staffers say,” by Lomi Kriel and Mica Rosenberg in The Texas Tribune and ProPublica: “[O]ne of the clearest indications of that shift is the scale of the checks that immigration agents are conducting using information provided by the resettlement agency to target sponsors and children for deportation. Trump officials maintain that the administration is ensuring children are not abused or trafficked. But current and former agency employees, immigration lawyers and child advocates say the resettlement agency is drifting from its humanitarian mandate.” 7. IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED: Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) have reintroduced the Kids Online Safety Act, The Verge’s Lauren Feiner reports. The legislation, which would force tech platforms to take major steps to protect children’s health and wellness, soared through the Senate last year before dying in the House. This time, changes to the bill have gotten Apple on board. Now all eyes will be on House GOP leaders. 8. DEPORTATION DIGEST: “Noem’s claim that Afghan refugees can safely return to their Taliban-ruled homeland is ‘just absurd,’ advocates say,” by NBC’s Dan De Luce: “Lawmakers and rights groups said the Trump administration’s decision would put thousands of Afghans’ lives at risk and betray partners who had risked their lives to work for the U.S. military.”
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Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “National Airport, Pentagon hotline had been disconnected for three years,” by WaPo’s Ian Duncan: “The line is maintained by the Defense Department, and the aviation agency was not aware of the outage, Franklin McIntosh, the deputy head of air traffic control, testified at a Senate hearing Wednesday. Aviation officials learned of the issue after controllers at National, in Arlington, Virginia, had to order two flights to abandon landing attempts this month due to an Army helicopter heading to the Pentagon.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the first D.C. fundraiser for Maine Democratic Senate candidate Jordan Wood on a Navy Yard rooftop last night: Jake Lipsett, Andrew Orlebeke, Yasmin Radjy, Brian Lemek, Jose Morales, Evan Brown, Jim Doyle and Patti Solis Doyle, Brett Dewitt, Jody Murphy, Joe Radosevich, Ethan Smith, Tim Mulvey, Adam Bozzi and Haley Scott. — SPOTTED at the International Code Council’s annual Building Safety Month reception yesterday evening: George Guszcza, Dan Kaniewski, Josh Batkin, Seth Statler, Aaron Davis, Michaela Campbell, Matt Lyttle, Steven Alonzo, Jeff Choudhry and Don Kent. TRANSITIONS — Shawnda Turner is now regional finance director for the NRSC. She previously was senior fundraising associate at Fundraising Inc. … Jason Esteves’ Georgia gubernatorial campaign is adding Meg Scribner as campaign manager and Liz Post as finance director. Scribner previously was campaign manager for Jen Jordan’s AG campaign in Georgia. Post previously was finance director for Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-Ga.) campaign. BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Katie Brown of Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) office … Phoebe Ferraiolo of the Senate Appropriations GOP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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