| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, praying for a miracle for the Caps tonight. There’s still a few tickets if you’re at a loose end. START YOUR MORNING … with a supremely well-timed POLITICO security summit, which kicks off at Capital Turnaround in Navy Yard at 8 a.m. Join myself and Playbook’s very own Dasha Burns, plus star POLITICO journos including Jonathan Martin and Rachael Bade, for some of the biggest newsmaking interviews of the day. We got Donald Trump’s counter-terror czar Seb Gorka; his former national security adviser John Bolton; Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan; Senate Armed Forces Committee member Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.); House Intelligence Chair Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), and many more. Here’s the link. In today’s Playbook … — Trump signals he could still travel to Turkey if Russia-Ukraine talks progress. — A blockbuster at the Supreme Court as Trump’s birthright citizenship case is heard. — The GOP inches closer to a budget deal, with more crunch meetings today.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump gestures during a business roundtable May 15, 2025, in Doha, Qatar. | Alex Brandon/AP | TURKEY ON THE TABLE: Donald Trump has said he’s prepared to fly to Turkey tomorrow for Russia-Ukraine peace talks as the first direct negotiations since 2022 get underway — but with a big caveat. Speaking shortly after 3 a.m. on the third day of his Middle Eastern tour, the U.S. president said he was willing to travel to Istanbul on Friday “if it was appropriate” and “something happened” between the two sides. Trump also expressed optimism that his four-month push for peace is delivering results. “We think we're going to do well with Russia-Ukraine,” he said. This is a very big deal for Trump. The president may be 1,800 miles away in Qatar, but it’s his reputation on the line. We’ve all seen the faith he’s put into his relationship with Putin. We all heard the campaign pledges — more than 50 of them — about ending this war on Day 1. The problem: Trump’s optimistic tone stands in stark contrast to that of most observers. Today’s planned summit in Istanbul will be the first face-to-face talks between Ukraine and Russia since the early days of war — but hopes for a breakthrough are rock-bottom after Vladimir Putin chose not to attend. The Russian leader dispatched only a junior aide to lead his negotiating team, an indication that concessions are not on the cards. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is headed to Turkey as promised, but aides have suggested he’ll only get involved in talks with Putin there too. A further caveat: It’s still not 100 percent clear whether today’s talks will happen at all, per the WSJ’s Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov. He cites both Ukrainian and Turkish officials as stating there are still no talks agreed to at this stage. And officially, Zelenskyy is headed only to Ankara — 300 miles from Istanbul — for a separate summit with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. But the situation is fluid, and things could move fast. Also in Ankara: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who’s attending a meeting of NATO foreign ministers today and will head to Istanbul later on. Arriving into Turkey this morning, Rubio said Trump is “open to virtually any mechanism” to end the war and that the U.S. will help “in whatever way we can.” It’s all a little vague. Putin the pressure on: In the meantime Zelenskyy and his European allies will likely seize on Putin’s no-show as further evidence the Russian leader is unserious about negotiating peace, given he also ignored pleas for a ceasefire this week. But the only question that matters … is whether Trump himself agrees. He seemed nonchalant onboard Air Force One when asked about the prospect of a Putin no-show, but said he’d be taking a view “in the next few days” about the Russian president’s approach. Reading the runes: Signs of frustration with Putin inside Trump World have certainly been bubbling for a few weeks. VP JD Vance — who went after Zelenskyy so aggressively in the Oval Office in February — criticized Russia last week for demanding “too much” in the peace talks. And Trump has literally pleaded with Putin — “Vladimir, STOP!” — to halt the bombing, but to no avail. The president’s Truth Social posts now frequently criticize both sides, rather than just Zelenskyy. Is there a point soon where Trump gives up? Plot twist: Unexpectedly, the likelier deal now looks set to be done with Iran. Ali Shamkhani, billed as a top political and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has given an intriguing interview to NBC News which opens the door to a nuclear deal. He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and allowing international inspectors to supervise its civil nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of all economic sanctions. Speaking in Qatar this morning, Trump confirmed the deal is almost done. “You probably read today that Iran has sort of agreed to the terms,” he said. “They're not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran. And we've been strong. I want them to succeed. I want them to end up being a great country, frankly, but they can't have a nuclear weapon … And people are getting close to maybe doing a deal.” Beyond the Wit of man? Heavily involved in this — along with everything else going on overseas — is Trump’s “everything envoy” Steve Witkoff, who is the subject of a must-read Atlantic profile which published yesterday afternoon. There’s a lot of interesting detail in there about the man who — along with Musk and Vance — has emerged as one of the most interesting and consequential figures in Trump’s orbit. “We may be there with Iran,” Witkoff tells the Atlantic’s Isaac Stanley-Becker. “What looks like the most complicated [deal] could be the most likely.” Royal tour: In the meantime, Trump is pressing on with Day 3 of his Gulf state tour, and in the last few minutes was due to address U.S. troops at America’s largest Middle East military base — Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Later this morning he’ll fly on to Abu Dhabi for the final leg of the trip. Playbook’s Dasha Burns has texted in with a fun “spotted” list from last night’s state dinner hosted by the Emir of Qatar. Among those dining with the president and the Qatari royals were a fine assortment of (mostly) U.S. billionaires including Elon Musk, Antonio Gracias, Brad Gerstner, Howard Marks, David Solomon, Josh Harris, Omeed Malik, David Sacks, Behdad Eghbali, Stephen Schwarzman, Ana Botin, Garrett Ventry and Ronald Lauder.
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Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | COURT IN THE ACT TRUMP VS. THE COURTS: We’ve had dozens of important court hearings since Trump returned to power — but today we get a genuine blockbuster. From 10 a.m. the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the most significant case of the year so far — but as POLITICO’s legal ace Josh Gerstein writes this morning, “it’s not clear what exactly the court will be deciding.” There’s definitely a constitutional question: Does birthright citizenship apply to children who are born in the U.S. but whose parents are undocumented immigrants or here on temporary visas? The Trump administration says no. A wide array of legal scholars disagree with that stance. “It was thought to be a wacky idea that only political philosophers would buy,” John Yoo tells the NYT. “They’ve finally got a president who agrees. … It’s like it almost just jumped from law review articles to the White House.” But there’s also a procedural question: Should lower-court judges have the authority to block federal policies with nationwide injunctions? Again, the Trump administration says no. “There are ‘more than 1,000 active and senior district court judges, sitting across 94 judicial districts,’” the administration wrote in a filing with SCOTUS. “[T]he Executive Branch cannot properly perform its functions if any judge anywhere can enjoin every presidential action everywhere." The procedural question — limiting the power of the judiciary — is at the heart of the administration’s ambitions. “Nationwide injunctions have halted or significantly curbed a slew of Trump’s initiatives — including other immigration-related policies as well as his cuts to the federal workforce and his attempts to ban diversity, equity and inclusion programs,” Josh writes. “The president and his aides have grown increasingly exercised about such injunctions early in his second term.” Which means … the implications extend far beyond immigration policy. Depending on how the high court rules, one of the main impediments towards the White House implementing its policy agenda could be severely hamstrung. Buckle up. What is the court likely to do? We’ll have a better sense of that once oral arguments begin. But, as AP’s Mark Sherman writes, at least “two justices, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, have said they believe individual judges lack the power to issue nationwide injunctions.”
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: President Trump understands what consumers want – including flavored vapes.
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Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | First in Playbook — This isn’t a simple liberal-vs.-conservative divide. “Partisan politics aside, the legal question about injunctions is a legitimately tricky one — even among experts with similar political outlooks,” POLITICO’s Ankush Khardori writes in his column this morning. He speaks with two liberal legal scholars who are split on the nationwide injunction issue.
| | | | Did you know Playbook goes beyond the newsletter—with powerhouse new co-hosts at the mic? Tune in to The Playbook Podcast every weekday for exclusive intel and sharp analysis on Trump’s Washington, straight from Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns. Start listening now. | | | | | MEANWHILE, ON THE HILL RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Today at 2:30 p.m., House Republicans will meet in private to discuss the GOP mega-bill that House Speaker Mike Johnson is scrambling to shore up the votes to pass before the House leaves for Memorial Day recess in one week’s time. Meet the factions: This morning’s edition of POLITICO’s Inside Congress newsletter (sign up to subscribe for free) has an indispensable guide to the House GOP’s four main factions giving Johnson agita right now: the SALT-ies, the hard-liners, the clean energy moderates and the Medicaid moderates. Today, the action on the Hill centers between those first two groups. At 10 a.m., SALT-ies are scheduled to meet privately with Johnson, a clutch of other lawmakers as well as members of the House Freedom Caucus — a group whose membership largely falls into the competing hard-liner faction. Why the SALT-ies are upset: “New Jersey, California and New York Republicans continue to hold out for a better deal on an increase to the $10,000 state and local tax deduction cap,” POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim and Meredith Lee Hill report. “Tax legislation that passed the Ways and Means Committee early Wednesday morning includes a $30,000 cap with a new income limit on the deduction, but so-called SALT Republicans are unsatisfied with the proposal.” Representative quote: “The window is closing” for a deal, said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) SALT-ie on the Ways and Means committee. What the hard-liners are upset: The latest bee in conservatives’ bonnet comes from the “perks now, pain later” approach of the bill, as POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes writes this morning. (For instance: Work requirements for Medicaid made it into the bill… but their implementation was delayed for several years, as POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports.) The House bill is “unquestionably the most drastic display of instant gratification on the incumbent president’s watch before the pain sets in when his successor is inaugurated,” Jennifer writes. “And the glaring ploy is spurring Republican threats of opposition on both sides of the Capitol.” Representative quote: “Significant changes [are needed] or it ain’t going anywhere. It’s laughable that you don’t have Medicaid requirements until ‘29,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said this week. “They’re trying to say ‘Oh we did the math.’ No you didn’t. It’s phony math.” BOOK ’EM: For the past four months, as Trump has run roughshod over Congress’ prerogatives, GOP leaders have mostly stood aside. Then he started meddling with the Library of Congress, and “quiet but firm resistance from Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune” has at least temporarily curtailed the White House’s attempt to seize control, POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus reports.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association:  
| | | | BEST OF THE REST DEMS IN DISARRAY: There is a growing chorus of concern emerging from the left, as Democrats grapple with the fallout of new revelations regarding former President Joe Biden’s mental and physical decline. On Capitol Hill: Democratic lawmakers are putting on a brave face as they face a series of glaring headlines surrounding “Original Sin” ($27), the buzzy new book from Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu, Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker report. In a series of interviews, many “talked about ‘looking forward’ — to combating President Donald Trump, to retaking control of Congress — in a sign of how awkward and potentially damaging the recriminations about Biden have become.” But some are welcoming the conversation: “Joe Biden clearly just was not capable of delivering the message we needed to deliver in 2024,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said. “Why did it take so long? Why was it so hard to recognize that and make the change? So I guess to some degree it is helpful to have that conversation.” Survey says: A new AP-NORC center poll shows that only one-third of Democratic voters are “very optimistic” or even “somewhat optimistic” about the future of the party, AP’s Steve Peoples and Linley Sanders report. On the flip side, “about half of Republicans, 55%, are very or somewhat optimistic about their party’s future, up from 47% last summer. Still, only about 3 in 10 Republicans are optimistic about the state of U.S. politics, up from about 1 in 10 last summer.” TRUMP INC. UPDATE: AG Pam Bondi quietly cashed in on Trump Media stock the same day of the president’s announcement he would impose global tariffs, ProPublica’s Robert Faturechi and Brandon Roberts report. “Bondi’s disclosure forms showing her Trump Media sales say the transactions were made on April 2 but do not disclose whether they occurred before or after the market closed.” Bondi’s moves could have major legal implications, though “cases against government officials are legally challenging, and in recent years judges have largely narrowed what constitutes illegal insider trading.”
| | | | Policy moves fast—stay ahead with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant. Effortlessly search POLITICO's archive of 1M+ news articles, analysis documents, and legislative text. Track legislation, showcase your impact, and generate custom reports in seconds. Designed for POLITICO Pro subscribers, this tool helps you make faster, smarter decisions. Start exploring now. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Several lawmakers struggled with nodding off after two overnight markups in the House, NOTUS’ Emily Kennard reports. Russ Fulcher, an Idaho Republican, said “the real men look like they haven’t shaved today. The wussies, they don’t have to shave every day.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Matt Klapper will be a partner and co-chair of Jenner and Block’s congressional investigations practice and global crisis management and strategic risk practice. He previously was chief of staff and senior counselor to AG Merrick Garland and is a Cory Booker alum. TRANSITIONS — Michael Negron will be a senior fellow for economic opportunity at the Center for American Progress. He currently is a policy fellow at Groundwork Collaborative and is a Biden White House and Small Business Administration alum. … Elizabeth Whitney Rubel will be head of business development at Paradox Public Relations. She previously was senior digital media executive at Hearst Digital Media. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Cyber Threat Alliance's Threat Intelligence Practitioners' Summit yesterday: Bridget Bean, J. Michael Daniel, Kim Zetter and Richard Evanchec. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) … NYT’s Eli Saslow, Elisabeth Bumiller and Nick Confessore … Ruth Marcus … Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet … Anne Marie Malecha … Nick Papas of Airbnb … Jacqueline Cortese … Varun Krovi … James Glueck … Philo Hall … Rachel Kelly of Mastercard … Billy Brawner of Brawner Communications … Jennifer Jose … Diane Cullo … former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius … David Watts … Donna Leinwand Leger … Barry LaSala … Dan Rothschild of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute … Aaron Morrissey … POLITICO’s Rachel Loeffler … Linda Hall Daschle … Nora Kohli of Rep. Rep. Jim Himes’ (D-Conn.) office … Burden Walker … Ezra Thrush of Ridge Policy Group … Rob Simms … Jen Stout Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the state GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd represents. It is Colorado. It also misstated where Sydney Thomas Stubbs works.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: Nearly 500,000 Americans die annually from smoking cigarettes. 67% of Americans say the government should promote nicotine alternatives to help Americans quit smoking – and they're counting on President Trump to save flavored vaping.
In 2019, President Trump took action to protect flavored vapes and small businesses that make up this multibillion-dollar industry. He implemented commonsense age restrictions that allowed adult smokers to vape while pushing youth tobacco rates to an all-time low.
After four years of crushing Biden regulations and enforcement, flavored vaping must be saved again. 71% of Trump voters want Biden's illegal policy and regulations banning flavored vapes replaced. And 62% of Trump voters say small businesses should not be penalized just because their products are made in China, as Biden was doing.
President Trump, your voters are counting on you to keep your promise – save flavored vaping and save American lives.
Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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