| | | |  | | By Zack Stanton | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine Happy Saturday. This is Zack Stanton. Send your Kentucky Derby tips: Get in touch. THE TRUMP FACTOR, INTERNATIONALLY: “Anthony Albanese claimed victory as the first Australian prime minister to clinch a second consecutive three-year term in 21 years on Saturday and suggested his government had increased its majority in the next Parliament by not modeling itself on U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration,” AP’s Rod McGuirk and Tristan Lavelette report this morning. THE TRUMP FACTOR, DOMESTICALLY: “Hillbilly Dynasty? JD Vance’s Little Brother Is Running for Office,” by POLITICO’s Adam Wren
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump gives a commencement address at the University of Alabama on May 1, 2025, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP | WHAT, ME WORRY? While we’ll have to wait until tomorrow morning’s episode of “Meet the Press” to see President Trump’s full interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker, the first clips are out and caused a bit of a stir over an exchange about the economy and Trump’s tariffs. Asked whether it’s “OK, in the short term, to have a recession,” Trump shrugged. “Look, yeah, it’s everything’s OK,” he responded. “This is a transition period. I think we’re going to do fantastically.” Watch the clip from NBC News Even as Trump’s tariffs threaten the economic outlook — more on that in a moment — there are some signs for optimism among investors. Buoyed by stronger-than-expected jobs numbers and a steady unemployment, the markets rebounded strongly yesterday. The S&P 500 “has now erased all post-‘liberation day’ losses,” per MarketWatch — a trend that’s certain to relieve the Trump administration, especially coming so soon after GDP numbers showed that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1 of 2025. “If the labor market holds up and the Trump administration walks back the most egregious tariffs, the economy could skirt a deep recession,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, per WaPo’s Hannah Ziegler. But but but: Surveys of consumers and businesses are still “flashing red,” WSJ’s Jeanne Whalen and Justin Lahart write, as Trump’s “ever-changing” government cuts, tariff policies and immigration restrictions “are disrupting trade and sparking deep unease among consumers, businesses and investors.” Let’s take a moment to look at those three factors … GOVERNMENT CUTS: Trump’s budget blueprint, which was unveiled yesterday, “would slash $163 billion from non-defense, discretionary spending, a nearly 23% reduction, bringing it down to roughly $557 billion, before a nearly $44 billion infusion from Congress’ reconciliation bill,” as CNN notes. But even as the fallout from that announcement begins to mushroom, another debate about Trump’s spending policies is roiling Capitol Hill … FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Speaker Mike Johnson’s hope of advancing the long-promised GOP megabill by Memorial Day is running headlong into political reality, as Republicans struggle “to unify around some of their most consequential decisions, including how deeply to cut spending and overhaul safety-net programs,” POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill write this morning. The big picture: “President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ is nowhere near ready for prime time,” the pair write. Three big punts: “GOP leaders pushed back a trio of key votes they were hoping to finish next week. The Energy and Commerce Committee is still grappling with politically toxic proposals to roll back Medicaid spending. The tax-focused Ways and Means Committee is locked in a standoff over a key deduction disproportionately utilized in swing blue-state districts. And the Agriculture Committee is struggling to reach the $230 billion in spending cuts it’s targeting for the country’s largest anti-hunger program amid backlash from centrists.” Another big debate: As House Republicans prepare to release a first attempt at a tax bill in the coming days, they’re “straining to incorporate” some of President Trump’s more outlandish promises to upend the tax code, NYT’s Andrew Duehren reports. That includes his vow to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits, as well as his recent suggestion that revenue from tariffs means that the U.S. could stop taxing income under $200,000. The new GOP: “My beef with what’s being proposed right now, there’s no guiding principle other than, ‘well, this is what President Trump promised on the campaign,’” says Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). The political risk: Republicans are largely “extending tax breaks that have been on the books for years,” POLITICO’s Brian Faler writes. “To many voters, it may not seem like anything has changed in their taxes — and that will present a unique sales challenge for GOP lawmakers. … At the same time, to help defray the cost of their plans, they are eyeing spending cuts that could be more noticeable to their constituents, including changes to Medicaid, a popular health safety-net program.” Watch this space. TARIFFS: Overnight, a new round of 25 percent tariffs on auto parts came into effect. That’s distinct from pre-existing tariffs on the imported autos themselves. “Not a single of the 10 million cars turned out by US plants last year was built without at least some imported parts,” CNN’s Chris Isidore writes. That means the price of American-made cars is about to go up. How much will it cost? CNN’s analysis of trade data estimates the “added cost of tariffs could still come to an average of about $4,000 per vehicle.” The price increase could vary widely, though: The Detroit News notes that an analysis by the Anderson Economic Group this week pegged the range from $2,000 to more than $15,000 per vehicle. Not just the auto industry: As the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs begin to take hold, more companies are warning consumers that they’ll be raising prices as a result, as NYT’s Madeleine Ngo reports — and sometimes, they’re being explicit about the policies responsible for it. … CNBC reports that retailers’ holiday-season orders are already down more than 50 percent compared to 2024. … And in the Journal, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok warns that the tariffs could particularly slam small businesses, which lack the resources of major corporations: “The important statistic in that context is that 80% of employment in the U.S. economy is in businesses with less than 500 workers,” Slok says. A potential source of optimism: Beijing is exploring “ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start,” WSJ’s Lingling Wei scooped. “In a clear shift in tone Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war, while expressing Beijing’s wish for the Trump administration to ‘show sincerity’ to talk. Previously, the ministry had demanded that Washington slash its steep tariffs on China first as a condition for negotiations.” What comes next on that front? China is considering dispatching Wang Xiaohong — described by the Journal as Chinese President Xi Jingping’s “security czar” — to meet with top Trump administration officials. Whether that’ll be in the U.S or in a third country is unclear. Worth clocking: This week, 49 Senate Republicans voted against a Senate resolution to repeal Trump’s global tariffs. Taking a step back, WSJ’s Molly Ball sees it as “a landmark moment in the GOP’s Trumpist evolution, showing how the party has bent to his will, sacrificing the free-market dogma once considered fundamental to its conservative identity.”
| | | | A message from Planned Parenthood Federation of America: 1 in 4 people have visited a Planned Parenthood health center for expert, affordable care, including birth control, wellness visits, cancer screenings and more.
But lawmakers who oppose reproductive health are targeting Planned Parenthood. They want to take away the health care millions of patients rely on — especially those with low incomes.
Planned Parenthood won't stop fighting for the care people need and deserve.
We need you in this fight. Visit http://ImForPP.org to learn more. | | | | IMMIGRATION RESTRICTIONS: As Trump’s presidency passed the 100-day mark this week, “large swaths” of his effort to mount a mass deportation campaign “have been blocked by judges across the country, who say the bumper sticker slogans have translated into flagrantly illegal policies,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney writes. But but but: “Trump’s immigration agenda has not been uniformly foiled,” Kyle notes. “He has deployed thousands of troops to the southern border, empowered immigration authorities and overseen a steep decline in illegal border crossings. Importantly, many of the policies halted by district judges have yet to work their way through appeals courts and to the Supreme Court for final review, where Trump hopes to prevail.” Companion reading: “Trump Instigated the Battle with Judges over Immigration,” by National Review’s Andrew McCarthy Even so: This is a fight the White House wants, and they’re leaning into high-profile confrontations. See, for instance … immigration czar Tom Homan’s suggestion that Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers could face felony charges if the Trump administration believes he impedes its deportation efforts, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Molly Beck reports. Evers called Homan’s comments “chilling,” while the White House said Homan "neither threatened nor predicted criminal charges against anyone." Companion reading: “AOC taunts Tom Homan after DOJ referral threat over deportations: 'Come for me,'” by Fox News’ Michael Dorgan The bet: It’s clear that the Trump administration sees all this as a winning issue for them. That’s debatable, of course. But consider if the immigration crackdown adds to a general sense of “chaos” or if it contributes to a shortage of workers in agriculture or construction — which in turn, could further raise the prices of food and housing. Will it still be a political winner for them?
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| | | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the first person since Henry Kissinger to simultaneously serve as secretary and national security adviser. | Alex Wong/Getty Images | 1. RUBIO RISING: As Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes the first person since Henry Kissinger to simultaneously serve as secretary and national security adviser, a number of White House aides are hoping to make the arrangement permanent, POLITICO’s Dasha Burns scooped. As “senior Trump staffers mulled the idea in recent days, they came to see the synergy between the two roles as an advantage.” Even so, the White House is “actively sorting out how Rubio will juggle it all,” CNN’s Alayna Treene, Kylie Atwood, Alex Marquardt and Jeff Zeleny report. Among the questions: “Will Rubio move into [former national security adviser Mike] Waltz’s former West Wing office, a coveted first-floor space down the hall from the Oval Office? Will he hire new staff to serve on the national security team? And how much of his State Department portfolio will he hand off to deputy Chris Landau? And on a more existential level: Will the United States’ international standing and safety suffer if the president’s top foreign affairs adviser is also his top adviser on national security?” Big-picture look at Rubio: “Marco Rubio is doing big things under President Donald Trump — way more than nearly anyone expected,” POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi, Felicia Schwartz and Robbie Gramer write this morning. “Rubio’s rise offers a lesson to others trying to survive under Trump, whose first term was marked by constant staff turnover. Subordinate your ego and your views to the president’s; stay quiet when you need to, but be loud in defending Trump’s point of view; and outmaneuver rivals by doing just enough to make Trump unwilling to side against you.” 2. MIKE WALTZ HAS LEFT THE CHAT: The backstory behind Waltz’s ouster continues its spill into public view. The latest installment comes from WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Emily Davies, Sarah Ellison and Natalie Allison, who report that although Waltz’s fate was sealed by the Signalgate fiasco, “he had been clashing with other top officials since early in the administration, including over whether to pursue military action against Iran, senior officials and Trump advisers said Friday.” Eyes emoji: Waltz upset Trump by appearing to “have engaged in intense coordination with [Israeli PM Benjamin] Netanyahu about military options against Iran ahead of an Oval Office meeting between the Israeli leader and Trump, the two people said. Waltz ‘wanted to take U.S. policy in a direction Trump wasn’t comfortable with because the U.S. hadn’t attempted a diplomatic solution,’ according to one of the people. ‘It got back to Trump and the president wasn’t happy with it,’ that person said.” 3. BIG WIN FOR BIG LAW: In a major setback for Trump’s campaign against legal firms, a federal judge ruled late last night that the president’s executive order targeting Perkins Coie for working with Hillary Clinton and other Democrats was unconstitutional and “motivated by retaliation,” POLITICO’s Daniel Barnes reports. “In purpose and effect, this action draws from a playbook as old as Shakespeare, who penned the phrase: ‘The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers,’” wrote Judge Beryl Howell. “Eliminating lawyers as the guardians of the rule of law removes a major impediment to the path to more power.” Always read the footnotes: In a long footnote in his ruling, Howell chided the Big Law firms that opted to cut deals with the White House rather than challenge his executive orders targeting them. “If the founding history of his country is any guide, those who stood up in court to vindicate constitutional rights and, by so doing, served to promote the rule of law, will be the models lauded when this period of American history is written,” he wrote. 4. E-RING READING: “Tim Parlatore is a personal attorney and top adviser to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth,” POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Josh Gerstein report. “At the same time, he’s suing the Navy and defending private clients against the U.S. government.” And that’s tripping alarm bells among those who worry about a potential conflict of interest — and the potential for retribution within the Pentagon. To wit: “That tension will be on display in federal court in Washington next week, as Parlatore — wearing his private lawyer hat — leads the defense of retired four-star Adm. Robert Burke against corruption charges. … That means Parlatore is likely to be cross-examining high-level Navy witnesses who know of his close ties with Hegseth and in-uniform responsibility for legal matters of keen interest to the secretary.”
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2025 MILKEN GLOBAL CONFERENCE:
From May 4–7, California Playbook will deliver exclusive, on-the-ground coverage from the 28th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference. Get behind-the-scenes buzz, standout moments, and insights from leaders in AI, finance, health, philanthropy, geopolitics, and more. Subscribe now for your front-row seat to the conversations shaping our world. | | | | | 5. SPY GAMES: The White House is quietly planning mass layoffs inside the CIA on top of a broader reshuffle of the nation’s top spy agencies, WaPo’s Warren Strobel scoops. The administration reportedly plans to trim the CIA staff by 1,200 over the next several years and "cut thousands more from other parts of the U.S. intelligence community, including at the National Security Agency. … No outright firings are envisioned. The goal of a roughly 1,200-person staff reduction includes several hundred individuals who already have opted for early retirement.” 6. THE NEW DOJ: Justice Department attorneys announced yesterday that they’d reached a "settlement in principle" in the wrongful death case brought by the family of Ashli Babbitt, the pro-Trump rioter fatally shot by a Capitol Police officer on Jan. 6, 2021, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports. Though the case had been set for a 2026 trial, the DOJ reversed course after Trump returned to office. The fallout: “The impending payout to Babbitt’s family is likely to tear open lingering wounds on Capitol Hill,” Kyle writes. “The settlement news comes as the Justice Department has also argued in favor of refunding restitution payments made by some rioters — funds meant to cover damage caused to the Capitol — and shortly after Trump himself floated the notion of payments to rioters.” 7. SO MUCH FOR ‘SEE YOU IN COURT’: The Trump administration agreed on Friday to “halt all efforts to freeze funds intended for a Maine child nutrition program after initially suspending those dollars due to a disagreement between the state and Trump over transgender athletes,” the AP reports. “In response, the state will drop its lawsuit that had been filed against the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey announced.” As you may recall … President Trump has feuded with Maine Gov. Janet Mills over her refusal to acquiesce to the administration’s executive order banning transgender student athletes from participating in women’s and girls’ sports. At a White House event in February, Trump told Mills she had “better comply” with his order. “See you in court,” she replied. 8. HE WHO KNOWS THE RULES RULES: “Republicans in Congress Use Obscure Law to Roll Back Biden-Era Regulations,” by NYT’s Maya Miller: Though the Congressional Review Act “allows lawmakers to reverse recently adopted federal regulations with a simple majority vote in both chambers,” Hill Republicans “are testing the limits of the law in a way that could vastly expand its use and undermine the filibuster, the Senate rule that effectively requires 60 votes to move forward with any major legislation.” What they’re doing: “Republicans are trying to go much further with the law, including using it to effectively attack state regulations blessed by the federal government,” including using disapproval resolutions to roll back California’s strict air pollution standards by rejecting EPA waivers — even though the Senate parliamentarian says the waivers “do not constitute federal regulations and thus are not subject to the Congressional Review Act.” 9. VANCE’S WORLD TOUR: AP’s Darlene Superville and Julie Carr Smyth are out with a 30,000-foot view on VP JD Vance’s latest round of politicking abroad, which featured “a mix of meetings with world leaders, sharply crafted speeches advancing U.S. policy, ‘soft power’ appearances to build goodwill and family time at tourist sites along the way.” It’s good to be VP: “Vance frequently switches gears on the road. Last week, he wedged in a quick beer with service members in Germany — and autographed the ‘kegerator' built by one airman — after days of wall-to-wall official and cultural activities throughout Italy and India."
| | | | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today—learn more. | | | | | CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies
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Matt Davies | GREAT WEEKEND READS: — “American Panopticon,” by The Atlantic’s Ian Bogost and Charlie Warzel: "The Trump administration is pooling data on Americans. Experts fear what comes next.” — “Is the U.S. Becoming an Autocracy?” by The New Yorker’s Andrew Marantz: “Other countries have watched their democracies slip away gradually, without tanks in the streets. That may be where we’re headed—or where we already are.” — “Ted Kaczynski’s Brother Wrote Him For Decades to Explain Why He Turned Him In,” by NYT’s Serge Kovaleski: “Ted Kaczynski, whose anti-tech rants are finding a new generation of readers, shunned the brother who called the F.B.I. in an effort to halt his campaign of violence.” — “Is Anthony Weiner Ready to Go Another Round?” by The Atlantic’s Josh Tyrangiel: “The ex-congressman whose name became a punch line is running for New York’s city council. In some ways, he hasn’t changed a bit.” — “All the President’s Men,” by Adam Lehrer for Tablet: “The man responsible for staffing Trump’s administration is a right-wing DJ with a murky past who has allowed saboteurs to contravene the president’s agenda from within—setting the precedent that there is no cost for defying the commander in chief.” — “Fearing deportation, a beloved music teacher gives a final lesson,” by WaPo’s Karina Elwood: “Jesús Rodríguez, worried about being detained, decided to leave the country before his humanitarian parole expired.” — “My Miserable Week in the ‘Happiest Country on Earth,’” by NYT Mag's Molly Young: “For eight years running, Finland has topped the World Happiness Report — but what exactly does it measure?”
| | TALK OF THE TOWN | | D.C.’s Planet Word museum welcomed 10 ducklings. IN MEMORIAM — “Former Gov. George Ryan, who halted state’s death penalty but was imprisoned for corruption, dies at 91,” by The Chicago Tribune’s Rick Pearson: “Ryan’s career was honed on old-school politics, reliant upon patronage and deal-making, as he also underwent an ideological metamorphosis that took him from hard-line rural conservatism to more pragmatic progressive policymaking. Such was the case in moving from a capital punishment supporter to placing a moratorium on the death penalty.” — “Warren I. Cohen, leading scholar of U.S.-China relations, dies at 90,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer: “Dr. Cohen, the son of a New York cabdriver, was the first member of his family to receive a college education and financed much of his university education with a scholarship from a taxi company. … In an academic environment in which many professors hone narrowly defined areas of expertise, he demonstrated — with his dozen or more books exploring Cold War history as well as U.S.-Asian relations — the enduring value of a generalist.” TRANSITION — Becca Glover is now executive director of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC. She was previously deputy chief of staff for Youngkin and is a Trump Administration and Burr for Senate alum. … Annie Starke Lange is now VP of government affairs at the National Confectioners Association She previously was senior director of federal affairs for the Beer Institute. … Charlotte Law is now senior manager of media relations at the American Petroleum Institute. She previously was comms director for Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and is a Ben Cline, Rick Scott and NRSC alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) … Willie Geist … Caroline Critchfield Hunter of Stand Together … Ben Ginsberg … Scott Kamins of Kamins Consulting … former Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) … POLITICO’s Matt Friedman, Anna Foxwell and David Nicks … Chip Rogers … Tim Mulvey … Alex Loehr … SKDK’s Stephen Krupin … Greg Clugston … Chris Evans … Linda Kenyon … Vic Goetz of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) office … Stephen Labaton … Chelsea Thomas of ACT | The App Association … Ella Yates … Invariant’s Kenny Roberts … Julia Convertini … Lindsey Kolb … Caitlin Peruccio … Sam Azzarelli of Firehouse Strategies … former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy … Syensqo’s Michael Blume … Charter’s Catherine Bohigian … Carolyn Davis … Paul Kangas … Claudia Russo … Chris Bodenner … Jason Killian Meath … Avi Weinryb … Gregory FCA’s Eleanor Donohue … Seth Flaxman of Flaxman Strategies THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): NBC “Meet the Press”: President Donald Trump. Panel: Peter Alexander, Symone Sanders Townsend, Marc Short and Keir Simmons. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) … Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) … Ken Martin. Panel: Olivia Beavers, Richard Fowler, Mollie Hemingway and Hans Nichols. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … retired Gen. H.R. McMaster … Katherine Maher … Paula Kerger. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) … Mike Wirth … retired Gen. Jack Keane … Charlie Kirk. CNN “State of the Union”: Stephen Smith … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Panel: Guest: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), Shermichael Singleton, Ashley Allison and Kristen Soltis Anderson. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Due to incorrect information provided by the network, yesterday’s Playbook misstated who is appearing on CNN’s “State of the Union.” It is Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).
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