| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | Presented by The American Council of Life Insurers | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. THE BIGGEST POLITICAL MEETING HAPPENING TODAY … is not at the White House, where Donald Trump’s top officials are war-gaming the outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan. It’s not in Congress, where Republicans are arguing bitterly behind closed doors over cuts to Medicaid. And it’s not at the Fed, where policymakers must today decide whether to bow to Trump’s demands and cut interest rates. (More on all that in a moment.) Nope: The room you really want to be in today is in Rome — or to be precise, the Sistine Chapel — where scores of robed cardinals from across the world are gathering beneath Michelangelo’s legendary fresco to select the new pope. One of the most powerful religious positions on the planet is up for grabs, and as fans of the Ralph Fiennes movie “Conclave” know, there is no election in the world quite like this one. (Even real-life cardinals have reportedly been watching the movie to prepare.) Voting starts this morning among the 133 cardinals with voting rights. And they’ll vote again and again, every morning and afternoon, until there’s a winner with a two-thirds majority. Gloriously, it takes as long as it takes. Could be a couple of days; could be a couple of years. And every ballot paper is burned, and every cardinal sworn to secrecy. Can you imagine the conversations happening inside that room? Further reading: The conclave happens behind closed doors. World leaders are still meddling, by POLITICO’s Hannah Roberts and Ben Munster. AND WHILE WE’RE WAITING FOR THE WHITE SMOKE: Tune in at 4:30 p.m. to see another master of backroom politics, Nancy Pelosi, interviewed by POLITICO’s own Jonathan Martin. More details on that — and other Munich Leaders Meeting events — further down the email. In Playbook this morning: — JD Vance takes center stage in D.C. as another regional conflict erupts. — Joe Biden gives his first post-presidency interview … to the Brits. — Jerome Powell will announce his interest rates decision at 2 p.m. All eyes will be on Truth Social for the inevitable outburst.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
United States Vice President JD Vance addresses the audience during the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich, Germany, on Feb. 14, 2025. | Matthias Schrader/AP | ANOTHER CONFLICT ZONE: The outbreak of hostilities last night between India and Pakistan — two nuclear-armed neighbors with a decades-long list of grievances — adds another layer of concern for a planet already gripped by multiple regional wars. India reportedly lost several fighter jets following a series of attacks on Pakistan and Pakistani-held territory, undertaken in response to a devastating terrorist attack in Kashmir earlier this month. Pakistan has vowed to hit back hard, and as of this morning it’s impossible to know just how swiftly things may escalate. This is already the most serious military exchange between the two sides since the war of 1999. Latest here from the NYT May you live in interesting times: India’s attack comes less than 48 hours after Israel announced plans for a further devastating incursion into Gaza if there’s no agreement on a new hostage and ceasefire deal. … And of course, the bombing continues in Ukraine, more than three years on from Russia’s illegal invasion — and 108 days after Trump had pledged he’d end the war. … And that’s aside from the civil wars gripping western Africa and Myanmar ... The end of history, this is not. Striding out against this disturbing backdrop this morning is Vice President JD Vance, the star turn at the Munich Leaders Meeting on global security taking place in D.C. today. Vance will be on stage at 9:30 a.m. for a Q&A led by Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German diplomat who chairs the annual Munich Security Conference. You’d imagine they’ll find one or two things to discuss. And with Trump not scheduled to make any press appearances today, it’s Vance — along with a 1 p.m. briefing by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt — who looks like the main event. Reminder: Vance’s appearance back in February at this year’s Munich Security Conference was one of the most significant events of the new administration. It sits alongside Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and the Oval Office ambush of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a made-for-TV moment when you saw the whole world change before your eyes. Vance berated a room packed with America’s postwar allies for their attitudes toward right-wing populism, freedom of speech and more. “If you’re running in fear of your own voters,” Vance told them, “there is nothing America can do for you.” It was the most hostile message from the U.S. government to Europe in living memory. And it wasn’t an act: Vance is obviously keen to chalk up MAGA-land brownie points ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries. But his feelings toward America’s allies in Europe appear to be genuine and deeply felt — as the leaked Signalgate messages confirmed. “I just hate bailing Europe out again,” he texted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in March, as he argued against attacking Houthi rebels merely to keep one of Europe’s most important shipping lanes open. This stuff matters: Vance’s stance at Munich — endorsed and driven forward by Trump and Hegseth — has left Europe believing that it must be ready to stand alone. This is a seismic shift from the post-1945 world order, and one that no future Democratic or traditional Republican president will easily undo. Ultimately, it calls into question the very future of NATO, an alliance which depends entirely upon the conviction of its enemies that an attack on one of its members would be deemed an attack on them all. Does that still stand? Does Russian President Vladimir Putin believe it? Let’s see what Vance says. And then tune in for the NATO response: Your Playbook author will be interviewing top NATO official Benedetta Berti on stage at 3:45 p.m. for her response to what Vance has to say. Here’s the YouTube link While you’re waiting for that: Former President Joe Biden has given his first sit-down interview since Trump and Vance’s inauguration — and to a British journalist from the north of England, no less. (They’re all the rage these days.) Biden told the BBC’s Nick Robinson that Trump’s approach to Ukraine is "modern-day appeasement," and that it’s “foolish” to believe Putin will stop the violence if he’s given parts of Ukraine. And there’s more: Biden hit out against Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Panama, Greenland and Canada — all U.S. allies whom the president has recast as land-grab opportunities. "What the hell's going on here?” Biden asked rhetorically. “What president ever talks like that? That's not who we are. We're about freedom, democracy, opportunity — not about confiscation.” Speaking of which: The WSJ revealed last night that U.S. intelligence agency chiefs have been ordered to step up their surveillance of Greenland. It’s a further sign that — unlike his half-playful musings about Canada — Trump seems deadly serious about increasing U.S. influence over Greenland. Last bit of Vance: On a lighter note, JD’s brother, Cory Bowman, ran in the primary for Cincinnati mayor last night. And he came in second with 2,894 votes — enough to get him through to the final head-to-head later this year. Unfortunately, the guy who came first — current Mayor Aftab Pureval — got 18,505 votes, a whopping 85 percent of those who turned out. Ooft. The two men will do it all again in the fall … Our very own Adam Wren profiled Bowman in March.
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People, businesses and communities across the country rely on life insurers for the $8 trillion they invest in the U.S. economy, the policies they guarantee and the financial safety nets they create. See how life insurers help America grow and prosper. | | | | THE ECONOMY, STUPID FED UP: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference this afternoon after announcing the Fed’s latest decision on interest rates. Despite the pressure from Trump over recent weeks, analysts are pretty much united that the Fed will hold interest rates at their current level again today. “Investors are betting rates won’t be cut, at least for now,” Bloomberg’s Enda Curran reports, “given the economy continues to hold up … and inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target.” Timing: The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. … Powell’s presser kicks off at 2:30. What’s cheering up Powell: The prospect of some actual trade deals on the horizon. The FT reported yesterday that an agreement with Britain has almost been reached, with the U.K. seeking quota exemptions from some of the punishing tariffs on metals and cars. Coming attractions: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will be in Geneva this weekend to meet China’s top economic lieutenant for the first face-to-face talks since Trump’s tariff war began. “In a face-saving gesture, both sides attempted to portray the high-level meeting as coincidence,” POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Doug Palmer note. “I was going to be in Switzerland to negotiate with the Swiss,” Bessent told Fox News. “Turns out the Chinese team is traveling through Europe, and they will be in Switzerland also.” (And if you believe that, Playbook has a load of Chinese-made dolls to sell you.) THE KIDS WON’T BE ALRIGHT: Various ambassadors to the U.S. speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference in LA yesterday warned Trump against imposing tariffs on foreign movies. “I don’t think we want to see a tax on ‘Bluey’,” Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd said of the highly addictive kids’ cartoon which hails from his home country. U.K. Ambassador Peter Mandelson voiced similar sentiments, invoking the likes of James Bond. More from POLITICO’s Emma Anderson. MEANWHILE ON THE HILL DEJA VU: There’s another round of big meetings to watch closely today as congressional Republicans duke it out over their spending megabill. The House Energy & Commerce Republicans are meeting at 10 a.m., while the House Ways and Means Committee Republicans have their weekly noon lunch. The so-called Big Six Meeting — run by Bessent, with GOP leaders and the House and Senate tax committee chairs — has a get-together in the late afternoon. This could provide the most substantial window into what progress has been made. Follow all the latest news with POLITICO’s Inside Congress Live What yesterday’s meetings yielded: Ways and Means Republicans are at least sounding more optimistic that the panel can hold a vote on the GOP tax package in a matter of “days,” POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim reports. But Energy and Commerce Republicans aren’t as in line on the spending cuts before them, including a policy targeting drug prices that the Trump administration has pushed as one alternative to steep Medicaid cuts, POLITICO’s Ben Leonard and Robert King report.
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1 in 5 Americans will be 65+by 2030. Annuities provided by life insurers guarantee a secure lifetime income. See how life insurers safeguard seniors. | | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Medicaid messaging: A new ad campaign backed by Plymouth Union Public Advocacy is launching today urging GOP lawmakers to reform Medicaid and extend tax credits that help working families pay for health insurance. The 30-second spot, titled “One Two Punch,” is backed by a $650,000 buy and is a part of a seven-figure effort to boost Trump’s agenda. The ad will run on TV and digital platforms in D.C. as well as the home states of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), John Curtis (R-Utah), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Moving close: The new ads come as a group of critical moderate Republicans indicated last night that they’re getting closer to a “yes” on a revised effort to overhaul Medicaid after a meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson and other leaders, POLITICO’s Ben Leonard, Meredith Lee Hill and Robert King report. COMING UP TODAY: A host of Trump administration officials are hitting the Hill today for a series of newsy-looking grillings. Bessent will be before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. … Energy Secretary Chris Wright goes before a House Appropriations subcommittee at 10 … Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins will appear before a House Appropriations subcommittee, also at 10.. … FBI Director Kash Patel will sit for a House Appropriations subcommittee at 2 p.m. Also on the agenda: The House Education Committee could provide the most explosive headlines today when it brings the presidents of three non-Ivy League universities in for testimony titled: “Beyond the Ivy League: Stopping the Spread of Antisemitism on American Campuses.” The heads of Haverford College, DePaul and Cal Poly State at San Luis Obispo are all due before the panel. TRAIL MIX: Senate Republicans’ prospects across the Senate map are looking a lot less like certain than they did a few months back. The latest wrench came from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for Senate, and the whole picture could get messier still as Trump’s tariffs and a cloudy economic picture threaten to tilt next year’s midterms away from the party, POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Rachael Bade and Lisa Kashinsky write. Getting crowded in Illinois: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a prolific fundraiser, is rolling out his long-expected Senate run to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos reports this morning. Krishnamoorthi — who’s centering his campaign on fighting back against Trump — has already banked $19 million in his coffers. The Democratic primary is getting tighter, with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly already declared. Rep. Lauren Underwood could also jump in soon.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The new abortion roadmap: The nation’s most influential anti-abortion groups have a new plan to curb access to the procedure for millions of Americans in what they’re calling the “biggest opportunity for the pro-life movement” since toppling Roe v. Wade, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein reports. The effort, dubbed “Rolling Thunder,” is the first concerted effort under the second Trump administration to target abortion pills — and aims to have the FDA, Congress and courts crack down on their use. Read the article FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Eyes on 2028: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear isn’t just interested in running for president — he’s “actively laying the tracks for a potential 2028 campaign,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider reports this morning. “He’s meeting privately with donors, recording a podcast and regularly popping up at national events. A former Kamala Harris communications staffer is consulting for him, and he’s speaking at the Future Forward donor summit this weekend in California.” Much more in the full story ICYMI: The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that Trump can proceed with a plan to ban transgender people from the military, including by removing transgender troops currently serving, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. COURT IN THE ACT: A federal judge refused to withdraw her order requiring the administration to seek the return of a Venezuelan man deported to El Salvador’s megaprison in violation of a legal settlement, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein reports. IMMIGRATION FILES: The administration “may deport migrants to Libya for the first time this week,” even in spite of “Washington's past condemnation of Libya's harsh treatment of detainees,” Reuters’ Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali and Humeyra Pamuk scooped. THE NAME GAME: Trump is expected to announce during his trip to Saudi Arabia next week that he will refer to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf” or the “Gulf of Arabia,” a scoop that was, naturally, delivered by the AP.
| | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump Jr.’s new and highly exclusive Executive Branch club appears to have filed its floor plan with the D.C. Department of Buildings, per Cheddar’s Margaret Chadbourn. George W. Bush is not expected to attend an event at the White House hosted by first lady Melania Trump this week to honor his late mother Barbara Bush’s commemorative postage stamp, WaPo’s Natalie Allison reports. Andrew Giuliani, Rudy’s son, is set to serve as executive director of the 2026 FIFA World Cup task force. Roger Goodell and Josh Harris worked the D.C. Council for support of the deal to build a new NFL stadium in the district. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Trump’s immigration crackdown has reached D.C. now, with ICE agents “targeting DC restaurants,” Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman reports. “Millie’s in Spring Valley, Pupatella in Dupont Circle, Chef Geoff’s in Northwest, Chang Chang downtown, and Ghostburger in Shaw are among the businesses that immigration officials have visited seeking I-9 forms verifying employment eligibility,” with still “unconfirmed reports of agents at several other DC restaurants as well.” OUT AND ABOUT — Americans for the Arts hosted a welcome reception for new CEO Erin Harkey at the Washington home of Gloria Dittus yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Lyndon Boozer, Margaret Carlson, Steve Clemons, Keenan Austin Reed, Colette Honorable, Hala Ayala, Megan Beyer, Joyce Brayboy, Deborah Rutter, Pam Breaux, Tamara Buchwald, Tasha Cole, Nicole Elkon, Bruce Kieloch, Philippa Hughes, Susan McCue, Melissa Sandor, Laurie McKay, Eve and Peter O'Toole, Tom Quinn, Diane Blagman, Tamara Remy, Kimball Stroud and David White, Kevin Ryan, Melissa Moss, Tara Setmayer and Mignon Clyburn. — Abraham Enriquez hosted the Bienvenido Empresarios Business & Policy Summit on Monday and Tuesday, bringing together major Hispanic business leaders and elected officials for two days of high-level meetings and receptions that featured a meeting with RNC Chair Mike Whatley, a Cinco de Mayo celebration and sessions with Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) and Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas). SPOTTED: Esteban Abascal, Publio Adrianza, Hugo Alanis, Carlos Alvarez, Alfredo Carrasco, Francisco Cervantes, Lupe De La Cruz III, Natalia Denegri, Fernando De Leon, Mauricio Doehner, Lili Gil Valletta, Jeronimo Hirschfeld, Antonio Leonardo, Javier Loya, Ricardo Maiz, Santiago Marti, Liliana Mejia, Mario Orozco, Ivan Rivas, Raul Rocha, Orlando Salazar, Norberto Sanchez, Rafael Selvas, Veronica Schnitzius, Morris Smith and Bob Unanue. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is announcing the senior staff for his reelection campaign: Rob Jesmer will continue serving as general consultant, Tony Fabrizio will serve as lead pollster, Andy Hemming will serve as campaign manager, Matt Mackowiak will serve as comms director and senior adviser, Jahan Wilcox will serve as senior adviser, Vincent Harris will serve as director of digital strategy and Matt Wiltshire will serve as political director. TRANSITIONS — Will Mascaro is now director of coalitions and legislative strategy for the Republican Study Committee. He previously was a policy adviser for the Senate Steering Committee. … Sara Lonardo is now EVP of Focal Point Strategy Group. She most recently was deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS. … Zach Gillan is joining the American Exploration & Production Council as VP of comms. He previously was a VP at S-3 Group. … … Democracy Forward is bringing on James Singer as media relations director, Amahree Archie joins as press secretary and Jacob Bernard will serve as deputy press secretary. Singer previously was rapid response adviser and senior spokesperson for Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. Archie previously was Nevada state press secretary for the Harris-Walz campaign. Bernard previously was press assistant to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. WEDDING — Caleb Burdett, a policy analyst for America First Policy Institute, and Elizabeth Walker, a social media coordinator for Safariland Group, got married in Elizabeth’s home state of Indiana on April 26. They met in 2023 when they were introduced by a mutual friend. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) … Fox’s Brian Kilmeade … OpenAI’s Mark Murray … Keith Stern … John Scofield of S-3 Group … Colm O’Comartun of 50 State … POLITICO’s Jeremy Bowers … Nickie Currie of Amgen … RNC’s Christian Schaeffer … Jim Steinberg … former Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.), Candice Miller (R-Mich.) and Ted Deutch (D-Fla.) … Andrea Purse … 4C Communication Strategies’ Chris Kennedy ... Brad Wolters … former Utah Gov. Gary Herbert … Noelle Huizenga … CNBC’s Amanda Macias … The 19th’s Grace Panetta … Miranda Peterson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Rodericka Applewhaite’s name.
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