| | | | | | By Eli Okun and Ali Bianco | | Presented by | | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | BREAKING: “Brad Lander, NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate, is arrested outside immigration court,” by AP’s Cesar Attanasio: “[Brad] Lander had spent the morning observing immigration court hearings and told an AP reporter that he was there to ‘accompany’ some immigrants out of the building. A video of the arrest, captured by an AP reporter, shows an agent telling Lander, ‘You’re obstructing.’ Lander replies, as he’s being handcuffed, ‘I’m not obstructing, I’m standing right here in the hallway.’ … One of the officers who led Lander away wore a tactical vest labeled ‘federal agent.’” Watch more
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President Donald Trump is reportedly considering attacking Iran. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | WAR REPORT: American involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict remains an open question today, as strikes continue on the ground and even the administration’s most prominent doves leave room for President Donald Trump to make a decision. What’s on Trump’s mind: The president monitored events with his national security team from the Situation Room this morning, with another meeting just beginning at 1 p.m. Trump is “seriously considering” getting the U.S. involved and launching a strike on Iran, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler report. Saber-rattling on Truth Social: “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump wrote. That “we” refers to the U.S., not Israel, POLITICO’s Jake Traylor reports, though the White House wouldn’t say whether that means the U.S. has planes over Iran. “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. … Our patience is wearing thin,” Trump added. “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” he demanded. Walking the line: Those posts followed Trump’s comments overnight on his way back to Washington that made clear he was keeping his options open. “We’re looking for better than a cease-fire,” he emphasized on Air Force One. “A real end.” And German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the U.S. is considering whether it should take part in Israeli strikes on Iran, per POLITICO’s Nette Nöstlinger and Jan Philipp Burgard. The choice could come down to Iran’s willingness to negotiate, he said. Decision space: With prominent MAGA isolationists loudly urging Trump to stay out of the war, VP JD Vance posted a lengthy commentary on X making the case that Trump has exercised restraint thus far. “He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment,” Vance said. “That decision ultimately belongs to the president. And of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue.” Gabbard in the hot seat: DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress in March that the U.S. intelligence community had determined that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Pressed on that overnight, Trump dismissed his own government’s assessment, telling reporters that “I don’t care what she said.” But Gabbard, a longtime isolationist, backed down and aligned herself with Trump in response today: “What President Trump is saying is the same thing I said in my annual threat assessment in March to Congress,” she told NBC’s Brennan Leach. But but but: Despite Israel’s claim that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat, CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis and Zachary Cohen have fresh reporting that the U.S. intelligence community reached a very different conclusion. Their assessments determined, again, that Iran isn’t building a nuclear weapon (though it has the materials to do so) and would take as long as three years before it could build and attack with one. Big read: “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel,” by NYT’s Jonathan Swan and colleagues: “[O]ver the last several weeks, it became increasingly apparent to Trump administration officials that they might not be able to stop [Israeli PM Benjamin] Netanyahu this time … Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the U.S. intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran.” On the ground: Israel said its latest strikes had killed yet another senior Iranian general, new Revolutionary Guard chief of staff Ali Shadmani, per the AP. And the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency said Israeli attacks had significantly damaged Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, hitting underground enrichment facilities, per the NYT. Meanwhile in Gaza, medics said Israel had shot dead another 59 people at a food aid distribution site — “one of the bloodiest incidents yet,” Reuters writes. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at eokun@politico.com and abianco@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: The U.S. vaping industry and the thousands of small businesses it supports were crushed by the Biden Administration, which used broken policies and regulations to keep flavored vapes out of the country and hands of American consumers. But President Trump and his administration can save flavored vapes – and the Americans who depend on them to quit smoking. President Trump, American vapers and small businesses nationwide are counting on you. Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | |  | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: The pro-Trump group Securing American Greatness is going up with a second phase of ads promoting Republicans’ reconciliation megabill on Fox News nationally and in more than 20 congressional districts, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. It’s part of a longer-term eight-figure campaign. The GOP also got policy backup from a new report from the conservative Paragon Health Institute, which estimated that there are 6.4 million fraudulent enrollments in Healthcare.gov marketplaces, WaPo’s Paige Winfield Cunningham reports. Current and former health officials tell the Post that number sounds too high — but that there is a significant fraud problem. How it’s playing: Republicans may need all the messaging help they can get, because a pair of new polls from WaPo/Ipsos and KFF Health find their bill underwater with the public. The former finds Americans opposed to the bill 42 percent to 23 percent (with another 34 percent having no opinion), and the latter finds the bill viewed unfavorably 64 percent to 35 percent. Populist tax provisions like the Child Tax Credit and no tax on tips are popular, while cuts to food aid, Medicaid and clean-energy tax credits — along with tax cuts for the wealthy — are not. Not there yet: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said the legislation would take “a lot of work” to get his vote, per CNN’s Manu Raju. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she’s “still not satisfied” on Medicaid, per Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson. 2. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: Trump told reporters today that he’ll “probably” push back the deadline yet again for ByteDance to divest TikTok, per the AP. “I think President Xi [Jinping] will ultimately approve it,” he added. That would be the third time Trump has flouted the law passed by Congress last year and upheld by the Supreme Court earlier this year, after he already extended it in January and April. 3. TRAIL MIX: Democrat Christina Bohannan is running — again — for Iowa’s highly competitive 1st Congressional District, setting up a potential third matchup against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), the Des Moines Register’s Marissa Payne reports. … Former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) told the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox that he’s considering running for Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s (D-N.J.) seat if she’s elected governor. … South Carolina GOP AG Alan Wilson is expected to launch a long-anticipated gubernatorial campaign, per AP’s Meg Kinnard, “setting up a primary contest likely to be a multi-candidate competition” for Trump’s backing. Across the Potomac: It’s an anticlimactic primary day in Virginia today. The race for governor is already set to pit Democrat Abigail Spanberger against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in one of the first major contests of the second Trump administration. Regardless of the outcome, the race will produce Virginia’s first female governor — though neither candidate is leaning into that, CNN’s Eva McKend reports. Down ballot, today will determine the Democratic nominees for lieutenant governor and AG, while Republicans are running unopposed, NYT’s Reid Epstein reports. Bern notice: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) announced he’s endorsing democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in the NYC mayoral race, NYT’s Emma Fitzsimmons reports. Sanders’ endorsement comes just after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) big rally backing Mamdani over the weekend — and as Sanders leads a group of Democratic senators calling on party leaders to block billionaire donors and super PACs’ involvement in primaries, per WaPo’s Maeve Reston. Sanders also endorsed NYC Council Member Justin Brannan for comptroller.
| | | | Did you know Playbook goes beyond the newsletter—with powerhouse new co-hosts at the mic? Tune in to The Playbook Podcast every weekday for exclusive intel and sharp analysis on Trump’s Washington, straight from Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns. Start listening now. | | | | | 4. MINNESOTA FALLOUT: Senators received a private security briefing this morning following the shootings targeting Democratic state lawmakers in Minnesota over the weekend, per POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Katherine Tully-McManus. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) told NewsNation’s Kristen Eskow that it was “very productive.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer emerged from the meeting saying that lawmakers needed to spend more on security, and Sens. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) during the briefing called for higher Capitol Police funding, per Punchbowl’s Max Cohen. 5. RESCISSIONS WATCH: The status of the recissions package pushed forward by the House is still up in the air in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune is referring it to the Appropriations Committee, Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio reports, “an acknowledgment they don’t have the votes for the bill as-is.” Coming down the pike: The Trump administration’s already vast cuts could go even deeper as the White House considers deploying the pocket rescission, a “little-known and legally untested power to try to cancel billions of dollars in federal spending, as President Trump’s top aides look for novel ways to reconfigure the budget without obtaining the explicit approval of Congress,” NYT’s Tony Romm reports. The GAO during Trump’s first term said the pocket rescission maneuver was illegal, but OMB Director Russ Vought is dangling the prospect. The DOGE impacts: The Trump administration’s cuts at FEMA and other climate and energy agencies are hampering basic government functions like spending, grants and research, with federal workers saying they are “set up for failure,” POLITICO’s Zack Colman reports. The FEMA cuts could threaten storm recovery in North Carolina, including a multimillion-dollar plan to rebuild a century-old dam, per Reuters’ Nathan Layne. And the DOGE chaos is rippling abroad: Romm reports for the NYT that South Africa’s medical research powerhouse — credited with major breakthroughs on HIV, heart disease and Covid — is getting decimated as a result of the administration’s cuts. 6. DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO: “Powerful Trump aide who’s in charge of vetting thousands of staffers still hasn’t been fully vetted himself: sources,” by the N.Y. Post’s Steven Nelson and Diana Glebova: Sergio Gor “has yet to submit official paperwork about his own background needed for a permanent security clearance … Among the questions applicants must answer under threat of criminal penalties is where they were born and whether they have any foreign connections. Gor claims to be from the island country of Malta, though an official there could not confirm his birthplace when provided his exact birthday, saying: ‘No acts are registered with the provided details.’” 7. TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE: The Trump administration cut a working group “set up to formulate strategies for pressuring Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine,” with U.S. officials telling Reuters’ Gram Slattery that the group “lost steam” in May as Trump seemed uninterested in adopting a more aggressive strategy toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s more bad news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — who’ll be lobbying the rest of the G7, sans Trump, today for stronger support in Ukraine’s war effort, Reuters’ David Ljunggren and colleagues report.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: Nearly 500,000 Americans die annually from smoking cigarettes. 67% of Americans say the government should promote nicotine alternatives to help Americans quit smoking – and they're counting on President Trump to save flavored vaping. In 2019, President Trump took action to protect flavored vapes and small businesses that make up this multibillion-dollar industry. He implemented commonsense age restrictions that allowed adult smokers to vape while pushing youth tobacco rates to an all-time low. After four years of crushing Biden regulations and enforcement, flavored vaping must be saved again. 71% of Trump voters want Biden's illegal policy and regulations banning flavored vapes replaced. And 62% of Trump voters say small businesses should not be penalized just because their products are made in China, as Biden was doing. President Trump, your voters are counting on you to keep your promise – save flavored vaping and save American lives. Learn more at VaporTechnology.org. | | | | |  | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Bob Menendez as of this morning is officially in prison now, set to serve the longest sentence for a senator in U.S. history at a federal facility in Pennsylvania. Barack Obama is returning to the political spotlight tonight for a discussion with Heather Cox Richardson in Connecticut. PLAYBOOK FASHION SECTION — “How an Evangelical Pastor Became the Go-To Tailor for Trump’s Washington,” by WSJ’s Maggie Severns: “From his row house near Capitol Hill, Nathaniel Rios serves a rapidly expanding roster of lawmakers, aides and White House staff who tend to favor snug fits and lots of pro-Trump flair. … Some customers want a jacket lined with Donald Trump’s mug shot. ‘It’s a show of appreciation,’ said Raheem Kassam … Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has a Rios-crafted jacket lined with a photo of himself presiding over the House floor.” MEDIA MOVES — POLITICO is adding Ben Reininga as VP of audio and video and Haley Thomas as head of content of audio and video. Reininga previously was global head of news at Snapchat. Thomas previously was senior producer for CNN’s audio division. More on the audio and video expansion from Variety’s Brian Steinberg TRANSITIONS — Krystal Ka‘ai Hetherington is now executive director of the Commission to Study the Potential Creation of a National Museum of Asian Pacific American History and Culture, which formally launched last week. She previously was executive director of the White House Initiative and President’s Advisory Commission on Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders. … Heather Purcell is now VP of comms for Reproductive Freedom for All. She previously was deputy assistant secretary for public affairs and public health at HHS and is a Ro Khanna and Gavin Newsom alum. … Dean Garfield is now SVP of government affairs at TKO Group Holdings. He most recently was VP of public policy at Netflix. … … Acting Consumer Product Safety Commission Chair Peter Feldman has added Tripp DeMoss as senior counsel and White House liaison and Noah Vehafric as special assistant. DeMoss most recently was an attorney at Balch & Bingham. Vehafric previously was an associate at AxAdvocacy. … Brian Glenn is now a director of government affairs at the American Farm Bureau Federation. He previously was a senior manager of federal government relations at CropLife America. … LeJamiel “Lee” Goodall is now chief of staff at UL Standards and Engagement. He previously was a senior adviser at the General Services Administration in the Biden administration. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM incorrectly stated that the Senate Finance Committee briefed tax associations about the budget reconciliation bill yesterday morning.
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