| | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco Good Saturday morning. This is Garrett Ross in the saddle. Get in touch. DEVASTATING DEVELOPING STORY: “Desperate search for two dozen missing girls from summer camp after Texas floods kill at least 24,” by AP: “Crews searched through the dark early Saturday for two dozen children from a girls’ camp and many others who were still missing after a wall of water rushed down a river in the Texas Hill Country during a powerful storm that killed at least 24 people. The death toll was certain to rise. … The danger was not over as more heavy rains were expected Saturday and flash flood warnings and watches remained in effect for parts of central Texas.”
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
“America’s winning, winning, winning like never before,” Trump said. | Evan Vucci/AP | MAKING IT MEGALAW: President Donald Trump signed the sprawling megabill designed to jumpstart his domestic policy agenda into law in a July Fourth ceremony at the White House yesterday. The scene at 1600 Penn: “Flanked by Republican legislators and members of his Cabinet, Trump signed the multitrillion-dollar legislation outside the White House, and then banged down the gavel that House Speaker Mike Johnson gifted him that was used during the bill’s final passage Thursday,” AP’s Darlene Superville and colleagues write. “The White House was hung with red, white and blue bunting for the Independence Day festivities. The U.S. Marine Band played patriotic marches — and, in a typical Trumpian touch, tunes by 1980s pop icons Chaka Khan and Huey Lewis. There were three separate flyovers.” What Trump said: “America’s winning, winning, winning like never before,” the president said, also referencing the recent strikes against Iran. “Promises made, promises kept, and we’ve kept them.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Here we go again: If the dramatic votes in the House and Senate this week marked the end of a monthslong process of negotiation, infighting and compromise, it also started the clock ticking down the days before Congress has to do it all over again, POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim writes this morning. Cliff jumping: “That’s because the super-sized domestic policy legislation includes a sharp cliff for tax cuts and deep safety-net restrictions — teeing them up to be the subject of fierce political battles in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. The most politically explosive cuts to Medicaid and the nation’s largest food program, for instance, are set to take effect in 2028. Meanwhile, Trump’s most popular tax cuts and a key deduction prized by blue-state Republicans are set to sunset in 2028 and 2029, respectively.” In a pinch: Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick are the only two Republicans who voted against the bill that are currently top targets for Democrats in 2026. But the structure of the legislation “ensures that the most politically perilous provisions in the bill will remain a hot potato — and an opportunity for moderates — for years to come,” Benjamin writes. And beyond: The benefit cuts could crop up in the 2028 presidential race, too, when VP JD Vance, who cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate and is seen as a key salesman for it, will likely be vying for the presidency. “Meanwhile, lawmakers in virtually every state will face pressure in 2028 as provisions kick in requiring most states to shoulder part of the costs of federal food aid for the first time.” BURIED IN THE BILL: POLITICO’s Brian Faler ticks through the series of special tax breaks — costing tens of billions of dollars — that quietly caught a ride on Republicans’ sprawling megabill. Included are carveouts for venture capitalists, Alaskan fisheries, spaceports, private schools, rum makers and others. “The legislation is primarily designed to prevent $4 trillion in looming tax increases set to hit at the end of this year. But, shortly before approving the plan, Senate Republicans added a new crop of unrelated, bespoke tax breaks. House GOP lawmakers got in their share, too. Many are the sort of narrowly targeted breaks Republicans have long complained are unfair, reward influential special interests and unnecessarily complicate the tax code.” On immigration: The new law delivers the White House $170 billion for border and immigration enforcement. Now, the timer to spend it all has started, POLITICO’s Myah Ward writes. “The Trump administration has three-and-a-half years to drastically expand the nation’s border enforcement and deportation infrastructure, a massive logistical challenge for which there is no easy comparison.” And the Trump administration knows it has a major lift ahead of it. “Look, this isn’t easy. Ten thousand ICE officers? Never happened before,” border czar Tom Homan told Myah. “But I’ll say this: It’s about time … with more money, we can do more.” THE RESPONSE: The general consensus from blue state governors and lawmakers boils down to: Sit tight for now and blame Republicans, POLITICO’s Natalie Fertig reports. “Congress’ Medicaid cuts came as dozens of state legislatures dried the ink on their own annual budgets and adjourned — some for the summer, many for the year. But in the face of a funding chasm no state can bridge, uncertainty over the effects of the cuts and the view that Republicans will take the lion’s share of the blame, many blue states are opting to wait and see before trying to solve a problem they didn’t create.” The real-world impact: With the bill now signed into law, state governments are already “bracing for impact as Washington shifts much of the burden for health care, food assistance and other programs onto them,” NYT’s David Chen and Pooja Salhotra report. “Even before the bill’s final passage, state capitals were contending with a slowing economy and federal spending cuts implemented by the Department of Government Efficiency run by Elon Musk. Now they will be expected to administer complex new work requirements for Medicaid and food aid; rework some state health insurance exchanges under the Affordable Care Act; and decide how much they can do to keep their citizens insured and fed once they start losing federal assistance.”
| | | | A message from bp: bp added $190+ billion to the US economy over the last three years. Like starting up our fifth offshore production platform in the Gulf of America – home to some of our lowest-emission barrels of oil and gas. Bringing more US energy online right now is one more way bp is investing in America. | | | | THE REALITY CHECK: Despite Trump’s insistence that he’s ushering in an era of success that hasn’t been seen in “decades,” as he said at the White House yesterday, there are plenty of signs that — much like the cliffs built into his coveted new law — there is uncertain terrain on the horizon. On the megabill: Passing the megabill was the hard part. Now comes the other hard part: Selling it to an American public. Despite the months of debate inside the beltway, voters are still deeply unfamiliar with everything that’s in the new law and how it will impact communities across the country, WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and colleagues report. “Polls show that the bill is unpopular. Opposition outweighed support by more than 20 percentage points in recent Fox News and Quinnipiac University polls. Some Republican lawmakers facing tough races next year represent the most Medicaid-reliant districts. They will have to defend the big cuts in the bill to Medicaid, the health-insurance program for low-income and disabled people, as well as to rural hospitals and to nutrition assistance, once known as food stamps. Those cuts help fund tax cuts in the bill that President Trump called for during the 2024 campaign.” On the economy: Though there have been some gains (and wins for Trump) in recent economic readings, the long-term view is still extremely unclear, WaPo’s Rachel Lerman reports. “Gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter of the year in part because of surging imports, and consumers are feeling hesitant and spending less. It’s also too soon to know the full effect of Trump’s widespread tariffs, especially with a deadline approaching to get deals completed with many countries before levies rise once more. And as immigrants leave the workforce, either voluntarily or by deportation, a lack of workers could create labor shortages in certain key areas and fuel wage inflation.” TURNING ATTENTION: A handful of top Trump officials will be on the Sunday show circuit tomorrow to talk up the new megalaw and the economy. Their messaging will come as we enter a week that is likely to be dominated with headlines regarding Trump’s trade agenda as he tries to secure more deals with major trading partners ahead of his July 9 deadline, when his so-called reciprocal tariffs are set to snap back into effect. Wall Street is warily watching, Reuters notes. If it seems like there’s little to show from the White House on the trade front thus far, that’s not worrying those inside the administration. Just last week, Trump said “we can do whatever we want” regarding the looming deadline. That ambivalence has been a hallmark of negotiations, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Megan Messerly write. “And it highlights an important tension of Trump’s second administration: The president’s long-standing affinity for imposing tariffs is clashing with his reputation as a canny dealmaker.” The scramble: “Foreign officials, trade experts, lawmakers and even some White House allies have expressed a nihilistic view of the July deadline, questioning whether a deal with the Trump administration means anything at all given the president’s penchant for using tariffs as leverage to get his way.” Quite the quote: “Trump knows the most interesting part of his presidency is the tariff conversation,” a person close to the White House told Daniel and Megan. “I find it hard to believe he’s going to surrender it that easily. It’s all fake. There’s no deadline. It’s a self-imposed landmark in this theatrical show, and that’s where we are.”
| | | | A message from bp: bp supports ~300,000 US jobs. Like the skilled laborers and engineers working to produce more American energy right now. Across our five offshore platforms in the Gulf of America, we're making major investments in people and infrastructure. It's just one of the ways bp is investing in America. | | | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. KICKIN’ IT: For all of Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, there is at least one playing field where that message doesn’t translate, POLITICO’s Sophia Cai reports. As the U.S. prepares to play host to the 2026 World Cup, the administration’s efforts offer “a vision of an alternate Trump administration.” It’s a natural posture for Trump, who “has long gravitated personally to the testosterone and glitz of athletic competition.” How it’s playing: “The White House welcomes foreign visitors and maintains harmonious relations with neighboring countries. It works closely with international organizations and serves as a supportive, even solicitous, partner to leaders in Democratic-run states and cities. It is an exception to ‘America First’ large enough to kick a ball through.” Andrew Giuliani, who leads a task force on World Cup preparations, told Sophia that the “largest World Cup in history will be both secure and welcoming,” adding that the U.S. will be “proud to open our doors to fans from around the world and one of the goals of the task force is to ensure that international fans can be a part of this historic sporting event.” 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: The Trump administration has deported eight men to South Sudan today, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports. A federal judge late yesterday blocked a last-ditch effort to keep the men in Djibouti, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write, as U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy ruled the Supreme Court already had the final say. Also yesterday, a six year old Honduran boy sick with leukemia who was arrested in May and held in an ICE detention center in Texas is now back in Los Angeles, NBC’s Corky Siemaszko writes. The big picture: Grassroots immigrant rights organizations are only growing across the country, predominantly in LA, NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa and Miriam Jordan report. “We are not trying to use violence,” said Ron Gochez, the leader of one such group, “but what is happening to our community is completely violent.” 3. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: Trump held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday, which Zelenskyy described as a “very important and fruitful conversation.” But securing a ceasefire appears to still be out of reach as Russia continues to spurn negotiations to end the war. “We talked about different things. We had a very good call, I think a very strategic call,” Trump said. Zelenskyy’s readout of the call said the leaders discussed Ukraine’s air defense, Friday’s attacks and “mutual procurement and investment.” More from POLITICO’s Gigi Ewing Still unclear: The state of air defense missiles. Zelenskyy’s readout said the leaders “agreed to work on increasing the protection of Ukrainian skies” but didn’t specify beyond that, NYT’s Andrew Kramer reports from Kyiv. But Bloomberg’s Michael Nienaber reported yesterday that Germany is in talks with the US to get Ukraine two more Patriot air-defense systems. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is calling for U.S. “flexibility” to make sure Ukraine can continue to fight back, Bloomberg’s Andrea Palasciano writes. On the ground: Putin’s offensive push continues. Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with over 300 drones, injuring 11, ABC’s Natalya Kushnir reports this morning. But Ukraine is pushing back hard, striking Russia’s “home base” for its military fighter jets earlier this AM, Bloomberg’s Olesia Safronova reports. 4. A NEW HOPE: Israeli ministers are meeting tonight on the next steps forward on a ceasefire with Gaza, NYT’s Aaron Boxerman and colleagues report. Hamas responded positively yesterday to the U.S.-backed 60-day ceasefire proposal that got Israel’s stamp of approval earlier this week, NYT’s Adam Rasgon and Ephrat Livni write. Hamas said it’s ready to start negotiations on the proposal, which includes hostage and prisoner swaps and a potential permanent end of fighting. Grain of salt: “It was not immediately clear whether Hamas was demanding any significant changes to the proposal,” per NYT. What Trump is saying: “That’s good. They haven’t briefed me on it,” Trump said last night when asked about Hamas’ positive reaction. “There could be a Gaza deal next week,” he added, saying he’s optimistic but “it changes from day to day.” Still to come: Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the White House on Monday.
| | | | Did you know Playbook goes beyond the newsletter—with powerhouse new co-hosts at the mic? Tune in to The Playbook Podcast every weekday for exclusive intel and sharp analysis on Trump’s Washington, straight from Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns. Start listening now. | | | | | 5. IRAN LATEST: The UN’s nuclear inspectors left Iran yesterday after the country stopped cooperating with the international watchdog, NYT’s Erika Solomon writes, “at a particularly critical moment, when experts are warning that the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities may simply drive the country to take its program underground.” Meanwhile, European officials are saying the U.S. strikes heavily set back Iran’s nuclear proliferation but didn’t “obliterate” it, sharing concerns that any future negotiations with Iran may have been wrecked instead, per WaPo’s Ellen Francis. 6. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: Trump told reporters last night that “we pretty much have a deal” to sell social media app TikTok. “We’re going to start Monday or Tuesday talking to China. … [W]e probably have to get it approved by China. Not definitely but probably,” Trump said. A deal has been in the works for months, as Chinese owner ByteDance stares down a September deadline (which Trump has repeatedly unilaterally extended) to sell the app or shut down US operations, per Reuters. 7. SCOTUS PALACE INTRIGUE: “Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Makes Herself Heard, Prompting a Rebuke,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak: “Jackson wrote just five majority opinions in the Supreme Court term that ended last month … But her voice resonated nonetheless, in an unusually large number of concurring and dissenting opinions … Several of them warned that the court was taking lawless shortcuts, placing a judicial thumb on the scale in favor of President Trump and putting American democracy in peril. … Her opinions, sometimes joined by no other justice, have been the subject of scornful criticism from the right and have raised questions about her relationships with her fellow justices.” 8. A NEW YORK MINUTE: “Mamdani Once Claimed to Be Asian and African American. Should It Matter?” by NYT’s Dodai Stewart: “Three of his rivals in New York City’s mayoral race have strongly criticized [Zohran] Mamdani, with two suggesting potential fraud and calling for further investigation. … Right-wing pundits have flocked to social media to call Mr. Mamdani a liar — and worse. … And his supporters have rallied to his defense, angrily characterizing the disclosure as a politically motivated hit job with no bearing on the mayor’s race.” 9. MEDIAWATCH: “How Paramount’s $16-million Trump settlement came together — and could’ve fallen apart,” by the LA Times’ Meg James: “The deal resulted from months of back-and-forth among a constellation of power players with competing interests … The settlement, which the president approved late Tuesday, included a commitment by Trump to drop his claims and not sue over the May ‘60 Minutes’ broadcast … The eight-month skirmish with Trump shined a harsh light on Paramount’s vulnerabilities — and deep divisions within the company and its prospective new owners. … ‘This [settlement] was all about survival — it was that dark.’”
| | | CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
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Pedro Molina - Tribune Content Agency | GREAT WEEKEND READS: — “What’s It Like to Run a U.S. City Now? Watch What 16 Mayors Said,” by NYT’s Mitch Smith and Alexandra Eaton: “The New York Times sat down last month with 16 mayors at a meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Tampa, Fla. … Their answers revealed deep, bipartisan uncertainty over federal funding and concerns about rising incivility.” — “Syrian forces massacred 1,500 Alawites. The chain of command led to Damascus,” by Reuters’ Maggie Michael: “A Reuters investigation found 40 distinct sites of killings, looting and arson during three days of sectarian massacres following an Assad loyalist insurgency.” — “A Real Cancer in Washington,” by The Atlantic’s Annie Lowrey: “The quiet heroism of my friend in government.” — “Thom Tillis and the Painful Truth About Swing State Politics,” by Christopher Cooper for POLITICO Magazine: “Even the most competitive and evenly balanced states are infected by the same contagion as the hardened one-party states.” — “A town tried to heal racial divides. It energized Confederate supporters instead,” by WaPo’s Gregory Schneider: “What started as an effort to promote racial unity in Edenton by reconsidering its most prominent downtown symbol has done the opposite.” — “How ‘Hot’ Became a Bipartisan Political Buzzword,” by NYT’s Callie Holtermann: “Political messengers on both sides of the aisle are leaning on the same adjective in an attempt to appeal to young voters.”
| | | | Policy moves fast—stay ahead with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant. Effortlessly search POLITICO's archive of 1M+ news articles, analysis documents, and legislative text. Track legislation, showcase your impact, and generate custom reports in seconds. Designed for POLITICO Pro subscribers, this tool helps you make faster, smarter decisions. Start exploring now. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump’s plan to host a UFC fight card on the White House grounds was confirmed by UFC. SPOTTED: Peter Thiel celebrating Independence Day on the LINE Hotel rooftop. IN MEMORIAM — “Joseph Giordano, Surgeon Who Helped Save Reagan’s Life, Dies at 84,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “A little after 3 p.m. on March 30, 1981, Dr. Giordano was examining a patient on his hospital’s sixth floor when an announcement came over the loudspeaker calling him to the emergency room. … [I]t was only after he and his team cut open the president’s suit, revealing a hole below his left armpit, that they realized that [Ronald] Reagan had been shot. … The events that day made Dr. Giordano a public hero.” PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Fourth of July in the capital draws feelings of hope, anger, freedom,” by WaPo’s Juan Benn Jr. and colleagues: “Thousands of people gathered in and around America’s capital city on its 249th birthday for bands, barbecues and Beyoncé … Sipping cold drinks and waving tiny American flags, they didn’t let high temperatures deter the Fourth of July celebrations. … The day stirred feelings of joy and hope for many Americans, even amid declining national pride, rising political violence and persistent fears over threats to democracy.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) … Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) … Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming … NYT’s David Sanger … Mike Stranz … Michael LaRosa … White House’s Dylan Johnson … Laura Peavey of the Financial Services Forum … Kerry Picket … Mike Manatos … Walt Cronkite of the Structured Finance Association … POLITICO’s Zack Colman and Jade Cuevas … Hannah MacInnis … CBS’ Alisa Wiersema Lucaci … Steve McMillin … Beverly Kirk … NBC’s Julie Shapiro … Qualcomm’s Angela Baker … former Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.) … Steve Rattner of Willett Advisors … Barb Barrett of Stateline … David Mortlock of Willkie Farr & Gallagher … Mira Ricardel … John Lawrence … Julie Nixon Eisenhower BIRTHWEEK (were yesterday): USDA’s Riley Pagett … Molly Fromm of the Nickles Group THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Panel: Horace Cooper, Meghan Hays, Mollie Hemingway and Hans Nichols. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) … NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker … Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) … Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.). CBS “Face the Nation”: NEC Director Kevin Hassett … Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) … Ken Burns. ABC “This Week”: CEA Chair Stephen Miran … Larry Summers … Richard Besser. Panel: Donna Brazile and Chris Christie. CNN “State of the Union”: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent … Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Panel: Scott Jennings, Shermichael Singleton, Jamal Simmons and Kate Bedingfield. MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Retired Adm. William McRaven … Robert George … Andrew Sullivan … Julie Silverbrook. NBC “Meet the Press”: Olivia Munn … Bob Costas … Sal Khan … Amanda Gorman. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from bp: bp supports ~300,000 US jobs. America is home to our largest workforce in the world, from the retail stations you know, to places you might be less familiar with – like refineries, offshore production platforms, bioenergy facilities and trading floors. See all the ways bp is investing in America. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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