| | | |  | | By Adam Wren with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today’s episode of the Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns talk about new polling on the midterms, Trump’s Russia pivot and his speech today in Pennsylvania.
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| Happy Tuesday morning. I’m Adam Wren. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Could the key to another House GOP majority be supporting a central Obamacare provision? We have exclusive new polling. — President Donald Trump tries to turn the page on the Jeffrey Epstein story, with a focus on the economy today. — Today’s special election primary in Arizona has split progressives, but could provide the latest fodder for lefties-vs.-the establishment thinkpieces.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump will try to turn the page to the economy today. | David Ramos/Getty Images | BIZARRO WORLD: Perhaps it’s the summer doldrums, perhaps it’s “Superman” leading the box office, but within the last 24 hours, the political universe feels a lot like Bizarro World. … Democrats are sounding positively MAGA-fied when it comes to the Jeffrey Epstein files, while leading MAGA figures call for supporters to trust the government. … Donald Trump is talking tough about Vladimir Putin’s Russia. … Top progressives find themselves on opposite sides of a big House primary today in Arizona. … And we have some new polling from Tony Fabrizio suggesting that the key to Republicans holding onto the House majority may be in supporting a facet of Obamacare. Let’s dig in. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — How the House gets won: My Playbook colleague Dasha Burns landed the exclusive on new polling from Fabrizio Ward, the renowned polling firm favored by the Trump campaign. And depending on your perspective, the results can either be read as a warning sign for Republicans or as a roadmap to another term in the majority. Read the memo Right now: Republicans are trailing on the generic ballot in a survey of 28 battleground House seats, including 15 where Republicans won in 2024 by 5 points or less and 13 won by both a Democratic House candidate and Trump. “While the 2024 outcome for these districts was even, the generic Republican is down 3 points among all registered voters,” Fabrizio and Bob Ward write in their study for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy. “Among those most motivated to vote, an early indication of vote likelihood in the midterms, the Republican is down 7 points.” What could change that: Health care. Or, more precisely, “extending the health care premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves,” per the memo. “Without congressional action, the tax credit expires this year” — which makes it quite different from the megabill’s changes to Medicaid, which do not go into effect until after the midterms. If Republicans extend that tax credit, they lead Democrats on the generic ballot by 6 points overall. But if they let it expire, the generic ballot becomes far worse for Republicans, with the generic Democrat rocketing ahead to a 15-point lead in the battlegrounds. A reminder: This tax credit is a central part of the Affordable Care Act, which congressional Republicans have flirted with repealing and replacing for more than a decade now. It’s more than a little ironic that championing it could potentially turn around Republicans’ fortunes in the midterms. But given the historical headwinds of any incumbent party heading into the midterms, we imagine they’ll take whatever help they can get. Thanks, Obama. Thought bubble: Even if the House does extend the credits, Democrats will almost surely provide the majority of votes. FROM THE FEVER SWAMPS: Is the MAGA furor over the Epstein files dying down? Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and colleagues report that seems to be the case — with congressional Republicans staying far away and Trump possibly having muscled through on base loyalty over substantive disagreements. Charlie Kirk announced that he is “done talking about Epstein for the time being,” and is “gonna trust my friends in the administration.” FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino was back at work yesterday, per CNN’s Kristen Holmes. Even Dinesh D’Souza is parroting the party line. But Laura Loomer & co. haven’t backed off, and the “Möbius strip of paranoia and distrust” could be hard for the administration to shake, NYT’s Shawn McCreesh writes. (Separately, the Justice Department opposed Ghislaine Maxwell’s appeal to the Supreme Court, per the Washington Examiner.) Democrats are not backing off, either. Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) proposed amendment “calling for a FULL release” of the Epstein files was thwarted by the House Rules Committee. Meanwhile, other members appeared to wade a bit further into the fever swamps. Witness Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) seizing on the Trump administration’s handling of the convicted sex offender’s case, taking up his guitar to play an Epstein-infused ballad to the tune of Jason Isbell’s “Dreamsicle.” (Sample lyric: “Trump’s howling at the moon / release the Epstein files soon.”)
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Learn more. | | | | TODAY’S BIG ELECTION: Today, Democrats in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District will choose their nominee to succeed Raúl Grijalva, who died in March. It has “become a three-way race between the late congressman's daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez and Deja Foxx, a 25-year-old social media strategist,” the Arizona Republic previews. One big storyline to watch: National progressives are split on this one. Grijalva is the favorite of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), while Democratic rabble rouser David Hogg backs Foxx, the Zoomer influencer. (As POLITICO’s Ben Jacobs asks this morning: If voters “can elect a reality television star to the White House, what’s stopping them from putting a TikToker on Capitol Hill?”) If Foxx pulls off the upset … be prepared for her to get heaps of coverage, and for it to generate yet more thinkpieces about lefty candidates storming the gates of the Democratic establishment. Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern. Another big midterm storyline: With the FEC quarterly filing deadline today, the midterms will come into sharper relief than ever before. We’ll not only learn which campaigns have momentum — and which don’t — but also gain insights into whether progressives like AOC have the juice, and whether Elon Musk has kept his May pledge to step back from politics. TRUMP’S RUSSIA TURN: Trump once predicted he and Russian President Vladimir Putin could “possibly have a good relationship.” Now? Not so much. Trump is talking tough about Russia and Putin, threatening 100 percent tariffs on Russia’s trading partners if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine within 50 days. First in Playbook — How the White House sees it: Dasha has turned up some fascinating and fresh details on the view of all this from inside the administration. “We’re sending a clear message that we're ratcheting up pressure, and I think that you'll see news on that this coming week,” a senior White House official tells Dasha, adding that Trump is “not pleased.” More from the White House: “Anyone who thinks that the president is, like, soft on Putin or cozying up to Putin totally does not understand him and his style,” this person tells Dasha. Vis-à-vis Ukraine, “Putin is the bigger fish with the upper hand. So he is not going to sort of order him around in the public eye and be nasty. That’s not how he does things.” Read more from Dasha and Eli Stokols The Hill is following Trump’s lead: After the president said he would crack down on Putin if the war in Ukraine continues, Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that he’d prevent a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill from moving forward for now, per POLITICO’s Doug Palmer and Jordain Carney. “It sounds like right now the president is going to attempt to do some of this on his own,” Thune said, explaining the pause.
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Learn more. | | | | THE ECONOMY, STUPID TRYING TO TURN THE PAGE: After incessant headlines about the Epstein storyline, the White House will hope for a day more focused on positive economic headlines and the behind-the-scenes dismantling of swathes of the federal government. Inflation indication: First up is the monthly consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., the latest test of whether tariffs are finally starting to drive inflation higher — or whether hard economic data will defy pessimistic projections yet again. (Economists fear the run of better-than-expected news may blind Trump to a stagflationary risk looming from his Aug. 1 tariffs, NYT’s Colby Smith and Tony Romm report.) And as Trump keeps berating Fed Chair Jerome Powell, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is now a top pick to replace him, WaPo’s Andrew Ackerman reports. Trading places: USTR Jamieson Greer will meet with House Ways & Means Republicans at 10 a.m., per POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim. (Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will do the same tomorrow.) The conversations come as trade wars keep ramping up: Yesterday, the U.S. slapped a 17 percent penalty on Mexican tomatoes, per the AP. And the Commerce Department launched a Section 232 probe of imports of drones and other materials, which could presage sectoral tariffs, per Bloomberg. The global response: Trump’s escalating threats are pushing Europe closer to retaliation. Though negotiations are ongoing, EU officials finalized the list of American goods they’ll punish with counter-measures if talks fail: Boeing planes, bourbon, cars, medical devices, chemicals and much more would be targeted, per Bloomberg. Japan, meanwhile, said it’s still focused on achieving a deal, not hitting back, per ABC. And then the main event: Trump will travel to Pittsburgh for an energy/AI innovation summit with Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) at 2:30 p.m. Alongside dozens of CEOs, they’ll reportedly announce $70 billion in corporate investments in the state that will create thousands of jobs, including $25 billion from Blackstone. CoreWeave will announce up to $6 billion for a Lancaster data center. And plenty more, with top administration and state officials looking on. Meanwhile, back in D.C.: The Trump administration can barrel forward with 1,400 layoffs to take apart the Education Department, after the Supreme Court handed Trump yet another major win, per ABC. Though the emergency ruling didn’t comment on the merits of the legal challenge, which will continue in court, the justices lifted a stay on the administration’s action. The liberal justices dissented, saying it would “unleash untold harm” on students and pose a “grave” threat to the separation of powers. Now, Education Secretary Linda McMahon will act fast to gut the agency and spin off core functions to other departments, AP’s Collin Binkley breaks down. The big picture: Even though the Supreme Court gave the green light to mass firings across the federal government, the administration is readying for a tough agency-by-agency court battle to execute them, WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield and Hannah Natanson report. Top officials are moving carefully to make sure reductions in force can withstand judicial scrutiny.
| | | | Playbook, the unofficial guide to official Washington, isn’t just a newsletter — it’s a podcast, too. With new co-hosts who bring unmatched Trump world reporting and analysis, The Playbook Podcast dives deeper into the power plays shaping Washington. Get the insider edge—start listening now. | | | | | ON THE HILL BANNED AID: OMB Director Russ Vought will meet with Senate Republicans at their lunch today as the Trump administration and GOP leaders try to claw back $9.4 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting funding. Thune is planning the first procedural vote on the package later today. The deadline is Friday, and multiple senators still have outstanding concerns — particularly about the stakes of axing global public health money and the necessity of local news stations in rural areas. As of last night, it remained uncertain whether Thune had the votes, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. And senators will want specifics from Vought on which funds will be cut — after not getting them for weeks. On the other side: If the Senate amends but passes the rescissions, they’d have to go back to House Republicans, who are already steeling for a difficult, speedy process Thursday, per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. Big decision: Trump plans to apply pressure directly on senators this week, per Semafor’s Burgess Everett, and he’s already leveled public political threats against Republicans who don’t vote through cuts to PBS and NPR in particular. Funding fights: Beyond the immediate rescission fight, the government funding debate for the next fiscal year is heating up as House Appropriations subcommittees work through the 2026 numbers today. Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told Meredith and Katherine Tully-McManus that he and Senate counterpart Susan Collins (R-Maine) will likely go for topline numbers that are higher than the White House’s request. That could be anathema for fiscal hawks who reluctantly voted for the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. Read more from our colleagues on Inside Congress On the schedule for today: Mike Waltz, seeking second life in the administration, will have his Senate confirmation hearing as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. at 10 a.m. … House Armed Services will mark up the National Defense Authorization Act at 10 a.m. … House Education and Workforce will haul in leaders from Georgetown, CUNY and Berkeley on campus antisemitism at 10:15 a.m. … The Senate votes on Anthony Tata as a Defense undersecretary and Joseph Edlow as U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services director. … Speaker Mike Johnson will talk to the press at 10 a.m. … House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) and Texas Dems will hold a press conference at 11:15 a.m. POLITICO exclusive: “Crypto super PACs grow war chest ahead of key House votes,” by POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman: Fairshake, a super PAC group funded by cryptocurrency companies, “will enter the upcoming midterm elections with more than $140 million in the bank, according to new fundraising data shared first with POLITICO — a mammoth sum that now looms large over an effort to pass industry-friendly legislation in the House this week.”
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association:  
| | | | BEST OF THE REST IMMIGRATION SIREN: “ICE declares millions of undocumented immigrants ineligible for bond hearings,” by WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti and Carol Leonnig: “In a July 8 memo, Todd M. Lyons, acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, told officers that such immigrants should be detained ‘for the duration of their removal proceedings,’ which can take months or years. … In rare exceptions immigrants may be released on parole, but that decision will be up to an immigration officer, not a judge, he wrote.” More immigration news: An appeals court temporarily blocked the Trump administration from ending Temporary Protected Status for nearly 12,000 Afghans, many of whom would have otherwise become vulnerable to deportation yesterday, per the AP. … Government lawyers officially appealed a judge’s ruling that had limited ICE tactics in Southern California raids, per the LA Times. In the meantime, intense immigration enforcement operations in the Los Angeles area “have shown few signs of slowing,” the LA Times’ Hannah Fry and colleagues report. Last week’s marijuana farm raids led to 361 arrests and one death. EMPIRE STATE OF MIND: Andrew Cuomo officially launched an independent bid for NYC mayor after losing the Democratic primary, saying Dem nominee Zohran Mamdani had “no real solutions” for the city, per the FT. If Mamdani wins in November, his relationship with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, which has been peaceful since he triumphed in the primary, could be a tough test not only of state and city policies, but also of how big Democrats’ tent can be, POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman reports. FOR PETE’S SAKE: Investigations by two Pentagon offices are scrutinizing Ricky Buria and Tim Parlatore in the wake of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Signalgate controversy, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Jack Detsch scooped. The probes are examining whether Buria flouted security standards to get Hegseth on Signal and/or leaked information, and whether Parlatore took part in meetings above his clearance level. SEE NO EVIL: NASA announced that it won’t publish huge climate change reports, which are mandated by law, in a reversal of where the Trump administration had said they’d be publicly housed, AP’s Seth Borenstein reports. It’s now harder for the public to access them.
| | | | Curious how policy pros are staying ahead? Meet our Policy Intelligence Assistant—only available with a POLITICO Pro subscription. It combines POLITICO’s trusted reporting with advanced AI to deliver sharper insights, faster answers, and two powerful new report builders that help you turn intelligence into action. Ready to experience it for yourself? Sign up for a demo and get 30 days free—no strings attached. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | James Comer used a digital signature to send out letters and subpoena notices related to the investigation into Joe Biden’s use of an autopen. Kyrsten Sinema, no longer a senator or candidate, is nonetheless spending hundreds of thousands of dollars from her campaign committee on wellness services, luxury hotels, StubHub, wine and more for her security details. Donald Trump went to Howard Lutnick’s birthday dinner. Tim Burchett ran into Jamie Farr at the airport and spent time with him after a flight delay. Cory Mills is facing eviction from his $21,000-a-month D.C. property, with the landlord claiming he hasn’t paid rent. Mills says it’s because of problems with the payment processor. IN MEMORIAM — Frank Aukofer, a former Washington bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal and president of the National Press Club in 1978, has died, the organization announced. He “was one of the most respected regional reporters ever to cover the nation’s capital,” wrote Mike Balsamo. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The birth of the ‘Art of the Deal’: In May 1984, the cover of GQ featured a portrait of a handsome man in a suit, with bushy eyebrows and a mercurial smile, NYT’s Michael Grynbaum writes in his new book, “Empire of the Elite” ($29.99), out today. The headline read “SUCCESS: How Sweet It Is.” The man was Donald Trump. The issue did blockbuster sales — an early example of the “Trump bump” — and SI Newhouse, the billionaire honcho of Condé Nast, had a personal connection to the subject: Newhouse’s best friend since childhood was Roy Cohn, the notorious lawyer and fixer who was Trump's mentor in the political dark arts. Newhouse also owned Random House, so he rang up Trump and pitched him on writing a book. The result was “The Art of the Deal.” At the black-tie book party, held under the waterfall in the Trump Tower atrium, Trump greeted well-wishers with Newhouse standing by his side. Newhouse's daughter, Pamela, cringed when Grynbaum raised the subject with her. “I just don’t know whether Trump would have gotten that show” — “The Apprentice” — “but for the success of that book,” she said, ruefully. “So, my father, in a way, put Donald Trump on the map." CULINARY CORNER — The House’s overhaul of its dining options got a timeframe yesterday: It’ll unfold over the coming weeks and months, POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus reports. First to close will be the Longworth Dunkin’ on July 24, which will be replaced by Starbucks in phases in August and October. — Speaking of coffee, Puerto Rico Rep. Pablo José Hernández Rivera is hosting a “Puerto Rico Coffee Showcase” alongside Reps. William Timmons (R-S.C.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Nellie Pou (D-N.J.) in the Rayburn foyer today. BOOK CLUB — Former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) is publishing his first fiction book (and the first for the Fox News Books imprint). “The Color of Death,” ($30) written with Christopher Greyson will release on Aug. 26 and centers on a South Carolina DA investigating a murder — drawing on Gowdy’s own prosecutorial experience. OUT AND ABOUT — Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America held a victory party last night at the Capitol Hill Club to celebrate the defunding of Planned Parenthood through Medicaid that was included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Marjorie Dannenfelser, Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) all gave remarks. SPOTTED: Reps. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.), Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), John Rose (R-Tenn.), Brandon Gill (R-Texas), Mark Messmer (R-Ind.), Bob Onder (R-Mo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Michael Baumgartner (R-Wash.), Mike Kennedy (R-Utah), John McGuire (R-Va.) and Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.). — SPOTTED at Rep. Dan Newhouse’s (R-Wash.) 70th birthday party: Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Mike Bost (R-Ill.), August Pfluger (R-Texas), Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and Ron Estes (R-Kan.), Jess Carter, Phil Hardy, Jordan Evich, Mike Williams, Rocky Fox and Kedrin Simms Brachman. TRANSITIONS — Matilda Bress is joining Leaders We Deserve as comms director. She previously was senior writer at American Bridge 21st Century. … Dickinson Wright is adding to its political law team with Jonathan Koch as a member and Lindsey Specht as of counsel. Koch is general counsel to the Michigan GOP and a former Trump and RNC lawyer. Specht previously was senior attorney for nonprofit organization and political law compliance at Stand Together and Americans for Prosperity, and is an FEC alum. … Michael Burley is now senior director of external branch affairs for Rubin, Turnbull & Associates. He most recently worked for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and is a Trump White House alum. WEDDINGS — Timothy Nerozzi, foreign affairs reporter at the Washington Examiner, and Diana Glebova, White House reporter at the N.Y. Post, got married June 28 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. They first met working at the Daily Caller in 2021 and reconnected via the D.C. media world. Pic — Amanda Carl, who leads comms for Google DeepMind, and Adam Pratt, who leads issues and public policy comms for IBM, got married June 28 at Glass Hill by the Blue Ridge Mountains in southwestern Virginia. They met when both worked in prior comms and PR positions at IBM. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lizzy Guyton, a founding partner of South and Hill Strategies and a Charlie Baker alum, and Tim Johnson, managing partner of CSQ Realty, recently welcomed Grace Amalia Johnson, who joins big sister Colette. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Chris LaCivita … WaPo’s Paul Kane … Semafor’s Max Tani … JPMorgan Chase’s Heather Higginbottom … CMS’ Chris Krepich … Bloomberg’s Jodi Schneider … Tia Bogeljic of Rep. Joe Neguse’s (D-Colo.) office … National Association of Realtors’ Kathryn Crenshaw … POLITICO’s Rebecca Moore, Adrian Wyatt and Peter Behr … Eun Kim … Aspen Institute’s Elliot Gerson … Naomie Pierre-Louis … Ericka Perryman … Andrew Usyk … Helen Hare … Erica Fein … Susan McCue … Nate Gaspar … Amanda Fernandez … former Reps. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) … Electric Power Research Institute’s Arshad Mansoor … Rob Ellsworth of the Majority Group … Arianna Huffington … David Miliband (6-0) … Heath Tarbert … Svetlana Legetic … American Conservation Coalition’s Kiley Crawford … Séverine de Lartigue … Alex Lasry Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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