| | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
Donald Trump said he likely wouldn't fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after reports to the contrary. | Alex Brandon/AP | FED UP: As conservative furor about Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaches a fever pitch, President Donald Trump informally polled far-right House Republicans last night on whether he should fire the central bank leader, CBS’ Jennifer Jacobs and colleagues scooped. They were largely in favor and said Trump indicated that he would can Powell, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill scooped. He even showed them a letter that had already been drafted to fire Powell, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Colby Smith report. And one White House official told Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove that the move was likely. But but but: After all that bombshell news rattled financial markets late this morning, Trump pulled back in the Oval Office. Though he confirmed the conversation with lawmakers, the president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’ll fire Powell. “We’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump told reporters, unless Powell “has to leave” because of “fraud,” nodding to a controversy over Fed headquarters renovations. The president indicated that he’d probably wait to replace Powell until his term ends next year. More from POLITICO’s Victoria Guida and colleagues Will he stay or will he go? If Trump does reverse course and ax Powell — whom he has repeatedly attacked for not lowering interest rates — it would be unprecedented in modern American history. Financial markets have repeatedly shown that major economic upheaval could result from a president interfering in the independence of the central bank. And it would almost certainly trigger a legal battle, since Fed chairs can’t legally be fired without cause. The Supreme Court’s conservatives reinforced that this spring even as they greenlit presidential authority to fire all kinds of other independent executive-branch officials. On the Hill: House Financial Services Republicans were scheduled to meet with Powell this evening, but it’s now been canceled — due to votes, they were told, per Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller. THE BACKLASH: “Many Republicans I’ve been talking to over the past few days have predicted that Trump would do something dramatic to distract from Epstein,” Puck’s Leigh Ann Caldwell wrote regarding the fire-Powell campaign. And though Trump appears to be holding off on Powell, a groundswell of backlash from both base and swing voters — over the Jeffrey Epstein files and the GOP megabill — continues to dominate headlines. Nothing to see here: Facing significant anger from online MAGA supporters, Trump bashed them explicitly in a new Truth Social post: Democrats’ “new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bullshit,’ hook, line, and sinker,” Trump wrote, saying the “weaklings” were falling for conspiracy theories (which top members of his administration have long stoked). “I don’t want their support anymore!” From the Oval, he added, “I lost a lot of faith in certain people.” Trouble in the manosphere: Laura Loomer warned that she didn’t want the issue to “consume his presidency” if Trump doesn’t address it, POLITICO’s Adam Wren and Gigi Ewing report. And this kind of rupture could spell trouble for Trump among young men who are already questioning the gaps between his campaign and his presidency, CNN’s Steve Contorno reports. One 21-year-old Michigan fan of Theo Von tells him: “I’m a little iffy now … One of the things I primarily voted for was ‘No new wars,’ and unfortunately, that has been a big lie to my face.” To wit: The Telegraph’s Ben Farmer reports on new data that shows “Trump has overseen nearly as many air strikes in the first five months of his second term as Joe Biden launched in his entire presidency.” Big, blond and beautiful: Will Trump and Republicans benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act? There are warning signs in new CNN polling, which finds that Americans oppose the signature legislation 61 percent to 39 percent. And big midterm money for Democrats is coming from Battleground Alliance PAC, a new group supported by labor that intends to spend $50 million to boost House candidates, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein scooped. Focusing on 37 districts that Dems want to flip, they’re focusing first and foremost on the megabill. Reality check: Despite those headwinds for Republicans, CNN’s Harry Enten notes that Democrats are well behind their polling marks at this point in the 2018 cycle. The map is more difficult for Dems than it was in that wave year, with plenty of GOP opportunities too. And those conservative young men angry about Epstein and foreign wars aren’t exactly clamoring to join the other party. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: The U.S. vaping industry and tens of thousands of small businesses are at risk. A Biden-era task force and rogue FDA and CBP bureaucrats are blocking all flavored vapes from entering the U.S. These bureaucrats are undermining President Trump's promises to protect our children from illicit vapes and save flavored vaping.
President Trump: Tell the FDA and CBP to stop banning vapes – vaping voters and small businesses are counting on you.
Learn more. | | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. DEMOCRACY WATCH: Powered by Trump’s longstanding lies about 2020 election fraud, the administration has undertaken multiple bids to request voter information and look at election equipment, alarming state and local officials from both parties, WaPo’s Patrick Marley and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez scooped. At least two states, of nine that have been asked, have given voter rolls to the Justice Department. DOJ has asked for other voter information sharing from states. “The most unusual activity is happening in Colorado … where a well-connected consultant who says he is working with the White House is asking county clerks whether they will allow the federal government or a third party to physically examine their election equipment.” Related read: In his second term, Trump has increasingly affixed the label of “evil” to Democrats, journalists and others he sees as domestic enemies. NYT’s Peter Baker writes that the rhetoric “seeds the ground to justify all sorts of actions that would normally be considered extreme or out of bounds.” During his first term, he used the word only once in a domestic capacity, but has already deployed it 11 times since returning to office. 2. TODAY’S BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS: Trump will sign the HALT Fentanyl Act into law at 3 p.m., CNN’s Alayna Treene reports. The bipartisan legislation levies tougher punishments on fentanyl traffickers and classifies copycat drugs as Schedule I. … And as Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa meets with Trump, the country announced $17 billion in investments in the U.S., including a $7 billion Boeing/GE/Gulf Air deal, Reuters’ Steve Holland reports. 3. TRAIL MIX: New Hampshire’s open-seat Senate race got another Republican entrant as state Sen. Dan Innis launched a bid, WMUR-TV’s Arielle Mitropoulos scooped. A professor and former congressional candidate, Innis will compete against Scott Brown in the primary, already seeking to align himself with Trump. Poll position: Democrat Abigail Spanberger has a big lead in the Virginia governor’s race, ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, 49 percent to 37 percent, in a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll. Race for the House: In a competitive California district, Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains has kicked off a Democratic campaign against GOP incumbent David Valadao, per The Bakersfield Californian’s Peter Segall. As a doctor, she’s focused on Medicaid cuts in a district that will be hit hard by Republicans’ megabill. Cash dash: Democrat Jessica Killin pulled in more than $750,000 in the first 24 hours of her uphill Colorado Springs congressional campaign — a record for any challenger this cycle. … Facing primary challengers, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) raised a field-leading $1.6 million in the second quarter, per POLITICO’s Liz Crampton and Jessica Piper. 4. RFK JR. IN THE SPOTLIGHT: In a major shakeup at HHS, chief of staff Heather Flick Melanson and deputy chief of staff Hannah Anderson have left the agency, Bloomberg’s Rachel Cohrs Zhang and Madison Muller scooped. Matt Buckham is taking over as acting chief to Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had lost confidence in the previous leadership, CNN’s Adam Cancryn reports. President Kennedy? An organizing call with MAHA grassroots supporters put together by Kennedy’s PAC has stirred chatter about whether he’s eyeing a 2028 presidential bid, Axios’ Brittany Gibson scooped.
| | | | Did you know Playbook goes beyond the newsletter—with powerhouse new co-hosts at the mic? Tune in to The Playbook Podcast every weekday for exclusive intel and sharp analysis on Trump’s Washington, straight from Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns. Start listening now. | | | | | 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: “US considered charging Minnesota judges, lawyers in immigration crackdown, sources say,” by Reuters’ Sarah Lynch: “In February, FBI agents in Minneapolis opened a preliminary inquiry into whether local judges and defense attorneys obstructed immigration enforcement by requesting virtual hearings [to shield defendants from immigration arrests], and the concept was also pitched to law enforcement officials in Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. … Reuters could not determine whether the probe is ongoing.” More immigration long reads: The Atlantic’s Stephanie McCrummen details how the Trump administration is systematically targeting undocumented children, some of them longtime U.S. residents, much more than in his first term. Officials have rolled back a number of protections and supports for minors, and expanded detention in federal shelters or private facilities looks likely. … And WaPo’s Danielle Villasana and colleagues have the story of Kataleya Nativi Baca, a transgender Honduran woman who decided to self-deport under Trump after four years in the U.S. 6. RESCISSION LATEST: Senate Democrats are considering amendments to the rescissions package that would seek to save foreign aid funding for international climate and clean-energy initiatives, POLITICO’s E&E News’ Andres Picon reports. Success may be difficult, but they at least want to pressure Republicans on yet another energy rollback. Meanwhile, the rescissions debate has undercut Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who has yet to break through to her colleagues on fears that it will undermine the government funding process, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. The situation has left some GOP senators concerned that she’ll opt out of a reelection bid, though Collins says she plans to run again. 7. THE COMING STORM: “NOAA was developing tool to help communities prepare for extreme rainfall. Trump officials stopped it,” by WaPo’s Sarah Kaplan: “The release of Atlas 15 had been long awaited by civil engineers, regional planners and other groups that use NOAA’s precipitation frequency estimates to develop regulations and design infrastructure. … But work on Atlas 15’s climate projections has been on hold for months after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ordered a review of volume two this spring.” 8. TRADING PLACES: Even as he ramps up trade threats against allies, Trump has grown more dovish on trade with China, seeking a summit and trade agreement with President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard and Mackenzie Hawkins report. The private shift has worried hawkish policymakers in the administration. Meanwhile, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto confirmed that Jakarta had struck a deal with the U.S., per the NYT. Not so copacetic: Other countries are struggling through difficult negotiations with the U.S. Washington has now asked South Korea to create a massive investment fund for American manufacturing, The Chosun Daily’s Choi Eun-kyung and colleagues scooped. And EU negotiators are in town today to scramble toward an agreement before Aug. 1, but they’re worried that U.S. counterparts don’t feel the same urgency, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports. The impact: If Trump’s trade wars really hit full throttle next month — and other countries impose counter-measures — U.S. businesses fear they’ll suffer damage, POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers reports. And though intense tariff effects on the U.S. economy, like inflation, haven’t appeared yet in a big way, economists still expect they will, NYT’s Ben Casselman reports. They just aren’t sure exactly when.
| | | | A message from The Vapor Technology Association: Nearly 500,000 Americans die annually from smoking cigarettes. 67% of Trump voters say government should promote vapes to help Americans quit smoking – and all Americans need President Trump to save flavored vaping now.
VTA stands with President Trump in cracking down on the bad actors who sell vapes targeting youth. However, a Biden-era FDA task force is out of control – wasting CBP resources on vapes, rather than human traffickers – banning vapes from the market. The vape blockade is a de facto ban on flavored vapor products nationwide, which is already shutting down small businesses.
It's time to protect this multibillion-dollar American industry and stand up for American adults' freedom to vape.
President Trump, stop the bureaucrats from undermining your promise to save flavored vaping. Don't let Biden's task force fulfill his plan to destroy legitimate businesses and hurt American consumers. American vapers are counting on you.
Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump is due to grow $93 million wealthier from new memecoins this week. Donald Trump Jr. and Omeed Malik rang the opening bell on the New York Stock Exchange as GrabAGun went public. Barack and Michelle Obama laughed off conspiracy theories about them getting divorced: “There hasn’t been one moment in our marriage where I’ve thought about quitting on my man,” she said. SPOTTED: Tim Ryan talking with British PM Keir Starmer at the Palace of Westminster yesterday evening. Pic SPORTS BLINK — “Trump’s Turnberry faces logistical hurdles for Open return,” by AP’s Doug Ferguson in Portrush, Northern Ireland: “Mark Darbon, who took over at the R&A this year from Martin Slumbers, said Turnberry had not been taken off the list of potential Open sites, but transportation and other issues had to be addressed.” TRANSITION — John Nagle is now a federal policy manager at Pacific Legal Foundation. He most recently was a legislative assistant for Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and is a Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions alum. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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