| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On the Playbook Podcast this morning, Jack and POLITICO’s White House reporter — and resident immigration expert — Myah Ward discuss “Alligator Alcatraz,” and why Donald Trump is happy to be headed back to Florida today.
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| Good Tuesday morning, and welcome to July. This is Jack Blanchard, wondering how we can possibly be halfway through 2025 already. What just happened? You don’t need Playbook to tell you that these have been an extraordinary six months of politics, even by this country’s uniquely high standards. So start your day with a whirlwind tour through the dramatic reelection of Speaker Mike Johnson on Jan. 3 … Trump’s Mar-a-Lago threats to Canada and Greenland … Joe Biden’s stunning last-minute pardons … Trump’s indoor inauguration … The “days of thunder” … The Jan. 6 pardons ... The madness of DOGE … The grift of $Trump … … Saying hello to “Big Balls” … And farewell to USAID … “The Riviera of the Middle East” … “Have you said thank you once?” … The 1798 Alien Enemies Act … The El Salvador megaprison … Signalgate … Liberation Day … The bond market meltdown … The TACO tariff U-turns … “Vladimir, STOP!” … Farewell to Mike Waltz … The Qatari jet plane … The Biden “cover-up” … Trump vs. Harvard … Trump vs. Elon … Murders in Minnesota … The military in LA … The military in D.C. … The military in Iran …The “big, beautiful bill” … and on it goes. And now take a breath: There are nearly 43 months of this presidency still to go. Good luck! In today’s Playbook … — Trump goes to war with Elon Musk … again. — The “big, beautiful bill” crawls through a rocky night in the Senate. — The president heads to Florida to talk immigration with the ’gators.
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Elon Musk is once again going after President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill." | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images | BILL WATCH: After an epic all-night session in the Senate, the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” is creeping toward the finish line in the chamber as party leaders continue to work on potential holdouts. Senators have now hit more than 20 hours of vote-a-rama and blocked several dozen amendments — and it’s still not clear when the end will come. Familiar GOP rows over Medicaid and SNAP cuts; taxes on wind and solar farms; state-level AI regulation; and the bill’s impact on rural hospitals have dominated the night. Get up to speed with the latest via POLITICO's Inside Congress liveblog. Rebel watch: Once again, moderates Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine are the politicians most likely to upset the GOP apple cart as we head into the final hours of debate. To wit: “In a potential sign of just how dire [Majority Leader John] Thune’s whip count was looking in the wee hours, the majority leader huddled in his office with Sen. Rand Paul, who’s long said he would be a ‘no’ on the bill over its debt-ceiling hike,” our Inside Congress colleagues write. Elon watch: But perhaps the most significant development of the night has been the eruption once again of the Trump-Musk feud that so enthralled D.C. last month. After a three-week hiatus from politics, Musk has spent much of the past 24 hours hammering away at the bill on X, renewing his criticisms from early June — and now Trump is hitting back hard. Money where your mouth is: Musk’s angry posting had spilled over into something potentially much more serious for Trump when he started directly threatening the GOP. Republicans who back Trump’s bill after preaching spending cuts will face Musk-funded opponents in primaries, he warned, and see their faces emblazoned on “Pinocchio” posters drawn up by the world’s richest man. Conversely, Musk vowed to help fund serial GOP rebel Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-Ky.) reelection effort. If other would-be-Republican-holdouts take all this seriously, might it embolden them too to vote against party lines? And there’s more: This all followed Musk’s pledge yesterday evening to launch a new political party, which he dubbed “the America Party,” if the bill becomes law. Goodness only knows if he’s serious, but he continued to post about it through the night. Trump bites back: Shortly before 1 a.m., Trump finally hit back with a long social media post of his own, seeking (again) to frame Musk’s opposition as a bid to cling on to EV subsidies. And the president rustled up a few threats of his own. “Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far,” Trump wrote, “and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” Oof. Keep watching, Washington: As we’ve seen, these social media feuds can escalate pretty fast. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Not just Elon with the attacks: Protect Our Care, a Democratic health care advocacy group, is preparing a seven-figure ad blitz in 10 House districts, attacking vulnerable Republicans who vote for the GOP tax bill passage, POLITICO’s Elena Schneider writes in. The ads, which won’t air until after the megabill passes the House, hammer Republicans for “the biggest cut to Medicaid in history.” Where they’ll see it: The ads are set to launch in the following districts, if they vote for the bill: David Schweikert (Ariz.), David Valadao (Calif.), Young Kim (Calif.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.) and Rob Bresnahan (Pa.). Watch the ad
| | | | A message from bp: bp supports ~300,000 US jobs. Like the construction, engineering and technology jobs that built our new centralized processing facilities in Texas. These help us produce more natural gas while also reducing our operational emissions. See all the ways bp is investing in America. | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | GATOR RAID: Trump is headed to the Florida Everglades today to celebrate the opening of a controversial detention center where thousands of undocumented migrants will be held. The opening of “Alligator Alcatraz” — a name coined by the state’s Republican leadership, not the tabloid press — marks the next stage in Trump’s mass deportation program, the first in a series of swiftly constructed holding facilities where undocumented migrants will be sent. “The cruelty is the point,” as the liberal-minded folks like to say — and in the case of “Alligator Alcatraz” they are largely on the money. All deportation plans require holding facilities, of course, but the detention center at this disused airstrip near Miami will be like no other. In a few short weeks, the Florida GOP has built a vast makeshift campsite upon a tropical swamp, a sea of tents and trailers where thousands of people will be held in sweltering conditions. DO RON RON: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says the site has been picked for its solitude, making it a cost-effective solution from a security perspective. But strikingly, Republican leadership at both state and national level are playing up the harshness of the location. “There’s not much waiting for 'em other than alligators and pythons,” Florida state AG James Uthmeier said, of anyone trying to escape. DeSantis and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt have both made similar comments … and Trump will surely lean in hard today as well. Like it or not, there are real policy reasons behind this approach. Trump’s (under-reported) success in reducing border crossings has largely been a triumph of deterrence, and part of the White House’s strategy is to keep sending a severe message to would-be-migrants about what awaits them if they travel. Speaking on the Playbook Podcast, my POLITICO colleague Myah Ward says the administration also hopes to scare existing undocumented migrants into self-deporting — still the cheapest and easiest way for the government to get them out of the country. But but but: There are plenty of unsavory factors at play here as well. Large parts of the MAGA base lap up these displays of brutality — and of course, ambitious politicians love to play to the crowd. (Indeed, the Florida GOP is literally selling “Alligator Alcatraz” T-shirts and other merch to its anti-immigration fans.) Stories about migrants being housed in luxury hotels have long angered the right, meaning plenty of Trump supporters see facilities like this as a long-overdue correction. Setting the trap: What we’re also seeing here is classic dividing-line politics, where a party pushes its position on a core issue further and further toward one extreme in order to force its opponent to take a stance. Democrats have been trying to avoid talking about immigration all summer — but get ready for sky-high levels of outrage if this facility is as unpleasant as is feared. At which point Republicans can start trotting out their lines about “the party of open borders,” and all the usual stereotypes will be reinforced. And guess what? Much of the attention would turn from Medicaid cuts. None of which addresses the core complaint of critics — the basic lack of humanity in keeping people in barely habitable conditions. At her White House press briefing yesterday, Leavitt said it would be a good thing to have “illegal murderers and rapists and heinous criminals in a detention facility surrounded by alligators.” The problem there is that very few of the undocumented migrants being detained by ICE have actually committed violent crimes, as CBS reports. (Also, deploying man-eating reptiles as part of your policy platform feels a little … medieval, to say the least.)
| | | And there’s more: Local opposition to this project stretches beyond the mistreatment of migrants. The Everglades are one of the wonders of America, and there are strong environmental reasons why this air strip has been left to gather dust. Famously, an ambitious 20th century plan to transform it into one of the world’s largest air hubs got kiboshed over the environmental impact. This time, DeSantis simply called a state of emergency and used special powers to seize the strip. Very much the MAGA technique du jour. Brace, brace: Remember too that the row over “Alligator Alcatraz” is just the start of what's coming down the tracks. The vast amount of money set to be poured into border security thanks to the “big, beautiful bill” is going to mark a step change for ICE’s capabilities — with thousands more agents hired, and large numbers of camps erected around the U.S. Stephen Miller’s grand plan has only just begun. From the horse’s mouth: “Everything else [in the BBB debate] — the CBO score, the proper baseline, the minutiae of the Medicaid policy — is immaterial compared to the ICE money and immigration enforcement provisions,” VP JD Vance wrote on X last night. How the day pans out: Trump will be chatting to press on the South Lawn ahead of his departure at 7.15 a.m. … We’ll see him walking the Everglades at around 10 a.m. … Then holding talks with local officials just after 11 a.m. … And then heading back to the White House in the early afternoon. Joining him will be DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, DeSantis, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds and one or two others.
| | | | At the Aspen Ideas Festival, the world’s most influential minds — across business, technology, finance, media, science, and public policy — gather for bold conversation and uncommon access. 2025 sold out. Registration now open for June 25-July 1, 2026. An unmissable gathering. Learn more and buy a pass. | | | | | THE ECONOMY, STUPID FED UP: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. Eastern after taking yet more heat from Trump. Leavitt actually held up a handwritten note from the president yesterday on live TV, decrying Powell for not lowering interest rates. But there’s no sign of the Fed chief backing down — and any mention of his view of the inflationary risk of tariffs will be pored over again today. Speaking of tariffs: Trump’s self-declared July 9 deadline for striking a panoply of trade deals is now just eight days away — and the big question will be whether Trump grants extensions to countries that still have pending negotiations, or raises rates back to “Liberation Day” levels. Trade updates: The FT reports some sort of interim deal with India is close … But Trump is dangling the threat of fresh tariffs against Japan, venting on Truth Social that Tokyo was refusing to purchase sufficient U.S. rice. … And the EU will acquiesce to near-universal 10 percent tariffs from the U.S. — but want the U.S. to lower its levies on autos and metals in return, Bloomberg’s Jorge Valero and Alberto Nardelli scooped. By the numbers: As we reach the year’s halfway point, it’s worth noting the worst predictions about the impact of Trump’s tariffs have not come true. Top stock indexes closed out the second quarter at all-time highs, bouncing way back from the springtime tariff slump, and there’s generally more optimism around, WSJ’s Krystal Hur reports. But but but: Some observers think it’s still too early to see the real hit from tariffs … and the dollar has still weakened more than 10 percent this year, its worst start since 1973, NYT’s Joe Rennison notes.
| | | BEST OF THE REST FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — 2026 watch: Democrats are intently focused on recruiting former Gov. Roy Cooper to the open-seat race in North Carolina following Sen. Thom Tillis’ decision not to run again, P OLITICO’s Elena Schneider reports. Cooper’s personal brand could give the party a strong chance and open up the floodgates of “unprecedented” national donor money — though flipping a North Carolina Senate seat blue may be difficult even for him. But Cooper is now “leaning toward” a run, Axios’ Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam scooped. Even more frozen is the early GOP field to replace Tillis, where all eyes are on Lara Trump, CNN’s Dianne Gallagher and Kristen Holmes report. More on the midterms: Michigan Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow pulled in more than $2.1 million in Q2 for her Senate campaign. … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has brought on Chris LaCivita as a senior adviser to his reelect. … Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) officially said he’ll run for South Dakota governor, per the Sioux Falls Argus Leader’s Dominik Dausch. … Democrat Colin Allred formally launched his Texas Senate campaign. … Iowa Democrat Kevin Techau suspended his congressional campaign, citing poor fundraising, per the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller. … Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of Nebraska’s 2nd District to leaning Democratic as GOP Rep. Don Bacon retires. THE PURGE? The State Department had originally set today as its deadline to start carrying out mass layoffs. But with a Supreme Court decision still pending on whether to lift a lower court’s block on job reductions across multiple agencies, State employees are waiting for clarity. What is happening today: The end of USAID. What little is left of the foreign aid agency has been folded into the State Department — and State plans to announce its successor, the pointedly titled America First office, this week, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer reports. USAID got sharp farewells for its last official day yesterday from Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bono via video. Obama called the dismantling “a travesty,” complaining USAID undertakes “some of the most important work happening anywhere in the world.” And referring to his PEPFAR program’s impact, Bush said: “Is it in our national interests that 25 million people who would have died now live? I think it is — and so do you.” Stunning: A new study published in the Lancet estimates that USAID saved 92 million lives from 2001 to 2021, and that its demolition could kill 14 million people in only five years through 2030, NBC’s Aria Bendix reports. That would make the end of USAID by far the most impactful thing that anyone in Washington has done this year. The Trump administration insists that most foreign aid funding isn’t in America’s interest, and that it largely shouldn’t be the responsibility of the U.S. The analysis even landed a Daily Mail tabloid headline. Related read: The NYT Magazine’s Emily Bazelon and Mattathias Schwartz have a well-timed feature about Amir Ali, who as a new judge this year handled the first major USAID case in federal court. It’s a striking portrait of the intense pressures on the judiciary under Trump. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the White House on Monday for talks, per the AP. Meanwhile, Trump officially rescinded U.S. sanctions on Syria, a major shift in policy that aims to give the country’s new government a chance to grow, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. WHAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS WATCHING: Trump signed a new memorandum to undo Joe Biden’s softer approach to Cuba, bringing back hard-line travel restrictions and sanctions. The Miami Herald’s Nora Gámez Torres reports the U.S. plans to punish foreign companies that do business with the Cuban military. WHAT MAMDANI IS WATCHING: NYC will release the first round of its ranked-choice voting results in last week’s mayoral primary at noon, further cementing Zohran Mamdani’s victory. CAPITULATION CORNER: Paramount may be close to striking a settlement with Trump over the president’s claims that CBS’ “60 Minutes” inappropriately edited a Kamala Harris interview, according to a new filing that said negotiations were “advanced,” NYT’s Ben Mullin reports. First in Playbook — Meet Drew Ensign. The lawyer who has become the legal face of the Trump administration’s efforts to deport Venezuelans to a Salvadoran megaprison without due process doesn’t have the typical MAGA profile, Michael Linhorst reports in a big POLITICO Magazine profile. Those who knew him at NYU Law School or Latham & Watkins are surprised by his emergence in this role, pushing the boundaries of defying court orders. But — if he avoids contempt proceedings — Ensign “may have simply found a different way to the top” in the age of Trump. (He didn’t respond for comment.)
| | | | Curious how policy pros are staying ahead? Meet our Policy Intelligence Assistant—only available with a POLITICO Pro subscription. It combines POLITICO’s trusted reporting with advanced AI to deliver sharper insights, faster answers, and two powerful new report builders that help you turn intelligence into action. Ready to experience it for yourself? Sign up for a demo and get 30 days free—no strings attached. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Alex Bruesewitz and former Miss Nevada Carolina Urrea are newly engaged. Ron Chernow and “Hamilton” will receive the National Constitution Center’s 37th annual Liberty Medal. ALWAYS BE MONETIZING: Like tick follows tock … Trump has himself a new side hustle. The president announced last night that he’s selling limited-edition “Trump Fragrances” — perfume for women, cologne for men — that are pitched as “all about Winning, Strength, and Success.” Derek Guy notes they retail at a bargain $250 a bottle, which is certainly a win for somebody. UNRELATED STAT OF THE DAY: Just 58 percent of U.S. adults are now extremely or very proud to be American — an all-time low in Gallup polling. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The American Economic Liberties Project is adding Alvaro Bedoya as a senior adviser. He previously was an FTC commissioner who resigned after refusing to accept Trump’s firing of him, which he said was illegal. — Democracy Forward is staffing up its legal team with several new additions: Joshua Salzman, Yenisey Rodríguez and Nathaniel Zelinsky as senior counsels, Amy Vickery and Anisha Hindocha as oversight attorneys, Simon Brewer as a senior staff attorney and Joe Shantz as senior policy counsel. TRANSITIONS — James Czerniawski is now head of emerging tech policy at Consumer Choice Center. He previously was lead tech policy analyst at Americans for Prosperity. … Gabriel Uy is now national coalitions director at the DNC. He previously was deputy director of intergovernmental affairs and public engagement for VP Kamala Harris. … Paul Wight is joining DLA Piper’s projects and energy practice in D.C. to lead the energy regulatory team. He previously was senior legal adviser at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. … … Megan Echtenkamp is now briefing book coordinator for the deputy secretary at DHS. She most recently was director of external affairs at Florida Young Republicans. … Alana Conant is joining Gambit Strategies as VP of digital strategy. She previously was digital candidate services director at the DSCC. … Natalia Vanegas is joining the National Council of Nonprofits as VP of comms. She previously was assistant secretary for public affairs at HUD. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kayleigh McEnany, co-host of”Outnumbered” on Fox News, and Sean Gilmartin, a former MLB pitcher, welcomed Avery Grace on Wednesday. She joins big siblings Blake and Nash. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) … Reps. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.) and Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) … Deputy OMB Director Dan Bishop … NBC’s Kristen Welker … Sally Quinn … Neal Patel of the Alpine Group … Guy Cecil … Brett Zongker of the Library of Congress … Bob Dinneen … Washingtonian’s Susan Farkas … Mike Czin of SKDK … Greta Lundeberg … North American Millers’ Association’s Jane DeMarchi … Grace Koh … POLITICO’s Timothy Cama, Vali Mansouri, Jason Plautz and Helen Dubas … AJ Roshfeld … Bloomberg’s Olivia Alafriz … Molly Simpson of Spirit of America … John Giesser … National Journal’s Kirk Bado … Abby Laver of Sen. Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) office … Matt Hickam Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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