| | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today’s Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Megan Messerly talk about the emerging dividing line that is defining politics in both parties, the newest tranche of Donald Trump’s tariffs and the prospects for a Trump meeting with Vladimir Putin.
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| Good morning. I’m Adam Wren. Have any tips/news/comments? Send them my way. In today’s Playbook … — From Gaza to tariffs to mid-cycle gerrymandering, there’s a throughline animating American politics right now: Institutionalists vs. disruptors. — First in Playbook: Does Trump’s gerrymander-everywhere push mean the end of the blue state Republicans who made the House majority? Jonathan Martin has the latest. — Overnight, Trump’s wave of new tariffs came into effect — and U.S. trading partners are still trying to figure out the details.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | WALK THE LINE: On the surface, three of the biggest stories in American politics right now have little in common: Israel and Gaza amid the humanitarian crisis there, the mid-cycle gerrymandering arms race and Trump’s massive wave of tariffs that smashed ashore the global economy overnight. But there is a throughline: Right now, in both the Democratic and Republican parties, the most salient dividing line isn’t left or right versus center, nor is it progressive or conservative versus centrist, nor even “abundance” versus populism. It’s the divide between institutionalists and disruptors. And at this moment, those who want to bring a shock of disruption to the political system are on the march; the old ways are falling, and in their place, a new politics is forming. A NEW DEM LITMUS TEST?: Images of starving children amid the destruction in Gaza have stirred the conscience and scrambled traditional partisan allegiances. Playbook recently covered the divides within MAGA over the issue. Now let’s dig into what’s happening on the other side of the aisle. Support for Gaza — and opposition to how Israel has waged war — appears to be breaking through as Democrats’ new foreign policy litmus test ahead of the 2026 midterms. While it’s an issue important in its own right, it’s also more broadly symbolic of a candidate’s willingness to challenge the status quo and show that they’re a disruptor or outsider. Today, as the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee-led trip of freshmen Democratic members of Congress continues — and as those freshmen prepare to eventually meet with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu — the divide in the party is only sharpening. In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama spoke to AIPAC. Now, in summer 2025, the Obama admin alums who host the influential “Pod Save America” podcast are urging Democrats to steer clear of the group: Jon Favreau, Obama’s former chief speechwriter, recently said that Dems should no longer take money from AIPAC or vote to fund military support for Israel. “There has to be a total mindset change in the Democratic Party,” said his co-host, Tommy Vietor, who was spokesperson for Obama’s National Security Council. “When the war ends, we are not going back to the pre-October 7 status quo.” A clip of their exchange has grabbed more than 4 million views on X. “There is certainly a split within the party,” Vietor tells Playbook. “I think it’s rapidly evolving and inexorably moving to a more progressive place. … I suspect this will be a big issue — maybe the most important foreign policy issue [in 2028].”
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Abdul El-Sayed stands on one end of the spectrum for Democrats, telling Playbook that Gaza has become a "Rorschach test" for the party. | Carlos Osorio/AP | THE MICHIGAN MATCH-UP: Michigan’s sharply contested Democratic Senate primary offers a microcosm of the dynamics writ large on what could be the key foreign policy question within the Democratic Party right now. Across the field’s three leading candidates — Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed — the range of views are on full display. The candidate most vocally opposed to Israel’s conduct in Gaza is El-Sayed, a charismatic doctor with progressive views in the vein of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has endorsed him. He’s billed himself as an outsider who wants to shake up the system — not just on Israel-Gaza, but on a whole host of issues ranging from Medicare for All to universal pre-K. To El-Sayed, a candidate’s position on Gaza is effectively a symbol of something greater. “Gaza, unfortunately, has become a Rorschach test for values,” El-Sayed tells Playbook. “Do your morals apply anywhere and everywhere?” At the other end of the Democratic spectrum is Stevens — a fourth-term House member whose Senate bid is reportedly favored by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, and who counts Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement to her campaign. Stevens holds traditional Democratic views on the U.S. special relationship with Israel. In 2022, AIPAC-tied groups spent millions to back her in a competitive primary against fellow Dem Rep. Andy Levin. In May, Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) told Playbook that she was concerned the Senate primary could become another “proxy battle” between Michigan’s robust “uncommitted” movement and AIPAC. Last week, Stevens said in a statement that “the starvation and suffering of children and families in Gaza is devastating, and food and aid need to be allowed into the region immediately,” adding that she “wants the war to end and for Hamas to return the remaining hostages to their families and surrender.” And somewhere between those two is McMorrow, who is fashioning herself as a new kind of Democrat — someone who’s an outsider in bearing, adept at working the new media landscape and driving a message even while being broadly acceptable to institutionalists. She recently said the U.S. must stop sending offensive weapons to Netanyahu, called for Hamas to release the hostages and advocated a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Asked for comment about the field and this story, a spox for AIPAC seemed to signal the group’s preference. “During her tenure in Congress, Rep. Stevens has been a strong leader in advancing the U.S.-Israel relationship,” they told Playbook. Stevens and McMorrow declined interviews with Playbook. But spokespeople for both McMorrow and El-Sayed said the candidates face questions about the war at most campaign stops. What do voters think of this? “On the Democratic side, this is absolutely an issue that Democratic voters are attuned to,” Richard Czuba, the noted Michigan pollster and founder of the Glengariff Group, tells Playbook. He has been in the field with private statewide surveys on this matter in recent weeks. And he says that the public’s views on this are nuanced: “Voters are outraged by what Hamas did. Voters are outraged by what they're seeing happening in Gaza. Those things are not mutually exclusive.” The view from the right: Asked about divisions with the Democratic primary, former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican who avoided a primary challenger and earned Trump’s endorsement, told Playbook in an interview: “This is not your grandmother's party anymore.” Of his potential opponents, he added: “They’ll say, ‘no, no, no, I'm a centrist.’ There's not one of them that's a centrist in that race.” Of course, in 2026, this not being “your grandmother’s party anymore” may be a feature, not a bug. Speaking of disrupting the status quo …
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VP JD Vance is headed to Indiana to talk redistricting with Republicans in the Hoosier State. | Lauren Leigh Bacho/AP Photo | REDISTRICTING ROUND-UP: Today, VP JD Vance will visit Indiana to talk with Gov. Mike Braun and press state GOP leaders to draw new district maps ahead of 2026 to eke out another Republican seat. It’s a signal the White House isn't backing off its maximum gerrymandering strategy anytime soon, as POLITICO’s Andrew Howard writes this morning. Indeed, Trump’s team is putting “maximum pressure on everywhere where redistricting is an option and it could provide a good return on investment,” a person familiar with the team’s thinking tells POLITICO. How many more seats could the GOP net? “Republicans could draw 10 or more new seats that advantage the party ahead of the midterms,” Andrew writes. “Later this year, Ohio will be legally forced to remap the state, potentially giving Republicans up to three more seats there. And talks are underway in Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.” But not all Republicans are cheering the gerrymander-everywhere-now campaign … FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The end of the blue state Republican?: Trump is “testing whether party loyalty ever asks too much in the Trump era by all but signing the political death warrants of a handful of blue state Republicans,” POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin writes this morning. Opening the Pandora’s box of mid-cycle gerrymandering “creates a situation where you’re going to lose blue state members, which over the long haul are critical to keeping the majority,” says Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). Trump “was not given the full picture of the ultimate consequences,” adds Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), whose seat will likely be eliminated if Gov. Gavin Newsom proceeds with a post-Texas retaliatory redraw of the Golden State’s districts. Kiley has introduced a bill “that would block all mid-decade redistricting efforts and, while sparing Trump, doesn’t mince words about his expectations of House GOP leaders,” JMart writes. “The onus is on the speaker, along with the minority leader, to get this chaos under control,” Kiley says, adding that Speaker Mike Johnson “needs to show some leadership.”
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America's beverage companies are making it easier than ever to find transparent information about the ingredients in your favorite beverages. Learn more at GoodToKnowFacts.org. | | | | TARIFFS ANDS OR BUTS THE TRADE WAR GROWS: Two minutes before midnight, the president posted on social media, sounding utterly gleeful about the impending wave of tariffs about to hit scores of U.S. trading partners: “IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!” It’s a little bit more complicated than that, of course. If you feel confused or bewildered by the tariffs, you’re in good company. “Even to trade nerds, the complexity of this is just bonkers,” Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tells the FT. Foreign trading partners “are seeking further clarity on U.S. tariff plans,” WSJ’s Jason Douglas and colleagues report. “Key details of many of the pacts agreed so far are still not finalized, or in some cases are being interpreted differently by each side. … [T]rade talks are far from over despite the run of agreements trumpeted by the White House in the past month.” Confusion about the tariffs — “and the president’s willingness to adjust tariffs spontaneously in pursuit of a variety of political goals — mean that uncertainty over access to the U.S.’s vast domestic market is becoming a key feature of the emerging economic order, with knock-on effects for business investment, hiring and prices.” Even those partners whose trade “agreements” have centered bigly in Trump’s trade deal mythmaking — including the EU, Japan and South Korea — continue to “argue their case with U.S. officials for further relief for prized export sectors.” In short: The tariffs are here, but “the rush to secure further exemptions is on.” The exception: Mexico remains the only country to have been granted a 90-day extension on trade talks with the White House, due in part to the behind-the-scenes work of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “to cultivate a solid relationship with the ever-mercurial Trump,” POLITICO's Megan Messerly reports this morning. The two presidents “talk regularly on the phone,” and national security experts say the Mexican leader has deftly threaded the needle between “acceding to Trump’s demands on border security and fentanyl while keeping her domestic audience happy.” Less successful: India, which Trump targeted with an additional 25 percent tariff yesterday for its continued purchase of Russian oil, per the AP. … Indian PM Narendra Modi will have a call today with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, per Reuters’ Brad Haynes and Lisandra Paraguassu. Lula said that he plans to call China’s Xi Jinping and the leaders of other BRICS member nations afterward about how to handle Trump’s tariffs. First in Playbook: Count on tariffs to be the major topic of conversation as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” this morning at 7:20 a.m. The big picture: Trump’s new tariffs “will bring about one of his longtime goals: smashing a global trade system that he believes has robbed America of jobs and money,” NYT’s Ana Swanson writes. “The double-digit tariffs that the president is rolling out on nearly 100 countries represent a momentous change from the trading order that the United States has helped to build since World War II.” Critics “have said the approach will leave the United States more economically and diplomatically isolated, while drawing other parts of the world closer. And many economists remain skeptical that tariffs will work in the way Mr. Trump intends, saying import taxes will spill into higher prices for consumers, backfire on some manufacturers and slow growth.”
| | | BEST OF THE REST RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: An in-person meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin “has been agreed,” according to a Kremlin official and “and it could possibly take place next week at a venue that has been decided ‘in principle,’” per the AP. A top Putin aide said the potential venue will be announced “a little later.” Trump told European leaders about the prospect of the meeting yesterday, POLITICO’s Chris Lunday and Eric Bazail-Eimil report. Also up in the air? “It’s unclear what the planned meeting with Putin means for Trump’s Friday deadline for imposing sanctions against countries who purchase Russian energy,” Chris and Eric report. But a senior administration official said yesterday they “still expected” Trump would honor tomorrow’s deadline. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The FOIA files: Someone at the Justice Department determined that Ghislaine Maxwell, a convicted sex offender, could be transferred to a minimum-security prison camp, and Norm Eisen’s Democracy Defenders Fund wants to find out who, POLITICO’s Erica Orden writes in. The group has filed a Freedom of Information request with the Justice Department for records related to the transfer, including from AG Pam Bondi, Deputy AG Todd Blanche and Bureau of Prisons Director William Marshall III, as well as any communications concerning a waiver Maxwell would have needed to receive to bypass the Bureau of Prisons requirement that a sex offender be housed in at least a low-security facility. Maxwell’s upgrade came days after she sat for hours of interviews with Blanche as part of the Trump administration’s effort to quiet the uproar over its handling of the so-called Epstein files. WEAPONIZATION WATCH: “Gabbard overrode CIA officials’ concerns in push to release classified Russia report,” by WaPo’s Warren Strobel: “The Trump administration pushed to unveil a highly classified document on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election after an intense behind-the-scenes struggle over secrecy, which ended in late July when Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released a minimally redacted version of the report … Gabbard, with the blessing of President Donald Trump, overrode arguments from the CIA and other intelligence agencies that more of the document should remain classified to obscure U.S. spy agencies’ sources and methods.” WHAT K STREET IS READING: “The second Trump administration seemed poised to deliver on MAGA’s embrace of aggressive antitrust enforcement. Instead, those efforts have run headlong into power brokers with close ties to President Trump who have snatched up lucrative assignments helping companies facing antitrust threats,” WSJ’s Dave Michaels and Annie Linskey report. “Through these power brokers, companies have also been able to appeal to some of the president’s broader economic priorities to limit enforcement.”
| | | | Did you know Playbook goes beyond the newsletter—with powerhouse new co-hosts at the mic? Tune in to The Playbook Podcast every weekday for exclusive intel and sharp analysis on Trump’s Washington, straight from Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns. Start listening now. | | | | | WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: Trump is considering jumping into the NYC mayoral race in an attempt to slow Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s growing political momentum, per NYT’s Nicholas Fandos and colleagues. In recent weeks, the president is reported to have “quizzed a Republican congressman and New York businessmen about who in the crowded field of candidates, which includes Mayor Eric Adams and former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has the best chance” against Mamdani. Trump also spoke directly to Cuomo about the race in a previously undisclosed call, though the president denied the conversation to reporters. HILLBILLY ELEGY, PART II?: NBC’s Henry Gomez profiles Nate Morris, one of the candidates running to replace Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Morris “grew up in Louisville, Kentucky, with a single mother, an absent father and grandparents who schooled him in Appalachian culture and the ways of the working class” and carries “biography and anti-establishment pitch, tailored to President Donald Trump’s right-wing populist base,” that’s “reminiscent of the formula that sent JD Vance from the private sector to the Senate — and, most recently, to the vice presidency.” IMMIGRATION FILES: Trump’s immigration crackdown is working out new ways to staff up. Yesterday, DHS announced that it’s lifting some requirements, including age limits, for new recruits in an effort to hasten hiring, POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy reports. … DHS also announced it has reassigned dozens of FEMA employees to help support deportation efforts, per WaPo’s Brianna Sacks. RIGHTS WATCH: Leaked draft plans “of the State Department’s long-delayed annual human rights reports indicate that the Trump administration intends to dramatically scale back U.S. government criticism of certain foreign nations with extensive records of abuse,” WaPo’s Adam Taylor and colleagues report. “The draft human rights reports for El Salvador, Israel and Russia, copies of which were reviewed by The Washington Post, are significantly shorter than the ones prepared last year by the Biden administration. They strike all references to LGBTQ+ individuals or crimes against them, and the descriptions of government abuses that do remain have been softened.”
| | | | Policy moves fast—stay ahead with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant. Effortlessly search POLITICO's archive of 1M+ news articles, analysis documents, and legislative text. Track legislation, showcase your impact, and generate custom reports in seconds. Designed for POLITICO Pro subscribers, this tool helps you make faster, smarter decisions. Start exploring now. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | JD Vance’s team reportedly had the Army Corps of Engineers “take the unusual step of changing the outflow of a lake in Ohio to accommodate a recent boating excursion on a family holiday,” per The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner and David Smith. The Corps said in a statement it was done at the Secret Service’s request to “support safe navigation.” MEDIA MOVES — Mica Soellner will be a White House reporter with Bloomberg Government. She previously was a Congress reporter at Punchbowl News and is a Washington Examiner and Washington Times alum. … Jessi Turnure is now a multimedia journalist at MediaSource. She previously was a national correspondent for Nexstar’s D.C. bureau. TRANSITIONS — Consumer Bands has added Lauren Berkowitz as director and legal counsel, Susanna Blair as senior director of regulatory and technical affairs and Will Grassle as packaging and sustainability policy manager. … Paula Huff is now deputy director of scheduling in the office of the secretary at the Labor Department. She most recently was director of operations for Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Abigail Spanberger … Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Mary Miller (R-Ill.) … NYT’s Jonathan Swan (4-0) … Robert Mueller … Axios’ Sara Fischer … Larry Sabato of the U.Va. Center for Politics … Reason’s Nick Gillespie … Caitlin Legacki … Ron Christie … Andrew Gradison … The Atlantic’s Scott Stossel … Allyn Brooks-LaSure … Matt Mazonkey of Airbus … Jordan Heiliczer of the National Restaurant Association … Dan Merica … POLITICO’s Nate Robson … Jenn Lore London … Bruce Friedrich of the Good Food Institute … Juven Jacob of Juven Capitol Strategies … Kimberly Ellis of Monument Advocacy … Fox News’ Breanne Deppisch … Alex Kahan … Ryan Callanan … Tamika Mason of Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-S.C.) office … Tom McClusky … Wesley Derryberry of Wilson Sonsini … Andrew Lott … Kirsten Borman Dougherty … Ryan Pettit … Hollie Tracz … Alan Keyes … Susan Feeney of GMMB … former Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor … George Kelemen … James Owens … BGR Group’s Jerry Strickland … H.W. Brands … Matt Dornic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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