| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
Despite President Donald Trump not trumpeting his “cards” quite like last time, Ukraine is surrounded by uncertainty. | Alex Brandon/AP | A WAITING GAME: The image of President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, flanked by a collection of world leaders touting a “team Europe” coming together with “team America,” was a rush of relief for Ukraine — which seemingly emerged from the White House meetings with the alliance it hoped for and a plan to approach Russian President Vladimir Putin, NYT’s Kim Barker writes from Kyiv. But it’s still too early for Ukraine to stop holding its breath: Russia has shown no signs of slowing its attacks with hundreds of drones hitting Ukraine overnight, and it remains to be seen if Europe’s shining optimism will last. Despite Trump not trumpeting his “cards” quite like last time, Ukraine is surrounded by uncertainty, POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi writes in her latest Compass column. “As the visitors made their practiced pitches while sitting around a table with the U.S. president, the whole thing felt absurd,” Nahal writes. Ukraine can’t trust Putin. But it’s also unclear how much they can trust Trump: “for Kyiv, the diplomatic field is arguably more unpredictable than the battlefield.” The biggest piece of the puzzle is the security guarantees for Ukraine, which remain fuzzy in detail a day later. The Trump administration said Putin understands Western troops will be involved in protecting Ukraine. Yesterday, Trump personally told Zelenskyy and European leaders that Ukraine will have “Article 5-like” NATO protections, but he omitted any specifics. And this morning, Trump took the idea of U.S. troops in Ukraine firmly off the table in an interview with Fox News. “You have my assurance, and I’m president,” Trump said on not putting American boots on the ground, a promise that likely has more to do with his MAGA base than it does with Eastern Europe, as Playbook’s Adam Wren and Dasha Burns broke down this morning. But POLITICO’s Irie Sentner writes that there’s not a firm red line on military involvement — it could instead look like air or drone support. A senior admin official even said the U.S. “could participate in a peacekeeping force if it is the last piece required for a deal.” Though Trump touted a “warmth” in his relationship with Putin that he said Europe does not share, he still conceded on “Fox & Friends” that Putin may not make a deal, and we’re still weeks away from that answer. “I wouldn’t say [Putin and Zelenskyy] are ever going to be best friends, but they’re doing OK, and we’re just going to see,” Trump said. “You know, they’re the ones that have to call the shots.” THE HARD WORK BEGINS: The European Council met today to debrief yesterday’s summit. U.S. and European officials are already working to build up Ukraine’s military, an inevitable part of the security guarantees Zelenskyy has been asking for, Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli and colleagues report. The goal is boosting their troop numbers without any restrictions, by avoiding any demands on Russia’s part of capping the Ukrainian military’s size. The room where it happens: The logistics of what these security guarantees will look like, especially on the U.S. side, are the central focus of a new commission headed up by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. The timeline: One Ukrainian official said “everyone is going to be working from sunrise till dark on the security guarantees. Maybe by the end of the week we will have some clear architecture.” This must be the place: The White House is looking at Budapest as the location for a potential trilateral between Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy, Dasha scoops. The country, led by PM Viktor Orbán, is emerging as the first choice, and the U.S. Secret Service is scouting locations. That said, Switzerland announced it would grant “immunity” to Putin on his arrest charges should he visit the country for peace talks with Ukraine, POLITICO’s Seb Starcevic writes. Multiple world leaders have floated Geneva as a potential spot, and Switzerland appears open to it. The view from Moscow: But it’s still unclear if Putin will go forward, especially as Moscow continues to pour cold water on a face-to-face bilateral. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said a summit would have to happen “step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages.” As POLITICO’s Elena Giordano puts it, “Russia’s calibrated language follows a familiar pattern: agree in principle, stall in practice.” Welcome to the hard part, as WSJ’s Alex Ward and colleagues break down. Trump’s said multiple times now this has been the most difficult diplomatic task yet. But if — and it’s not a small if — a bilateral between Putin and Zelenskyy does happen, “it would only signal that the toughest phase of negotiations had just begun — and with no guarantee of success.” Meanwhile, there’s no doubt of the stakes — for Trump at least, and it’s not just political. It’s well known he’s jockeying for the Nobel Peace Prize, but on Fox News this morning he signaled he’s looking for a higher reward. “I want to try and get to heaven if possible. I’m hearing I’m not doing well. I didn’t really hit the bottom of the totem pole. ... But if I can get to heaven, this will be one of the reasons.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your scoops at abianco@politico.com.
| | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. TRAIL MIX: Graham Platner, an oyster farmer from Maine, is mounting a Democratic bid to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) — an effort that could thwart Democrats’ plans to rally around Gov. Janet Mills, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein reports. Platner also indicated that he would not back Chuck Schumer as leader if Democrats manage to wrest control of the Senate back from Republicans. It’s the latest race that could become a generational litmus test for the party, which has younger progressives calling for fresh faces and older moderates betting on battle-tested candidates. The DNC prepares: The DNC is overhauling its technology to organize volunteers and voters for the first time in 20 years, NBC’s Mirna Alsharif and Jason Abbruzzese write. “The new technology includes a management system to help track interactions among the DNC, voters and volunteers; software that encourages ‘high-quality interactions with voters’; and a platform to empower Democrats to participate in online and offline events.” They’ll get a test run this year in New Jersey and Virginia’s elections. Speaking of Virginia: VoteVets is launching a half-million-dollar ad campaign to boost Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger in the Virginia governor’s race, which will offer one of the first major political bellwethers of the second Trump administration, CNN’s David Wright reports. Meanwhile, GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears has experienced a summer of tension with John Reid, the number two on Republicans’ ticket, National Review’s Audrey Fahlberg writes. 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: A federal judge in Miami partially dismissed a lawsuit on the legal rights of the immigrants detained at “Alligator Alcatraz,” transferring the remaining First Amendment challenge to another jurisdiction, per AP’s David Fischer and colleagues. … A new memo shows USCIS will home in on “good morale character” as a judgement for immigrants seeking U.S. citizenship, which experts fear will make the application process more subjective, WaPo’s Grace Moon reports. … HUD is preparing changes to public housing rules to evict families with an undocumented family member and restrict rental vouchers, per Bloomberg’s Patrick Sisson. “The rule could affect more than 100,000 people, half of them children.” 3. CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: Half of non-immigration related arrests in Trump’s D.C. crackdown have been located in two high-crime areas, according to a new White House analysis reported by Axios’ Cuneyt Dil and Marc Caputo. Roughly 101 arrests have been made in Wards 7 and 8, which have long carried the city’s highest crime rates. Meanwhile, National Guard troops have been stationed in high-traffic areas to deter crime, per the White House. The latest numbers: AG Pam Bondi said there were 52 arrests overnight, including nine firearms seized — for a total of 465 arrests and 68 guns seized since the crackdown started. Dose of reality: The 51st’s Martin Austermuhle notes on X that the number of guns swept up was largely par for the course for the Metropolitan Police Department before the crackdown. “From 6/16-6/22, MPD alone got 50. From 7/21-7/27, it was 60. From 6/30-7/6, it was 70 guns.” The data divide: The Trump administration has broadly blasted statistics showing that crime in D.C., while still a problem, is on a downward trend. But the U.S. attorney’s office in D.C. is now opening an investigation into whether local officials falsified crime data, NYT’s Devlin Barrett reports. “How tabulating crime data from the local police could amount to a federal crime is not immediately clear, the two people said, though the effort aims to determine if there were false statements or fraud involved in producing the data.” Related read: “Trump wants DC to charge 14-year-olds as adults. Here’s where the district’s laws stand,” by CNN’s Ethan Schenker 4. ON RECESS: Senators are prepared to make a rules change come September to speed up the confirmation process for some of Trump’s nominees, but POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs reports they’re not going to give up the so-called blue slips, which allow members to effectively veto nominees that would serve their areas. It’s a rare break from Trump, with Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) telling Hailey: “[My] appeal to the president is: please reconsider. Why do we want to have this fight for nothing?” Personality politics: Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) has the votes to be the next Senate Democratic whip, but Hill Democrats say he’s basically already been doing the job since Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) announced his retirement, Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio reports. Schatz has the ability to build relationships with both the more progressive and moderate factions of the party, and is a favorite to eventually replace Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. September preview: “Trump budget officials claim sweeping spending power from Congress, records show,” by WaPo’s Riley Beggin and Jacob Bogage: “The Trump administration is asserting authority to withhold billions of dollars from low-income housing services, education assistance, medical research grants and other programs approved by Congress … The new practices are likely to reignite a clash over the administration’s power to freeze dollars approved by Congress, usurping authority that the legislative branch has under the Constitution.”
| | | | The California Agenda-- Don't miss POLITICO's inaugural California policy summit in Sacramento. Join us in-person or virtually to explore policyy debates around tech, energy, health care and more. Hear from Sen. Alex Padilla (D), Katie Porter, GOP gubernatorial candidates and more! Register to watch. | | | | | 5. THE ECONOMY, STUPID: Warning signs have emerged on inflation and the labor market, but the economy isn’t necessarily headed for disaster, NYT’s Lydia DePillis writes. “Economists have been waiting for that multifaceted storm system to start showing up in the economic data. The signs are now unmistakable, but the severity of the impact remains unclear.” But we’re two days away from the Fed symposium at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, which kicks off Thursday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday will provide more insight on what’s to come on interest rates. Taking business elsewhere: China is looking to deepen its trade relations with India after their foreign ministers met in India this week, which WSJ’s Shan Li and Chun Han Wong report is a “a sign that [Trump’s] trade war could accelerate a thaw in the frosty relationship between Beijing and New Delhi.” Apple is also expanding its iPhone production at five factories in India, part of its larger effort to decrease reliance on China, Bloomberg’s Sankalp Phartiyal and Mark Gurman write. … And Lesotho, which was dealt the highest tariff rate back in April and is now under a 15 percent levy, is looking to Asia for its textile exports, per Bloomberg’s Ray Ndlovu. 6. CUTTING DEEP: The cuts to Medicaid in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will disproportionately hit Black children and women, who already carry some of the highest maternal mortality rates in the country, POLITICO’s Cheyenne Daniels writes. “Although Black people represent about 14 percent of the U.S. population, they account for more than 20 percent of Medicaid enrollees, according to Pew Research Center — and almost 60 percent of all Black children are enrolled in Medicaid, according to a recent analysis from the NAACP and other advocacy organizations.” Protecting public media: Philanthropists are putting together an emergency $26.5 million cash injection to fund the local NPR and PBS stations most at risk of shutting down after Congress greenlit sweeping cuts to public media. NYT’s Ben Mullin reports that the Knight Foundation and others are focused on stations that got 30 percent of their funding from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which is set to shut down next year. 7. VAX ON: “Defying RFK Jr., pediatric group urges covid shots for young kids,” by WaPo’s Lena Sun: “The American Academy of Pediatrics on Tuesday urged parents to get their youngest children vaccinated for covid, part of a broader effort by medical organizations to bypass Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his criticism of broadly administering coronavirus vaccines. … The AAP is recommending that all children ages 6 months through 23 months receive a coronavirus vaccine to help protect against serious illness.”
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From 2019-2023, Universal Orlando generated $44 billion in economic impact for the nation. Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump’s Doral golf resort is returning to the PGA Tour circuit and is set to host one of its signature events next spring. It’s the first time Trump National Doral has hosted a PGA event since 2016. TRANSITIONS — The National Association of Manufacturers is adding Ted Allen as senior director of corporate finance policy, Reagan Giesenschlag as director of chemicals, materials and sustainability policy, and Kevin Doyle as director of international policy. Allen previously was VP of policy and advocacy at the Society for Corporate Governance. Giesenschlag previously was director of government affairs at the Fertilizer Institute. Doyle previously was an international trade specialist at the Commerce Department. … Adam Greenfield has rejoined Latham & Watkins as a partner in the Intellectual Property Litigation Practice. He previously was a partner at White & Case. … Gerardo Bonilla Chavez is joining The Century Foundation as director of government affairs. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and was a 2024 Pritzker fellow at the University of Chicago Institute of Politics. … Andrew Knudsen is now a partner at McGuireWoods. He previously was an attorney at the Justice Department’s Environmental Defense Section. … Maheen Haq is now a program and policy administrative assistant at the U.S. Council for International Business. She previously was at DGA Group. WEEKEND WEDDING — Jing Qu, previously the senior adviser for paid media on the Harris campaign, and Jason Nawrocki, a software engineer at Meta, got married Saturday at Cochran Chapel at Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts. They met while attending Andover and reconnected while working at Meta. Pic, via Mariana de Vreeze … Another pic … SPOTTED: Dan Koh and Amy Sennett, Matt McLaughlin, Mike and Trish Donilon, Patrick Bonsignore, Brenna Sparks, Scott Syroka, Monica Palid, Charlotte Butash, Diego Nunez, Christiana Ho, Henry Engelstein, Caitlin Meloski, Mariana and Max de Vreeze, Nina Srivastava, Rachel Chiu and Jordana Narin. BONUS BIRTHDAY: Kevin Minoli of Alston & Bird Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Want to know how policy pros stay ahead? Policy Intelligence Assistant — only with POLITICO Pro — merges trusted reporting with advanced AI to deliver deeper insights, faster answers, and powerful report builders that drive action. Get 30 days free. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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