| | | |  | | By Zack Stanton | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco Good morning. I’m Zack Stanton. Send me your tips: zstanton@politico.com.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Inflation under Joe Biden burned voters; Donald Trump prescribed himself as the salve. Which is one big reason why yesterday’s jobs report ought to concern the GOP. | Alex Brandon/AP | It’s been 33 years since James Carville posted a sign reading “The economy, stupid” in Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign headquarters — an attempt to keep staff on message — and the phrase has long since entered the realm of tired political cliché. But clichés are often so for a reason. And in this case, it got at a fundamental reality of politics: The economy has a central importance to the outcome of elections. Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, Clinton’s in 1992, Barack Obama’s in 2008: Each was seen in the immediate aftermath as heralding far-reaching revolutions in American politics. But savvy readers of history also know that whatever else they eventually became, all three elections were made possible because of the economic mood of the country. So, too, with Donald Trump’s election in 2024. Over the past 10 months, there has been no shortage of analyses where his victory has been characterized by very smart people as a referendum on identity politics, marking a “cultural tipping point,” delivering him a mandate to institute sweeping changes and so on. But 2024 was also — perhaps primarily — about the economy. Inflation under President Joe Biden burned voters; Trump prescribed himself as the salve. Which is one big reason why yesterday’s jobs report ought to concern the GOP. “[Trump] has a few more months to figure out how he wants to impact public impressions of the economy before a frame gets drawn around the midterms,” Lanhee Chen, a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and director of domestic policy studies at Stanford University, tells the FT. “The ability of Republicans to retain control of the House and Senate is going to depend in no small part on his ability to tell a positive economic story.” That could be an uphill battle. The latest numbers speak to a gulf between the glittery economic story Trump has told thus far and the lived reality at this moment for many Americans. Consider the following:
- Businesses added just 22,000 jobs in August.
- The U.S. actually lost 13,000 jobs in June, according to the latest revision.
- So far in 2025, the U.S. economy has added fewer than 600,000 jobs. Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic, that’s “the fewest for the first eight months of the year since 2009,” WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and Jack Pitcher write.
- Manufacturing jobs declined for the fourth straight month in August — the longest stretch since 2020. Over the past year, “employment in the sector is down by nearly 80,000,” Bloomberg’s Michael Sasso and Jordan Fabian report. In short: The “renaissance in US manufacturing promised by President Donald Trump seems, at least for now, to be moving in reverse.”
| | | | A message from Booz Allen: Booz Allen is helping the Department of Homeland Security fight drug cartels at the border with advanced analytics. When American lives are at stake, our tech steps up. Learn more. | | | | For the Trump administration, there’s a silver lining to this: It’s looking much more likely that interest rates will be cut later this month, as Trump himself repeatedly said yesterday. Is that a reason for optimism for Republicans’ midterm hopes? As Lee Corso might say: Not so fast, my friend. Though an interest rate cut is “designed to ease the burden on indebted households and support job seekers,” Bloomberg’s Lu Wang and Denitsa Tsekova note that, in practice, “the greater lift often comes through financial markets. Rising asset values cushion portfolios and sustain consumption even as wages lag.” And that widens the gap between economic classes. “For those with financial assets, real estate, they are experiencing a sense of permanence to their wealth,” Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary, tells Bloomberg. “Those at the bottom, though, they experience the income effect and are really struggling because they have no benefits of ownership.” Thought bubble: Since November, Republicans have touted their electoral gains among working-class Americans. But what happens if that same group of voters is most at risk in this economy? The White House is betting the numbers improve by the time the election arrives. POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports that the ”White House sent talking points to Capitol Hill Republicans on Friday afternoon, stressing that ‘President Trump is implementing the most aggressive pro-growth agenda in our country’s history’ and focused instead on yearly job gains without mentioning the disappointing jobs report.” (There’s an irony, AP’s Josh Boak notes, that an administration that “prides itself on operating at a breakneck speed” is “now asking the American people for patience, with Trump saying better job numbers might be a year away.”) Democrats, meanwhile, believe they have “found their footing on an economic message they think they can sell: The president broke his promise of a better economy — a promise he rode to victory in 2024, when he pummeled Democrats for overseeing a period of soaring inflation,” POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker and Lisa Kashinsky write. Or, to put it simply, one need only look at another of the three phrases Carville put on the wall in Little Rock back in 1992 — the one listed above “The economy, stupid”: “Change vs. more of the same.”
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| | | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. CAN’T GET RID OF ME THAT EASILY: NYC Mayor Eric Adams announced yesterday that he will not end his reelection bid, despite a flurry of reporting that Trump allies were urging him to drop out by offering posts in the administration. Instead he denounced his rivals: “Andrew Cuomo is a snake and a liar,” Adams said, referring to the former governor and mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani as “two spoiled brats.” That leaves this as a four-way race with two months to go, and it’s a blow to Trump’s efforts to consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote. More from POLITICO’s Jeff Coltin and colleagues More from the campaign trail: Texas state Rep. James Talarico will enter the Democratic Senate primary Tuesday, Playbook’s Adam Wren scooped. The rising star is set to challenge former Rep. Colin Allred, who was Democrats’ Senate nominee last year. 2. INCOMING: “RFK Jr., HHS to Link Autism to Tylenol Use in Pregnancy and Folate Deficiencies,” by WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte and Nidhi Subbaraman: “Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce that pregnant women’s use of an over-the-counter pain medication is potentially linked to autism in a report that will also suggest a medicine derived from folate can be used to treat symptoms of the developmental disorder in some people … Some previous studies have indicated risks to fetal development [from Tylenol], but others have found no association. … It couldn’t be determined if the report will mention vaccines … The report being prepared by HHS staff takes a measured approach.” 3. DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO: This summer has made one thing clear: A lot of wealthy people may like to claim multiple homes as their primary residence. That practice, of course, is at the center of attacks by Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte and Trump on several of the president’s perceived foes, including the Fed’s Lisa Cook, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and New York AG Letitia James. Recent reporting has also raised questions about prominent presidential allies, including Texas AG Ken Paxton, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, though here Republicans haven’t sought to use law enforcement against their friends. In nearly all of these cases, the people accused have denied any wrongdoing. And now the latest scoop comes from Reuters’ Marisa Taylor and colleagues, who report that Pulte’s own father and stepmother claimed “homestead exemptions” for primary residences to get lower taxes in two different states. They didn’t respond for comment, but a Michigan authority said he’d revoke the status as a result. And if that’s not enough: Adriana Kugler, whose sudden resignation from the Fed remains somewhat shrouded in mystery, also has inconsistencies in what she claims as her primary residence in tax records, CNBC’s Eamon Javers reports. But the details are fairly different from, say, Cook’s, and Kugler said tax officials had just made a clerical error. Meanwhile … Trump said yesterday that his top three contenders to be the next Fed chair are likely Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh. More from Bloomberg 4. SCHOOL DAZE: “Settlement Talks Stall Between Harvard and the Trump Administration,” by NYT’s Michael Bender and colleagues: “One major reason is an emerging divide within the administration between aides eager to deliver President Trump a political victory by announcing a deal and those who contend the current framework is too favorable to Harvard. Some Trump advisers argue that one way to strengthen the agreement would be to subject Harvard to an independent monitor who would ensure compliance. Harvard has consistently opposed that idea. … Talks have also slowed in recent weeks with Cornell University and Northwestern University.”
| | | | Playbook isn’t just a read — it’s a daily listen. Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns bring unmatched reporting and analysis on the power plays shaping Trump’s Washington. Hear the latest now. | | | | | 5. JUDICIARY SQUARE: In the ongoing back-and-forth between the Trump administration and the federal judiciary, this “was the worst week in the courts in months” for Trump, NBC’s Dareh Gregorian and Gary Grumbach write. Here are the latest rulings, just from yesterday:
- Immigration: A federal judge again blocked DHS from ending Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans and Haitians, saying the decision was illegally predicated on unfounded assertions and “based on racial, ethnic, and/or national origin animus,” per the S.F. Chronicle’s Bob Egelko. … Separately, an immigration appeals court within the Justice Department has determined that undocumented immigrants facing deportation proceedings can’t get out on bond, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. That “upends a decadeslong understanding of federal law and could subject millions of immigrants to mandatory detention.”
- Foreign aid: A federal appellate panel for now kept in place an injunction that forces the Trump administration to spend $12 billion in foreign aid approved by Congress that would otherwise expire at month’s end, per Bloomberg. This is likely going to the Supreme Court on an emergency basis.
- Education: A federal judge tossed out lawsuits against the Education Department by school districts in Fairfax and Arlington, Virginia, per WaPo. The districts had argued that the Trump administration was illegally threatening to withhold funds if they didn’t force transgender students to use bathrooms that don’t align with their gender identity. But the judge said the lawsuits would be more appropriate for a different court.
More legal news: The Trump administration has now stopped defending in court the Biden administration’s regulation to ban non-compete agreements for workers, per Reuters. … Judge Aileen Cannon tossed out Newsmax’s antitrust lawsuit against Fox News but said it can be refiled if the complaint fixes technical issues, per CNBC. … Authorities announced the arrests of two teenagers in the June killing of congressional intern Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, per WaPo. 6. ELBRIDGE COLBY STRIKES AGAIN: “Pentagon plan prioritizes homeland over China threat,” by POLITICO’s Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman: “Pentagon officials are proposing the department prioritize protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere, a striking reversal from the military’s yearslong mandate to focus on the threat from China. A draft of the newest National Defense Strategy, which landed on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s desk last week, places domestic and regional missions above countering adversaries such as Beijing and Moscow.” 7. ABREGO LATEST: As Kilmar Abrego Garcia newly tries to seek asylum in the U.S., the Trump administration’s latest filing threatened to deport him back to El Salvador, where a court previously found that he would face persecution, NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz and Alan Feuer report. But then yesterday, authorities told Abrego of a different plan — to send him to Eswatini, CNN’s Kaanita Iyer and Priscilla Alvarez report. 8. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Trump signs executive order to blacklist countries that illegally detain Americans,” by NBC’s Abigail Williams: “Trump signed an executive order Friday establishing a ‘state sponsor of wrongful detention’ designation, a move designed to put pressure on countries that illegally detain Americans. The executive order will give Secretary of State Marco Rubio the ability to impose sanctions on designated countries or order other punishments.”
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| | | | 9. THUNE GOES NUCLEAR: Senate Majority Leader John Thune will start laying the groundwork as soon as Monday to tee up changing the Senate’s rules to speed the confirmation of Trump’s nominees, a person familiar with the scheduling told POLITICO’s Jordain Carney. The proposal will allow for most executive branch nominees — though not Cabinet officials — to be confirmed as a bloc instead of individually. Some Republicans had left the door open to including district court judges, but we’re told they are officially being left out of the rules change. The decision to go nuclear comes after the South Dakota Republican quietly convened a broad range of GOP senators over the last month to develop the proposed rules change, the person added. Republicans used a former proposal from Sen. Amy Klobuchar as a template, but built in more flexibility like not including the Minnesota Democrat’s proposed cap of 10 nominees per bloc. Get the latest from the Hill in POLITICO’s Inside Congress newsletter CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
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Bill Bramhall - Daily News | GREAT WEEKEND READS: — “Sudan’s Crisis in the Shadows,” by Moises Saman and Charlie Campbell for Time: “Relief organizations estimate that the Trump Administration’s slashing of USAID has shuttered 4 of every 5 emergency food kitchens catering to displaced Sudanese.” — “The Baby Died. Whose Fault Is It?” by Emi Nietfeld in Wired: “When her son died in utero, a venture capitalist went to extremes to punish her surrogate.” — “The disappearance of Nory Sontay Ramos,” by MSNBC’s Jacob Soboroff and Kay Guerrero: “Nory and her mother were following the rules. But as MSNBC reports from L.A. and Guatemala, U.S. officials deported them anyway — throwing their futures into jeopardy.” — “How — and Why — U.S. Capitalism Is Unlike Any Other,” by Roger Lowenstein in the WSJ: “The main difference between America’s brand of capitalism and elsewhere: a focus on the individual and an incentive to take risks.” — “The MAGA kids are not all White,” by WaPo’s Jesús Rodríguez: “A new generation of young, Black conservatives is trying to gain sway within Trump’s GOP. They have some ideas for how to keep the party going.” — “God Dog,” by n+1’s Mina Tavakoli: “A visit to the dog show.” — “Donald Trump is unpopular. Why is it so hard to stand up to him?” The Economist: “Republicans are servile. Courts are slow. Can the Democrats rouse themselves?”
| | | | Want to know how policy pros stay ahead? Policy Intelligence Assistant — only with POLITICO Pro — merges trusted reporting with advanced AI to deliver deeper insights, faster answers, and powerful report builders that drive action. Get 30 days free. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Donald Trump said he’ll host a G20 summit at his Doral golf club, which would be an illegal conflict of interest if he weren’t protected from such rules as the president. SPOTTED: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at Gold’s Gym in Georgetown. Pic ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Trump welcomed members of Congress to the new version of the White House Rose Garden, now covered with pavement. He said this would be the “Rose Garden Club” for politicians and, “frankly, people that can bring peace and success to our country.” More from the AP SPORTS BLINK — “Inside the Planning for a UFC Cage Match on the White House Lawn,” by WSJ’s Alex Leary: “The fight, set for June, is expected to be accompanied by several days of festivities on the National Mall.” TRANSITIONS — At the State Department, chief of staff Mike Needham will become policy planning chief as Michael Anton leaves later this year, AP’s Matthew Lee reports. Dan Holler will become the new chief of staff. Needham will remain State Department counselor. … Lauren Fine is joining Google’s global comms and public affairs team to work on policy comms. She most recently has been comms director for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and is a Joni Ernst alum. … … Christina Reynolds has launched Break Glass Strategic Communications, focused on strategic planning, media training and comms campaigns. She most recently was SVP of comms and content at EMILY’s List, and is a campaign and Obama White House veteran. … Grant Faber is now standards lead at Absolute Climate. He’s a former Energy Department carbon removal specialist. More from POLITICO’s E&E News’ Corbin Hiar for Pros WEDDINGS — Emily Hoyle, deputy press secretary at Accountable.US, and Michael Enseki-Frank, counsel at Reset.Tech, got married Aug. 23 in Portland, Oregon. Daniel Ki officiated. The couple, both Oregon natives, met as interns for Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). Pic, via Val Photo Co. — Caleb Crandall, strategic partnerships manager at Americans United for Life, and Alice Seeley, financial and administrative manager at Concerned Women for America, got married Aug. 30 at St. Rita’s Catholic Church in Alexandria, Virginia. They met as undergraduates at Christendom College. Pic, via Bernadette Rohan … Another pic … SPOTTED: Ashtyn Rouland, Tim O’Neill, Erin Drummy and Jenny Protzman. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) (7-0), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Bill Keating (D-Mass.), Danny Davis (D-Ill.) and Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) … former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie … Carly Fiorina … Brittany Bramell Punaro … Ryan Mahoney … Lizzie Ulmer … Dan Ronayne … Jana Barresi of Lowe’s … POLITICO’s Krystal Campos, Jack Larsen and Kari Oakes … Paul Volpe … Meredith McPhillips … Liz Shrum … CNN’s Tala Alrajjal and Scott McCrary … Fox News’ Gillian Turner … Clyde Prestowitz of the Economic Strategy Institute … WaPo’s Brianna Tucker … NPR’s Claire Harbage … former Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter … former Reps. Sander Levin (D-Mich.) (94), John Kline (R-Minn.) and Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) … Kevin Rieg … John Hagner … Elizabeth Vargas … Rokk Solutions’ Eva Miller … Kathy Grannis Allen … Rational 360’s Alina Bondarenko (28) … Joshua Baca … Brookings’ Nicol Turner Lee … Sinclair’s Steve Chaggaris … Bloomberg’s Jason Schechter THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): ABC “This Week”: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Panel: Donna Brazile, Chris Christie and Reince Priebus. NBC “Meet the Press”: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent … Maryland Gov. Wes Moore … Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) … Steve Kornacki. Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Stephen Hayes, Jeh Johnson and Jonathan Martin. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Education Secretary Linda McMahon … New York Gov. Kathy Hochul … Dave Ramsey … Mike Rowe. Panel: Juan Williams and Roger Zakheim. CNN “State of the Union”: Border czar Tom Homan … Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo. Panel: Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), Scott Jennings, Xochitl Hinojosa and Shermichael Singleton. MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) … Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) … Zohran Mamdani … Charlie Dent. CBS “Face the Nation”: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) … Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Anthony Salvanto. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) … Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) … Thomas Chatterton Williams. Panel: Shadi Hamid, David Drucker, Kellie Meyer and Laura Weiss. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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