| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha dissect the government shutdown, and home in on three key questions: How long will it last? Who will the public blame? And what happens while a prospective solution gets sorted out?
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| Good Wednesday morning, and welcome to October. This is Jack Blanchard, hoping my POLITICO bosses don’t follow Pete Hegseth’s lead and start firing guys with dodgy beards who don’t meet “male-level physical standards.” I really will join that gym any day now. Honest. CHURCH NEWS: It’s taken nearly five months, but Pope Leo XIV has finally waded into U.S. politics. The pope was asked to comment last night on a seemingly innocuous issue — a Catholic “lifetime achievement” award earmarked for Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, who is an Illinois native like Leo. Local bishops have been complaining Durbin should not have been offered the award given his voting record in favor of abortion rights. (Indeed, Durbin pulled out last night to end the controversy.) But Pope Leo urged people to consider “the overall work a senator has done” across “many issues related to the teachings of the Church.” The pope stated: “Someone who says ‘I’m against abortion’, but is in favor of the death penalty, is not really pro-life. Someone who says ‘I’m against abortion, but I’m in agreement with the inhuman treatment of immigrants who are in the United States’, I don’t know if that’s pro-life.” (Clip and full quotes here, via Catholic News Agency.) These are eye-catching statements, given we have an administration that is opposed to abortion rights and currently embroiled in the biggest deportation campaign in American history — and which, to give just one example, deported more than 200 shackled and forcibly shaven migrants to El Salvador’s notorious CECOT prison facility back in March. All eyes on prominent Catholics like JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Karoline Leavitt and Tom Homan for their reactions. In today’s Playbook … — The federal government is in shutdown mode. We unpack what happens next. — More U.S. troops are deployed on American soil today … as Trump makes clear this is just the start. — Another day, another bunch of whopping trade tariffs kick in.
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson speak to reporters outside the White House on Monday, Sept. 29. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THEY REALLY DID IT: There was no eleventh-hour deal. No last-minute cave by either side. The federal government went into shutdown just after midnight for the first time in nearly seven years, and right now the route back out is hard to see. Each side is blaming the other. Neither feels much pressure to cut a deal. Rather than negotiating, they’re chucking insults and posting memes. It’s probably best not to hold your breath for a speedy outcome. History makers: This is the first government shutdown since the winter of 2018-19, when President Donald Trump — in his first term — refused to sign a funding bill unless border wall cash was baked in. There have been numerous brief “funding gaps” over recent decades, but only a handful of “true shutdowns” (per the CRFB) — under Trump 1.0, Barack Obama in 2013 and Bill Clinton in 1995-96. So despite all the regular noise, this really doesn’t happen too often. What it means: An estimated 750,000 federal employees face being furloughed in the coming hours. (Our POLITICO colleagues have a helpful guide to “what’s still open, what’s closed and what’s fuzzy.” And NYT breaks it down by department.) Many more — including thousands of military personnel — will be ordered to work without pay until a funding bill is agreed to. Hanging over them all is the threat of mass firings, per threats made by Trump and budget chief Russ Vought. The immediate impact on public services is not clear — but the Smithsonian museums are staying open until Monday, so that’s nice. Also staying open: Most of America’s National Parks, POLITICO’s Heather Richards reports. “The majority of the National Park Service’s roughly 16,000 employees are expected to be placed on furlough,” she writes. “But the Trump administration would tap recreation fees to pay for skeleton crews of staff at many sites. Park roads, trails and open-air memorials will mostly remain open to visitors.” Reminder: All this mass furloughing comes with government job losses already hitting historic levels. More than 150,000 federal employees will leave the payroll this week after accepting buyouts that coincided with the end of the government’s fiscal year. That makes this “the largest single-year exodus of civil servants in nearly 80 years, triggering what unions and governance experts warn is a damaging loss of institutional expertise,” per Reuters. Four key questions matter this morning: 1. How long will it last? 2. Who’s taking the blame? 3. Where is the off-ramp? 4. What happens to the federal government in the meantime? On the length of the shutdown, it’s hard to be optimistic, with both sides seemingly digging in for the long haul. The political pressure on Democrats to show some fight is such that it’s difficult to see them caving after just a day or two. (As Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis notes, this was really the only card they had to play ahead of the midterms.) But Republicans insist they will not begin negotiating on health care until Dems vote to back a short-term funding deal. Part of the problem is both Republicans and Democrats believe they have a strong story to tell about who’s to blame. Republicans can rightly say they’ve been trying to pass a short-term funding extension for weeks, which Dems could easily support. Dems can tell the public that the White House and both chambers of Congress are in Republican hands, which means whatever happens with the government is ultimately on them. This dynamic means a negotiated exit looks tough in the immediate term.
| | A message from PhRMA: The biopharmaceutical industry is answering President Trump's call to put America first. PhRMA member companies are investing $500B in new U.S.-based manufacturing and infrastructure, providing financial assistance to 10 million patients annually, and announcing AmericasMedicines.com to connect patients with manufacturer direct purchase programs. See all the ways biopharma is putting America first. | | | | | 
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are dug into the shutdown fight. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Democrats now believe their best hope is some sort of breakthrough with Trump himself, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports, with party leaders optimistic the president — who is nervous about cutting benefits heading into an election year — actually wants a deal on ACA tax credits. Republican fiscal hawks would hate that. Republicans believe their easiest exit route may be peeling away enough nervous Democrats to break the Senate filibuster. In the first CR vote a couple of weeks ago, only Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) voted with the GOP. In last night’s vote, the number of rebels rose to three with the additional help of Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Angus King (I-Maine). GOP leaders are happy with that direction of travel. Which is why: Senate Majority Leader John Thune will be calling another vote on the same CR today, and then repeating the trick again and again in the days to come. With fiscal hardliner Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) the only Republican refusing to back his conference’s bill, Thune still needs five more Democrats to get this done, as POLITICO’s Inside Congress notes. What they said overnight: U.S. Office of Personnel Management: “Due to a lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency.” The White House: “Democrat shutdown!” The Democrats: “Republicans own this shutdown.” Speaker Mike Johnson: “Democrats have officially voted to CLOSE the government. Moms and kids now lose WIC nutrition. Veterans lose health care and suicide prevention programs. FEMA has shortfalls during hurricane season. Soldiers and TSA agents go UNPAID. The only question: How long will Chuck Schumer let this pain go on?” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer: “The Republican shutdown has just begun, because they wouldn’t protect Americans’ health care. We’re going to keep fighting for the American people.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune: “Democrats may have chosen to shut down the government tonight, but we can reopen it tomorrow. All it takes is five Democrats.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: “Democrats remain ready to find a bipartisan path forward … But we need a credible partner. Over the last few days, President Trump’s behavior has become more erratic and unhinged.” President Donald Trump: Well, here’s his latest sombrero vid. California Gov. Gavin Newsom: “THE TRUMP SHUTDOWN IS HERE! … BUT DON’T WORRY, DEMOCRATS ARE STRONG AND TRUMP ALWAYS CHICKENS OUT (T.A.C.O.). NO SOMBRERO NEEDED! — GCN.” While they’re all shouting at each other … We can only watch and wait to see if Trump and Vought use this opportunity to take a permanent ax to the federal workforce. The idea is being referred to as “DOGE 2.0” — and, given Vought’s track record, could prove more effective than the Big Balls-fueled frolics of Elon Musk back in February and March. Vought will do “what DOGE couldn’t do,” one White House official tells The Atlantic. Watch this space. And the administration has put in safeguards to ensure Trump’s most hardline priorities continue unscathed, POLITICO’s Myah Ward and colleagues report this morning. “That means offices tasked with immigration enforcement and tariff negotiations, two hallmarks of Trump’s presidency, will retain significantly more staff than they have in prior shutdowns.” The bigger picture: Beyond those directly affected by job freezes or firings, how much do voters really care? Even in the looming gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, campaign chiefs say the shutdown is not a hot-button issue, per Semafor’s Dave Weigel and Eleanor Mueller. “If you ask the average Joe or Jane at a diner what’s on their mind, I don’t think a shutdown is one of the first 10 things,” Chris Russell, a strategist for New Jersey’s Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, tells them. Indeed, “strategists in both states said the government funding debate was not coming up organically outside of Washington.” With wall-to-wall shutdown coverage over the coming days, it’s possible that may change — especially in Virginia, home to many thousands of federal workers. But the reality is that further afield, plenty of ordinary Americans will simply roll their eyes, blame politicians on all sides and wearily get on with their day. How today pans out: Schumer is on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in the 8 a.m. hour … GOP leadership has a press conference at 10 a.m. … House Democrats have a presser at 11:15 a.m. … White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt holds a televised briefing at 1 p.m. … And the blame game will play out on social media all day long.
| | | | A message from PhRMA:  
Biopharmaceutical companies are doing our part to protect American patients and workers with innovative cures, infrastructure investments and providing patient resources. Learn more. | | | | MILITARY MATTERS CRIME AND PUNISHMENT: National Guard troops are assisting with operations in Missouri for the first time this week, per NPR, as Trump’s military-enforced crackdown on crime and illegal migration continues. This time — unlike in Los Angeles or D.C. — the deployment has been welcomed by local leaders who endorse Trump’s use of the military to support ICE and tackle crime. Only a small number of troops are expected in the Show Me State at first. Who’s next? Chicago and Portland are still braced for sizable troop deployments as soon as this week, despite fierce opposition from state leadership. In Portland, officials say it will take several days to process the troops — of the 300 eligible members, 166 have volunteered so far, per NPR’s Juliana Kim — and nothing is likely to happen ahead of a decision on the temporary restraining order Oregon requested from a federal judge. In Illinois, Gov. JB Pritzker has said DHS wants about 100 troops to help protect ICE agents and facilities in his state. Coming attractions: AG Pam Bondi posted on X that “our operation in Memphis is now underway,” and told Fox Business she and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth plan to visit the city later this week. And Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, another Republican supportive of Trump’s crime crackdown, has requested about 1,000 National Guard officers be deployed to his state, NYT’s Emily Cochrane reports. GET USED TO IT: In his extraordinary 72-minute speech to hundreds of top generals and admirals in Virginia yesterday, Trump made clear he intends to further normalize the use of the U.S. military for domestic law enforcement — and told military leaders to get on board or lose their jobs. Trump even suggested the Pentagon use American cities as “training grounds” for its troops, breaking decades of tradition that have kept the military out of domestic politics, per POLITICO’s Irie Sentner and Paul McLeary. Bleak: Strikingly, Trump said his use of the military in American cities is necessary due to a “war from within,” AP’s Ben Finley and colleagues report — language that has deeply unsettled opponents. “We’re under invasion from within,” Trump said. “No different than a foreign enemy, but more difficult in many ways because they don’t wear uniforms. At least when they’re wearing a uniform you can take them out.” TRADING PLACES NEW DAY, NEW TARIFFS: Trump’s latest sector-specific tariffs went into effect this morning — which means a 100-percent tariff on branded or patented pharmaceutical products, a 25-percent tariff on “Heavy (Big!) Trucks,” a 50-percent tariff on kitchen cabinets plus a 30-percent tariff on upholstered furniture. The new tariffs come a day after Trump announced a major deal with Pfizer to waive pharma tariffs in return for selling drugs to Medicaid users at a “most favored nation” price — meaning lower rates, comparable to those paid in Europe. Pfizer also lauded a $70 billion investment in research and development, including U.S. manufacturing, WaPo’s Dan Diamond and Paige Winfield Cunningham write. More to come: CMS Deputy Administrator Chris Klomp tells Dasha that the deal will mean drugs are more affordable and so more accessible via Medicaid plans — and that the painstaking negotiations with Pfizer were just the start. “We already have other companies where we've either finished negotiations or we are finishing negotiations — this is actually one of the things I'm most excited about,” Klomp said. “It wasn't a one-hit wonder.” Trump also announced the launch of a government-run “TrumpRx” website for consumers to buy pharmaceuticals directly from manufacturers, including Pfizer, at lower cost, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and colleagues report. The drugs will be offered at “savings that will range as high as 85% and on average 50%,” per Pfizer. The site aims to launch in 2026.
| | | | Introducing Global Security: POLITICO’s weekly briefing on the policies, regulatory battles and industrial shifts shaping defense and security across continents. We connect what happens in Washington, Brussels and beyond to what gets funded, what gets built and who benefits. Subscribe now to access the free preview edition. | | | | | TRAIL MIX FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — In the Buckeye State: The day after Ohio's Republican-led legislature missed a constitutional deadline to pass a new congressional map with bipartisan support, the DNC is announcing a six-figure investment to fight redistricting and hire organizing staff ahead of the midterms, our Adam Wren writes in. The campaign: “After passing Trump’s Big Ugly Bill that kicks 460,000 Ohioans off their health care and puts 11 rural hospitals at risk of closing, Ohio Republicans know that voters will hold them responsible," DNC Chair Ken Martin told Playbook in a statement. “That’s why they are trying to cheat by further rigging Ohio’s congressional map. The DNC won’t stand idly by and watch it happen.” TALA-RICO: Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico announced that his campaign for U.S. Senate raised more than $6.2 million in just three weeks — a massive Q3 fundraising haul — with 98% of contributions received totalling $100 or less. “More than 100,000 people have answered the call to build a new kind of politics,” he said. And over in Colorado: State Rep. Manny Rutinel announced he passed $2 million in fundraising last quarter in his bid to unseat Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.). The average donation from individual donors has been under $27. GARDEN STATE PULSE CHECK: Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by eight points among likely voters in the latest Fox News poll, per Fox News’ Dana Blanton. With just over a month to go, Sherrill scores 50 percent support, while Ciattarelli sits at 42 percent. Records review: The National Archives’ inspector general is launching an investigation into the public disclosure of Sherrill’s military records following a Democratic outcry, POLITICO’s Ry Rivard and Madison Fernandez write.
| | | BEST OF THE REST WARNING SIGNS: Hamas is likely to reject the Trump administration’s proposal to end the war in Gaza, the BBC reports. A “senior Hamas figure” told BBC that the peace plan “serves Israel’s interests” and “ignores those of the Palestinian people,” and that Hamas is unlikely to agree to disarming and handing over their weapons — a key condition of Trump's plan. “Hamas is also said to object to the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) in Gaza, which it views as a new form of occupation.” Reminder: Trump has given Hamas “three or four days” to accept the deal or face further Israeli military action in Gaza. DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS: The White House last night withdrew E.J. Antoni’s controversial nomination to head up the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN’s Kristen Holmes and Adam Cancryn report. It comes two months to the day since Trump fired then-BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, whom he accused of rigging the monthly jobs report. Antoni, the Heritage Foundation’s chief economist, was nominated in August. The White House will announce another pick “soon,” and Antoni will stick around at Heritage. Backdrop: “The withdrawal comes after CNN’s KFile reported earlier this month that Antoni operated a since-deleted Twitter account that featured sexually degrading attacks on Kamala Harris, derogatory remarks about gay people, conspiracy theories … A person familiar with the matter said GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski had declined to meet with Antoni, potentially raising concerns that his nomination was in trouble.” AND ANOTHER U-TURN: The White House also pulled Brian Quintenz’s nomination to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late yesterday, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Declan Harty scooped. Though smaller in scope than the BLS, the CFTC oversees multiple financial markets, including several on crypto. The withdrawal will no doubt be welcome news to Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the crypto billionaire twins who privately lobbied Trump to reconsider, as POLITICO scooped in July. IMMIGRATION FILES: U.S. District Judge William Young ruled that the Trump administration’s efforts to deport pro-Palestinian scholars are a “great threat to Americans’ freedom of speech” and an intentional effort to suppress protest on campus, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. Young, a Reagan appointee, criticized Trump personally, calling him a bully who “ignores everything.” Read the opinion SCHOOL TIES: Trump announced a tentative deal with Harvard to end its feud with the administration, POLITICO’s Mackenzie Wilkes writes. If Harvard agrees, “then their sins are forgiven,” Trump said. It comes after Harvard won a recent court ruling blocking the administration’s attempt to freeze $2 billion in research funds. WHAT K STREET IS READING: “Why K Street is now living in fear of Trump’s retribution campaign,” by POLITICO’s Caitlin Oprysko and colleagues: “Donald Trump’s attempt to jawbone Microsoft into firing former Biden DOJ official Lisa Monaco as a top D.C. operative has put K Street on high alert about who they hire. h.” TURNING POINT RETURNS TO UTAH: There were emotional scenes last night as Turning Point USA returned to Utah for the first time since the killing of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with thousands of young people attending last night’s event at Utah State University. TUNE IN: POLITICO is hosting its Policy Outlook: Cybersecurity event at 8:30 a.m. today. As cybersecurity challenges continue to disrupt institutions around the world, POLITICO will speak with key leaders on how they are addressing these challenges in real time. Key interviews include: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Kemba Walden, former acting national cyber director under the Biden administration, and more. Click here to register to attend and watch the livestream
| | | | Don’t just keep up with policy shifts — set the pace. POLITICO Pro’s Policy Intelligence Assistant combines unmatched reporting with advanced AI to deliver sharper insights, faster answers, and two powerful report builders that turn intelligence into impact. Try it free for 30 days. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | BOOK CLUB: Former VP Kamala Harris’ book has sold 350,000 copies in its first week — putting it on track to become this year’s best selling memoir. CULINARY CORNER: “How the restaurant class of 2015 changed D.C. dining,” by WaPo’s Tim Carman and Warren Rojas SPOTTED: Dennis Quaid had dinner last night at Joe’s with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He also met with President Donald Trump, VP JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) yesterday. OUT AND ABOUT — The Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute hosted its 14th annual Trade & International Affairs Symposium yesterday. The program featured keynote remarks from Albert Ramdin, the secretary general of the Organization of American States. SPOTTED: Sally Laing, Antonio Garrastazu, Daniel Diaz-Balart, Dan Kim, John Weber, Karis Gutter, Michael Schumpp, Tracey Chow, Wadi Gaitan, Jordan Dickinson, Maria Luisa Boyce, Katherine Morley, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mary Ann Gomez Orta, Roberto Estrada Lobo, Roger Noriega, Leo Muñoz and Ana Irene Delgado. — NewsNation’s Leland Vittert held a book party last night in New York, celebrating the release of “Born Lucky: A Dedicated Father, a Grateful Son, and My Journey with Autism” ($26), co-hosted by Sally Susman and Mike Allen. SPOTTED: Dan Abrams, Colby Hall, Batya Ungar-Sargon, Hena Doba, Gary Rosen, Eleanor Hawkins and Jonathan Leibner. MEDIA MOVES — Adam VerCammen is now SVP of revenue for The Hill. He previously worked for the Washington Times. TRANSITIONS — Tanya Stockdale-Morineau is now membership development manager at Ned’s Club. She most recently worked at the State Department and Vital Voices. … Claudia Hernandez will be national press secretary and senior writer at the AFL-CIO. She most recently worked at the Immigration Hub. … Kimberly Hamm has joined Morrison Foerster’s Congressional Investigations Group as co-chair of the practice. She previously worked for Mayer Brown, and is a Kevin McCarthy and SEC alum. … … Daniel Kliman is joining GMF as SVP for global power shifts. He previously worked in the DOD’s Defense Innovation Unit. … Ashley Haines is now comms director for Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.). She previously worked for Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.). … Michelle Villegas Tapia has joined Deliver Strategies as a principal. She previously worked on the Harris-Walz campaign and is a DNC alum. ENGAGED — Alma Caballero, managing director at McLarty Associates and Jaime Wills, geotechnical engineer at Sener Engineering & Systems recently got engaged in London. They met on the dance floor at a mutual friend’s wedding in Colombia. Pic WEDDING — Rowan Humphries, global advocacy officer at the International Press Institute and Jeffrey Gorham, senior manager for policy and engagement at the American Council on Renewable Energy, recently got married in Charlottesville, Virginia. They met while studying abroad in Bologna, Italy. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) … Tim Reitz … CNN’s Ben Pershing, Brian Todd and Evan Semones … Jose Del Real … Tommy Andrews of Squire Patton Boggs … Yousi Fazili … Tim Hannegan of Penn Avenue Partners … Alex Gleason of the Surety and Fidelity Association of America … AEI’s Joe Antos … POLITICO’s Andy Goodwin and Marie French … Rob Seidman of FGS Global … Heather Reams of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions … Laura Fullerton of House Foreign Affairs … Daniel Clifton … Fenway’s Ben Krauss … CRC Advisors’ Mike Thompson … Nichole Francis Reynolds … Alisa La of McDonald’s … Moh Sharma of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office … Michael Koplow … Kenny Cunningham of Cunningham Communications … Jennifer Storipan of Lot Sixteen … Brook Ramlet … Adam Frisch of The Welcome Party/PAC … Open Philanthropy’s Sharon Yang … Theo Yedinsky Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Christine Mui’s name.
| | A message from PhRMA: Biopharmaceutical companies are doing our part to protect American patients and workers by investing in U.S.-based manufacturing and infrastructure, providing patient assistance and launching AmericasMedicines.com to connect patients and businesses to direct purchase programs.
We will also continue to work with the administration and Congress to address the real reasons U.S. medicine prices are higher by requiring PBMs to share savings with patients, fixing the 340B hospital markup program and forcing foreign governments to pay their fair share for medicines. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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