| | | |  | | By Ali Bianco | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Rachel Umansky-Castro Happy Sunday afternoon. I’m Ali Bianco, taking the lead today. Send me your thoughts.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
“I don’t know what affects the shutdown, honestly,” Sen. James Lankford told POLITICO. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: It is the 26th day of the government shutdown. There are six days until the open enrollment period for health insurance plans through the Affordable Care Act opens. There are nine days until this standoff sets a new record. With both sides dug in, the messaging this week is only expected to pitch up with no concrete ending in sight and cliffs looming on the horizon. Across the country, Americans will be faced headfirst with annual premiums spiking by an average of 30 percent next year, as WaPo recently reported, and that sticker shock is set to hit as soon as tomorrow when window-shopping on Healthcare.gov begins ahead of open enrollment. All told, combined with no extension of the Covid-era ACA tax credits, many will see their premiums double or triple in price. And it’s not just ACA coverage that is spiking: Premiums for people with coverage through an employer have gotten so expensive that, as LA Times’ Phil Galewitz puts it, “average cost for family coverage is now about the same as a new Toyota Corolla hybrid.” Underlining the debate is a steady drumbeat of polling showing that an extension of the Obamacare tax credits is deeply popular with Americans. Just look at KFF News’ survey released earlier this month, which found 78 percent saying Congress should renew the credits. But both sides are stuck, and there’s been no real movement for weeks, Democratic and Republican aides told Playbook. “People are going to be very aware of what this means for them, it becomes very personal, very fast,” one Democratic aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Democrats’ thinking, told Playbook. Despite a consistent stream of pressure points throughout the standoff up to now, nothing has yet reached an inflection point forcing either side to cave. There was the first missed paycheck for some troops in mid-October, sweeping layoffs handed down by OMB Director Russ Vought, more missed paychecks for federal workers last week — including air traffic controllers, as flight delays and disrupted air travel continue across the country. Another test for how the shutdown is playing outside the halls of the Capitol will likely come in next week’s elections in Virginia and New Jersey, which will come on the same day that this shutdown matches 2018’s record if no deal is reached before then. But even next week’s elections might not be enough motivation to move either party off their positions, POLITICO’s Nick Wu, Jennifer Scholtes and Mia McCarthy write this morning. At this point, we all sound a bit like Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.): “I don’t know what affects the shutdown, honestly.” Republicans are holding firm that they won’t negotiate with Democrats unless they vote to reopen the government. “We still very much see this as a funding debate, as a conversation about getting up and running,” one Republican aide told Playbook. “We can’t negotiate when you’re holding the government hostage because you're using that as your only leverage.” But this is the pinching moment that Democrats have been sounding the alarms for the past month, another Democratic aide told Playbook. That messaging will only ramp up this week to get a deal on the credits with Nov. 1 rapidly approaching. “[Republicans] recognize that there's an issue, and these are their own constituents,” the aide said. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he doesn’t see Democrats gaining from the standoff. “No, our focus continues to be on driving down the high cost of living for everyday Americans. Donald Trump and Republicans promised that they would lower costs on day one. We know costs haven't gone down,” Jeffries said. “That's what this fight for us is all about.” But the Nov. 1 deadline is likely to come with no changes unless top GOP leadership sends a message blessing a negotiation. Democrats aren’t counting on it with President Donald Trump out of the country for the week. “Short of him issuing a statement on Truth Social today saying, ‘I want to deal by the time I get back,’ I don't see any major shifts happening,” one of the Democratic aides said. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told CNN’s “State of the Union” that he believes Trump wants the government closed so that he can exercise “king-like” powers. “He can open up the parts of the government that he wants. He can pay the employees who are loyal to him,” Murphy said. “This is part of what happens in totalitarian states.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune also isn’t expecting Trump to tip the scales. He told POLITICO’s Jordain Carney that a breakthrough will likely have to come from negotiations between members across the aisle. “At some point something is going to have to give,” Thune said. “I think they’ve been hoping against hope that Trump would sweep in and rescue them but something is going to have to come from the rank-and-file.” Behind the scenes: There’s been concern building within the Republican caucus about what to do about the ACA tax credits, lacking unity on what the solution should be, as POLITICO’s Alex Gangitano and colleagues reported. They’ve taken those concerns up to Trump and the White House, who remain nonplussed about any urgency emanating from Democrats to deal with the subsidies. Among the options: Negotiations on a possible subsidy extension could include cracking down on “phantom” Obamacare enrollees, which would earn pushback from Democrats and set off a larger fight for Republicans who have spent years denouncing the program, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill writes. It could also look like using another round of budget reconciliation negotiations as the route for health care policy, per Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio. As the shutdown stretches on, it’s worth stressing the Republican-passed “clean” continuing resolution funds the government through Nov. 21, which means after this week, it’ll fund the government for less time than the government was shut down — an issue for which leaders are searching for a solution. Meanwhile, the House has been out for well over a month. NYT’s Annie Karni is out with a must-read piece on Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep the House out, largely hoping it will keep his GOP members in line. “It has all created a strange dynamic on Capitol Hill: Mr. Johnson appears to be using the considerable power of the speakership to render the House irrelevant,” Karni writes. Also looming this week: The drying-up of funding for food stamps. Twenty-five states are issuing notices informing SNAP participants that they won’t receive checks next month, POLITICO’s Grace Yarrow reported last week. And the Trump administration said it won’t tap emergency funds to pay for federal food benefits, “imperiling benefits starting Nov. 1 for nearly 42 million Americans who rely on the nation’s largest anti-hunger program,” Grace and Meredith report. What to watch: House Democrats are having an in-person caucus meeting on Tuesday at 6 p.m., with events lined up for Wednesday. House Republicans have a conference call on Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. And there’s always the daily Johnson news conference.
| | | | A message from The Pharmaceutical Reform Alliance: This football season, Americans want to watch their favorite teams - not #BigPharma's ads. Despite regulators cracking down on direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising, industry spending on DTC ads surged this September. Instead of taking meaningful steps to slash prices for Americans, Big Pharma is spending millions to push their products. Read more about how Big Pharma is doubling down on ads nobody wants to see. | | | | SUNDAY BEST … — U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the potential trade deal with China, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We're quite focused on making sure that China buys our agricultural products. It’s soybeans, it’s sorghum, and it’s other things. China actually has not covered up all its soybean needs for December and January. So, they still really need American products. … We expect that China will need to resume those kinds of purchases if they want to have a good deal with the United States.” — Arnold Schwarzenegger on California’s redistricting effort, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Well, I'm not really the spokesperson for the anti-Proposition 50. I just want to defend the kind of work that I have done, because we worked so hard to get the independent redistricting commission in California. … There's this war going on all over the United States, who can outcheat the other one? Texas started it. They did something terribly wrong. And then, all of a sudden, California says, ‘Well, then we have to do something terribly wrong.’” — Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the Venezuelan boat strikes and Trump not consulting Congress, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It’s murder. It's very simple. If this president feels that they're doing something illegally, then he should be using the Coast Guard. If it's an act of war, then you use our military, and then you come and talk to us first. But this is murder. It's sanctioned murder that he is doing. And it's very simple for someone like him to talk about killing people or doing something in the name of war. He's never actually served. He's never actually pulled a trigger.”
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| | | | TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | Join POLITICO and FICO for a policy briefing that delves into the latest obstacles to preventing financial fraud, and the new technologies aimed at protecting consumers. Gain insights from government leaders and industry experts from Aspen Institute, Identity Theft Resource Center, Microsoft Security and more! Register to attend or watch online. | | | | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. POTUS ABROAD: Trump’s tour through Asia is now well underway after he landed in Malaysia this morning to kick off a day of meetings with a gaggle of world leaders. Trump heads to Japan tomorrow, where he’ll meet with new PM Sanae Takaichi, visit U.S. troops and attend a dinner with business leaders on Tuesday. The big one: Top U.S. and Chinese trade officials are projecting confidence after meeting today that the budding trade tensions will cool this week, as Trump prepares to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a comprehensive sweep of the networks, said negotiations have been productive and China will not impose export controls on rare earth minerals, and the U.S. won’t impose 100 percent tariffs on China, POLITICO’s David Cohen writes. What they’re saying: Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang told reporters that they’ve reached a “preliminary consensus,” per WSJ’s Hannah Miao and Chun Han Wong. “I believe that we have the framework for the two leaders to have a very productive meeting for both sides,” Bessent said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” On the future of TikTok, Bessent said the U.S. and China will “consummate that transaction” when they meet on Thursday. The optimism for a trade deal with China follows a flurry of compacts Trump signed today with Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia while also expanding U.S. access to the critical minerals, Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove and Jennifer Dlouhy report. He issued exceptions from his reciprocal tariffs on key exports from Asia, but as NYT’s Katie Rogers and colleagues write, the trade deals didn’t seem to substantially change the countries’ trade relationship with the U.S. Trump also presided over a peace ceremony between Cambodia and Thailand — a war he has taken credit for ending back in July — and said the peace deal would lead to the release of 18 Cambodian prisoners of war, per NYT. Also on the agenda: Trump met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva today and said a potential of a trade deal between the two countries could happen “pretty quickly,” Bloomberg’s Daniel Carvalho and colleagues report. Still to be determined is whether Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump has publicly called for a meeting and told the media to “put out the word,” WSJ’s Timothy Martin and colleagues write. What not to expect: “Trump's initial trade deals in Southeast Asia have gone MIA,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Doug Palmer: “Missing from the agenda: finalizing the splashy trade deals he announced this summer with three of Southeast Asia’s biggest economies. … The struggle to finalize terms with Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines highlights the fragile nature of the handshake agreements the White House rolled out en masse this summer, which didn’t address thorny areas of dispute.” 2. O CANADA: As he traveled to Asia, Trump took to Truth Social to double down on the economic levies against Canada — announcing he’s increasing tariffs on Canada by 10 percent, POLITICO’s Greg Svirnovskiy reports. It’s an escalation of Trump’s moves to end all trade talks with the northern neighbor following an ad out of Ontario that invoked Ronald Reagan to blast Trump’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said they would stop running the ads, but Trump’s attacks only magnified its reach, Bloomberg’s Danielle Bochove writes. Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney are both in Malaysia for the ASEAN gathering, but Trump told reporters he doesn’t “have any intention” to meet with Carney. 3. EYES ON LATIN AMERICA: Argentina’s midterms are underway today — an election that has developed an outsized attention in the White House as Trump looks to ensure Argentine President Javier Milei keeps his hold on power and has tied a $20 billion bailout of Argentina’s economy to his victory in the legislative elections. NYT’s Emma Bubola and Daniel Politi write that despite pressure from Trump, it’s Argentine voters who “have the first chance to grade Mr. Milei since he was elected president in 2023.” Brewing in Venezuela: Venezuela’s regime leader Nicolas Maduro said the U.S. is “fabricating” a war against him and moved to revoke the citizenship of a top opposition leader, Leopoldo López, per AP. 4. WAR AND PEACE: Trump threw cold water on the idea of meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin anytime soon on the war in Ukraine, reiterating to reporters en route to Malaysia that “I'm not going to be wasting my time,” per Reuters. That comes as the administration is preparing additional sanctions to target Russia’s economy if the delay continues on negotiations to end the war, Reuters’ Gram Slattery and colleagues report. Back before Trump’s summer summit with Putin in Alaska, the State Department in a report doubted Putin’s willingness to negotiate — showing notable dissent from a more optimistic report issued by the CIA, WSJ’s Brett Forrest scoops. Meanwhile, in the Middle East: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said U.S. officials are getting information on a potential United Nations resolution or agreement to authorize a multinational force in Gaza, with officials set to discuss the details today in Qatar, per Reuters. That comes as smaller drone strikes continue in Gaza with Israel claiming some individuals continue to threaten attacks against the Israeli military. And WSJ’s Vera Bergengruen has a look at the facility now running aid and security talks for Trump’s peace plan in the outskirts of Israel. Warning signs: Trump warned Hamas to start releasing the bodies of dead hostages more quickly, saying he’ll be watching closely over the next 48 hours to see how many are released. Hamas expanded its search area for the 13 remaining hostages today, per AP.
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| | | | 5. 2025 WATCH: Early voting officially kicked off yesterday in New York and New Jersey as the final sprint to two of the most-watched races of 2025 kicks up, per AP’s Philip Marcelo. New York City is off to a strong start, with a massive first-day turnout: 79,409 voters showed up to the polls yesterday, compared to just 15,418 in the 2021 mayoral race, NY Post’s Anna Young reports. Smart read: “Inside the final stretch of New York’s wild mayoral race,” by POLITICO: “As Mamdani, Cuomo and Sliwa barrel to Election Day, POLITICO's New York team breaks down the current state of play.” 6. 2028 WATCH: Former VP Kamala Harris suggested her time in politics isn’t over, saying in an interview with the BBC that she remains confident a woman will be president and it could “possibly” be her. “I am not done,” she said. “I have lived my entire career as a life of service and it’s in my bones.” While she hasn’t made a decision on 2028, it’s her strongest sign yet that she could enter the race. Also teasing a potential run is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who told CBS’ Robert Costa in an interview that he would give “serious thought” to a White House run after next year’s midterms end. “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” Newsom said. “I’d just be lying. And I’m not — I can’t do that.” The next generation: A young conservative podcaster, Allie Beth Stuckey, is emerging as one of the most popular figures on the right for “a swath of conservative Christian women ranging from dyed-in-the-wool true believers to prairie-core MAHA moms,” WSJ’s Elizabeth Bernstein writes. “Stuckey’s followers see her as heir-apparent to [Charlie] Kirk, whom she counted as a friend, colleague and adviser.” … Another young woman on the Democrat side is courting a massive platform ahead of the next major election: Hope Walz, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s daughter who has half a million followers on TikTok, USA Today’s Jay Stahl reports. Thinker: “Debate Shows Are Having a Moment. Here Come the Democrats,” by NYT’s Ken Bensinger and Jessica Testa 7. DEMOLITION DEPOT: Despite onerous building regulations that govern much of Washington D.C.'s properties, not to mention historical homes, the White House isn’t subject to any of that zoning, permitting and regulation, WSJ’s Annie Linskey and colleagues report in a must-read report on Trump’s latest makeover project. “He is involved with every aspect of planning, asking granular questions about the floor color, the height and width of the windows and the precise positioning of the building on the White House grounds, according to administration officials. Companies have brought product samples to the Oval Office for Trump to review, and he has kept materials in the dining room off the Oval as he weighs design choices.” More materials: Trump dismissed reports that he’s planning on naming the new ballroom after himself, telling reporters they’re “probably going to call it the presidential ballroom or something like that,” ABC’s Katherine Faulders writes. For a look at the sheer scale of the proposed ballroom, which will almost double the main White House footprint, WaPo’s Aaron Steckelberg and colleagues have the helpful graphics. 8. WHAT K STREET IS READING: “Binance founder’s pardon shows power of Trump allies on K Street,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Barnes: “Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao is a remarkable turn of fortune for the entrepreneur who just over a year ago was serving prison time for allowing money launderers access to his cryptocurrency trading platform. … For Zhao and his company Binance, the pardon represents a fresh start in Washington, emblematic of Trump’s friendly attitude toward the crypto industry and soft approach to regulation. For the lobbyists who helped make the pardon happen, it’s a show of force that embodies the shifting power on K Street toward firms with direct ties to the Oval Office.” 9. PROMISES KEPT?: “How Trump’s promise of free IVF fizzled,” by POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly: “The White House’s decision to stop short of an IVF mandate or taxpayer-funded program highlights the power that social conservatives and anti-abortion advocates still wield within the administration … administration officials held a briefing call for a select group of activists ahead of last week’s announcement to address their fears of a coverage mandate. … Their influence ensured that no employer is obligated to cover IVF, that no federal funding supports it, and that new coverage options can include alternative fertility treatments promoted by groups who oppose abortion.”
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | MEDIAWATCH: “Under Trump, Voice of America Is Down but Not Out,” by NYT’s Minho Kim: “But while the Trump administration has largely succeeded in its efforts to permanently shrink parts of the federal bureaucracy it doesn’t like, the battle over V.O.A. and other federally funded global news outlets is far from over.” OUT AND ABOUT — Peter Baker and Susan Glasser hosted a party for Julia Ioffe’s new book, “Motherhood: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy” ($27), which is already a finalist for the National Book Award. SPOTTED: Christian Schmidle, Elisabeth Bumiller, Steve Weisman, Toria Nuland, Bob Kagan, Michael and Afsaneh Beschloss, Adam Kushner, Lulu Garcia-Navarro, Hadeel Al-Shalchi, Ari Shapiro, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Melanne Verveer, Phil Verveer, Jason Rezaian, Yegi Rezaian, Evan Osnos and Sarabeth Berman, Elizabeth Kennedy, Steve Sestanovich, Ann Hulbert, Mustafa Akyol, Tyler Pager, John Hudson, Elizabeth Ralph, Tina Nguyen, Leon Wieseltier, Celeste Marcus, Ben Pauker, Indira Lakshmanan, Jamie Tarabay, Megan Stack, Sarah Margon, Gail Ross, David Hoffman, Michael Dobbs, Reema Dodin, Karen Attiah, Shane Harris, Shana Mansbach and Ben Krauss. ENGAGED — Haley Gillman, VP of booking at Newsmax, on Thursday got engaged to Kevin Bernarducci, account executive for ad sales at Newsmax. He proposed at Lobster Club in NYC. The couple met at work. Pic ... The ring BONUS BIRTHDAY (was Saturday): Samantha Tausendschoen HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and Troy Carter (D-La.) … Hillary Clinton … USA Today’s Caren Bohan … Scott Jennings … WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich … Katy Tur … NYT’s Mark Landler and Taffy Brodesser-Akner … Kristin Lynch … Jef Pollock of Global Strategy Group … Rebecca Kern … Alabama AG Steve Marshall … Hazen Marshall … Jessica Church … Cami Mondeaux of the Deseret News … Perry Apelbaum … Amanda Smith … Kim Waskowsky of the House Energy and Commerce GOP … Seth Morrow of Targeted Victory … Christine Stineman … Craig Frucht of Ascend Digital Strategies … Courtney McNamara of IESC … Bianca Brosh … Big Vision’s Caroline Cunningham … POLITICO’s Dani Schafle Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Isabelle Redfield’s name.
| | | | A message from The Pharmaceutical Reform Alliance: Americans want to watch sports, not #BigPharma's ads. And yet, industry spending on direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertisements surged 14% since the summer. Why? Big Pharma knows it has a captive audience as Americans hunker down to watch their favorite teams this football season. Luckily, Washington is taking action. The Trump administration, FDA, and lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have taken critical steps to hold Big Pharma accountable for inundating Americans with harmful - and often intentionally misleading - ads. Bottom line? Americans want lower costs, NOT more ads from Big Pharma. Enough is enough. Read more. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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