| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On the Playbook Podcast this morning, Jack and POLITICO’s Megan Messerly pick through Donald Trump’s extraordinary achievement in the Middle East and ask — what comes next? Plus: More trade wars with China; Day 14 of the government shutdown … and why not everyone in the Trump administration hates Saturday Night Live.
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| Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. In today’s Playbook … — Trump celebrates peace in the Middle East – now the hard work of keeping it begins. — Another day, another ramping-up of the trade war with China. — Shutdown Day 14 … and Johnson says we’re headed for the longest ever.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump poses for a photo during the world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war on Oct. 13 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. | Suzanne Plunkett/Pool via Getty Images | HE’S BACK: A triumphant Donald Trump landed back in D.C. in the early hours of this morning after what we can surely mark down as his greatest 24 hours as U.S. president. ICYMI: Trump’s whirlwind victory lap of the Middle East gave the president everything he has craved — and everything which has eluded him — since he was first elected in 2016. Ownership of a historic diplomatic achievement; the respect of rich and powerful world leaders on a public stage; plaudits even from his political enemies (here’s Joe Biden; here’s Bill Clinton); wall-to-wall homages in almost every media outlet. He even got a Time magazine cover better than the ones he faked. (Sadly, he’s still not happy with the photo.) And Trump seems touched by it all. “I feel good,” he told Playbook’s Dasha Burns on his overnight flight back to D.C., speaking proudly of the “amazing group of people” he’d brought together in Egypt. “[The deal] is getting great reviews,” he said, later adding, “and the press has been very respectful. For a change.” Validation’s a wonderful thing: Trump even addressed the press pack directly from the stage in Egypt, and it was a far cry from his usual shouts of “fake news” during MAGA rallies. “I want to thank the media,” Trump said. “You've been so respectful on this deal … It was so pleasant to watch: I was on the plane for quite a while listening to the various newscasts, and they were all fair. They were talking about how incredible this is.” And here’s the truth: Trump deserves the plaudits. This was an international moment which perfectly matched the president’s skillset. Ask yourself this: How many of Trump’s recent predecessors would have turned the screws so effectively on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the moment of truth, and in such a public way? (Remember these pics?) How many would have been able to simultaneously threaten and cajole Hamas to this point? How many would also have developed such cosy relationships with Middle East strongmen? How many would have bombed Iran? There are plenty of good reasons why past presidents might have taken a different approach on any or all of these issues — humanitarian reasons; pro-democracy reasons; loyalty to allies; fear of escalation. But Trump sticks to his instincts, and this weekend it all paid off. Families have been reunited and lives have been saved. But here’s another truth: You won’t find many seasoned Middle East observers who are confident yet that any of this is for keeps. Behind the grand “3,000 years” proclamations and “PEACE 2025” banners, what we really saw yesterday was, in the end, a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. Few — if any — of the intractable problems which have beset the Middle East for decades have been figured out. Does Trump truly appreciate this? It doesn’t sound like it. “Now the rebuilding begins: The rebuilding is maybe going to be the easiest part,” the president told leaders at yesterday’s summit. “I think we've done a lot of the hardest part … The rest comes together. We all know how to rebuild.” Reminder: It’s not just tower blocks which need rebuilding in Gaza, but a de facto (or maybe de jure) state with functioning governance structures, a working security apparatus and civilised relations with its neighbors. Militias must put down their weapons. Sworn enemies must learn to live side-by-side. As the WSJ’s Asia Editor Andrew Dowell writes in a must-read analysis piece, it all feels quite a reach. “Trump wants to quickly pivot from a Gaza cease-fire to the thornier problem of a broader peace in the Middle East,” he writes, “betting that two years of war transformed the region so much that decades-old animosities can be set aside.” Rolling the dice: “It is a gamble that … flouts traditional thinking about the intractable problems at the heart of the region’s problems,” Dowell says, “and it risks inflaming tensions between Israel, Palestinians and the broader Muslim world.” And familiar cracks are already beginning to show, he notes, with widespread Arab resistance to Netanyahu’s attendance at yesterday’s summit. (In the end, Bibi didn’t show up.) Any detail on what comes next is worryingly thin. Asked by the BBC last night about Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s call for a two-state solution, Trump replied: “You’re talking about a different plan. I’m talking about rebuilding Gaza. I’m not talking about single-state, or double state or two-state … At some point I’ll decide what I think is right.” But in the meantime, Trump will inevitably be moving on. Today he’ll meet with Argentine President Javier Milei at 1 p.m. to discuss the $20 billion not-a-bailout of Argentina's economy. Then at 4 p.m. he’ll be solemnly awarding a posthumous medal of freedom to Charlie Kirk. Plans to send the military into Chicago and Portland may well move ahead this week, courts permitting. And Trump must surely involve himself in the federal government shutdown before long. By Friday he’ll be onto the next war, welcoming Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Oval Office to discuss the possible use of Tomahawk missiles against Russia, as the FT scooped. Of course, Trump can delegate. But even his tireless “everything envoy,” Steve Witkoff — who met with Hamas leaders in person last week to get the peace deal over the line, per Axios — may find himself stretched thin. After all, Trump was pitching him a whole new peace deal with Iran yesterday, and then added: “But if you don't mind, Steve, let's focus on Russia first.” Do the president and his team really have the skill and the staying power to turn this magical moment into a lasting peace in the Middle East? The world can only cross its fingers and wait. | | | | A message from Evernorth Health Services: Controversy around GLP-1s and how much pharmaceutical companies want Americans to pay for them continues to rise. Which is why we offer a benefit that ensures members pay no more than $200/month out of pocket for certain GLP-1s for weight loss. That's not a middleman. That's an advocate.
See how Express Scripts Pharmacy Benefit Services is advocating to make GLP-1s more affordable for millions here. | | | | TRADING PLACES SHIPS FOR BRAINS: The latest phase of the U.S./China trade war kicked in this morning, even as Trump seeks publicly to de-escalate tensions with President Xi Jinping. Drastic new port fees on all U.S. and Chinese ships that use one another’s docks are now in place — just the latest tit-for-tat trade barrier between the world’s economic superpowers. And Trump’s new tariffs on imported furniture, kitchen cabinets and lumber also kicked in this morning, per the NYT, with China one of the countries most affected. But the bigger issue remains China’s revival of hardline export controls on rare earths, which first sent the White House into a tailspin last week. Each side is waiting for the other to blink; Bloomberg News reports; each believes it ultimately has more leverage But but but: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — the Trump administration’s eternal “good cop” — told Fox Business yesterday that the two countries did talk over the weekend about how to dial tensions down. Chinese officials in town this week will have staff-level meetings with U.S. counterparts, and Bessent said he thinks the planned Trump-Xi summit in South Korea will go ahead later this month. But he also warned that the U.S. could get tough with countermeasures — including the expulsion of thousands of Chinese students. Every crisis an opportunity: Strikingly, the Trump administration is seeking to use this clash with China to pile further pressure upon the Supreme Court, as justices consider whether the president’s use of emergency tariff powers is constitutional. “The fact that the People's Republic of China … have so much control over critical supply in the United States of America, that is the definition of a national emergency,” VP JD Vance told Fox News on Sunday. “Unless we have access to this tariff authority, it's gonna be very hard to negotiate with China.” Trump is making a similar case whenever he can. Last week he told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that tariffs have been crucial in agreeing peace deals like the one he struck in Gaza. “The tariffs have brought peace to the world,” Trump said. “And not only here [in the Middle East], but with so many other deals.” Whether any of this stuff convinces Justice John Roberts & co. remains to be seen. | | | | A message from Evernorth Health Services: Controversy around GLP-1s and how much pharmaceutical companies want Americans to pay for them continues to rise. Which is why we offer a benefit that ensures members pay no more than $200/month out of pocket for certain GLP-1s for weight loss. That's not a middleman. That's an advocate.
See how Express Scripts Pharmacy Benefit Services is advocating to make GLP-1s more affordable for millions here. | | | | ON THE HILL SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: The government shutdown enters its third workweek today with still no end in sight. The Senate will vote again on Republicans’ “clean” continuing resolution to reopen the government, though nobody expects it to pass. House Democrats will return to Washington for a caucus meeting; House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on MSNBC yesterday that the GOP is “nowhere to be found.” Found him! Speaker Mike Johnson will hold a presser at 10 a.m., having warned again yesterday that he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats on Affordable Care Act subsidies until the shutdown ends. He also predicted that this could stretch into the longest-ever federal shutdown, per the AP, which would take us well into next month. But but but: Quietly, some Republicans are starting to talk about what a potential deal on ACA credits could look like, POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim reports, crafting a “menu of options” for negotiations — at some point. Possible ideas include income caps, cutoffs for new enrollees, minimum out-of-pocket premiums and further abortion restrictions. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress. Pain points: Though the Smithsonian’s institutions are now shuttered, and furloughed feds are driving for Lyft or working at gyms, the most serious shutdown ripple effect continues to be the Trump administration’s mass firings of civil servants — both a pressure tactic on Democrats and a way to shrink the federal workforce. Chaos at the CDC: The health agency has now rescinded the majority of its Friday-night-massacre layoffs, saying they were errors, but the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response was still seriously affected, WaPo’s Lena Sun and Paige Winfield Cunningham report. Within HHS, firings that remain in effect also hit the National Center for Health Statistics, the CDC’s D.C. office, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration and more. Enervating Education: Layoffs also decimated the Education Department, AP’s Collin Binkley reports. Offices hit by reductions in force this weekend included those that oversee civil rights, grant funding and special education, bringing the agency — which Trump wants to abolish — to less than half its size when his second term began. News from the skies: Half a dozen airports around the country are refusing to play a message from DHS Secretary Kristi Noem that blames Democrats for the shutdown and related air travel delays, saying it violates policies or the Hatch Act, per WaPo. MEANWHILE, IN THE BACKGROUND: Both Republicans and Democrats are eyeing legislation to bolster the H-1B visa program in the wake of Trump’s huge new fees, POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs reports. But it looks like an uphill battle. | | | | Washington is obsessing about shutdown negotiations — and POLITICO is tracking every move.
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | TRAIL MIX RACE FOR THE SENATE: Maine Gov. Janet Mills is set to announce her Democratic Senate bid today, a major recruitment win for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as Dems look to unseat blue-state GOP Sen. Susan Collins with a proven candidate. But unlike in, say, North Carolina, the entrance of a well-known governor doesn’t mean Mills will have a glide path to the nomination: Multiple other Dems are running, including progressive populist champion Graham Platner. And Republicans are already sharpening their attacks on Mills, calling out that the 77-year-old would be the “oldest freshman Senator since America’s founding.” (Collins is a sprightly 72.) Bubble popped: Democrats won’t have similar luck in longer-shot Louisiana, where former Gov. John Bel Edwards said he won’t run for Senate, per The Advocate/The Times-Picayune’s Tyler Bridges. RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: Yet another GOP gerrymander is whirring into gear, as North Carolina Republicans announced they’d seek to redraw the state’s congressional map to seize even more seats than their redistricting effort flipped last cycle, per The News & Observer’s Kyle Ingram. That partisan gerrymander is being challenged in court — but at Trump’s behest, Republicans are now likely to try to pick off Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Democratic Gov. Josh Stein wouldn’t have a say in the matter. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Arizona Democratic congressional candidate JoAnna Mendoza raised more than $690,000 in the third quarter as she seeks to oust GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. … Jamie Ager, a Democrat running against Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), will report pulling in more than $340,000 last quarter. More from the cash dash: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and affiliated committees have raised $8 million in the six weeks since he launched his comeback bid. … In the Michigan Senate race, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers landed $1.6 million last quarter, per the Daily Caller News Foundation’s Adam Pack. NEW ON THE SCENE: Former Georgia state Rep. Vernon Jones, who made waves when he left the Democratic Party and backed Trump, is now running in the GOP primary for secretary of state, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse and Caleb Groves. … LA Mayor Karen Bass picked up a fellow-Democratic challenger in former schools superintendent Austin Beutner, per the LA Times’ David Zahniser and Julia Wick. CLICKER: NBC’s Adam Noboa breaks down the parts of New Jersey that have swung left or right the most over the past dozen years, as the state’s political coalitions shift — and what they mean for next month’s gubernatorial election.
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST FOR PETE’S SAKE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s clash with the Pentagon press corps is reaching boiling point ahead of the department’s 5 p.m. deadline for media organizations to agree to unprecedented new restrictions on their coverage. By last night, a cascade of prominent outlets — including conservative ones — said publicly that they’d refuse to sign: WaPo, NYT, CNN, Newsmax, The Atlantic, WSJ, NPR, the Guardian, The Washington Times, the Washington Examiner, Reuters, POLITICO, Task & Purpose, Breaking Defense and so on. And a crucial detail: Status’ Oliver Darcy reports that Fox News — Hegseth’s own former employer, as well as Trump’s favorite TV channel — is due to join them in a joint statement from all the top TV networks rejecting Hegseth’s new rules. Only One America News is on board with the restrictions so far. It’s hardly a ringing endorsement. The upshot: The standoff raises the prospect that come tomorrow, nearly the entire suite of reporters covering the Defense Department will surrender their credentials rather than submit to Hegseth’s prior-approval requirements, per NOTUS’ Amelia Benavides-Colón. Hegseth posted a series of waving-goodbye emojis on X in response. MAGA MILITARY: As Portland and Chicago await legal decisions on Trump’s efforts to deploy the military for domestic law enforcement, the president told reporters he will hold off on using the Insurrection Act for now. “I don’t have to go there yet, because I’m winning on appeal,” he said. But Trump made clear he’s ready to move, referring to its use by past U.S. presidents. SCHOOL DAZE: The Trump administration is now offering all colleges and universities a deal providing preferential access to federal money in exchange for agreeing to Trump’s ideological priorities, Bloomberg’s Liam Knox scooped. Related long read: “Inside the Trump Administration’s Assault on Higher Education,” by The New Yorker’s Emma Green: “How conservatives learned to stop worrying and love federal power.” WEAPONIZATION WATCH: In the U.S. attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia, Trump-loyalist leader Lindsey Halligan has now ousted previous interim head Maggie Cleary, CNN’s Kristen Holmes and Katelyn Polantz scooped. Inside DOJ: NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Alan Feuer went deep on Deputy AG Todd Blanche, who they report has occasionally stood against the politicization of the Justice Department but “more often than not enabled” it. Notably, they report that he and AG Pam Bondi connected over a “mutual disdain” for FBI Director Kash Patel, and that Blanche has sometimes disagreed with Ed Martin, a driving force behind the weaponization of law enforcement. Some MAGA figures are starting to question Blanche as too timid, though the White House says there’s no daylight between him and the rest of the team. ‘EDDINGTON’ IN REAL LIFE: “As electricity bills rise, candidates in both parties blame data centers,” by Semafor’s Dave Weigel in Gainesville, Virginia: “While the issue isn’t yet a flashpoint in statewide races, it’s already an overwhelming source of debate in local ones, especially in Virginia.” | | | | Introducing Global Security: POLITICO’s weekly briefing on the policies, regulatory battles and industrial shifts shaping defense and security across continents. We connect what happens in Washington, Brussels and beyond to what gets funded, what gets built and who benefits. Subscribe now to access the free preview edition. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | OUT AND ABOUT — Terry and Dorothy McAuliffe hosted more than 350 people at their home last night for a fundraiser for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger. In his remarks, McAuliffe said the evening brought in about $2.2 million between the Democratic Governors Association and Spanberger, calling it the “largest gubernatorial fundraiser in Virginia history.” Former President Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Spanberger also delivered remarks. SPOTTED: Reps. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.) and Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), Carlos Del Toro, Tom McMillen and Jim Moran. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — James Hewitt is joining Hanwha Global Defense as director of strategic comms. The NSC alum joins former deputy national security adviser Alex Wong, who is chief strategy officer at the company. TRANSITIONS — Gabriela García-Ugalde will be deputy comms director for the House Oversight Dems. She previously worked for Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.) and is a Biden White House alum. … Jordan Banegas is now director of strategic projects at Proven Media Solutions. He previously worked at the Institute for Justice and is a Susana Martinez alum. … … Randall Thomas is now a partner at Morgan Lewis. He most recently worked at the IRS’ Office of Chief Counsel. … Zachary Lee is joining Gentry Locke as a partner. He previously was acting U.S. attorney for the Western District of Virginia. WEEKEND WEDDING — Meghan Pearce, who works in Steptoe’s trade policy practice and studies law at American University, and William Lull, credit manager at HASI, got married Saturday at Foundry United Methodist Church, with a celebration at the Omni Shoreham Hotel. They met at Denison University. Pic, via Kir Tuben Photography … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) … CBS’ Bob Costa … R Street’s Eli Lehrer … POLITICO’s Bianca Quilantan and Erin Aulov … Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute … Emily Atkin … Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government … Ira Shapiro … Tucker Foote of Mastercard … Melissa Maxfield … CNN’s Annie Grayer … Brian Bond … FGS Global’s Mike Feldman … Daniel Castro of the Center for Data Innovation … Microsoft’s Dave Leichtman … Anang Mittal … NBC’s Emma Dulaney … Isabel Milán … AP’s Stephen Ohlemacher … Davis Polk’s Neil MacBride … Sophie Martino of Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Ala.) office … Grace Christin Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | A message from Evernorth Health Services: Lowering costs. Improving patient access. Supporting long-term health. Express Scripts Pharmacy Benefit Services is making it all possible through better GLP-1 benefits. Benefits delivering better care for millions by ensuring members pay no more than $200/month out of pocket for certain GLP-1s for weight loss. And it's not just their patients who are benefiting from this first-of-its-kind offer. They're helping to lower costs for health plans, unions, government agencies, public sector organizations, and more. Savings that allow them to expand access to more patients without breaking their budgets. That's not a middleman. That's an advocate.
See how Express Scripts Pharmacy Benefit Services is advocating to make GLP-1s more affordable for millions here. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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