| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha tee up one of the biggest weeks of the year in U.S. politics … and meet the newest (and youngest) member of the podcast team.
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| Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, grateful for all your tips and messages about dressing up for Halloween — and even more grateful to everyone who advised that drinking whiskey on your porch to keep warm/sane is allowed. We all had a wonderful time. But let’s be honest — nothing over Halloween weekend was more terrifying than watching the Commanders last night. Good grief. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — THE POLITICO Poll: A majority of Americans fear increasing waves of political violence and think it’s likely a political candidate will be assassinated in the near future. That’s one of several bleak takeaways from the inaugural installment of The POLITICO Poll, a brand new project in partnership with Public First that will produce a monthly survey to measure public opinion across a broad range of policy areas. More from POLITICO’s Erin Doherty … And read on for more … In today’s Playbook … — An outsized week of politics with elections, SCOTUS and the shutdown all in the spotlight. — New POLITICO polling reveals more disturbing trends of political violence. — And which Donald Trump nemesis recently got happily married? Scroll on to find out.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
The New York City mayoral race is drawing a wealth of media attention, with Zohran Mamdani as the frontrunner a day before Election Day. | Adam Gray for POLITICO | BRACE, BRACE: We talk a lot about “big weeks” in politics — but the next few days will set the scene for 2026 like little else this year. Tomorrow, millions of voters will cast their ballots in seismic state and citywide elections across the east and west coasts of America. On Wednesday, all eyes will turn to the Supreme Court for one of its most significant cases of 2025 — on Trump’s era-defining use of tariffs. And the government shutdown is about to become the longest in history. Could we finally see some movement? 24 HOURS TO GO: Candidates in key states and cities across America will make their final pitches to voters today ahead of Election Day. Of the four big races across the country, it’s the New York City mayoral — and specifically, Democratic frontrunner Zohran Mamdani — still attracting the most media attention. But it’s the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia that will tell us where the two parties stand right now; and the redistricting ballot in California that will play the most direct role in next year’s all-important midterms. So there’s plenty for political geeks to look forward to tomorrow night. Where’s Trump’s head at? Slowly engaging with the matter in hand. The president has tele-rallies scheduled tonight for both Virginia and New Jersey; and last night he (or his staff) pumped out five rapid-fire Truth Social posts on the two gubernatorial races, hoping to put a thumb on the scale. But in Trump’s big interview with “60 Minutes” last night — undertaken exactly a year after he launched a $15 million lawsuit against the same show — it was his intervention on New York that proffered the most interesting election lines. Trump told CBS’ Norah O’Donnell he’d likely cut federal funding to NYC if Mamdani wins, before essentially endorsing his rival Andrew Cuomo. “If it's gonna be between a bad Democrat and a Communist,” Trump said, “I'm gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time.” Kiss of death: Naturally, the endorsement instantly went viral … on Mamdani’s Instagram page. “Congratulations, @andrewcuomo,” Mamdani wrote. “I know how hard you worked for this.” Ouch. City that never sleeps: For someone who has literally been campaigning the entire year — that viral “Halal-flation” video was published way back on Jan. 13 — Mamdani still gives every impression of living his best life. He spent Saturday night campaigning in various nightclubs until the early hours, dancing and whooping into mics. And he spent Sunday bouncing around the city watching sports: first the NYC marathon; then NFL in a bar in Queens with Bills Mafiosa Kathy Hochul; then the second half of the Knicks game in the nosebleed seats at Madison Square Garden. Amazingly, nearly 750,000 New Yorkers have already cast their ballots via early voting, per the NYT — with turnout looking strong among younger voters. Further NYC reading: POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman is out this morning with a list of 5 things we’ve learned from watching Mamdani on the campaign trail. (Yes, Mamdani is moderating his views, Jason notes — but also carries more baggage than previously thought.) … CNN has a fun profile of New York's likely next first lady, Rama Duwaji — a 28-year-old artist from Texas, of Syrian descent. … And Fox News notes former U.K. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, expelled from his party over his response to an antisemitism scandal, spent yesterday campaigning for Mamdani. Further viewing: SNL did a decent skit of a three-way NYC leaders’ debate on Saturday. Watch it here.
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Explore our ongoing work. | | | | SEE YOU IN COURT? After the election results have rolled in on Tuesday night, attention will shift Wednesday to the arguments being heard in the Supreme Court for one of the landmark cases of the year. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (Tariffs) might not sound like the jazziest court hearing on record, but make no mistake — this is going to be one for the history books. The justices must decide whether Trump was right to claim in April that a national emergency gave him the power to unilaterally impose trade tariffs on imported goods, upending decades of free-trade hegemony. Where’s Trump’s head at? Very much engaged with this one — though he said last night he won’t now be attending Wednesday’s hearing in person, as he doesn’t want to “distract from the importance of this decision.” “It will be, in my opinion, one of the most important and consequential decisions ever made by the United States Supreme Court.” For once, Trump may not be exaggerating. And there’s more to come: The tariffs case is just the first in a series of landmark SCOTUS decisions over the extent of presidential powers. “In November, the court will consider whether to strike down a 90-year-old precedent that insulates independent agencies from White House interference,” WaPo’s Justin Jouvenal notes. “In January, it will explore whether Trump can remake the Federal Reserve, with its vast powers over the economy. Taken together, the cases will determine the extent to which the Supreme Court will embrace Trump’s view of a presidency constrained by few checks and wielding the type of authority typically only seen in times of war or national crisis.”
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| | | | GAME OF SNAP: Trump has also — surprise, surprise — been weighing in on the other big storyline of the week: the (currently still-distant) prospect of an end to the government shutdown. The first big question is whether his administration will step in to fill the gap on SNAP funding following last week’s court ruling that it must do so. Reminder: Trump was given a noon Monday deadline to respond, as NBC reports — and last Friday said he hopes to push through the payments, if the court can offer guidance as to what’s legally possible. Ironically, covering food aid payments could take some of the heat off the Democratic Party to cut a deal, just as it seemed both sides might be ready to move forward. After all, November is of course upon us and Obamacare open enrolment is very much underway, piling pressure on the GOP to find a solution. And as POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus and Nicholas Wu report, the shutdown will hit the record 35-day mark on Tuesday night. Plenty of Republicans still believe Dems will cut a deal after that point, with Tuesday’s elections safely out of the way. But but but: Republicans have not been terribly good at calling this shutdown so far. Dasha revealed Friday night that White House officials had been running an informal pool at the start of the shutdown over how long the whole thing would last. The longest anyone predicted was 10 days. In the meantime, Trump continues his one-man campaign to kill the Senate filibuster, last night posting his third epic plea to his party inside three days. “TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER, NOT JUST FOR THE SHUTDOWN, BUT FOR EVERYTHING ELSE,” he wrote on Truth Social, all-caps preserved. “WE WILL GET ALL OF OUR COMMON SENSE POLICIES APPROVED (VOTER ID, ANYONE?) AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! REMEMBER, THE DEMOCRATS WILL DO IT IMMEDIATELY, AS SOON AS THEY GET THE CHANCE.” Decoding Don: The nod to “voter ID” looks like a suggestion to nervous Republicans on the Hill that canning the filibuster now would give them the chance to pass legislation that boosts their prospects at the next election. Sadly for Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already made clear he’s not interested. “That’s too bad,” Trump mused when told on CBS last night of Thune’s comments. “I like John Thune. I think he's terrific, but I disagree with him on this point.”
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | POLITICAL VIOLENCE MORE FROM THE POLITICO POLL: The survey shows that the grim perception — and increasing acceptance of — today’s violent political stage is a point of consensus, POLITICO’s Erin Doherty writes. And it gets worse: “Perhaps most troubling, a significant minority of the population — 24 percent — believes that there are some instances where violence is justified. There was little partisan divide in that belief, but a strong generational one: Younger Americans were significantly more likely than older ones to say violence can be justified. More than one in three Americans under the age of 45 agreed with that belief.” These are difficult numbers for the nation to wrestle with. The weeks following Charlie Kirk’s killing saw endless arguments over which side is responsible for the surge in political violence. Our poll ultimately found little partisan divide — 24 percent of Trump voters said “there are some instances where violence is justified," compared with 21 percent of Kamala Harris voters who said the same. WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING: Asked by O’Donnell on “60 Minutes” about his “message to those on the left and the right who would seek to commit acts of violence,” Trump blamed Democrats. “Well, I think primarily on the left. A little bit of both, but I think primarily on the left. I think they have to tone it down,” Trump said. “It’s a lot of the rhetoric. Look, they call me a Nazi all the time. I'm not a Nazi. I'm the opposite. I'm somebody that's saving our country.” AFTER CHARLIE KIRK: Erika Kirk, head of Turning Point USA and Kirk’s widow, has given her first sitdown televised interview since her husband’s killing to Fox News’ Jesse Watters. In a preview released yesterday, Watters asked Kirk whether she feels safe. “What are they going to threaten me with? Going to heaven sooner to be with my husband?” Kirk asked. “I'm not afraid. Charlie wasn't afraid either.” The interview will air during Watters’ show on Wednesday. Watch the clip
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| | | | WAR AND PEACE THE NUCLEAR OPTION: The nuclear testing that Trump wants to resume will not include nuclear explosions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday, clarifying plans to test “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they’re working, NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs reports. “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests,” Wright told Fox News. “These are not nuclear explosions.” TO ZELENSKYY, WITH LOVE: Trump told reporters yesterday that he’s not considering sending long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine — at least for now. “Sometimes you have to let them fight it out,” Trump said, per NYT. CONCEPTS OF A PLAN: Trump remained vague on the specifics of his threat to go in “guns-a-blazing” in Nigeria for what he blasted as the persecution of Christians, but speaking with reporters yesterday on the way to D.C. — he said the plans “could be” U.S. troops: “I envision a lot of things.” On the ground, Nigerians “described a mixture of confusion and fear” over what Trump could mean, WaPo’s Rachel Chason and Abiodun Jamiu report from Senegal. ROCKING THE BOAT: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s office shared guidances with DOD officials requiring them to seek approval before speaking with Congress or lawmakers on all “sensitive military operations” — including the strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin America, CNN’s Natasha Bertrand writes. And while some GOP lawmakers like Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) have largely backed the attacks, he stopped short of endorsing land strikes on Venezuela. A land operation would require “a longer conversation,” Crenshaw said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” per POLITICO’s Cheyanne Daniels. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel announced yesterday that it received the remains of three more hostages from Hamas, per AP. The Qatari PM said on CNN that the country is working to make sure the ceasefire in Gaza holds, per POLITICO’s David Cohen. Trump, speaking on CBS, insisted the ceasefire is “not fragile” — “If I want [Hamas] to disarm, I'll get 'em to disarm very quickly. They'll be — they’ll be eliminated. They know that.”
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Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST IMMIGRATION FILES: Overnight, a federal judge extended the order blocking the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, through Friday, keeping the troops in limbo, CNN’s Danya Gainor and Karina Tsui report. The judge’s decision yesterday “while not final, suggests she’s likely to side with the states of Oregon and California, and the city of Portland, who say the president’s efforts to deploy troops is unlawful.” The view from the White House: Trump told “60 Minutes” he believes his administration’s immigration raids “haven’t gone far enough,” while blasting the judges that have ruled against him. He continued to leave the door open to invoking the Insurrection Act as he pushes against crime in major Democrat-run cities, saying “if you had to send in the Army or the Marines, I'd do that in a heartbeat.” 2026 WATCH: Despite attacks over past offensive comments and a 20-year-old chest tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, Maine senate candidate Graham Platner is moving full steam ahead, NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Brennan Leach report. In a wide-ranging interview, Platner said he’s “very proud of who I am today” and insisted he’s still a more “electable” candidate than Democratic rival Gov. Janet Mills. “It is amusing for me to watch the campaign described in the media as collapsing or falling apart — when internally, we frankly have not felt this strong since the beginning,” Platner told NBC. 2028 WATCH: “‘I’m not sure anyone would run against those two’: How Vance and Rubio came out on top,” by POLITICO’s Diana Nerozzi: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance have become each other’s primary sounding boards in the West Wing as the pair work together to help shape and execute President Donald Trump’s foreign policy … Rubio — the nation’s top diplomat and Trump’s national security adviser — spends most of his time not at the State Department but inside the White House, where he makes use of the NSA office … Their working relationship, always closely examined, is newly under the microscope this week after Trump again intimated that Vance and Rubio are his two most-likely successors.” RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: Indiana’s special session to redraw the Hoosier State’s congressional maps could kick off any day now. Gov. Mike Braun called for the special session to begin today, but action is on ice for now as Republican leaders say they aren’t ready to convene as members try to shore up support. NYT’s Mitch Smith writes how Indiana’s Republicans are still split over the idea, with state Sen. Greg Goode taking the issue directly to voters, who largely rejected redistricting as “changing the rules in the middle of the game.” Don’t hate the players: Kevin Coughlin announced he’s dropping out of the race against Ohio Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes after her district became more Democratic under the state’s new map. “I do not see a path to victory and I cannot ask our supporters to continue to invest their time and treasure into this race.”
| | | | Global Security is POLITICO’s new weekly briefing on the policies and industrial forces reshaping transatlantic defense. From Washington to Brussels and beyond, we track how decisions ripple across borders — redefining the future of security and industry. Sign up for the free preview edition. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | CONGRATULATIONS — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) announced overnight that he has married former congressional staffer Carolyn Grace Moffa. “Carolyn … and I first met professionally over a decade ago when she worked for Senator Rand Paul,” he wrote. “As Senator Paul’s Ag policy staffer until 2016, Carolyn was a very early proponent and practitioner of Making America Healthy Again. She even visited me and my late wife Rhonda on our grass-fed cattle farm several years ago … We will reside on the farm in Kentucky where Carolyn recently helped me re-establish ducks and chickens.” SPOTTED at the wedding in Kentucky last month, per Massie: Paul and Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.). TRUMP TO THE RESCUE? Trump said he’s “on it” in the race to save the life of “Dilbert” comic strip creator Scott Adams, who needs urgent treatment for metastasized prostate cancer. IN MEMORIAM — “Harvard Institute of Politics Director Setti Warren Dies Suddenly at 55,” by The Harvard Crimson’s Elise Spenner and Tanya Vidhun: “Setti D. Warren, the director of Harvard’s Institute of Politics and former mayor of Newton, Mass., died suddenly at his home on Sunday. He was 55. … Warren led the IOP since July 2022, serving first as interim director before assuming the permanent position in March 2023. He had previously served as the mayor of Newton from 2010 to 2018, in the Clinton White House, and as a staffer for former U.S. Senator John Kerry.” OUT AND ABOUT — Over 400 people gathered for the Halloween party of the year at Ned’s Club Washington, D.C.’s Sinister Seance featuring DJ Farrah Flosscett on Friday. SPOTTED: Sharon Yang, Jake Denton, Tahera Zamanzada, Anastasia Dellaccio, Joiwind Ronen, April Boyd, Aakash Thakkar, Kristi Riggs, Keenan Austin Reed, Jennifer Griffin, Susanna Quinn, Emma Mears, Quincy Jones, Jim Acosta and Liz Landers, Ami Becker Aronson, Brooke Pinto, Kimball Stroud, Gloria Nauden, Christina Sevilla, Courtney Rosellini, Doug Thornell, Jenna Groesch, Ja’Ron Smith and Juleanna Glover. — D.C.’s Cruel Kids Halloween event at the Saint Yves nightclub hosted by CJ Pearson (who dressed like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries) drew a MAGA-filled crowd of 600, per Daily Mail’s Victoria Churchill. It was headlined by rapper Rick Ross. White House Staff Secretary Will Scharf came dressed in a fluorescent vest reading “Ballroom Construction Team.” IN THE CROWD: Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.), Matthew Foldi, Greg Price, Jon Levine, Morgonn McMichael and Andre Soriano. TRANSITIONS — Jordan Bonfitto is joining Invariant in its food and agriculture group. He previously worked at USDA. … Lauren Chou is joining Sherrod Brown’s Ohio Senate campaign as comms director. She most recently worked at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and is a Debbie Mucarsel-Powell alum. … Victoria Garrastacho is now counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). She previously worked on the House Judiciary Committee. … … Lisa Hofflich is now managing director at Bolton-St Johns. She previously worked at Public Partnerships LLC. … Jordan McGillis is joining the Economic Innovation Group as a fellow. He previously worked at City Journal. ENGAGED — EC Wheatley, strategic alliances director at The Herald Group, and Jack O'Brien, a special adviser at the EPA, got engaged in Georgetown on Saturday. They met at Wofford College in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Erica Mason McQuade, assistant director of government relations at Northwestern Mutual, and Kevin McQuade, senior manager at Accenture Federal, welcomed Everett Michael McQuade on Oct. 24. He is named after both of their fathers and joins big sister Rory. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) … Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) … Quentin Fulks … CAA’s Rachel Adler … Jenn Pellegrino … Jeff Brownlee … Phyllis Cuttino of the Climate Reality Project … Christie Stephenson … Paul Brathwaite of Federal Street Strategies … Michael Dukakis … Punchbowl’s Anthony Adragna … Renuka Rayasam … Katie Fricchione … Gabby Adler … Amie Kershner … CVS Health’s Tara Rountree and Amy Rosenbaum … Brian Babcock-Lumish … Christian Haines … Shawn Rusterholz … Stuart Rosenberg … Sky Gallegos … Bob Van Heuvelen … Charlie Hurt … former Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.) … Anna Wintour … Julian Gewirtz … POLITICO’s Ryan Hendrixson … Katie Packer Beeson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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