| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss Donald Trump’s big announcement this morning … and why it’ll still get overtaken by the fallout from Tuesday’s elections. Plus — what happened when the makers of the buzziest movie in D.C. finally came to town?
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| Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. Drop me a line. START YOUR DAY with the man of the moment, New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who spoke with my POLITICO colleague Joe Anuta for four-and-a-half questions to unpack Tuesday’s results. Mamdani says he’ll draw his mandate not from hitting a 50-percent voter threshold, but from the million-strong turnout of his supporters, suggesting he’s “completely changed” demographic trends that showed young Americans shifting toward the right. Mamdani also says lowering the cost of childcare and rent will be his top first year priorities. Paging AOC: But it’s the final question — er, half question, that’s the most revealing, in Democratic circles at least. “Lightning round!” our man Joe says, with what can only be a gleam in his eye. “Should Chuck Schumer face a challenge in 2028?” Mamdani’s spokesperson swiftly interjected: “I'm sorry, Joe, we gotta go.” “One lightning round?” our dogged reporter pleads. Then Mamdani finally answers for himself. “I’m focused on this transition, my brother,” Mamdani replies. “But thank you.” Sometimes silence is the loudest noise of all. In today’s Playbook … — After a crushing set of elections, Trump is talking about “affordability.” Will it work? — We got the juice on Doug Sosnik’s midterm memo. — And it’s Day 37 of the shutdown. Surely now they’ll do a deal … right?
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Trump’s drug deal: Trump has an 11 a.m. Oval Office “announcement” on his schedule … and Dasha hears this should be the long-trailed deal to cut the cost of obesity drugs. The president said last month he hoped to strike an agreement with drugmakers to reduce the bill for wildly popular GLP-1 medications like Wegovy and Zepbound to $149 a month. CNN’s Adam Cancryn reported the announcement could be coming this week — and here we are.
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Republicans are now urging President Donald Trump to focus more on household issues over the coming months. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE DUST SETTLES: Trump’s GOP is not a party prone to introspection, but Tuesday’s election shocker has hit home. “We got our asses handed to us,” said Vivek Ramaswamy. “A disaster,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) called the results a “shellacking,” and Steve Bannon hailed a “blowout” for Dems. Even Fox News host Jesse Waters admits Democrats had a “great night.” And Trump admits it too, to a degree. “I don't think it was good for Republicans,” he said. “I'm not sure it was good for anybody — but we had an interesting evening, and we learned a lot.” So what did they learn? For all the initial noise about poor candidates, Republicans clearly understand the fundamental problem they face: that the oldest cliche in modern U.S. politics — it’s the economy, stupid — still holds true. Cost-of-living issues were the central reason Trump won in 2024, and the central reason Republicans lost badly this week. Unsurprisingly, then, Republicans are now urging Trump to focus more on household issues over the coming months, and less on the global dealmaking (and war-making, and peacemaking) which have been a surprisingly central feature of his second term. Advice from the War Room: “I think what [critics are] going to throw at him is that President Trump hasn’t focused on any of this,” Bannon told POLITICO’s Megan Messerly. “And the Democrats are doing it, and that’s why they’re winning from the suburbs of Northern Virginia to the suburbs of New Jersey … You have to combat that … I think President Trump will go around and maybe give more speeches and [do] more things domestically, maybe take a few less international trips for the next six months or so, and just get focused back with the American people.” And the White House agrees. “I think you’ll see the president talk a lot about cost of living as we turn the year and into the new year,” James Blair, the political director for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and the RNC who now serves as deputy chief of staff, tells Dasha, in an exclusive interview for “The Conversation” that airs in full tomorrow. Blair said Trump “is very keyed into what’s going on” and the president will be “very, very focused on prices and cost of life.” But here’s the problem: Like so many second-term presidents before him, Trump loves the foreign leader stuff. Just look at his upcoming itinerary: Tonight he welcomes leaders from central Asian countries to the White House, for talks on rare earth minerals and a working dinner. Tomorrow he’s got Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán coming for a high-profile lunch. And after a weekend in Florida on the golf course, Trump returns to the Oval Office Monday … to welcome the new leader of Syria for talks. Is all this really going to stop? And there’s more: The far bigger problem still for the GOP is that Trump is actually constantly talking about the cost of living. But his message to voters struggling with their bills is not that he has a plan to deal with them, but instead a worrying echo of his ill-fated predecessor, Joe Biden — don’t worry, everything is fine. Just check out Trump’s interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier yesterday, his first since the election defeats. “We've done so much,” Trump told Baier. “Energy is way down … We're going to have $2 gasoline. I did that. That brings everything else down. Groceries are way down, other than beef. Now, beef is going to come down … I was two days in office and they tell me about eggs, I solved that … The fact is, we have prices way down.” For Trump, the issue isn’t the cost of living: it’s Republican messaging. “The country is doing very well,” he went on. “But as Republicans, you have to talk about it. Because if you don't talk about it, you know, I saw [the Dems] kept talking about affordability. Well, Biden was a disaster with affordability … It's no good if we do a great job and you don't talk about it. And I don't think [Republicans] talk about it enough.” Can Trump really convince struggling voters they’ve got this wrong? Every poll has affordability topping voters’ concerns, and has done for months. Check out this latest survey from swing-state Arizona, shared exclusively with Playbook by Grayhouse, which shows affordability way out in front in voters’ list of concerns. Almost twice as many people surveyed chose affordability as their top concern, compared with the GOP’s strongest issue — borders and security. The kicker? The poll has Democrats beating Republicans on dealing with affordability by eight percentage points.
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Learn more. | | | | ONE YEAR TO GO FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new Sosnik memo: What does all this mean for next year’s midterms? And what about 2028? Your Playbook author will cede the ground here to the always-essential Doug Sosnik, who shares with us this morning his latest state-of-play memo with 10 takeaways as we begin the yearlong campaign to 2026. And look away now, Dems — because the onetime adviser to President Bill Clinton is warning of structural roadblocks to any blue-wave election in 2026. “Historical trends are no longer an accurate predictor of the outcome of midterm elections,” Sosnik warns. He says the nationalization of local politics and the rise of education as a “fault line” in American politics provide a likely cushion for the GOP next year. And there’s more: The historically low number of competitive seats and the GOP’s ongoing redistricting efforts mean retaking the House will be a real challenge for Democrats — though there’s a fascinating kicker to that: “redistricting efforts could backfire,” Sosnik notes. “In their attempt to create more Republican-leaning seats, they could make some of these redrawn districts more vulnerable to Democratic candidates in a blue-wave election.” And as for 2028? Even if there were a blue wave election in 2026, that should not be seen as a good predictor for the next presidential race, Sosnik writes. Historic trends back this up — see Republicans’ historic gains in 1974 and 2010, or the Dems’ successes in 2022. And crucially, “the pool of voters in off-year and mid-term elections is quite different than in presidential elections,” with Republican supporters much more likely to turn out for the high-profile events. Read the full memo
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| | | | SHUTDOWN DAY 37 WILL THEY, WON’T THEY: After Tuesday’s blowout elections, some Democrats feel the wind beneath their wings to push the longest shutdown in history still further — but there are definite splinters within the party on whether to proceed. Push and pull: The party’s Nov. 4 gains are bolstering members who want to dig in for a health care deal, even as about a dozen rank-and-file members are negotiating a potential off-ramp, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. Senate Democrats are holding a special caucus meeting today to discuss their broader shutdown strategy. But at least nine Dem senators are pushing not to fold, per Axios, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is also urging Senate Democrats to “stay the course and hold the line,” POLITICO’s Nick Wu writes. More on the shutdown endgame from POLITICO’s Inside Congress The Trump factor: Trump, of course, is now finally stepping into shutdown conversations — but his proposed solution, to ax the filibuster, has flummoxed senators, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Eleanor Mueller write. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told the Daily Caller’s Adam Pack that the “practical reality” is his chamber simply doesn’t have the votes for the nuclear option — “not even close,” he said. Deal or no deal: Still, the bipartisan talks moved forward yesterday, with some saying that a deal could be finalized in days to fund the government through December and vote on a handful of full-year funding bills. Republicans say they’re getting close to finalizing the “minibus” of funding bills for several federal agencies, Jordain and Meredith Lee Hill report. Meanwhile, the stakes are only growing higher. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced yesterday the FAA is ordering a 10 percent cut in flights across 40 major airports, sending airlines and passengers alike into a scramble, Reuters’ David Shepardson and Rajesh Kumar Singh report. Funding is also now on hold for a $4 billion program helping millions pay their energy bills for heating in the winter. That could prove the next big shutdown flashpoint, per WaPo’s Joanna Slater.
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| | | | TRAIL MIX 2026 WATCH: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — who has fought off multiple efforts to flip a battleground Maine district that Trump carried last year — announced he is not running for reelection, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and Andrew Howard report. He wrote in an op-ed that his reasons include the rise of political violence, and the impact on his family. Quick math: His exit will buoy state auditor Matt Dunlap, who was attacking Golden from the left in a primary challenge. But it also creates opportunity for former Gov. Paul LePage to take the seat for the GOP. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the district from toss-up to leans Republican. Live from New York: Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) is facing a primary challenge from former DNC Vice Chair Michael Blake, who’s slamming Torres on his fierce support for Israel, POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg and Melissa Russo scoop. BOOM TIMES: “Bolstered by big wins, Dems eye out-of-reach Senate races,” by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider: “Before Democrats flipped at least 13 Virginia House of Delegate seats and won gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia by double-digit margins Tuesday, their chances to snag seats deep into Trump territory seemed out of reach. Now they’re feeling more bullish. … According to half a dozen donor advisers, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, major donors are now ‘waking up’ after holding onto their cash following Trump’s sweeping victory last year.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cash dash: Stronger America is launching a new one-million-dollar ad buy supporting incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins starting tomorrow in Maine, running on statewide TV and digital. The new buy brings the total to $4 million spent this year by Stronger America in Maine. Watch the ad EYES EMOJI: “Marjorie Taylor Greene Is Telling People She Wants to Run for President,” by NOTUS’ Reese Gorman: “She has confided to colleagues that she wants to run for president, according to four sources familiar with the matter, including one who has spoken with her directly about it. One source says conversations have centered around her belief she is ‘real MAGA, and that the others have strayed,’ and that she has ‘the national donor network to win the primary.’” Greene called it a “baseless” report, asking NOTUS in a text: “Who is your source? Laura Loomer?”
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➡️ Subscribe to West Wing Playbook | | | | | BEST OF THE REST COP OUT: The world's biggest climate change summit, COP30, is kicking off today in Brazil, as leaders negotiate new emission targets to combat global warming, POLITICO’s Sara Schonhardt reports. But the Trump administration won’t be present: For the first time in a decade, the U.S. is skipping the talks. Instead, Trump is ramping up a global push to promote U.S. fossil fuels. But guess who will be in Brazil, trying to look statesmanlike? Hello, Gavin Newsom. ROCKING THE BOAT: The Senate is voting at 5 p.m. to discharge the resolution that would block the Trump administration from taking military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. But POLITICO’s Joe Gould and Connor O'Brien report that some Republicans are wavering on whether to support it. The White House has started sharing more information with Congress in the lead-up to the potential vote to get lawmakers on its side. Case in point: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed lawmakers yesterday about the strikes following frustrations over lack of transparency, Reuters’ Patricia Zengerle and Bo Erickson write. ANOTHER LOOMING ESCALATION: “U.S. Military Draws Up Nigeria Plans, With Limited Options to Quell Violence,” by NYT’s Helene Cooper: “The Air Force could conduct airstrikes on the few known compounds in northern Nigeria inhabited by militant groups, officials said. … And American forces could team up with Nigerian soldiers to raid villages to root out insurgents … These were all part of the options that officials with United States Africa Command drew up this week, defense officials say, to forward to the Joint Staff at the Pentagon.” ON THE GROUND IN CHICAGO: A federal judge ordered major improvements at Illinois’ Broadview detention center, calling its conditions “disgusting” and unconstitutional, WSJ’s Mariah Timms reports. … Chicago parents say immigration agents turned quiet neighborhoods into “war zones,” with tear gas affecting children as young as two, NBC’s Natasha Korecki writes … A Chicago daycare worker was arrested by immigration agents during morning drop-off, leaving children and parents shaken, AP’s Elliot Spagat and Sarah Raza report. AFTER CHARLIE KIRK: Erika Kirk gave an emotional interview to Fox News reflecting on her husband Charlie Kirk’s life and killing. Speaking with Jesse Watters, Kirk said: “I never saw the video, I never will see it … there are certain things you see in your life that mark your soul forever.” … Kirk’s Turning Point USA held a tour stop at Auburn University last night, during which Trump himself phoned in to speak with Eric Trump, Lara Trump and Andrew Kolvet. NO PRIZES FOR GUESSING WHO’S WINNING THIS ONE: “FIFA Will Award Its Own Peace Prize Next Month in Washington,” by NYT’s Tariq Panja: “The association said on Wednesday that it would bestow the award, officially called FIFA Peace Prize — Football Unites the World, next month in Washington … during the draw for next year’s World Cup at the Kennedy Center… The award is meant to ‘reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace,’ FIFA said in a statement.” Reminder: Trump is best pals with FIFA boss Gianni Infantino, and will be at the Dec. 5 draw.
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Explore our ongoing work. | | | | | | | | POLITICO’s Global Security briefing connects the policies, deals, and industrial shifts shaping the global defense landscape. From Washington to Brussels, we follow who’s funding what, what’s being built, and how power moves across continents. Subscribe now for the free preview. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | WHAT A BLAST — Hollywood royalty was in town last night to discuss one of the buzziest movies in D.C. circles right now — Kathryn Bigelow’s anxiety-inducing nuclear thriller, “House of Dynamite.” This is the Netflix film in which an overseas enemy fires a nuke at Chicago, and (spoiler alert) America’s missile defenses fail. The Pentagon hates the movie, sending round an internal memo — leaked last month to Bloomberg — insisting its real-life missile defense tests “tell a vastly different story.” So last night Bigelow came to D.C. to fire back, if you will. And she brought with her not just NBC chief-turned screenwriter Noah Oppenheim, but also one of the many high-level ex-military officials who advised on the movie, former STRATCOM Commander Dan Karbler. “I would have to resort to all the technical advisers we consulted,” Bigelow told a packed-out screening at the Navy Memorial, hosted by Puck. “That was basically how we arrived at the data in the script.” Numbers game: Oppenheim said the key statistic in the film, that only 61 percent of U.S. missile defense tests have actually been successful (“so it’s a f--king coin toss?” the movie’s incredulous secretary of Defense exclaims) “is accurate.” He noted the Pentagon’s most recent tests have “been more effective than the previous ones,” but added: “They’d have to do a lot more successful ones to bring that stat up.” Your Playbook author did not rest easy in bed. SPOTTED at last night’s screening, hosted by Puck's Leigh Ann Caldwell: Vice Adm. Frank Whitworth, Col. Dave Butler, Michael Feldman, Marc Gustafson, Martha Raddatz, Tyler Pager, Darlene Superville, Tammy Haddad, Yemisi Egbewole, John McCarthy, Claude Marx, Michelle Sara King, Colin Moneymaker, Sonja Thrasher, Michael Block, Sumi Somaskanda, Cat Zakrzewski, Marianna Sotomayor, Margaret Mulkerrin and Connor Hartnett. FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — Jury deliberations will resume today ahead of a verdict in the case of Sean Dunn, aka the “sandwich guy,” who’s facing potential misdemeanor assault for throwing a Subway footlong at a federal officer patrolling the district, NBC’s Ryan Reilly writes. The evidence is really worth your time: “The sandwich did not impede Officer [Greg] Lairmore’s duties that night,” the defense argued. “A footlong from Subway could not, and certainly did not, inflict bodily harm.” The jury could deliver a verdict today. ESSENTIAL READING … NEXUS OF D.C. — Vanity Fair’s Aidan McLaughlin writes from Bob Barnett’s memorial service: “At a DC power broker’s memorial, politicos including James Carville, Jesse Watters, and Anthony Fauci gathered to eat focaccia sandwiches, swap memories, and place literal bets on the future of the country (Piers Morgan owes James Carville $1,000).” NEWS YOU CAN USE — Compass Coffee is launching a new fund to give out free coffee and food to federal workers. Any federal worker can stop by any of their locations once a day for a free drink and a free food item with a valid federal agency ID. OUT AND ABOUT — POLITICO hosted a happy hour celebrating the launch of the new POLITICO Poll, in partnership with Public First, at Ciel last night, where our colleagues Alex Burns, Adam Wren, Jonathan Lai, Erin Doherty, Brakkton Booker and Public First’s Seb Wride dug into the new partnership. SPOTTED: Ashley Etienne, Rich Luchette, Megan Apper, Andrew Bates, Sharahn Thomas, Tanya Ballard Brown, Cassandra West, Christina Thompson, Marisol Samayoa, Kendall Witmer, Marcus Robinson and Travon Jackson. — Widehall's Steve Clemons hosted a reception honoring Andrew Oros, the new director of the Stimson Center's U.S.-Japan Program last night, where Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Takehiro Shimada, and Paige Cottingham-Streater delivered toasts. SPOTTED: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Alex Allaire, Bill Anaya, Wes Konishi, Kent Knutson, Hideyo Amiya, Sharon Stirling, George Bogden, Kristi Rogers, Gloria Dittus, Ben Chang, Peter Elkins-Williams, Lyndsay Polloway, Joseph Gagnon, Frank Jannuzi, James Mazzarella, Robb Harleston, Kazuyo Kato, Shaila Manyam, Julian Mueller-Kaler, Todd McCracken, Yogi Nagamori, Samuel Oswald, Stephanie Polis, Alejandro Roark and Yuko Mukai. — Charlie Dent led a conversation at the DLA Piper offices last night on foreign affairs and national security with David Cameron and Nicholas Burns, followed by a reception. SPOTTED: Guyanese Ambassador Sam Hinds, Iraqi Ambassador Nazar Al-Khirullah, Italian Ambassador Marco Peronaci, Moroccan Ambassador Youssef Amrani, Lloyd Hand and Kate Gonzalez, Mike Carlson, Christine Enemark, Jonathan Weisgall, Susan Pascocello, Dmitri Alperovitch, Chris Simmons, Jonathan Nabavi, Curtis Lu, Josh Dickson, Bruce Cathell, Jim Blanchard, Saxby Chambliss, Tony Calabrese, Karina Lynch, William Minor, Steve Phillips, Alex Pinson, Brandon Rios, Tony Samp, Vincent Sarubbi and Michael Sorensen. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rising stars: NewDEAL is announcing its Fall 2025 Leadership class, a group of 25 center-left politicians from across the country that will be names to watch among the party in the future. They join the ranks of Mallory McMorrow, Ruben Gallego, Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg, all of whom are either members or alumni. Among the leaders: North Carolina AG Jeff Jackson, Iowa state Sen. Matt Blake, Delaware Lt. Gov. Kyle Evans Gay, Pennsylvania state Rep. Jennifer O'Mara, Georgia’s Macon County Mayor pro tempore Seth Clark, Mississippi state Sen. Rod Hickman and more. See the full list MEDIA MOVE — Sagnik Basu has joined WaPo’s opinion team as its new executive multimedia producer. He is a content creator who previously worked at Fox Media. TRANSITIONS — Focal Point Strategy Group is adding Julia Ezell-Thomas as VP of creator engagement and Michael Feldman and Ally Kehoe as VPs. Ezell-Thomas previously worked at Accountable.US. Feldman previously worked for the NSC and CISA. And Kehoe previously worked for Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.). … Ed Patru is joining American Beverage as SVP of public affairs. He previously worked at Rational 360. … … James Singer and Daniela Campos Lopez are joining Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) office as comms director and new media director, respectively. Singer joins from Democracy Forward and Campos Lopez joins from Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) office. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) … POLITICO’s Louis Nelson and Kristin Crofts … Dan Senor … American Red Cross’ Eric Mondero … Katie Rosborough … Rob Jesmer of FP1 Strategies and Plus Communications … JoJo Sears … Rachel Weiss of Cigna … Gresham Striegel … American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists’ Rachel Kingery … Josh Protas … Whitney Mitchell Brennan of Honeywell … Rick Nussio … Austin Keyser of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers … Suzanne Granville … former Social Security Commissioner Andrew Saul … Ashley Lewis … former Education Secretary Arne Duncan … Diana Banister … former Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) … Alexis Gurganious of Cox Enterprises … Crystal Sung of Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Texas) office … Sidney Blumenthal … Taj Magruder of Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester’s (D-Del.) office … LSG’s Blair Gremillion … Trish Turner Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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