| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro BREAKING: Former VP Dick Cheney died last night, on Monday, Nov. 3, at the age of 84, the Cheney family announced in a statement this morning. “The former Vice President died due to complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease,” per the statement. On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha tick through the biggest races on the ballot today and tell you everything you need to know to watch Election Day like a pro.
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| Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, childishly excited to be with you on Election Day. Rest assured, I’ll be switching out the tea for gallons of strong black coffee tonight. Wish me luck. In today’s Playbook … — Trump 2.0 faces its first test at the ballot box with elections across America. — This is about to become the longest shutdown in history. Well done, everyone. — And we take you inside the FBI during Kash Patel’s confirmation hearing.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Many of Tuesday's races are set to test President Donald Trump's standing with voters less than a year into his second presidency. | Aaron Schwartz/Getty Images | THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR: The D.C. skies are cornflower blue; the leaves flushed with reds and golden browns. The World Series was spectacular, and the football season is coming nicely to the boil. It’s a glorious time of year to be in America — and especially so for political geeks: For the first Tuesday in November is upon us, and with it the first major elections of the Trump 2.0 era. So get excited: Yes, it’s an off-year. Yes, 2026 is where the real action lies. But millions of Americans will wield their democratic rights today, and real power will change hands as a result. Sparkling political careers will be launched; others crushed into the dust. Runes will be read into next year’s midterms; wild judgments made about Donald Trump and the Democrats. And anyway — if you love politics, you love elections. And we’re all staying up late tonight. The Fab Four: There are a dizzying array of statewide, city and local votes today. But we can focus on the Big Four, the quartet that has sucked up every drop of media attention these past few months. They are of course the New York City mayoral, the gubernatorials in Virginia and New Jersey and the redistricting ballot in California. Let’s whizz through them first, before we come to the rest. NEW YORK, NEW YORK: The race to run America’s largest city is always a thriller, but one man has made the NYC mayoral the standout electoral contest of 2025. Fueled by upbeat charm, some well-made Instagram videos and a relentless focus on the cost of living, Zohran Mamdani has risen from complete unknown to overwhelming favorite in the space of nine months. His political skills are undeniable — check out how he handled these quickfire questions on MSNBC last night — but he’s lucky to face such flawed opponents in Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa. The squeeze: Last-minute Republican efforts to stop Mamdani have focused on trying to push GOP votes toward Cuomo. To that end, the former New York governor yesterday picked up once-unimaginable endorsements from Trump, Elon Musk and — late last night — even Stephen Miller. Naturally, Mamdani has already turned their words into a powerful campaign tool of his own. Final numbers: Literally every poll has Mamdani out in front, and Polymarket gives him a 95 percent chance of victory. But some believe the race has tightened — the Atlas poll yesterday found his lead shrinking to just a few percentage points. So don’t look away just yet. The expert view: “Mamdani is ahead in all the polls, generally by double digits, and he's the Democratic nominee in a Democratic city where Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump by almost 40 points last year. So I'm not looking to see who wins, but rather how much he wins by,” POLITICO’s New York-based senior politics editor Sally Goldenberg tells Playbook. “Mamdani will assume control during a time of political turmoil, federal budget cuts and economic uncertainty,” Sally adds. “His answer to a lot of that is a tax on the wealthy, to fund his agenda. If he gets a mandate — well over 50 percent — he can make a much more compelling case to a state governor wary of a tax increase. If he just ekes out a win, his political adversaries will have an easier time opposing him.”
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Learn more. | | | | MEANWHILE IN VIRGINIA: Democrats are feeling supremely confident in today’s gubernatorial race, and with good reason. No Republican has won the Virginia governor’s race while a fellow Republican sits in the White House since 1973 — and nobody thinks that’s going to change today. Abigail’s party: Frontrunner Abigail Spanberger offered a stridently moderate voice for the Democrats while a member of Congress and represents a very different vision of the party’s future than Mamdani. In 2020, she said Democrats should never “use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again” … It will be quite the irony seeing them billed as the twin faces of Democratic success tonight. Every poll gives Spanberger a decent lead over Republican opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant-governor. Tellingly, Trump has seen the numbers and has not endorsed Earle-Sears — and did not even mention her by name as he tele-rallied for the Virginia GOP last night. Doubtless he’ll be quick to blame the candidate if there’s a heavy Republican defeat tonight. The one blot on the landscape for Dems remains the down-ballot race for attorney general, with their candidate Jay Jones embroiled in a scandal over text messages wishing violence upon an opponent. Polling suggests the AG race is now neck and neck, with Republicans pouring in resources in the hope that incumbent Jason Miyares can split the Democratic ticket. The expert view: “Yes, the question is if Spanberger can carry the whole Dem ticket with her,” POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin writes in. “But it's also if she can outdo former Gov. Ralph Northam's 8.9 percent margin of victory in 2017, and post the largest margin of any modern Virginia Democratic governor. If Spanberger gets into double-digits, she makes a statement not just about her lackluster opponent, but about both Virginia's sweeping rejection of Trumpism and the appeal of a moderate Democratic woman from the suburbs.” JERSEY (UN)SURE: Enter the most fascinating race of the night. New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican president in more than 30 years, nor a Republican senator in more than 50 — and yet its governors’ seat has flipped back and forth throughout. And with Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s second term coming to an end, history suggests it really should be the GOP’s turn. But but but: With the glaring exception of 2021, the other golden rule of Jersey politics since the 1980s has been that the Garden State backs a governor opposed to the party holding the White House. And for this reason it’s Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the former Navy helicopter pilot who represents New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, whom pollsters have out in front. But her lead is small and has narrowed. Her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli came mighty close to winning the governorship last time round, and there’s some optimism within GOP circles that he might pull off an upset this time. That’s not the expected outcome, but it’s certainly possible. And a Republican victory here — or even an agonizingly close defeat — would allow Trump and the GOP to push a positive election night narrative of voters in this once blue state endorsing Trumpism and rejecting the Dems, even in an off-year election. Equally, if Sherrill wins big, then all the gains Trump famously made in New Jersey last year will look to be built on dust. And Dems will start to believe that big wins in 2026 are finally within their grasp. The expert view: “New Jersey’s election, like Virginia’s, will be read as an augur for the midterms, and a test of whether Trump’s better-than-expected six-point loss of the state in 2024 was a fluke or a sign of a long-term realignment of urban Hispanic voters,” POLITICO’s New Jersey Playbook author Matt Friedman writes in. “For New Jersey voters, this comes down to which unpopular thing motivates them more: Trump, who recently threatened funds for New Jersey's most important infrastructure projec t, or eight years of full Democratic control of state government that presided over spiking energy rates.” JMart agrees: “In New Jersey, too, I'm curious about the margin,” he tells Playbook. “If Mikie Sherrill gets beyond what you could call margin-of-error territory (three or four points), it will send a more emphatic message about Trump's decline in the ’burbs — and his party's inability to sustain their 2024 gains with non-white voters.” CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’: When California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced radical plans to overhaul the state’s electoral map this summer in response to GOP gerrymandering in Texas, it seemed an audacious gamble. Such a move would be highly complex, experts warned, requiring a statewide referendum, and fraught with political risk — including a difficult campaign to convince a skeptical public to ditch nonpartisan maps. But less than three months later, the ploy looks like a masterstroke. Polling has the “yes” vote on Newsom’s Proposition 50 miles in front — likely meaning five extra House seats for the Dems in 2026, countering the Republican redraw in Texas. Just as importantly, the gambit has paid off for Newsom himself. Three years out from the presidential election, Newsom currently looks like the closest thing the Dems have to a leader of the opposition. The expert view: “Will enough Republicans, wary of voting by mail, show up on Election Day to make Newsom’s Democratic gerrymander competitive?” asks POLITICO California Playbook author Blake Jones. “Probably not, given Prop 50’s healthy lead in the polls, and the lack of GOP campaigning at this critical stage. But a surge of ‘no’ votes could at least prolong the inevitable, delaying a race call until later this week.” But JMart reckons Newsom won’t want to wait for the final tally. “I'll be watching how quickly Newsom takes his victory lap in front of the cameras,” he tells Playbook. “Methinks it will be well before midnight Eastern. The Californians won't let the east coasters own all of Tuesday night.” That sounds about right. More smart reads from the POLITICO newsroom: “Democrats see Election Night as shot at redemption,” by Elena Schneider and Liz Crampton … “Welcome to a high-drama, high-stakes Election Day in NYC,” by Emily Ngo … “New Jersey’s race for governor puts Trump to the test,” by Matt Friedman and Madison Fernandez … “Welcome (back) to the era of the perpetual gerrymander,” by Sasha Issenberg
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| | | | HOW TO WATCH THE ELECTIONS LIKE A PRO RULE 1: Make sure you’re across some of the less-publicized races, too. “Sure, Mamdani’s going to win,” the well-versed Playbooker should smile condescendingly to colleagues. “But I’ll be watching the Seattle mayoral race for a true insight into Democratic politics in 2025.” Cheat sheet: In Seattle, left-wing organizer and young mom Katie Wilson is trying to topple Democratic Mayor Bruce Harrell, an establishment figure in the city — and polls suggest she has every chance of success. “Katie Wilson is not Zohran Mamdani; Bruce Harrell is not Andrew Cuomo,” the Seattle Times’ David Kroman writes. “And yet the parallels to that race are hard to miss — a young challenger to a political staple as the Democratic Party casts about for a clear direction, and as the price of living becomes untenable.” And there’s more: Keep a close eye on the state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania, where Republicans are pouring money into a campaign to unseat three Democratic justices seeking further 10-year terms in office. Both Trump and former President Barack Obama have weighed in — a sure sign the stakes are high. 2026 pro watchers will also want to follow tonight’s ballot measures in Maine, where Republican efforts to tighten voting rules — introducing photo ID for voters and squeezing absentee ballots — are being fought tooth-and-nail by local Dems. The outcome could be pivotal if next year’s Senate race is as close as some expect. Results guide: If you’re planning an election night in front of the TV, the first results in Virginia are expected around 7:10 p.m. Eastern … New Jersey and Pennsylvania will follow shortly after 8 p.m. … Maine should start to come in from 8:15 p.m. … Then we’re expecting New York City from 9:05 p.m. … California from 11:05 p.m. … and Seattle from 11:15 p.m. Where to watch: Early birds can kick off with CNN at 5 p.m. Eastern, anchored by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash and Kasie Hunt in Washington and Erin Burnett in New York City. Anderson Cooper takes over in NYC from 8 p.m. … MSNBC gets going at 6 p.m. with Jen Psaki and Ari Melber, before the main show hosted by Rachel Maddow begins at 7 p.m. … … ABC News coverage also kicks off at 7 p.m., led by anchor Linsey Davis and featuring correspondents Mary Bruce, Jonathan Karl and more … NBC News Now will start streaming at 7 p.m. with anchor Tom Llamas followed at 8 p.m. by Kristen Welker and Hallie Jackson— and with Steve Kornacki marking his first election night as NBC’s chief data analyst. (Sorry, MSNBC fans.) … … CBS News’ election night special starts at 9 p.m., anchored by Major Garrett. He’ll be joined in-studio by Robert Costa and Weijia Jiang …. And Fox News’ coverage starts (after Hannity, natch) at 10 p.m., co-anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. They’ll hand over to Trace Gallagher at 11 p.m. Final tip: Once the results start pouring in, it’s very important to get yourself on X and post sweeping, know-it-all statements like “I’ve seen enough” and “Stick a fork in it: Cuomo is done.” But be warned: Mamdani memes (of either persuasion) are going to be very passé before the night is out. Have fun! JOIN US: POLITICO and Public First are hosting a live discussion on our new transatlantic polling partnership, The POLITICO Poll, tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. Key speakers include: POLITICO’s Senior Executive Editor Alex Burns, Senior National Politics Correspondent and Playbook Contributing Author Adam Wren, Editorial Director of Polling and Interactives Jonathan Lai, Polling and Campaigns reporter Erin Doherty, National Political Correspondent Brakkton Booker, and Public First’s Head of Polling Seb Wride. Click here to register and here to read more about the new partnership
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| | | | SHUTDOWN DAY 35 FOR THE RECORD: Later today this officially becomes the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, surpassing the record set in 2019. And while there isn’t any real ending in sight, there are definite vibes that we’re approaching the light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe. Mood music: Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters yesterday he feels Congress is getting close to an off-ramp, and that he’s “optimistic” a solution could be found by the end of this week, per POLITICO’s Jordain Carney. And while some Democrats remain dug in with staunch resistance to negotiations, Jordain and colleagues report this morning that “a critical mass of Democratic senators appear to be engaged in serious talks about bringing an end to the five-week stalemate.” More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress Pressure test: Everett Kelley, the head of the largest federal employees’ union, told Dasha in an interview that he spoke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries about the AFGE’s calls for Democrats to end the shutdown. “They’re very well aware of why I’ve taken the stance that I’ve taken,” the AFGE president said. And while Kelley said he understood Dems’ decision to fight, he said he thinks “they've made their point.” Watch the full interview But but but: The timeline for funding is getting trickier with each passing day. “The Senate is expected to extend the Nov. 21 expiration date of the House-passed funding punt for at least several more weeks,” Jordain reports. “GOP leaders are discussing a new deadline that would fall between late January and March.”
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | LAW AND ORDER FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: FBI chief Kash Patel has spent the past week in another online storm, this time over flight logs suggesting he used an FBI jet to go see his country music star girlfriend perform. (Read his response here.) Now an explosive new book out today predicts that further headaches lie in store. In the book, “Injustice: How Politics and Fear Vanquished America's Justice Department” (out today, $32), authors Carol Leonnig and Aaron Davis report that during Patel’s Senate confirmation hearing back in January, several FBI leaders who were “being forced out suspected the presumed future FBI director had just lied to Congress” when he said he had no knowledge of ongoing efforts to carry out “politically motivated” firings at the agency. The juice: The book reports that by the time Patel sat for his confirmation hearing, a group of Patel loyalists referred to as the Director’s Advisory Team had already landed at the FBI, and were “on special assignment” to “help stamp out past weaponization of the Bureau against conservatives, and to identify bad eggs to fire.” Patel on the record: During the confirmation hearing, under questioning from Democratic senators, Patel vowed that “all FBI employees will be protected against political retribution.” When asked whether he was “aware of any plans or discussions to punish in any way, including terminations, FBI agents or personnel associated with Trump investigations,” Patel replied: “I am not.” And when pressed whether he had knowledge of the presence of the Director’s Advisory Team at the FBI, Patel told Sen. Cory Booker: “News to me, senator.” Patel “would later repeat that he had no knowledge of personnel actions at the Bureau,” according to the book. Spokespeople for the FBI and Department of Justice did not respond to requests for comment. First in Playbook: Ankush Khandori read through Leonnig and Davis’ new book and writes in a new column this morning about the “critical lessons for a future administration that wants to focus on serious legal accountability for powerful political figures.” THE COMEY CASE: Federal prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against James Comey issued a new filing last night rejecting the former FBI director’s claim that his prosecution amounts to political retribution. They included the release of private emails showing how Comey at a later date allegedly used a confidant to provide information to reporters, per AP’s Lanna Durkin Richer and Eric Tucker. OUT OF THE HOUSE: The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency’s inspector general, Joe Allen, has been ousted from his role, Reuters’ Sarah Lynch and colleagues scoop. Allen received notice of his termination from the White House after he attempted to provide prosecutors with constitutionally required information.
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Explore our ongoing work. | | | | BEST OF THE REST TRADING SPACES: With the White House braced for tomorrow’s big Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s use of tariffs, aides have been scrambling to create a backup plan based on a “patchwork of other trade statues” in case the court rules against them, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly, Doug Palmer and colleagues report this morning. But “those alternatives are slower, narrower and, in some cases, similarly vulnerable to legal challenge.” Indeed, the very existence of a White House contingency plan shows just how vulnerable Trump’s tariffs could become. NASA, INC.: Billionaire businessman Jared Isaacman authored a 62-page plan suggesting drastic changes to NASA when he was nominated to lead the organization this spring. Now he's facing off with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to lead the agency, that document may complicate things, POLITICO’s Audrey Decker reports. Known as “Project Athena,” the plan “proposes outsourcing some of NASA’s missions to the private sector and treating the government agency more like a business.” LOOMER LOOMS: Laura Loomer, the staunch conservative activist who has at times wielded significant sway over the Trump administration, is now a credentialed member of the Pentagon press corps, “joining a new cohort of right-wing media that have agreed to the Pentagon’s new press policy,” WaPo’s Scott Nover and Drew Harwell report. AUTOPSY REPORT: “Slow rollout throttled Biden’s big clean energy ambitions, former staffers say,” by POLITICO’s Kelsey Tamborrino and Jessie Blaeser: “The document, shared first with POLITICO, said that even as administration officials worked to commit hundreds of billions of dollars to build battery plants, solar farms, electric vehicle factories and other clean energy projects, they underestimated how aggressively the incoming Trump team would seek to undo their programs.”
| | | | Global Security is POLITICO’s new weekly briefing on the policies and industrial forces reshaping transatlantic defense. From Washington to Brussels and beyond, we track how decisions ripple across borders — redefining the future of security and industry. Sign up for the free preview edition. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | MAGA AT WAR — The private drama over Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts’ decision to defend Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Holocaust-denier Nick Fuentes is spilling out into public view. Ryan Neuhaus, Roberts’ former chief of staff who it was reported had been reassigned to a new role, resigned from the conservative think tank, The Hill’s Emily Brooks reported a little after 2 p.m. yesterday. Nearly an hour later, the NY Post reported that senior Heritage staffers were outraged by Roberts’ statement. “Internal chats reviewed by The Post show high-ranking members of the Heritage Foundation told each other privately how ‘embarrassed’ and ‘disgusted’ they were by Kevin Roberts’ ‘ridiculous’ decision,” the Post’s Josh Christenson wrote. One staffer in the chat said it was “the most embarrassed I’ve ever been to be a Heritage employee. It’s not close.” TOP TALKER — “The Battle in Virginia Over an Activist Who Protested Stephen Miller,” by NYT’s Devlin Barrett: “Federal and state criminal investigations into a Virginia woman who distributed leaflets disclosing the home address of a White House official, Stephen Miller, have prompted a secret court fight over the balance between personal safety and free speech at a time of rising political violence, recently unsealed court documents show … The activist, Barbara Wien, has not been charged with any crime, though the Virginia State Police still have her phone.” FOR YOUR RADAR — Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) “and her boyfriend Kyle Pearcy, a real estate broker from Windsor, Colo., attended a Halloween party in Loveland, Colo., on Friday night, in costumes portraying a Mexican woman and an Immigration and Customs enforcement agent, photos obtained by ABC News show. The congresswoman was dressed in a traditional Mexican dress and wore a sombrero while Pearcy wore an ICE vest over fatigues.” PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — “After Smithsonian controversy, Amy Sherald opens to fanfare in Baltimore,” by WaPo’s Kelsey Ables: “Baltimoreans flocked to opening day of ‘American Sublime,’ the exhibition Sherald removed from the National Portrait Gallery this summer.” MEDIA MOVES — James Romoser is now a Supreme Court reporter at the Wall Street Journal. He previously worked at POLITICO. … Jen Judson is now a reporter at Bloomberg News covering the U.S. defense policy and technology. She previously worked at Defense News. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Richard Baum, the former acting director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, is stepping away from his career in government work and preparing to launch his new book, “Inside America’s Opioid Crisis: 12 Hard Lessons for Today’s Drug War,” to be released by Bloomsbury on Feb. 5. TRANSITIONS — Former Sen. and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats is now a senior policy adviser at Liberty Partners Group. … Cooley has added Janet Kim and Sean Quinn as partners in its litigation department. Both previously worked at Freshfields. … Dan Kowalski is joining MO Strategies as VP. He previously worked for the Office of Management and Budget. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) and Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) … Tim Saler … POLITICO’s Mike DeBonis, Noah Baustin and Marissa Scola … Michael Hough … Semafor’s Ben Smith … Laura Bush … MSNBC’s Catherine Rampell … Morgan Mohr … former Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) … Julie Siegel … Kevin McVicker of Shirley & McVicker Public Affairs … Michael Clauser … Jessica Reis of Bully Pulpit International … Gabby Orr … Global Counsel’s Joe Armitage … Casey (Martel) Decatur … Beau Schuyler of Thorn Run Partners … Rick Ungar … former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez … Amanda Thayer … Erik Eykel of Senate Commerce … Jean Roseme … Aaron White of Sen. Peter Welch’s (D-Vt.) office … Julie Tippens … Amanda Eisenberg … Georgetown Law’s Rima Sirota … Avi Berkowitz … Ashley Estes Kavanaugh … Blair Latoff Holmes … Alex Sanz … Maggie McNerney Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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