| | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Adam and Megan Messerly discuss new polling that offers fresh insights on the 2028 presidential field, what Viktor Orbán wants from the White House and more. Listen here Happy Friday. It’s Adam Wren. Get in touch. MUST LISTEN: For this week’s episode of “The Conversation,” we’ve got an election week special. Dasha spoke with New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill about her resounding victory on Tuesday night and with the top Trump political adviser James Blair about what lessons Republicans can take from the results.
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| Fresh off her blowout win, Sherrill cast herself as a doer, not a doomscroller. Her Day One pledge? Declare a state of emergency on utility costs and freeze rates — a proof point for her mantra of “ruthless competence.” She shrugs off weird late polls, credits a record field operation and swing-suburb focus and signals she’ll fight to “claw back” federal resources while pressing Trump world to keep the Gateway project alive. “I don’t run to run campaigns. I run to govern,” Sherrill told Dasha. How do Democrats win back working-class voters? “If I am talking to you about abortion and you cannot pay your rent, then we can’t talk. We’ve got to talk about the first-tier issue,” she said. Blair, President Donald Trump’s top political adviser, said the off-year elections delivered few surprises — and the fix is focus, not panic. Republicans must win the economy argument and stop “spending half of your powder” on issues voters rank below cost of living. He forecasts a sharper prices-and-paychecks message and heavier presidential involvement in ’26. “You can’t get beat on the issue that’s top of mind by 25 points and win,” Blair told Dasha. How much will the GOP lean into Zohran Mamdani as a foil? “I don’t think we’re going to be running against Mamdani. I think we are going to be running against individual candidates and individual districts and individual races,” Blair said. Watch the full episode … Listen and subscribe … Read the Q&A with Sherrill In today’s Playbook … — Who is primed to lead Republicans and Democrats into 2028? Nobody really knows. — John Thune has a new plan to end the shutdown … but Democrats still aren’t biting. — Ukraine is watching as Trump welcomes Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán to the White House.
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VP JD Vance has work to do to cement the base of voters that have turned out forcefully for President Donald Trump. | Al Drago/Bloomberg | THE POST-TRUMP PREP: Republicans got a bleak and bracing look of what facing an election without Trump on the ballot looked like this week. The party’s turnout muscle atrophied, raising warning signs for VP JD Vance and any other potential GOP candidate trimming their sails as they steer toward 2028. “There’s a group of people that have red jerseys on, and there's a group of people that have blue jerseys on. And the ones with the red jerseys are a little less inclined to vote, so that’s a problem for us,” James Blair, political director for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and the RNC, told Dasha Burns on the latest episode of “The Conversation” out today. Trump reshaped the GOP political coalition in 2024, harnessing the power of disengaged, working-class voters in swing states who aren’t reliable voters when he is not on the ballot. No one is likely watching this trend more closely than Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — a duo Trump has recently been anointing as his heir apparents. “I’m not sure anyone would run against those two” in 2028, Trump said. But it’s not clear whether either potential presidential candidate can reverse the MAGA coalition’s disengagement in an election without Trump. Ryan Girdusky, a Republican consultant, rejected the contention that Republicans won’t turn out when Trump’s name is missing from the ballot, pointing to the off-year elections of Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, Ron DeSantis in Florida and Brian Kemp in Georgia. “It’s possible to win, Republicans just need a winning platform,” Girdusky said. Defer to two: Rubio is privately telling confidants that Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he’d support the vice president if he chooses to run, according to those in his orbit, POLITICO’s Diana Nerozzi reports with your author this morning. “Marco has been very clear that JD is going to be the Republican nominee if he wants to be,” said a person close to the secretary, noting that Rubio has expressed that sentiment privately and publicly. “And that he will do anything he can just to support the vice president in that effort.” POLL SITTER: At the end of a week that signaled the starting gun for not only the 2026 midterms, but also wide-open 2028 primaries on both sides, there’s a leadership vacuum atop both parties, according to the new POLITICO Poll. Vance is the top choice to be the 2028 nominee among 2024 Trump voters — but he garners only a third (35 percent) of responses, according to the poll. The question was conducted via free response, allowing respondents to write in their choices. Trump got 28 percent. Variations of “don’t know” came in third at 14 percent, followed by DeSantis (6 percent), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (2 percent), Rubio (2 percent), and Sen. Ted Cruz (1 percent). Variations of “nobody,” general answers, or other and unclear names made up 3 percent of responses. A slew of other names — like former VP Mike Pence, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy — did not even crack 1 percent. Though Trump has flirted with mounting a third presidential bid — a gambit that would violate the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment — he has since backed off. But that’s not deterring voters: Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of respondents who said they want Trump to run in 2028 also indicated they would support amending the Constitution to allow presidents to serve more than two terms. So do 31 percent of those who think Vance should be the 2028 nominee. But Democrats don’t have a clear 2028 choice, either. Former VP Kamala Harris, the party’s 2024 nominee, tops the list at 23 percent — but an equal share said either “don’t know” or “nobody.” The next best option? California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 15 percent. Then there’s a huge gap between those two and the rest of the field: constitutionally disqualified former President Barack Obama sits at 4 percent, and tied with 3 percent are New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. You choose: Who do you consider to be the leader of the Democratic Party? We asked 2024 Harris voters the same question and found a complete lack of consensus. Click through here to make your pick and see how your choice aligns with voters. The poll surveyed 2,051 U.S. adults from Oct. 18-21 and has an overall margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points. (New surveys will be released each month as part of a partnership between POLITICO and Public First, an independent polling company headquartered in London.) As for Republicans, Blair — who now serves as White House deputy chief of staff — said any potential candidate with 2028 ambitions needs to have their eyes set on next year’s midterm races. “I think the number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team, and helping their team, and not focus on themselves,” Blair told Dasha. “That’s what they should be doing. Because frankly, I think that voters will sniff out anybody who has seemed to be sort of focused on themselves, somehow separating themselves or whatever and not the team.” — Samuel Benson contributed to this report.
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune has a new plan to end the shutdown. Democrats still don't seem ready to take it. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | DAY 38: Pain inflicted by the record-setting shutdown will ramp up to a new level today, even as Republicans are expected to propose — and Democrats expected to reject — a novel gambit to end it. There’s growing buzz about a solution, but it doesn’t look within reach yet as Dems dig in following their election victories and Trump still won’t grant them a White House audience. Thune’s move: After the Senate convenes at noon, Thune will bring up the House GOP’s “clean” continuing resolution (as usual). But this time he’ll likely add some changes — a possible new end date in January and a trio of appropriations bills to last the whole year, including for food aid and veterans, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. Those have emerged from bipartisan talks that gained steam recently. Then leadership may keep the chamber working through a rare weekend session. But but but: Democrats indicated that Thune’s new deal won’t be enough for them, and a critical mass will likely keep pushing for more concessions, particularly on health care, per POLITICO’s Inside Congress. And they seem to be mostly sticking together, despite some emerging intra-caucus divides, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Thune’s offer of a date to vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies would be far from sufficient for many Democrats, since Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to do the same, CNN’s Manu Raju and colleagues report. Keep an eye on this: A bipartisan group of senators and representatives will meet today to try to work on a framework for the ACA credits, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy and Nick Wu report. Alternatively, some House Republicans are open to a discharge petition for Democrats to force a vote. More on Democrats’ trust dilemma via POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim SNAP chat: The SNAP benefits lapse is once again coming to a head, after a federal judge in Rhode Island ordered the Agriculture Department to use emergency funds to fund the program fully by today, the Providence Journal’s Katherine Gregg and Katie Mulvaney report. USDA previously said it would pay out 65 percent of the benefits — and that it could take weeks or longer. The judge said the Trump administration had violated his previous order. DOJ instantly appealed the new ruling. NBC’s Daniel Arkin and Aria Bendix capture the stakes as some SNAP recipients have already started to go hungry this week. The other crisis: Almost 700 flights today have been canceled after the FAA ordered cuts due to safety concerns around strained, unpaid air traffic controllers, AP’s Josh Funk and Rio Yamat report. And that number could go higher. The airline industry is now begging Democrats to end the shutdown, POLITICO’s Daniel Barnes reports. Keep an eye out for more news on this from Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy when he sits for a live discussion with Breitbart around 10 a.m. today. And see all the affected airports forced to cut domestic flights by 4 percent starting at 6 a.m. here, via POLITICO’s Sam Ogozalek.
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| | | | LAW AND ORDER THE CRACKDOWN: DHS plans to appeal after a federal judge extended serious limits on immigration agents’ use of force in the Chicago area, excoriating the administration’s tactics and ruling that Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino had lied about tear-gassing residents, the Chicago Tribune’s Jason Meisner reports. “The use of force shocks the conscience,” Judge Sara Ellis said. Meanwhile: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has led weeks of planning with NYC civic leaders for a possible Trump effort to send the military or federal agents into the city, aiming “to deny Trump any pretext … to effectively federalize the city,” POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin reports. Stat of the day: The size of ICE’s population of detainees has now broken another record, hitting 66,000 people this week, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scooped. A slight majority of them have no criminal records. ICE’s max capacity is currently 70,000. Sub-optimal: In Washington’s most closely followed culinary dispute, a jury acquitted Sean Dunn of misdemeanor assault for throwing a Subway sandwich at a federal immigration agent during Trump’s D.C. takeover, ABC’s Beatrice Peterson reports. “I believed I was protecting the rights of immigrants,” he told reporters after the verdict came down. CASES TO WATCH: There’s been another flurry of movement across several cases involving Trump’s political opponents or the president himself. Here’s the latest:
- Muriel Bowser: There’s been an ongoing federal corruption investigation into the D.C. mayor for months, NYT’s Alan Feuer and colleagues scooped. The probe stems from a 2023 work trip she took that was funded by Qatar, and is looking at “potential violations of bribery or campaign finance laws.” But it’s not clear how strong the case was, or how well it may be proceeding amid major upheaval and firings in DOJ’s public corruption unit. Bowser’s office said it was just “a business trip” with appropriate documentation. Caveat: One administration official told Axios’ Marc Caputo and Cuneyt Dil that Bowser isn’t under investigation.
- John Brennan: A mounting federal investigation into the former CIA director is now getting close to grand jury subpoenas, MSNBC’s Ken Dilanian reports. He’s denied wrongdoing.
- James Comey: DOJ appealed a judge’s unusual move to demand that prosecutors fork over grand jury materials to Comey’s defense team, saying the judge acted beyond his authority, per the Washington Examiner’s Kaelan Deese.
- Ann Selzer: A judge dismissed one of two lawsuits against the pollster and The Des Moines Register for publishing what turned out to be an inaccurate Iowa poll, per KCRG.
- Trump himself: The president scored a small victory in his drive to overturn his felony hush money conviction, as an appeals court said a lower-court judge needed to reexamine whether the case should be moved from state to federal court, per ABC.
UP NEXT? House Judiciary Republicans are moving toward a criminal referral of George Mason University President Gregory Washington to DOJ, WaPo’s Dan Rosenzweig-Ziff reports. The panel said he lied to Congress about the school’s diversity programs. Washington’s lawyer denied the unprecedented accusation and decried it as a “political lynching.” SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court’s shadow docket struck again as the conservative justices for now green-lit Trump’s policy to limit transgender people’s passport options, per the LA Times. HEADS UP: A Trump administration appointee who just stepped down from a top Justice Department post, Chad Mizelle, turned heads at a legal conference yesterday by calling for Congress to step up efforts to impeach judges who have blocked Trump policies, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein writes in. “What’s going to force the Supreme Court to do something is fundamentally political pressure. It’s going to be when Congress starts impeaching judges and saying … ‘You are now encroaching into our territory,’” Mizelle said during a panel discussion at the Federalist Society’s annual lawyers’ meeting in Washington. Mizelle’s impeachment battle cry followed a somewhat cryptic story he shared that appeared to involve an implicit threat his father once issued to put down a stray cat in the family’s yard. “What do I think DJT should do? He should stand up, and he’s already done this, and say, ‘Judges, I know how to deal with stray cats,’” said Mizelle, who served as acting associate AG and chief of staff to AG Pam Bondi before stepping down last month. (Mizelle’s wife, Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, is a Trump-appointed federal district court judge in Florida.)
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| | | | TRAIL MIX FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Talarico’s Texas two-step: A new internal poll for Texas state Rep. James Talarico finds the rising star surging in the Texas Senate Democratic primary against former Rep. Colin Allred, Adam reports. The poll, conducted by Impact Research from Oct. 23-29, among 836 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters in Texas, finds Talarico leading Allred by six percentage points, 48-42, with 9 percent undecided. But when voters are broken out by those who know both candidates, Talarico’s lead spikes. Talarico holds a 47-point edge, 71-24, over Allred among the nearly 500 voters who can ID both candidates. See the polling memo 2026 WATCH: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is jumping into the New York governor’s race today, setting up a showdown with Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2002, POLITICO’s Nick Reisman and Bill Mahoney scooped. The top Trump ally has repeatedly blasted Hochul in recent months, calling her “the worst governor in America” — and she’ll seek to make Mamdani a high-profile foil. DEMOCRACY WATCH: California AG Rob Bonta told POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney he’s concerned that Trump’s actions could threaten a fair and free midterm election next year — and he’s getting ready. “The attorney general also said his office has planned for extreme scenarios — from Trump deploying the National Guard near polling places in California cities to the potential to misuse the Postal Service to ‘undermine vote-by-mail ballots.’” THE PELOSI BACKSTORY: Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) decision not to run for reelection was so closely guarded that she filmed two versions of her announcement video — one for a reelection bid and the retirement announcement she ultimately posted, per POLITICO’s Dustin Gardiner and Nick Wu. In a valedictory piece, Pelosi wrote for The Atlantic about the current political moment: “Those of us who believe in liberty and dignity, goodness and generosity, must never give in to the forces arrayed against the things we hold dearest.” THE AUTOPSIES: After Democrats’ romp in Tuesday’s elections, Trump dismissed the affordability concerns that appeared to drive their victories, saying Democrats had pulled off a “con job,” POLITICO’s Irie Sentner reports. “We are the ones that have done great on affordability — they’ve done horribly on affordability,” Trump said. … In Virginia, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger’s historic win was bolstered by support from rural voters dissatisfied with Trump’s trade policies, marking a shift that national Democrats see as a potential blueprint for 2026, per POLITICO’s Samuel Benson.
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➡️ Sign up for West Wing Playbook | | | | | BEST OF THE REST TODAY AT 1600 PENN: Trump will welcome Orbán to the White House for an 11:45 a.m. bilateral lunch — and all eyes are on Trump to see whether he grants Hungary a carve-out from new Russian oil sanctions, POLITICO’s Diana Nerozzi and Eli Stokols preview. U.S. officials haven’t ruled it out. That would be a significant setback (especially symbolically) for the pressure campaign against Moscow as Ukraine works to repel its invasion. The White House says a number of other deals, spanning trade, defense and more, could also be announced. More from Kyiv: Despite Trump’s comments to the contrary, Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna told Bloomberg that Ukraine is still having “positive” discussions with the U.S. about trying to get long-range Tomahawk missiles. SPEAKING OF EXTRAORDINARY DIPLOMACY: “Trump Officials Accused of Bullying Tactics to Kill a Climate Measure,” by NYT’s Lisa Friedman and colleagues: “An ambassador from Asia was told that, if he voted in favor of the plan, his country’s sailors would no longer be allowed to disembark at American ports. Caribbean diplomats were told that they could be blacklisted from entering the United States. And Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, personally called officials in several countries to threaten financial penalties and other punishments if they continued to support the agreement to cut ship pollution.” LETTER FROM SAUDI ARABIA: POLITICO’s Sam Sutton reports from an investor conference in Riyadh, where “the rise of top-down state capitalism in both the United States and Saudi Arabia” was apparent. Sam finds a “sprawling labyrinth of five-star hotels, luxury stores and megasized real estate developments, a metropolis that soon might rival Abu Dhabi and Dubai as a glitzy destination for financiers and tourists. All this development was conceived and directed by a leader who wants to exact rapid and permanent changes to his country’s economy and culture. It’s no wonder the Trump family loves it here.” THE MAGA CIVIL WAR: As turmoil continues to roil the Heritage Foundation over Kevin Roberts’ response to Tucker Carlson’s interview with antisemite Nick Fuentes, the National Task Force to Combat Antisemitism severed ties with the think tank and said it will broaden its remit to include right-wing antisemitism, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch scooped. The growing MAGA fracture over Carlson, Fuentes and antisemitism has been particularly painful inside Heritage, where many staffers feel “deep frustration and loss of confidence in Roberts’ leadership,” CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Steve Contorno report.
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Learn more. | | | | THE WEEKEND AHEAD FRIDAY PROGRAMS … POLITICO “The Conversation”: New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill … James Blair. C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Ronna McDaniel and Donna Brazile … Terry Holt and Meghan Hays. PBS “Washington Week”: Leigh Ann Caldwell, David Ignatius, Mark Leibovich and Jeff Zeleny. SUNDAY SO FAR … CBS “Face the Nation”: Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger … New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill … Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. NBC “Meet the Press”: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) … Jon M. Chu. Panel: Ashley Etienne, Ryan Nobles, Marc Short and Amy Walter. CNN “State of the Union”: California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Panel: Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.), Bakari Sellers and Kristen Soltis Anderson. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: DNC Chair Ken Martin. Panel: Richard Fowler, Meridith McGraw, Hans Nichols and Mollie Hemingway. Sunday special: Karen Kingsbury. MSNBC “The Weekend”: Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) … Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) … David Hogg. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) … Malcolm Gladwell. Panel: Burgess Everett and David Swerdlick. ABC “This Week”: Panel: Donna Brazile, Chris Christie and Sarah Isgur.
| | | | Global Security is POLITICO’s new weekly briefing on the policies and industrial forces reshaping transatlantic defense. From Washington to Brussels and beyond, we track how decisions ripple across borders — redefining the future of security and industry. Sign up for the free preview edition. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | PLAYBOOK ARTS SECTION — “The Trump administration and Norman Rockwell’s family are battling over his legacy,” by WaPo’s Janay Kingsberry: “Descendants of the painter have accused the Department of Homeland Security of misrepresenting his beliefs.” OUT AND ABOUT — The Washington AI Network hosted a power breakfast yesterday at the House at 1229 on “Data Strategy in the Age of AI” with Tammy Haddad interviewing Cohesity CEO Sanjay Poonen. SPOTTED: Seval Oz, Karen Sessions, Senay Bulbul, Jake Denton, Nicoletta Giordani, Miles Johnson, Michael Halem, Kelly Fletcher, Patty Stolnacker Koch, David Chavern, John Rizzo, Marlin McFate, Jonathan Cousimano, Marie Baldassarre, Grace Brightbill, Michael Block, Liz Johnson, Ashley Callen and Sumi Somaskanda. — The American Association of People with Disabilities held its 30th-anniversary gala last night at the Waldorf Astoria with over 400 supporters from across the country. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.) all spoke (Simon via video), and Warren "Wawa" Snipe, a deaf rapper and artist, performed. SPOTTED: Maria Town, Tom Harkin, Andrew Holbrook, Taryn Williams, Veronica Villalobos, Maya Wiley, Mercy Botchway, Ted Kennedy Jr., John Kemp, Emily Voorde, Andy Imparato, and Rebecca and Patrick Cokley. TRANSITION — Max Ernst is now chief of staff for Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.). He previously worked for Rep. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.), and is a Katie Porter alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas) and Rick Allen (R-Ga.) … Michael Kratsios … Sheila Nix of KDH For the People … Lawrence O’Donnell … NBC’s Jen Friedman … Pat Devlin … Brad Woodhouse of Protect Our Care … Jose Diaz-Balart … POLITICO’s Elena Schneider, Sean Reilly and Alex Remington … The Bulwark’s Lauren Egan … Kate O’Connor Harper of Comcast … Donald Kohn … Brunswick Group’s Siobhan Gorman … Aanchal Sahay of Planned Parenthood … former Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (R-Minn.) … Caroline Tabler … former CIA Director David Petraeus … George Thompson of FleishmanHillard … Jeff Bjornstad … Allison Rivera of the National Grain and Feed Association … Liz Allen Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Jesse Watters’ name. It also incorrectly referenced a year when Republicans made gains in the midterms. It was 1994.
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