| | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Adam and POLITICO White House reporter Megan Messerly break down why Indiana resisted President Donald Trump’s redistricting pressure campaign.
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| Happy Friday. This is Adam Wren, filing today’s Playbook from the Indiana Statehouse. We made it to the end of the week. Get in touch. FRIDAY LISTEN: Bill Gates is this week’s guest on “The Conversation” with Dasha Burns, where the billionaire philanthropist discusses his efforts to curtail child deaths — a statistic that is poised to rise for the first time in 25 years — plus his decision to pull back on climate funding, job displacement by AI and what he thinks about RFK Jr. On cuts in foreign aid leading to more deaths and his conversations with administration officials: “Nobody wants to take responsibility for the tragedy that’s going on here. In my dialogue with President Trump, he clearly cares about these issues and wants to find a generous level for the spending so that the U.S. won’t be responsible for these big increases. So I’m hopeful that what we’ve seen this year, where there were sudden and massive cuts — you just can’t deny that’s led to lots of deaths.” On becoming a political boogeyman: “Well, I’d say it’s pretty fringe. Robert Kennedy wrote a book that says I kill millions of children and make billions of dollars on vaccines. It’s close to correct. I spend billions of dollars to save millions. … I am connected to vaccines. I plead guilty to being involved in that miracle. He’s kind of an outlier in terms of saying that I’m the villain behind the curtain.” Watch the full interview … Listen and subscribe … Read the Q&A WELCOME TO THE FAMILY — Playbook en Español: Last night at the POLITICO 28 Gala Dinner, CEO Goli Sheikholeslami announced a major expansion of POLITICO’s presence in Europe — including a Spanish-language Madrid Playbook launching in Spain, a daily podcast in Brussels and deepening our partnership with the Munich Security Conference. Read more In today’s Playbook … — Indiana Republicans stiff-arm Trump on a push to redraw state maps. — Where does the redistricting arms race stand now? — Is there a last-ditch maneuver to save the ACA subsidies?
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Republicans in Indiana, including GOP state Senate leader Rodric Bray, voted down a Trump-backed redistricting plan in the state. | Michael Conroy/AP Photo | INDIANA’S INDEPENDENT STREAK: The White House is waking up this morning to some brutal headlines and questions about whether President Donald Trump’s power over the GOP is waning after Indiana state lawmakers summarily rejected his redistricting push in the Hoosier State. The president’s political team long set up what turned into the failed, blowout of a 19-31 vote against his proposed map that would have gerrymandered two more safe red seats as a loyalty test. The answer they got is not the one they wanted. The results imperil the party’s chances of holding control of Congress next November. There’s a number of explanations from state senators about why they rejected redistricting in recent days, and many of them center on a defense of small-c conservatism and federalism. But it was also “the process” — their words, not ours — that rubbed them the wrong way. As a general rule, they do not like being bullied by Washington, no matter whether it’s by a Democrat or a Republican administration. The anonymous pipe bomb threats, swattings and I know where you live pizza deliveries bristled them and pushed them away from the White House’s position. As for the defeat? Trump in the Oval Office after the vote went down claimed that he “wasn’t working on it very hard.” And Speaker Mike Johnson claimed Trump did not mount a “major pressure campaign.” This is, objectively, not the case, as your Playbook author documented over the last four months of what was very much a consistent pressure campaign. In fact, Trump was individually calling state senators in the final hours before yesterday’s vote, according to multiple people briefed on the matter and comments from Republican senators. It’s worth pointing out two key items — both about that pressure campaign itself and a counter campaign that unfolded. For weeks, MAGA figures like DC Draino frequently speculated on X that Mike Pence, the former VP and Indiana governor, was pulling the strings on the anti-redistricting effort. But it was another former Indiana governor — Mitch Daniels, who Trump derided on Truth Social this week — who was actually fielding calls behind the scenes. While he didn’t make calls, he did take them from senators as they worked through their decisions, he told Playbook. “I’m just very proud of the gumption that a lot of our folks showed,” said Daniels, who came out early against redistricting. “They were under, as you can see, really ferocious pressure.” All of this points to fissures that still exist between MAGA and the traditional GOP that could be exposed again ahead of 2028. The other pressure point: Did the White House and Trump really threaten withholding federal funding from Indiana, as Heritage Action suggested in an X post ahead of the vote? Here’s what Playbook can tell you: Two senior White House officials said that Trump’s team had not spoken with Heritage Action, and that the president had not made such threats. Last night, though, Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith — a MAGA and redistricting supporter — undercut those claims. First, he tweeted it out: “The Trump admin was VERY clear about this. They told many lawmakers, cabinet members and the Gov and I that this would happen,” he posted at 9:33 p.m. Playbook followed up by text. Was he saying the Trump team did threaten federal funding? “Yes these conversations happened,” Beckwith said. “But it’s not a threat. It’s an honest conversation about who does the WH want to partner with. There are 49 other states competing for all kinds of projects. Indiana told the WH today they don’t want to be a good partner to the Trump Admin and I suspect the WH will look to partner with other states before us.” But did they say here are the projects you could lose out on if you don’t deliver? “Yes,” Beckwith said. “My conversation was specifically around the USDA Hub that we were potentially getting. That could be a partnership that we as Hoosiers could no longer see.” The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Explore the impact in communities like Altoona. | | | | THE MIDTERM MAP SCORECARD ZOOMING OUT: The White House has taken a view that any of the seats gained before the midterms actually start are just “gravy,” one ally told us yesterday. But we picked up on a defiant mood, even as they realized Indiana would be a setback. They’re looking elsewhere. So let’s take stock of the redistricting landscape beyond the Hoosier State, with the help of POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro. So far, six states have new maps in place: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Utah. In the maximalist scenario — each party picks up every seat that has tilted in their favor — Republicans are currently +3 from the 2024 baseline. California and Texas wash each other out at five seats each, while Utah’s court-ordered redraw that nets Democrats one seat cancels out the GOP pickup in North Carolina, leaving the GOP with two seats out of Ohio and one in Missouri. But that’s not how it will work in the real world. Democrats, for example, insist that the two seats that got redder in the Buckeye State are still very much in play. And sweeping all five seats is not a gimme for Dems in California or Republicans in Texas. Republicans are still hoping on an appeal in Utah to negate that court-ordered map, while Democrats in Missouri just submitted hundreds of thousands of signatures for a ballot referendum they hope will freeze out the new map. So even in the states that are settled, nothing is actually settled. Where Republicans are looking: The biggest GOP target on the board is Florida, where Republicans think they could squeeze out an additional three to five seats for the midterms. One state leader recently told our ace in Tallahassee, Gary Fineout, that he hasn’t had any contact with the White House about the push, but that he’s eager to move ahead. Even so, there’s disagreement among Sunshine State Republicans on when to act. Where Democrats are looking: Democrats’ biggest prize is Virginia. Legislative leaders have teased the possibility of a 10-1 map, which would represent a big four-seat swing. The state House speaker told our colleague Brakkton Booker in Richmond this week that he was confident the party would have “an opportunity” to “level the playing field.” There’s a smattering of states that should remain on your radar, like Maryland and Illinois — and keep an eye on Republicans in Kentucky and Kansas, where Democratic governors complicate the best-laid plans of Republican legislators. The true wildcard, however, is the Supreme Court. Looming over all of this is the pending decision in Louisiana v. Callais, a case that looks to scrap a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, which conservatives on the court seemed inclined to at least weaken during oral arguments in October. If the court goes down that route, it could lead to the obliteration of majority Black, Latino and Asian districts in the name of partisan redraws — an advantage mapmakers would look to seize on. Some Republicans are already preparing for that ruling, with Louisiana moving back its primary in anticipation and some South Carolina Republicans champing at the bit to redraw. Democratic groups forecasted a 19-seat pickup for the GOP should the Voting Rights Act be gutted. But we still don’t know when the court will issue its decision — or what exactly they’ll do. The conservative majority has before seemed ready to strike down the VRA, only for Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh to join the liberals. And any decision will launch a torrent of legislation that could kick sand in the gears, at least for 2026. If you’re feeling exhausted by the redistricting fight: Take a quick nap. It’s a long road ahead.
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| | | | BILL OF HEALTH FACING THE CLIFF: Congress is staring down a health care cliff that threatens to leave millions of Americans facing steep spikes in health insurance premiums. And despite some last-ditch efforts to put together a quick-fix patch, the expectation is that a week from today lawmakers will leave for the holiday break with no solution. The last best hope for a solution rests in talks that a group of moderate House Republicans are having with GOP leaders. They hope to set up an amendment vote to add an extension to a health care package that’s expected to hit the floor next week, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. Centrists in the party are desperate for something to move, but it’s unclear if Republican leaders are sold on the plan as they work out whether it would garner support from other members of the conference. Absent that route, the subsidies will expire and the calendar will turn over before lawmakers can begin to pick up the pieces again, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney writes, capturing the realization spreading across the Capitol. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who voted for both of the party-line proposals that failed yesterday, in a statement conceded that talks would likely fall to January. Asked if there was a way to save the subsidies, Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said: “I honestly don’t know.” The real-world impact: According to early enrollment data, people across several states “appear to be walking away from Affordable Care Act coverage or switching to cheaper plans for 2026 compared to this time last year,” NBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr. reports. A snapshot: In Pennsylvania, a critical swing state, monthly premiums could jump more than 100 percent.” THE GREENE LIGHT: As firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) prepares to take her leave from Congress in early January, she’s thinking about “one last act of defiance: a longshot bid to topple Speaker Mike Johnson,” MS NOW’s Mychael Schnell reports. Greene has been “working behind the scenes to gauge whether there’s support for a motion to vacate the chair,” a gambit that requires nine Republicans to trigger a vote. Republicans who spoke to MS NOW believed it was unlikely to move forward, and Greene said the story was “not true.”
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| | | | WAR AND PEACE UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN: As the world awaits the next sign of progress toward a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, the latest proposal out of Ukraine appeared to have a certain audience of one in mind. The latest version of the plan proposes a demilitarized “free economic zone” in the Donbas region, where American business interests could operate — an apparent attempt to bring Trump on board, POLITICO’s Eli Stokols, Jamie Dettmer and Paul McLeary report. Where does everyone stand? Trump hasn’t struck an optimistic tone on the latest proposal, expressing skepticism that a weekend meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders would be worth attending. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated that U.S. officials would only attend if Trump believes there’s a real chance for a peace deal to move forward, per Reuters. And while Zelenskyy told reporters he had “constructive” conversations about security guarantees with U.S. officials, people familiar with the latest proposal don’t expect that Russia would go for it. TRANSATLANTICISM: In Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned Trump to stay out of European democracy in an interview with POLITICO for the POLITICO 28 gala, POLITICO’s Ketrin Jochecová reports. “The Commission chief said she has always had ‘a very good working relationship’ with U.S. presidents, and ‘this is also the case today.’ However, she stressed that Europe should focus on itself rather than making comparisons with others.” The comments come days after Trump denounced Europe as a “decaying” group of nations led by “weak” people in a White House interview with POLITICO. As for the peace negotiations for Ukraine, von der Leyen said it’s “extremely important” that the agreement “does not sow the seeds for the next conflict. … Here, the security guarantees play an enormous role.” Read the full Q&A TANKER TENSION: The U.S. moved to seize a Venezuelan oil tanker this week and is preparing to intercept more, escalating pressure on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Reuters’ Jonathan Saul and colleagues scooped. Shipments totaling nearly 6 million barrels were paused as tankers waited off the coast, while Caracas called the action “piracy.” At the same time, the U.S. further turned the screws on Maduro, sanctioning members of his family and the Venezuelan oil industry, NYT’s Nicholas Nehama and colleagues report. Rocking the boat: House Republicans are stepping back from investigating the deadly “double-tap” boat strike in Venezuela, but the Senate isn’t letting go, POLITICO’s Joe Gould and Leo Shane III report. Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker is demanding full access to the video and legal justifications for the operation, while Democrats push for public release.
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Explore the impact in communities like Altoona. | | | | BEST OF THE REST NEWSOM’S STAR TURN: California Gov. Gavin Newsom was the star of the show as the DNC opened its winter meeting in Los Angeles yesterday, marking just the latest sign of the likely 2028 presidential candidate’s influence, according to interviews with more than 20 DNC members, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason and Liam Dillon report from LA. Though “there was lingering skepticism in the crowd about Newsom’s durability in 2028, especially in a general election … the spectacle of his drop-in appearance injected an aura of celebrity into an otherwise-staid opening day, where other potential 2028 hopefuls had a minimal footprint.” TWO-STRIKE COUNT: The Justice Department yesterday failed to re-indict New York AG Letitia James, marking the second time it has swung and missed on the effort in two weeks, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. A grand jury in Alexandria rejected prosecutors’ latest attempt to revive the mortgage fraud case, with James’ lawyer Abbe Lowell saying that any further attempts would amount to “a mockery of our system of justice.” Hailing Halligan: The White House quietly moved to submit Lindsey Halligan for Senate confirmation as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, MS NOW’s Carol Leonnig and colleagues report. “It is unclear whether, despite the White House’s renewed focus, Halligan’s nomination will be voted upon by the Senate Judiciary Committee, much less the full Senate.” Her nomination is subject to the blue slip process, which could block her from advancing. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: Trump issued a new executive order to preempt state AI laws, mobilizing the federal government to fight state limits on the industry, POLITICO’s Gabby Miller and Brendan Bordelon report. Though it drew praise from the tech industry, critics were quick to rebuke it, “including lawmakers in both parties who say the federal government is not doing enough to address the dangers that AI poses.” HIGH TIMES: Trump is expected to mount a new push to ease federal restrictions on marijuana, WaPo’s Jacob Bogage and colleagues report. “The move would not legalize or decriminalize marijuana, but it would ease barriers to research and boost the bottom lines of legal businesses.” THE WEEKEND AHEAD FRIDAY PROGRAMS … POLITICO “The Conversation”: Bill Gates. C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Marc Short and Adrienne Elrod. PBS “Washington Week”: Anne Applebaum, Susan Glasser, Amna Nawaz and Vivian Salama. SUNDAY SO FAR … NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) … Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) … Steve Kornacki. Panel: Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin, Amna Nawaz and Neera Tanden. FOX “Fox News Sunday,” guest-anchored by Jacqui Heinrich: Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) … Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) … Ukrainian Ambassador Olga Stefanishyna. Panel: Olivia Beavers, Doug Heye, Josh Kraushaar and Juan Williams. Sunday special: Wreaths Across America. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer … Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Lee Smith. ABC “This Week”: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). Panel: Donna Brazile, Danielle Alvarez, Susan Glasser and Leigh Ann Caldwell. CBS “Face the Nation”: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Panel: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), David Urban, Ashley Etienne and Scott Jennings. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Panel: George Will, Julie Mason and Franco Ordoñez.
| | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | IN MEMORIAM — “R. Bruce Dold, Chicago Tribune Publisher and Pulitzer Winner, Dies at 70,” by NYT’s Trip Gabriel: “As head of the editorial page, he encouraged The Tribune’s support of Barack Obama, resulting in the paper’s first endorsement of a Democrat running for the White House.” TAKE IT TO THE BANK — The U.S. Mint has “unveiled the designs for coins commemorating the 250th anniversary of American independence next year. They depict the founding documents and the Revolutionary War, but so far, not President Donald Trump, despite a push among some of his allies to get his face on a coin,” per AP’s Jonathan Cooper. OUT AND ABOUT — Coinbase hosted its holiday party last night at The Wharf in the Dockmaster Building. SPOTTED: Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Cleo Fields (D-La.) and Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), Wiley Nickel, David Urban, John Anzalone, Brian Nieves, Jordan Wood, Marco Davis, Paul Grewal, Faryar Shirzad, Kara Calvert, Robin Cook, Nick Carr and Joyce Kazadi. — German Ambassador Jens Hanefeld hosted a holiday reception in the style of a German Christmas market at his residence yesterday. SPOTTED: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas) and Deborah Ross (D-N.C.), Monica Crowley, USTR Jamieson Greer, Stephen Vaden, Jeffrey Kessler, Sean Cairncross, Vince Haley, Andy Baker, Bill McBride, Mary Brady, Charles McLaughlin, Nick Schifrin, Kylie Atwood, Norwegian Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, Singaporean Ambassador Lui Tuck Yew, Danish Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer and Maltese Ambassador Godfrey Xuereb. — SPOTTED at the annual Feldman Strategies holiday happy hour at Stoney’s last night: Jim Acosta, David Turner, Ken Thomas, Betsy Klein and Jeff Solnet, Marshall Cohen, Francesca Chambers, Will Weissert, Aamer Madhani, Hannah Knowles, Lisa Kashinsky, Holly Otterbein, Alice Miranda Ollstein, Greg Regan, Dante Harris, Keturah Johnson, Andrew Crook, Taylor Garland, Andrew Huddleston, Brittany Holder, Eric Heggie, Shin Inouye, Natalie Gould, Ammar Moussa, Emily Wilkins, Dustin Wahl, Nathan Janda, Emma Thomas, Andrew Feldman, Julian Mulvey and Margie Omero. — InterDigital held its annual holiday reception last night at French Ambassador Laurent Bili’s residence, where Liren Chen and Lionel Oisel spoke. SPOTTED: Robert Stien, Blair Watters, Samantha Breslin, Julia Mattis, Heather McHugh, Peter-Anthony Pappas, James Lloyd, Chris Israel, Laura Peter, Julie Philp, Taylor Reaves, Chris Shipp, Coke Stewart, Bradley Watts, Larry Duncan, Jake Perry and Manus Cooney. — SPOTTED at the the Edison Electric Institute’s annual media reception last night: Hans Nichols, Jennifer Dlouhy, Jean Chemnick, Carlos Anchondo, Amelia Davidson, Andy Picon, Nico Portuondo, Miranda Wilson, Kelsey Brugger, Tim Cama, Ian Stevenson, Catherine Boudreau, Kelsey Tamborrino, Caitlin Oprysko, Tom Tiernan, Karin Rives, Chris Conte, Rachel Frazin, Juliet Eilperin, Jake Spring, Matthew Torres, Riley Cook, Rob Hatley and Neal Kirby. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — John Howes Jr. is launching MAGIS LGA, a legal and government affairs firm, with other services also including policy analysis, strategic comms, coalition building and a focus on helping Lithuanian companies in D.C. He’s a tech and telecom lawyer who previously worked at the Competitive Carriers Association and is a Marcy Kaptur alum. TRANSITIONS — Avoq is adding Jeff Smokler as partner and public affairs practice lead and Yoni Gedan as partner and audience intelligence and performance practice lead. Smokler most recently worked at Gravie. Gedan most recently worked at LSG. … Ernesto Rivera Umpierre is now director of the energy policy program and special aide to the secretary at Puerto Rico’s Department of Commerce, as well as chair of the board of trustees for the Puerto Rico Green Energy Trust. Marisol Bonnet and Eric Britton are also now at PRGET. All three previously worked in the U.S. Energy Department’s Grid Deployment Office. … … Advancing American Freedom is adding Jonathan Moy as major gift officer and Madeline Alfonso as digital assistant, and moving Jonah Wendt to comms director. Moy previously worked at the Heritage Foundation. Alfonso previously worked for Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas). … Jacolby Evans is joining VoteNexus as fundraising and outreach director. He previously worked for Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) campaign. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Cassidy Hutchinson … Christian Martinez of the NRCC … Lanny Davis … Chris Plante … POLITICO’s Taylor Miller Thomas and Sonia Fernandes … Charli Huddleston of the Brunswick Group … Bret Wincup … Jeff Burton … Google’s José Castañeda … FirstEnergy’s Nick Pearson … Larry Duncan of Monument Advocacy … Fox Business’ Liz Claman … former Reps. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) … Rebecca Neale Hampson … Jamie Brown … Todd Bertoson of Capitol Hill Policy Group … Danny Russel … Tanner Hishta … Riley Nelson of the Meridian International Center … AP’s Seth Borenstein … Morgan Brummund … David Pasch … HB Strategies’ Keri Ann Hayes, Noel Torpey and Courtney Ellis … BGR Group’s Bob Wood … Peter Fenn … Becky Perlow … Tina-Maria Giordano Henry … Dawn Laguens Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. 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